Jim Matheson defends Kevin Lowe - March 01, 2007

Jim Matheson gives Kevin Lowe all the benefit of doubt in a Q and A with fans. Here's to another 8 years of mediocrity!

Fans want to know why Edmonton GM didn't buck up or move others like Petr Sykora at trade deadline
Jim Matheson, The Edmonton Journal
Published: Thursday, March 01, 2007

Journal Hall of Fame hockey writer Jim Matheson answers your questions on the NHL ...

- - -

Q Why weren't the Oilers willing or able to pay Ryan Smyth the $5 million US to $5.5 million he was asking for? Was their best player not deemed worth it? It seems puzzling that a team in Calgary can afford $7 million for Jarome Iginla, the face of their franchise, plus $5 million-plus for Alex Tanguay and to pay a premium for players like Miikka Kiprusoff. Also the trade for Smyth seems to leave us with a lot of prospects at forward and not much else. Given that the Oilers started the year with a lot of forward depth and haven't scored enough goals because of lack of offence from the defence, is this wise?

(Sam Hillier, Irvine, Calif.)

A GM Kevin Lowe is taking major heat for not bucking up for Smyth, but I think he went very hard to sign their most popular player. If it was $5.5 million a year over five years, when Smyth would be 36 years old at the end of it, that's a fair chunk of change, folks. That's more than Simon Gagne's getting in Philadelphia, and he, like Smyth, is their best player, also four years younger. They were willing to give Smyth a fifth year when they really only wanted to give him four. It's true Calgary signed Iginla for $7 million, but Iggy was coming off a runner-up finish for the Hart trophy and a 50-goal season and had all the leverage. Ask yourself this question: If the

Oilers had still kept working on trying to sign Smyth past Tuesday's deadline and they missed the playoffs and he still walked on July 1 to, say, the New York Rangers, where Glen Sather runs the store, or to the Toronto Maple Leafs, where he can play on Mats Sundin's line, and the Oilers got ZERO for Smyth, how would you feel? It's true they're deep at forward now with prospects (Ryan O'Marra, Robert Nilsson, Andrew Cogliano and Rob Schremp), but they still need an experienced puck-moving defenceman, although Tom Gilbert and U.S. junior team captain Taylor Chorney, who may leave school, have big promise. Can they sign a veteran D-man over the summer? I suspect, they'll be in the running for Kimmo Timonen, bearing in mind the Philadelphia Flyers will make a big push for him, too.

Q Why didn't the Oilers trade Petr Sykora at the deadline? He's unrestricted, he's won a Stanley Cup (in New Jersey) and, while he doesn't bring the physical presence that Bill Guerin or Keith Tkachuk do, he has better numbers this season than both of them. And they fetched a nice price from the San Jose Sharks and Atlanta Thrashers.

(Davin Day, Mannville)

A They probably did pitch Sykora to teams, but he doesn't have the profile Guerin and Tkachuk have, plus he's more one-dimensional (a big shooter). The Thrashers were also looking more at Tkachuk as a centre where he'd been playing in St. Louis. In Guerin's case, the Sharks knew he'd played some with Joe Thornton in his Boston days, so there was a fit there. Detroit was looking for a top-six forward, but an aggressive one. Sykora doesn't fit that bill. While Sykora leads the Oilers in scoring, his play has tailed off considerably, too, the last while. He had 28 points in his first 28 games, but just 21 in the last 36 games.

Smyth Wanted a Long Term Deal in the Summer of 2005

Following up on my previous post, I digged out a gem:

While the link to the article isn't available any longer, a Jim Matheson article was found copied and pasted here

This is where, Kevin Lowe originally blew it, Smyth (29) in his prime at that point. At that point, you could offer him a 5 year deal and not worry about whether he'd be ineffective in years 4 and 5 of the contract. In other words, it would be akin to signing him to a 3 year contract in the Summer of 2007.

Veteran prefers long-term contract with locals to taking more cash on open market in 2006

Jim Matheson
The Edmonton Journal

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

EDMONTON - Oilers winger Ryan Smyth wants to have the security of a long-term contract, but he doesn't know whether he'd take a pay cut to stay in River City.

"Everybody knows I've bled Oiler blue and I'm happy playing in front of my family. I was was born and raised in Alberta," said Smyth, a native of Jasper.

"But I don't want to sell myself short. I just want fair market value."

Smyth, who turns 30 next February, has only played for one NHL team since the Oilers drafted him sixth overall in the 1994 entry draft. He has played 642 games -- No. 11 on the Oilers' most games played list. He's sixth in goals (198 ), eighth in points (430), and fifth in game-winners (32).

After seeing Bobby Holik depart the New Jersey Devils and get $4.25 million US to play with the Atlanta Thrashers and Paul Kariya leave the Colorado Avalanche for the Nashville Predators for $4.5 million this summer, Smyth could command $4 million on the open market next summer. He can become an unrestricted free-agent if he decides to sign the Oilers' one-year, $2.7-million US qualifying offer.

But, deep down, Smyth would rather have at least a three-year Oiler contract in his pocket.

"You're seeing a lot of different addresses with players this summer,' said Smyth, "but I'm pushing for a long-term contract here. They've talked about signing a one-year contract and negotiating on a longer deal during the season, but I'd rather not do that. It's a distraction.

"It's a team game when the season starts."

NHL clubs can't negotiate until Jan. 1 after players sign qualifying offers.

Smyth could eventually be history if he only signs the qualifying offer, however, but in his heart he doesn't want to leave.

"I've always been an Oiler and I can see our team being more than just a team that hopefully can make the playoffs.

"But I can see us going to a whole new level here," said Smyth. "I guess there's pressure on both sides. I can be unrestricted and that's a unique situation for a player. But I've enjoyed every moment as an Oiler. I'd like a long-term contract, I'd like the security for myself and my family.

"I think security is good for a player."

Smyth knows the clock's ticking, with training camp opening in two weeks.

"Last time I didn't have a contract going into camp, I took the physical, then (Oilers GM) Kevin Lowe said he wasn't going to let me skate without a contract," said Smyth.

"I'm hopeful something will get done before then."

Oiler assistant GM Scott Howson said Smyth "will be at camp. We have no indication from him that he won't sign the one-year deal before camp if we can't get a long-term contract done."

Smyth is one of the few high-profile Group 2 free agents who are unsigned with training camps just around the corner. Most players have taken the one-year qualifying offers rather than drag things out.

But few will be unrestricted next July.

Smyth, who led the Oilers with 59 points in 2003-2004 and is their first-line left-winger, has a feeling what he's worth.

In the eyes of the Oilers, however, that could be in the low.It wouldn't look good if the Oilers hosed Smyth, the player who has been their heart and soul for years, and then he takes the one year deal and signs with another team next season.

The Smyth Saga

Nobody would be discussing Ryan Smyth if the Edmonton Oilers were winning hockey games.

But, they aren't.

Here's my version of events that transpired over the course of the year

SUMMER 2005
- Smyth is the last Oiler RFA to be signed. Smyth reportedly wants a long term deal, but finally settles for a 2 year, 7M deal, making him a free agent on July 1, 2007.

SUMMER 2006:
- Pisani, Roloson, Hemsky, Horcoff, Stoll, Lupul - all free agents (UFA and RFA) sign lucrative deals at premium money.
- Lowe mentions he wants to work on extentions Smyth, Moreau, and Staios
- Lowe calls Smyth the "Steve Yzerman" of the Oilers, publicly stating his desire to keep him around.

FALL 2006
- Moreau extended for 4 years
- Smyth negotiations not working out at training camp. The Oilers play hardball. Dan Barnes reports that Smyth was offered a 3 year, 12.0M deal (4.0M/year). Smyth reportedly wants longer terms.

Don Meehan was quoted

Meehan said when negotiations broke off during the summer, the Oilers told him there would be no further negotiations until after July 1, when Smyth became an unrestricted free agent.

"We had the understanding then, when they made an offer, that if we didn't take it, they wouldn't talk to us until the end of the year.

"In the last two months they asked to restart talks and we were happy to engage."

- Staios extended for 4 years. Smyth cleary frustrated in an interview with CHED, mentions that he "won't be a pushover this time" One can assert he wanted his fair share of pie, watching all the other guys down the list get long term contracts at premium money.

WINTER 2007
- Smyth is having a fantastic season which forces Lowe to re-open negotiations.
- Dan Barnes weighs in with his opinion
- Lowe negotiates through the press by stating, "We've offered him a deal longer than 3 years and less than 7 years in length." LINK
- Other quotes indicate putting some pressure on Smyth's camp:

“We’ve indicated a preference to keep Ryan here long-term. And publicly, Ryan said he’d like to be here long term.”

- Smyth shoots back in the media, visibly frustrated, mentioning it's a distraction with the team in the playoff hunt, which is why he wanted a deal done back in the summer.
- Reportedly $100,000/year apart on a contract (27.5M vs 27.0M), which Smyth denied later. Reportedly, Smyth offered to purchase a luxury suite at $100,000/year to make up the difference. Kevin Lowe doesn't budge. Smyth is traded for 1st round draft pick in 2007, Robert Nilsson, and Ryan O'Marra. An emotional speech at Edmonton International Airport surfaces.
- Lowe defends the trade. Mentions it was not for financial purposes. On HNIC, argues that "Smyth is a very good player, but not elite. There will be room in Edmonton for a 7-8M player"
- Patrick LaForge and Cal Nichols defend Kevin Lowe. Cal remarks that a "100,000 isn't that big of a difference when you consider the Alberta tax advantages."

SUMMER 2007
- Lowe finds it difficult to find a trade partner and an Unrestricted Free Agent willing to play for the Oilers, who won only 1 game in the final 20.
- Lowe calls Smyth agent; doesn't receive a return call
- Lowe exclaims, "If I had only known the cap was going to go up, I may have done things differently RE: Smyth." The edjumacated hockey fan knows that's, as Wayne Gretzky once uttered, "a crock of crap" considering every club received updated league documents throughout the year and was aware the cap was going to go up.
- Lowe desperately seeks a LW replacement. Shooting blanks in the UFA market, and frustrated, he resorts to sending RFA offersheets to Vanek and Penner
- Lowe signs Souray at the same money reportedly offered to Smyth at the trade deadline (5.4M AVG for 5 years), possibly for PR purposes and direct orders from the EIG who are involved in a saga of their own with Daryl Katz.

WINTER 2008
- Katz takes over ownership of the Edmonton Oilers. Lowe is quoted [From mc79hockey.com]:

The question was, basically, how could a single ownership, in this case Darryl Katz, possibly…what possibly could be different from the existing structure of the ownership. I think, I said, just quicker decisions on perhaps something like cap or maybe on deals, being able to pull the trigger a little bit quicker. I gave Ryan as an example because we didn’t know that we were going to be a cap team until into the summer. I said, if I had to to think of anything, maybe that would have made a difference, maybe we would have been able to get that deal done sooner and not been trying to get it done in the last couple weeks leading into the trade deadline. That might have made some of the difference. I’m not suggesting that I’m disappointed one way or the other in whether we did the deal or not. That’s going to prove itself one way or another over time, whether it was a good deal or not. I don’t want people to think that I’m going to start poking holes in the previous structure. I’m just saying, they asked for an example and there’s an example.

- This of course, contradicts Lowe's comments from trade deadline 2007. Edmonton's mainstream media caught napping
-

"Today we turned a page for sure – but this is not as much about the Oilers today, but what we continue to do as part of an overall plan," said general manager Kevin Lowe. "I want to be very clear that making this trade today is a hockey decision. It was not financial."

- More from Lowe

"I certainly wasn't out there shopping him," Oilers general manager Kevin Lowe said. "But we had to be prepared, in the sense that something like this could happen."
"I always thought we would get a deal done," Lowe said. "And really, until recently when, in our minds, we really stepped up, thought that maybe it's not so obvious, maybe it's not so easy."

"I'm surprised actually, given what Ryan is to the community and what he has been to the franchise," said Don Meehan, Smyth's agent. "But I understand that, with all due respect, they have the ability to make these decisions and that's what management has to do in these circumstances."

Meehan said both he and the Oilers tried to find some common financial ground, but could not.

"Both sides compromised throughout this process," Meehan said. "But not to the degree where we both felt comfortable that we could come to a deal."

"It was really down to the 11th hour where we realized, financially, it wasn't going to get done," Lowe said.

Mindful of how fans reacted to Edmonton trading Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier and Chris Pronger, Lowe acknowledged that Smyth's departure will likely incite a similar backlash.

"I'm very concerned," Lowe said. "I've thought about it for months.

"I've been on the job for 6-7 years. But this has been the most difficult one."

"Ryan has meant so much to this organization — as did some of the players in the past," Lowe continued. "So we have to factor those things in.

"We know that's a big part of it. He was a big fan favourite and it made the decision that much more difficult.

"We're not insensitive to our fans, by any stretch. But in the same breath, we have to make decisions we think can bolster the team and help it eventually win.

"We're not a better team with Ryan gone, no question. But in the very near future, we'll be a better team."

"We've acquired some very good young assets," Lowe said. "Combined with the ones we already have that are gaining experience, we really like our overall depth.

"The unfortunate part is Ryan Smyth's not a part of it."

- Patrick LaForge weighs in

Oilers President and CEO, Patrick LaForge asked that fans remain objective when considering the deal, "while on the one hand some Oilers fans might be distressed that this trade was made today, I want those same fans to be assured that the Oilers will use these excellent young players and our own deep pool of young talent in a new plan for this team."

"This was about the Oilers staying true to a plan. I know our hockey strategy is sound," said LaForge.

- PunjabiOil meets Don Meehan, Smyth's agent, at the CHL/NHL Top Prospects game and straight up, asks him what happened with Smyth. The response was, "Oh, it's a very long, long story." He's also fed a bone "Oh, players love to play in Edmonton!"

I believe until the Edmonton Oilers start winning hockey games, Ryan Smyth will be continuously a hot topic.

For good reason.

FREE 60 days of National Post newspaper delivery

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No credit card required. No hassle. I got my first issue today - I got it for the Financial Post section. The Sports section is pretty bland - save a Mark Spector article every now and then.

Enjoy!

Sail on, Christy Chorley

William Houston of the Globe and Mail discusses The Score's woes.

Rumblings at The Score

Is the for sale sign back on Score Media?

Rumoured to be on the block for years, recent developments have TV watchers wondering if ownership of the all-sports cable channel is slashing costs in preparation for a sale.

Last week, anchor Greg Sansone, promoted to management before Christmas after several senior producers left the company, called reporters at the Score's Canadian bureaus country from Phoenix, where he was covering the Super Bowl.

The message, which seemed to be urgent, was: Be prepared to lose your jobs. Toronto-based Score is eliminating bureau reporters.

In Vancouver, Sara Orlesky is already gone. She joined TSN several weeks ago, and has not been replaced.

Additional cost-cutting measures have included the replacement of programming with simulcasts of content on the Score's Hardcore channel on Sirius Satellite Radio.

The Score will continue to use video from contracted camera technicians in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal, but there isn't likely to be any reporting.

CanWest Global has a 26.5-per-cent stake in Score Media. Yesterday, the Score began filing sports reports to Global News Ontario, which no longer has a sports department. Rogers Sportsnet had been providing sports content to Global.

YK Oil is back

In case you missed it, YK Oil returned in the past weeks after a 6 month hiatus.

LINK TO WELL CONSTRUCTED THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS

Stadium (Arena) Promises Never Pay

Rick Eckstein, professor of sociology, tackles on the sociological aspect of stadium lobbying.

Why, then, given the overwhelming academic research challenging stadium-centered economic development do political leaders (if not average citizens) still support such projects? In a just-released article in the Journal of Sport and Social Issues, my colleagues and I studied media coverage of 23 publicly financed stadium initiatives in 16 different cities, including Philadelphia. We found that the mainstream media in most of these cities is noticeably biased toward supporting publicly financed stadiums, which has a significant impact on the initiatives' success.

This bias usually takes the form of uncritically parroting stadium proponents' economic and social promises, quoting stadium supporters far more frequently than stadium opponents, overlooking the numerous objective academic studies on the topic, and failing to independently examine the multitude of failed stadium-centered promises throughout the country, especially those in oft-cited "success cities" such as Denver and Cleveland.

To read more on this article, click here

He has a point.

*Credit - Sports Economist (link on the sidebar) for providing the story

NHL's Most Valuable Player (Hart Trophy)

The guy is good.

Honestly.

Nikolas Lidstrom, soon to be 38, is the league's best defenseman. For the first time in his career, he will be considered for the MVP award.

In 52 games this season, he's amassed 6 goals, 43 assists (3rd most in the league), 49 points and +43 rating. Just 28 PIM and logging up 27:13 TOI/game. Did I mention +43?

+43!

I would not only argue he's helping his team win hockey games (that is an understatement), but also a big reason why Chris Osgood is boasting a career high .925 SV% (.907 Career avg).

Of course he'll be in tough competition. Daniel Alfredsson is having a career year at 35. Edmonton boy, Jarome Iginla is having an outstanding season and the Flames haven't suffered from Mikka Kiprusoff's poor goaltending in the standings. Joe Thornton is carrying the San Jose Sharks. Ovechkin is making a strong case in Washington.

I don't like the fact that LeCavalier and Kovalchuk are getting consideration. "Buzz Penguin" from HF crunched the numbers and discovered this:

LeCavalier (+3) has a 1.75 PPG against teams in the SE division, and a 1.03 PPG against non-division opponents

Kovalchuk (-15) has a 1.94 PPG against teams in the SE division, and a 0.90 PPG against non-division opponents

Ovechkin (+10) has a 1.22 PPG against teams in the SE division, and a 1.33 PPG against non-division opponents

All good players, but it's clear that LeCavalier and Kovalchuk are reaping the benefits of playing against poor defenses and poor goaltenders. Of course some of these SE division teams should be auctioning off guys like Prospal, Whitney, Stillman, etc. in the case they are overvalued on the trade market, in order to address team needs.

Back to Lidstrom - he's my choice. The guy quietly gets results year after year without much press.

The Hart Memorial Trophy is an annual award given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Nikolas Lidstrom is valuable to his team in the sense that he helps the Detroit Red Wings win hockey games.

And they win.

Alot.

Steve Yzerman Duped

A story of Steve Yzerman tricked over a 5 year period

ESPN EXCLUSIVE - * LINK FIXED *

Oilers Media Spin

Perfect example here.

Hilarious. Great site. I recommend reading some other entries on that site.

Trivia Time

Guess who this *active* player is?

16 Years Old: 57GP 39G 59A 98PTS - 1.72PPG
17 Years Old: 60GP 27G 52A 79PTS - 1.32PPG
18 Years Old: 39GP 24G 23A 47PTS - 1.21PPG

Unreal. Just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game Review

On the ice, Steve Stamkos stood out. Big guy. The team that wins the lottery will have a solid player to build around.

Staal was slow-footed.

and...

That's enough discussion of the game.

The real highlight of the night was talking to various NHL personnels. I got my game ticket signed by Steve Yzerman and shook his hand. I talked to Don Meehan - very friendly guy who approached the fans. I asked him about what happened with the Ryan Smyth negotiations. Obviously he wasn't going to spill it out, but he told me, "Ohh, it's a very long story." Daryl Sutter was there in his leather jacket, talking to Meehan during the 2nd intermission. I caught Sutter at one point shaking his head. They were also sitting together during the game. Phaneuf & Huselius negotiations? One of my friends met Glen Sather - got a pic taken with him. We then caught Scott Howson - nice, friendly guy. I asked him whether they will extend Jan Hedja. He hesitated, then responded, ''Ummm maybe...most likely." I asked him if he'd send him back to the Oilers. "You guys have enough defenceman!" was his response. My buddy then discussed Gare Joyce's recent hockey book, "Future Greats" with Scott Howson. He's a fan of that the book too.

Lots of scouts there too - they weren't revealing much or very talkative.

Junior hockey isn't popular yet in this town - it's be great if the Oil Kings can get some high-end players in the coming years that can drum up the interest.

Kevin Lowe and the Playoffs

Oh no no! Not this year silly.

Rather, I'm bringing forth a question - does Kevin Lowe put too much weight on playoff performance when making transactions?

Examples:
1) Dwayne Roloson - Everyone knew that Dwayne Roloson was playing way over his head in the playoffs. That type of SV% was never sustainable in the long run, and the cracks started to show in the Anaheim series.

So...under what basis was he extended 3 years for?

The money was fine - the contract length wasn't.

Manny Legace, however, put up strong numbers throughout the regular season. MC79 was on board, at that time, suggesting the Oilers pick up Legace instead of Roloson. Legace signed for a mere 1.4M/1 year deal. Roloson, meanwhile, provided the Oilers with less than league average goaltending in year 1 of the contract, and has reverted to a backup role in year 2. Did anyone expect a 37 year old goaltender who was never a full-time starter in his career, to revitalize his career a la Tommy Salo, 1999?

2) Marty Reasoner, an integral part in the Doug Weight deal. Marty had a solid playoffs in 2000-2001, scoring many key GWG in the 10 game span.

3) Joffrey Lupul in the Pronger deal instead of one of Penner/Perry/Getzlaf. Lupul's playoff bottom line:

16 GP, 9G, 2A, 11 PTS, +9.

The regular season? Old news. The playoffs are what earn you 6 Stanley Cup Rings.

An added bonus, Lupul is a GAB (Good Alberta Boy) Copyright: Dennis

4) Fernando Pisani's contract extension. According to Scott Howson, the Oilers didn't give Pisani the 1.1M he was asking for in January 2006 and wanted to wait it out. Then came the playoffs. Strong Performance. Poof! "Here you go, an additional 1.4M, no questions asked."

5) Craig MacTavish's 4 year contract extension after the playoffs. Lowe/Oilers had declined to exercise the team option of MacTavish's contract after the regular season.

Just a theory.

I like Kevin Lowe - he's an epitome of an Oiler. He's a genuine, down-to-earth person [I've met him]. Of all the GM's in the league, he's first choice would be that he finishes his career in Edmonton with one Stanley Cup ring as a GM. However, like Scotiabank commercial suggests, perhaps it's time for Kevin Lowe to get a "second onion."

What does Nilsson have to do to earn more ice time?

ROBERT NILSSON

2.67 ESP/60 [4th highest goal differential]

0.55 PPG

3.35 PPP/60 [on 2nd unit]

Tied with Gilbert, 5th on the team in Plus/Minus rating (+2). Breakdown: Home (-1). Road (+3)

Yet, he sits at 18th on the Oilers at 13:05 TOI/game.

What explains this? What am I missing?

Is his hair too funky?

Or is his hockey style just not suited for a "Mac-T type" of hockey club?

De Guzman weighing allegiances to Canada, Netherlands

As an avid Mens National Soccer Team fan, I've been on top of the De Guzman saga.

Here's an update:

The father of Jonathan de Guzman, one of Canada's most talented soccer players, says the chaos in the Canadian Soccer Association continues to discourage his son from playing for Canada's national team.

"If the CSA wasn't in such a horrible state, he would've played for Canada by now. I don't know that for a fact, but it's just a strong feeling I have," Bobby de Guzman told Tom Harrington of CBC News

EIG Continue to use Edmontonians As a Pawn

A recent questionnaire illustrates the EIG reverting back to their old subtle tricks yet again

See below:

13. At this point in time, are you intending to renew all or most of your Season Seats for the 2008-09 season?
[RESPONSE REQUIRED]
- Select One -(5) Very Likely(4)(3)(2)(1) Not at all/Likely/Don't know/Not stated

14. In the case where the NHL salary cap increases from one season to the next, which of the following ticket strategies do you favour?

Increase ticket prices to allow the Oilers to maintain their practice of spending near or at the top of the cap OR
Maintain ticket prices and no longer spend near the cap
Don't know/No opinion

15. What is your expectation on ticket pricing for the 2008-09 season?
0% increase
1-2% increase
3-5% increase
6-7% increase
Don't know/No opinion

*Tip of the cap to Ibis284 from HF.

It's quite clear they intend to raise ticket prices. The intended purpose of this survey isn't to genuinely consider what the season ticket holders base wants. Rather, it's a case of another attempt by the EIG to create an either/or scenario in the minds of the consumer, influence them towards the desired response, and subsequently use survey results as defensive tool when they raise ticket prices this summer.

The fact that they're asking this question, however, concerns me. Perhaps the 66% shareholder vote isn't secure just yet.

Too bad.

Billy Beane on Statistical Analysis

A recent article from ESPN. A great guy, that Billy Beane.

For the uninitiated, the term "Moneyball" refers to Michael Lewis' book by the same name. The book attempted to explain why the A's, on a shoestring budget, managed to successfully compete against baseball teams with far bigger payrolls. The answer, in part, lays in the organization's use of statistical analysis as a means of finding undervalued players, be they prospects or established veterans.

"If you get the data, what you're trying to ultimately achieve is: What is the intrinsic value of this player's performance?" Beane said. "What is he paid, and what should he be paid?"

"I think the misconception about any statistical analysis is that you're not going to be 100 percent correct," Beane said. "What you're trying to do is create an arbitrage ... if you're right 25 percent versus 20 percent you've created a 5 percent arbitrage opportunity. That's really all you're trying to do

"Let's face it, every business has metrics that can be used," Beane said. "It's just identifying the metrics that have the greatest weight and the greatest correlation to ultimately winning. It's a work in progress, and I say this with a tremendous amount of respect [for soccer]."

"You don't create the template and then that's it," Beane added. "It's constantly evolving and changing as you try to ferret out things that can be applied. Statistical analysis is still very much fluid."

Patrick Sharp Cashes In

Patrick Sharp, 26, signed a 4 year contract today at 15.6M [3.9M/season] avoiding restricted free agency.

He's posted a strong year with 22 goals and 36 points in 44 games. Chicago is banking on the hope that Sharp's offensive game continues at the current year's pace for the next 4 years.

Meanwhile, the numbers show that a guy is shooting at a 19.6% rate, much higher than his career average of 13.2%.

From Chicago's perspective, I don't like it. I'll be honest in saying that I don't watch too many games not involving the Oilers, aside from the playoffs. However, looking at the career numbers, I don't believe the ones posted this year are sustainable in the long run. Sharp also doesn't have a history of putting up big numbers going back to his junior days. Too much for a guy that likely would have been in the middle of the line for possible RFA offersheets.

Perhaps Kevin Lowe did singlehandedly change the market. Or perhaps GMs are irrationally worrying about the "RFA game." Or just perhaps, my salary expectations lag behind inflation and the rising cap.

We'll find out more in the summer.

Stay tuned.

A Little Known Fact

JIM MATHESON

Q: Has there been talk of the Oilers getting their own plane if Daryl Katz becomes majority owner? If so, does anybody know if an airplane's environmental controls can be tweaked to simulate a hyperbaric chamber?

(Davey Armey)

A: The Oilers already have a spiffy private plane with first-class, leather seats and nice food. They don't use a hyperbaric chamber at ice level, so I don't see them giving it a go at 30,000 feet.

Pure Dumb Luck

Ryan Rishaug just recently reported that the Oilers actually were close to signing CUJO at the beginning of the season. He also implied that it went as far as negotiating terms and dollars.

Seeing how Garon has worked out, it's safe to say Lowe dodged a bullet.

Luckily, it's not the only occasion where he has done so:

2) Vanek RFA offersheet that would have ended up costing the Oilers 4 First round picks had Buffalo Matched.

The bottom line: 25 points in 43 games earning a 10M salary this season. Still a way to go before he peaks.

3) A 35 year old Michael Nylander who was close to signing a 4 year deal, worth at least 5.5M in the first 3 years.

The bottom line: A team worst -19 in 40 games on a relatively strong 5 on 5 Washington Capitals [EVGF 80, EVGA 88]. The next closest is Semin at -11.

4) Many reports indicate that Wade Redden refused to waive his NTC to play with the Oilers.

The bottom line: If he had, as reports suggest, Shawn Horcoff was going the other way.

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you never made

-- Kevin Lowe

Indeed.

Hannu Toivenen Career Falling; Marek Schwarz Called Up

Hannu Toivonen is an interesting goaltender. Drafted in the first round (29th overall) in 2002, he started his professional career with a splash.

He posted a .921 and .932 SV% in the AHL at 20 and 21, and a .914 SV% in 20 games with the Boston Bruins at 22.

Then he fell - for whatever reason. In 2 further stints in the NHL, he posted a GAA of 4.23 and 3.89, and corresponding .875 and .882 SV%. Today he was sent down to the AHL.

Many, including myself wanted Lowe to acquire him this past summer. We were confident that there was no chance his numbers early on in his career were a fluke. Needless to say, he's proving us otherwise.

So What happened to Toivonen? I generate 3 possibilities:

1) He was indeed playing over his head at 20 and 21
2) Boston rushed him into the NHL when he wasn't mentally ready; confidence and numbers fell
3) In the seasons he was playing well, the sample size was too small to make confident assertions

I'm leaning towards (2) and (3). Confidence is a fragile thing, and goalies tend not to be ready until 23-24. With regards to sample size, we're measuring him on seasons with 36, 54, 20, 18, 27, and 14. Perhaps not large enough to make an analysis.

On a related note, a goaltender that Oiler fans will forever compare Devan Dubnyk to, Marek Schwarz, has been called up to take Toivonen's spot. His .900 SV% is slightly lower than Dubnyk's .903. I expect he'll get murdered playing against men.

Quite simply put, he's just not ready.

MVP: The Secret Lives of Hockey Wivies

Excellent opening show. New CBC drama. Hockey related.

Watch the show online here if you missed it.

Cheers

Oilers TV Ratings down 30% from last year

I guess that's what a bad hockey team will do for you.

William Houston with the STORY

Despite leading the Northwest Division, Canucks regional audiences are down 20 per cent. Rogers Sportsnet is averaging 242,000 viewers a game compared with 303,000 at this point last season.

Networks pay closer attention to long-term trends than year-to-year measurements, but the Canucks numbers also have declined 29 per cent from the prelockout season of 2003-04.

Flames: Averaging 117,000 viewers, down 3 per cent from last year at this point, up 3 per cent from 2003-04.

Oilers: Averaging 116,000, down 30 per cent from last year, up 22 per cent from 2003-04.

Leafs: Averaging 411,000, down 3 per cent from last year at this time, up 7 per cent from 2003-04.

Ottawa Senators: Averaging 102,000, up 17 per cent from last year, up 38 per cent from 2003-04.

Montreal Canadiens: Averaging 643,000 on Reseau des Sports, down 9 per cent from last season, but up 65 per cent from 2003-04.

Jason Bonsignore traded [Back in North America]

RENTON, NJ (January 9, 2008) - The Trenton Devils [ECHL] today announced that they have acquired forward Jason Bonsignore from the Fresno Falcons in exchange for future considerations.

CONTINUE

CAREER STATS

For the love of the game or nothing else to turn to?

Shawn Horcoff an All-Star

Hey now you're an All Star get your game on, go play
Hey now you're a Rock Star get the show on get paid
And all that glitters is gold
Only shooting stars break the mold
-- Smash Mouth

JOURNAL

SUN

"I don't think he gets the credit he deserves," said Fernando Pisani. "He's on the power play, penalty kill, he's out there 20-plus minutes a night. He's been doing it all for us. It's great to see him get some recognition."

"It speaks to the dimension of his game because there's not a situation I don't rely on him in during the course of a game," said Craig MacTavish. "He's a great role model. Yesterday in practice I went to a player and said 'Watch Horcoff, practice, just watch him.' From a coaching perspective it's so beneficial to have your best players be your best examples."

U.S . Television Ratings Up

STORY

At the midway point of this season, national audiences on Versus are up 32 per cent from this time last year.

Versus is drawing numbers comparable with ESPN2's viewership in 2003-04, which was the last year of its deal with the NHL.

Regionally, the audiences on Fox Sports Net have increased 25 per cent. FSN, which airs regional telecasts in 14 markets, has seen huge increases for the Minnesota Wild (114 per cent), St. Louis Blues (103 per cent) and Detroit Red Wings (50 per cent).

On the downside, audiences for the Atlanta Thrashers have dropped 50 per cent. The Phoenix Coyotes numbers are down 35 per cent. Viewership for the Tampa Bay Lightning has declined 31 per cent and the Dallas Stars are in the hole by 29 per cent.

However, when ESPN2 was airing games, the telecasts were blacked out in the local markets. Versus has the advantage of going into the local markets.

Demotivational Posters

Nice THREAD at HF

Ales Hemsky is an Improving Hockey Player

I never understood the Hemsky "bashing." [for a lack of a better word].

2002-2003 - 0.51PPG
2003-2004 - 0.48PPG
2005-2006 - 0.95PPG
2006-2007 - 0.83PPG
2007-2008 - 0.89PPG

He's shown improvement. Not following a linear curve, but improvement nonetheless. I believe last year's numbers should be looked at in context [final 20 games].

If the arguments are that he doesn't step up in big games - I have a feeling you missed the 2006 Cup run [17 points in 24 games]. He was arguably the Oilers best forward in the SCF.

And this year - for whatever reason, the PP has struggled. It's improved recently, and we should expect that over the long haul, it gets on track and subsequently improves his numbers with the man advantage.

The key things you should take note of are:

a) SOG
2007-2008: 88 shots in 37 games - 2.38 SOG/game
2006-2007: 122 shots in 64 games - 1.91 SOG/game
2005-2006: 178 shots in 81 games - 2.20 SOG/game
2003-2004: 87 shots in 71 games - 1.23 SOG/game

*The final 20 games in 2006-2007 - Again, use the numbers in context.

b) PP SCORING
2007-2008: 11 of his 33 points are on the PP - EV PPG: 0.59
2006-2007: 25 out of 53 point were on the PP - EV PPG: 0.42
2005-2006: 42 out of 77 points were on the PP - EV PPG: 0.43
2003-2004: 11 out of 34 points were on the PP - EV PPG: 0.32

It's no secret how much Pronger improved the Oilers PP. The Oilers simply haven't been able to replace him at the point. Perhaps Souray will help in that department - and perhaps also when Pitkanen learns to take the shot more often instead of constantly having the urge to pass it off.

However, the fact Hemsky's improved significantly at EV is a sign of an improving hockey player. He's only 24 - patience obviously isn't a strong fort in this city.

Weak UFA Class - Summer 2008

I'll start with a list and finish it up with some commentary.

NOTEWORTHY PENDING UFAs

ANA:
Doug Weight

ATL:
Marian Hossa
Bobby Holik
Steve Rucchin
Pascal Dupuis
Mark Recchi
Steve McCarthy
Johan Hedberg

BOS:
Glen Metropolit
Aaron Ward

BUF:
Dmitri Kalinin
Brian Campbell
Nolan Pratt
Jocelyn Thibault

CAR:
Cory Stillman
Trevor Letowski
Bret Hedican
Glen Wesley
Mike Commodore

CGY:
Craig Conroy
Daymond Langkow
Kristian Huselius
Owen Nolan
Stephane Yelle
Mark Smith

CHI:
Martin Lapointe
Sergei Samsonov
Jason Williams
Yanic Perreault
Brent Sopel
Andrei Zyuzin

CLB:
Sergei Federov
David Vyborny
Michael Peca
Jason Chimera
Jody Shelley
Adam Foote
Jan Hedja
Ron Hainsey

COL:
Joe Sakic
Andrew Brunette
John-Michael Liles
Kurt Sauer
Jose Theodore

DAL:
Mike Ribeiro
Stu Barnes
Antti Miettinen
Niklas Hagman
Mattias Norstrom

DET:
Daniel Cleary
Dallas Drake
Aaron Downey
Chris Chelios
Andreas Lilja
Chris Osgood

EDM:
Geoff Sanderson
Marty Reasoner
Dick Tarnstrom

FLA:
Branislav Mezei
Steve Montador

LAK:
Ladislav Nagy
Scott Thornton
Brad Stuart
Brian Willsie
Rob Blake
Jaroslav Modry
Jon Klemm
Kevin Dallman
Jean-Sebastien Aubin

MIN:
Pavol Demitra
Brian Rolston
Dominic Moore
Branko Radivojevic
Todd Fedoruk
Keith Carney
Nick Schultz
Petteri Nummelin
Sean Hill

MTL:
Michael Ryder
Brian Smolinski
Patrice Brisebois
Cristobal Huet

NAS:
Martin Gelinas
Jean-Pierre Dumont
Dan Ellis

NJD:
Jay Pandolfo
Arron Asham
Karel Rachunek
Sheldon Brookbank

NYI:
Miroslav Satan
Mike Comrie
Ruslan Fedotenko
Trent Hunter
Josef Vasicek
Chris Simon
Bryan Berard
Wade Dubielewicz

NYR:
Brendan Shanahan
Martin Straka
Sean Avery
Paul Mara
Marek Malik
Michal Rozsival
Stephen Valiquette

OTT:
Chris Kelly
Shean Donovan
Randy Robitaille
Wade Redden
Luke Richardson

PHI:
Jason Smith
Jim Vandermeer

PHX:
Radim Vrbata
Mike York
Ilya Bryzgalov

PIT:
Gary Roberts
Ryan Malone
Georges Laraque
Jarkko Ruutu
Adam Hall
Mark Eaton
Brooks Orpik
Ty Conklin

SJS:
Curtis Brown
Patrick Rissmiller
Jeremy Roenick
Alexei Semenov
Sandis Ozolinsh

STL:
Martin Rucinsky
Ryan Johnson
Mike Johnson
Barrett Jackman
Bryce Salvador
Matt Walker

TBAY:
Vaclav Prospal
Chris Gratton
Jan Hlavac
Andre Roy
Dan Boyle
Johan Holmqvist

TOR:
Matts Sundin
Wade Belak

VAN:
Markus Naslund
Brendan Morrison
Matt Cooke
Trevor Linden
Byron Ritchie
Brad Isbister
Aaron Miller
Curtis Sanford

WASH:
Donald Brashear
Matt Bradley
Olaf Kolzig


NOTES

LACK OF ELITE PLAYERS
Perhaps with the lack of elite players, it's an indication that teams have began to lock up their star players early.

*The only elite players I see from the list are Sakic, Hossa, and Sundin. I can't see Sakic or Sundin playing anywhere else, giving Hossa a "pure monopoly" status.

*FORWARDS THAT WILL GARNER THE MOST INTEREST: Daymond Langkow, Kristian Huselius, Jason Williams, Mike Ribeiro, Andrew Brunette, Pavol Demitra, Cory Stillman, Brian Rolston, Jean-Pierre Dumont, Miroslav Satan, Sean Avery, Brendan Shanahan, Martin Straka, Radim Vrbata, Vaclav Prospal, Markus Naslund, Brendan Morrison.

From that list, I expect most of them to be locked up by their teams. From the Oilers standpoint, they can use almost anyone from that list.

Sutter will have a difficult time keeping both Langkow and Huselius, with nearly 40M committed in cap space [more in real dollars with Kiprusoff making $8M for the next 3 years].

DEFENSEMEN THAT WILL GARNER THE MOST ATTENTION:
Aaron Ward, Brian Campbell, Bret Hedican, Mike Commodore, Adam Foote, John-Michael Liles, Mattias Norstrom, Brad Stuart, Rob Blake, Nick Schultz, Paul Mara, Marek Malik, Michal Rozsival, Jason Smith, Mark Eaton, Dan Boyle

Not a tremendous group. A lot of defensive-defensemen in this year's group. Dan Boyle has been injured pretty much the whole season, so it will be interesting on how that plays out. I expect most of the players to be retained by their club.

Lowe could certainly use names from that group, using Tarnstrom's money.

GOALTENDERS THAT WILL GARNER THE MOST ATTENTION:
Jose Theodore, Chris Osgood, Jean-Sebastien Aubin, Dan Ellis, Wade Dubielewicz, Ty Conklin, Stephen Valiquette, Johan Holmqvist, Ilya Bryzgalov, Olaf Kolzig

A load of backups in the group. Osgood is having a tremendous year with a .932SV%. I expect he could be getting a large raise. Likewise, Dan Ellis is set for a massive raise on his $500,000 salary. Ilya Bryzgalov will also cash in. Conklin has at least won himself a one-way contract with his recent performance.

OVERALL
The pending UFA class this year is weak, and when many teams begin locking up their players, it will be further weakened.

From the Oilers standpoint, each team in the division has many key players to sign. CAL (Langkow, Huselius), COL (Sakic, Liles, Brunette), VAN (Naslund, Morrison, Cooke), and Minnesota (Demitra, Rolston, Schultz). At least we can hope...

We may see some RFA offersheets. One thing is clear: RFA's will/are (be) taking a larger share of the pie than they historically took.

PatH from Lowetide posted this Hockey News Article regarding the influence Kevin Lowe has had on the market.

Some noteworthy excerpts:

Kevin Lowe is the Newsmaker of the Year because nobody influenced the game the way Lowe did in 2007. In short, his offer sheets to restricted free agents Thomas Vanek and Dustin Penner have changed hockey's financial landscape.

"Every GM I talk to talks about Kevin Lowe," said one NHL agent. "Every single one."

The implications have been huge. With two strokes of the pen, Lowe has essentially created a situation where elite players coming off entry-level deals have moved into the elite wage earners in the league. It has certainly moved young RFAs into the same status as elite unrestricted free agents, both in terms of their attractiveness to other teams and in salary.

Did Kevin Lowe singlehandedly change the market?

You decide.

Another Arena Debate...

...at Battle of Alberta blogspot.

CHIME IN HERE

I don't want your money - I want your Bookie's Fucking Money

There are only 3 sports leagues I follow. NHL. NFL. National & International Curling. I don't know what happened, but the MLB, NBA, and CFL no longer interest me.

I bet every once in a while at sportsinteraction.com [Canadian site - legal]. Not much - a pansy better if you may - but a bettor nonetheless.

Hockey is a bit more difficult to bet on. The spread for games is always -1.5 for the favoured squad on this site, and with the empty net goals factor, it's a bigger challenge. Usually when I bet NHL games, I pick the underdog when I feel it has a good chance of beating the spread (+1.5), or bet the underdog in moneyline.

The NFL is much easier to digest. Spreads are different for each game.

I've had some success this season. Won a NFL Yahoo pool, and am first in a group of 20 in the Straight-up picks pool. I'm also 2nd in the Against-the-Spread picks pool.

So this is what you're going to do - You're going to lay down $1,000 on each of the following picks. Expect to 6/8 (75%). Then you're going to wire me 10% of the of net winnings.

TENNESSEE @ SD (-10.0) - Vince Young questionable. Top receiver out. SD finished the season hot. Take SD SU, and AS

NYG @ TAMPA BAY (-3.5) - Garcia with the experience. Home crowd. Gruden is a damn good coach. Take TAMPA SU, and AS

JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) @ PITTSBURGH - Jacksonville is a great team. That's why it was difficult for me to take PITTSBURGH SU, and AS

WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE (-3.5) - Washington's on a hot streak with a strong defence. I like them in an upset. Take WASHINGTON SU, AS.

Let's make some money

The Role of Sports & Entertainment Facilities in Urban Development Conference

CONFERENCE

Bob McCown schools Edmonton's MSM

Did anyone catch "Primetime Sports" today? [Excellent show by the way, aside from Jim Kelley]

They were discussing the outdoor game concept, and figured Ottawa may not be worth it financially as it holds only 30,000 capacity.

Bob McCown then remarked that Cal Nichols came to speak with them in his show during the HC timeframe, and used to comment that the Oilers aren't doing it for the money, but for the atmosphere, and ''blah blah blah.'' Then Bob remarked, ''I used to tell him, Cal, you're full of you know what. It's all about the money'' and that Cal's response was ancillary costs [and conveniently ignoring ancillary revenues]

I recommend this read before you go on further [regarding costs]:

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=2859

Bob then went on that ''in the end, they winded up admitting to making 3-4M, and it was a case of them downplaying their profits. 3-4M is a good chunk of change for an NHL franchise. Of course it was about the money."

Did the Edmonton's MSM ever challenge those ''feel good community catch phrases?''

RIP EIG

The EIG is no longer a group of 33 united individuals.

With another episode of an EIG personality & decision-making clash today, it's becoming more and more likely that either the team will be sold to Katz, or some members of the EIG will be bought out.

Here's a complete updated TSN story

This was Katz response

Some noteworthy quotes and snippets from today:

TSN

The Edmonton Investors Group held a formal meeting to discuss the bid to buy the NHL's Edmonton Oilers by businessman Daryl Katz and have recommended their shareholders to reject the drugstore billionaire's attempt to purchase the team.

However, the offer is far from dead as several major investors are not on the Board and would still like to sell to Katz. TSN has learned the board voted 6-4 to recommend rejection, but some of the bigger shareholders are known to support the latest offer.

The 33-member group stated their desire to know if Katz would be willing to sign an agreement to keep the Oilers in Edmonton. They also wanted Katz to discuss reports that have suggested he would be willing to spend up to $100 million on a new arena.

I had initially thought the EIG were just looking to make sure the sale included a written clause to keep the team in Edmonton and invest 100M in a new arena [referring to: ''reject the offer in it's current form'']. However, with members of the EIG [Nichols, Saville] among others endorsing Katz publicly, I don't feel that's the case. The guy was born here. Went to the U of A here. Built the largest house in Edmonton [25M]. Made the largest donation [7M] to the U of A in its history. Saved the Grand Prix of Edmonton when it was losing sponsors. Donates large sums to Strollery Children's Hospital. Bought a section of tickets for Tickets for Troops night. Ensured the Cash is King lottery would break even by purchasing large sums of lottery tickets when sales were struggling. I can't see the threat of Katz moving a concern to members of the EIG - it's beyond that, which I'll follow up on.

KATZ [voicing his frustration]

The board's conduct in recent days is confusing and I fail to see how it serves the best interests of (Oilers) shareholders,'' Katz said. "I have offered repeatedly to meet with the EIG Board of Directors, EIG shareholders - either individually or as a group - and with the professional advisors to any of the above to discuss my interest in acquiring the team and answer their questions."

I intend to respond to whatever valid questions the board has about my offer for the team, but I think they owe an equal duty to come clean about any involvement members of the board may have in fashioning an alternative bid, how much debt they plan to assume to retain ownership, and what commitments they are prepared to make to help secure a new arena.

BILL BUTLER, Current Chairman of EIG

Some shareholders are getting close to 80. They should be given rights to get out. As we move forward, what are the options? If we were to explore bank financing could we raise capital to buy out existing shareholders who want to sell. Other current investors are prepared to take a larger piece. Are there third parties who want to take a role?

Seems to me there's conflict in the group. Gregg and a few smaller shareholders are seeking to possibly buyout existing shareholders. This would require more debt financing, or equity financing in the form of new investors, which the NHL would subsequently have to approve.

Of course Butler was on CHED today, and threw out the obligatory, ''Doing what's best for the community'' catch phrase. What nonsense.

Dashingsilverfox on HF brought up a strong point:

Oh the irony...the EIG splinter group has managed to alienate a large portion of their fan base and the largest corporate sponsor (Daryl Katz) all in one ill-conceived and ill-timed news release.

I wonder who is giving these clowns media relations advice?

What happens to these guys when Katz takes his money elsewhere, should he not be successful in obtaining the team?

He won't step up for arena naming rights or buy a bundle of Cash is King lottery tickets either to ensure it breaks-even - that's for sure.

It's become a battle of pride - and it certainly isn't doing the Edmonton Oilers any good.

Quite simply put, what a mess.

Sam Gagner's 18 year old season

Tyler on Lowetide had this comment on Sam Gagner

Gagner is so out of his depth that I want to cry watching him - but I'm still not sure that he has quite enough offensive game to get it done.


I wonder about his long run progression too. He doesn't really have much of a shot, and is somewhat weak defensively despite some solid individual plays. I mean, no question that the talent is there - and he's only barely 18 - but what is his ceiling as a hockey player?

Looking at two comparables, both whom went straight to the NHL from junior, he's in good company thus far. Whether he'll take the big step in one of the subsequent years like them, or or more locally, Hemsky [3rd professional hockey season] remains to be seen.

Staal put up:
81 11 20 31
*Turned 19 at the end of October, effectively making him a 19 year old

Bergeron:
71 16 23 39

Gagner is thus far:
39 3 13 16
*He put up 7 points in his first 8 or so game.

The reality of the situation is fans like myself tend to be impatient. Prospects also develop at different rates.

For Gagner, I feel he'll have to improve his strength and work on his shot. Defensive play will come with experience.

Will he?

The hockey sense and heart is there [Read: Toolbox].

Tony Montana

This is Tony Montana. Also known as Scarface.

An ambitious, aggressive, careless, competitive, cocky and relatively young fellow.

However, it was these characteristics that ultimately lead to his death.

Unfortunately, the Oilers GM, Kevin Lowe inherits these very characteristics.

I will illustrate some examples that indicate similarities between the two:

• Tony Montana spent '12% of his adjusted gross' on security. However that security failed to bring him results when it mattered. Likewise, Kevin Lowe spent effectively 12% of his payroll on Sheldon Souray - who also failed to deliver results
• Tony Montana entered the business with a lack of experience. He saw initial success with Frank, and craved for more quickly ignoring long run costs. He took steps to rise fast in the underworld business, no matter what the consequences of pissing off long term competitors were . Likewise, Kevin Lowe had a strong nucleus of talented young prospects, but the strong desire for short term results this past summer lead to signing an unneeded Sheldon Souray, and pissing off competitors [Regier - Vanek, Burke - Penner] in the process of doing so.
  
• Tony Montana was careless with his mouth when angrily cussing at Alejandro Sosa, instead of discussing in a calm manner. Ultimately, that shot down any chance of forgiveness. Likewise, an emotionally overwhelmed Kevin Lowe went on National TV [HNIC} to proclaim that Ryan Smyth isn't an elite player. On July 1, Smyth never returned the call back.
• Tony Montana lost his best business associate - Manny Ribera. Likewise, Kevin Lowe lost assistant [and lawyer] Scott Howson.
• Tony Montana questioned if the business was truly worth it. That lead to a self-questioning session in public. VIDEO . Likewise, Kevin Lowe was puzzled in a stream of questions and despair .
  

I will end this entry with the famous words of an experienced Frank Lopez:

Hey, Tony. Remember when I told you when you first started working for me, the guys that last in this business, are the guys who fly straight. Low-key, quiet. But the guys who want it all, chicas, champagne, flash... they don't last.

Faceoff.com back up after a 5 year leave of absense

All of the days articles & columnists across the country.

Excellent site.

Lupul further expands on his time in Edmonton

Last year I got too worried about the score sheet," Lupul said. "Everyone was talking about goals and goals and goals, and I said I had to get some points. For me, I don't think I'm a top-end offensive guy, I'm more of a hard-working, physical player. I have a little bit of natural ability to get those goals.

LOL

I was putting the pressure on myself to go out and score goals when maybe I should have been putting the pressure on myself to compete, work, play more physical and, in turn, the goals would have come. I think things just started off bad there. I never really found a line. I played with every guy on the team four times. I never got comfortable there."

"He was the type of coach that had a couple guys he was really comfortable with and he played them 23, 24 minutes a game," Lupul said. "The other guys had to scrap it out for the bottom 12 minutes. I never really got into that comfort zone with him. He never really trusted me as far as John Stevens does, as far as penalty killing and four-on-four play and last minutes of periods. It gives you a lot of confidence when you come in and a coach shows that much confidence in you.

Kind of odd then, when you see Gagner and Nilsson, two rookies, out on the ice during crucial stages of the games.

Jason Smith, who was also included in the Lupul trade that saw the Flyers send Joni Pitkanen and forward Geoff Sanderson to Edmonton, has seen a completely new player.

He came in with a new attitude this year," Smith said. "He was refreshed and looking for the opportunity to prove himself again this year. He's taking that challenge. He came to training camp in great shape and he's working as hard as he can every night.

STORY

"If I Only Knew...

If I only knew that the cap was going up, I may have held onto Ryan Smyth.

- Kevin Lowe, July 2007

Don't make the same mistake with Pitkanen, Kevin.

WASHINGTON BIZ JOURNAL

NHL executives project league revenue will jump 10 to 11 percent to $2.53 billion during the 2007-08 season, according to a presentation to the hockey organization's board of governors Nov. 29.

The league's revenue increased more than 6 percent in the 2006-07 season to $2.3 billion.

The league anticipated a more conservative increase of 7-plus percent this year based on a hike in average ticket prices, attendance and sponsorship sales. But the strength of the Canadian dollar pushed the projection an additional 3 percent to the $2.53 billion figure.

According to Irish Blues, a well recognized moderator on HF, he expects based on those numbers, a cap of 54.75M, up from the 50.3M currently.

Is the Oiler Nation overrating Mathieu Garon?

Due to:

• Making the big saves?
• Flexibility at a level that is second to no one?
  
• Relative comparison to Roloson?
• Astronomical success in the shoot-out that is unlikely to carry on at its current rate?
  

He has at times allowed soft goals. Enough of them that his SV% is 22nd in the NHL at .910.

Breaking down his stats game-by-game, in the past 8 games, he's had only 2 of them with a SV% below .900. In the first 9 games, there were 6 occasions, which may be suggesting that he has turned the corner. He faces on average, 25.19 Shots Against/60.

In any case, a larger sample size is needed to see where he fits in comparison to other NHL goalies. If he can squeak into the top 15 category by the end of the year, he'll be making a strong case towards being a starter next year.

It will be interesting to see if MacT rolls with Roloson on Tuesday night against Dallas.

Dubnyk vs Schwarz

Like the Pouliot vs Parise, this is another comparison Oiler fans love to bring out. The selection of Devan Dubnyk, 14th overall in the 2004 NHL entry draft, didn't come without its' controversy. Many felt Schwarz was the better goalie, whom was taken 17th overall.

Before I throw out the numbers, it should be mentioned only 3 goalies have a SV% above .920, which has been often mentioned as the line in the sand for elite goalies. They are:

Jeff Glass - 17 GP - .928
Drew MacIntrye - 16 GP - .926
Tyler Weiman - 10 GP - .921

Jeff Drouin-Deslausiers - 22 GP - .917, therefore is relatively in good company.

Back to Dubnyk vs Schwarz - here are the numbers for these 2 young goalies at the professional level.

Dubnyk:
20 year old (ECHL) - 43 GP - .921 SV%, 2.56 GAA
20 year old (AHL) - 4 GP - .855 SV%, 2.94 GAA
21 year old (AHL) - 11 GP - .898 SV%, 3.42 GAA

Schwarz
20 year old (AHL) - 34 GP - .899 SV%, 2.76 GAA
20 year old (NHL) - 2 GP - .880 SV%, 3.00 GAA
21 year old (NHL) - 1 GP - .750 SV%, 5.60 GAA
21 year old (AHL) - 11 GP - .900 SV%, 2.30 GAA

Neither goalies have impressive numbers on surface. Certainly nothing that stands out as elite or anything that suggests either is set to graduate to the NHL anytime soon. Such as, Carey Price's 22 GP in the AHL playoffs straight out of the WHL (at age 20), co-leading with captain Ajay Baines to help the Hamilton Bulldogs win the Calder Cup.

However, two noteworthy differences were found.

1) Numbers for the goalies on the same team:

Jeff Drouin Deslauriers - 22 GP- 917 SV% - 2.62 GAA
Chris Beckford-Tseu - 9GP, .903 SV% - 2.49 GAA

In this sense, it's discouraging for Dubnyk to be posting numbers well below his co-goaltender.

2) Shots Against/60

Dubnyk - 34.47 Shots Against/60
Schwarz - 22.95 Shots Against/60

Their Co-goaltenders:

Jeff Drouin Deslauriers - 31.67 Shots Against/60
Chris Beckford-Tseu - 25.61 Shots Against/60

We can infer that Springfield gives up alot of shots. Peoria, meanwhile does not. Dubnyk's 3.42 GAA (JDD 2.62) also may be suggesting that one can make the quality scoring chances argument - however, that variable is more likely to be drawn out once a larger sample size (GP) is obtained.

Whatever the case is, Schwarz numbers are simply not impressive. Nor were his junior numbers impressive (.900 in 56 GP in his only season in the WHL). Dubnyk, meanwhile did post relatively strong numbers in the dub (.907, .917, .912, .912 in the 4 seasons). I think it's fair to assert that if Dubnyk is going to be a legitimate starter in the NHL, his numbers have to pick up? No? Meanwhile, it seems JDD is ready to graduate to the NHL as a backup role.

It will be interesting to see what happens in coming years.

What say you?

Schedule Breakdown - Updated

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Pacific Division

San Jose Sharks (1/2H, 0/2A)
Dallas Stars (0/2H, 1/2A)
Anaheim Ducks (1/2H, 2/2A)
Phoenix Coyotes (0/2H, 1/2A)
Los Angeles Kings (0/2H, 2/2A)

Northwest Division
Vancouver Canucks (2/4H, 2/4 A)
Minnesota Wild (2/4H, 2/4A)
Colorado Avalanche (2/4H, 2/4A)
Calgary Flames (1/4H, 2/4A)

Central Division

Detroit Red Wings (1/2 H, 2/2 A)
St. Louis Blues (1/2H, 1/2A)
Columbus Blue Jackets (1/2H, 0/2A)
Chicago Blackhawks (1/2H, 0/2A)
Nashville Predators (1/2H, 0/2A)

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Philadelphia Flyers (1/1 H)
Pittsburgh Penguins (1/1 H)

RANDOM NOTES
*The injury-depleted Edmonton Oilers have played 16 out of the 33 games games this year on home ice.

Divisional comparison:
Calgary Flames - 18/32
Colorado Avalanche - 15/31
Vancouver Canucks - 15/31
Minnesota Wild - 15/30
Edmonton Oilers - 16/33

*Phoenix, LA - 4 home games left against those two clubs

*Moreau is set to return next week

* 5 out of the 8 back-to-backs have been completed. 3 more remaining.

*6/15 PPV games have been broadcasted. 9 remain on the schedule.

The Business man gets it done

Nichols said: "It's probably time to pass the torch to a new generation of ownership... sale of the team will serve shareholders very well"

Lupulov Reflects Back on Time in Edmonton

STORY

Some noteworthy quotes

"I've got a lot to prove," Lupul told The Canadian Press on Wednesday. "It feels a lot like I'd been given up on by the Oilers. It would be nice to have a good year and have some success in the playoffs again."

"There's a lot you can learn about yourself as a player and as a person from a year like that," said Lupul, the centrepiece of the blockbuster that sent Chris Pronger to Anaheim in July 2006. "It was a struggle the whole year. I mean, there was really no time last year where it was a lot of fun for me. You learn a lot about mental toughness.

"I'm sure if I was there this year I really think things would have worked out for me as well as it has in Philadelphia," said Lupul. "I came into the year in a lot better condition and with a different mindset. But the trade was made and I'm pretty happy here in Philadelphia. We've got a great young core, a good team right now and a team I really believe is going to win a championship in the next five years. "That's a pretty good situation to be put in."

"It makes you realize that it's also a business," said Lupul, Anaheim's first pick, seventh overall, in the 2002 NHL entry draft. "The first time I was traded, I was devastated. I couldn't believe it. I thought I was going to play my whole career there in Anaheim. When I got traded it was a pretty big shock. And then the second time, I was surprised but I didn't have the same feeling from the first time. "Now I'm at the point where I realize it can happen at any time. But I don't really want to be a guy that moves around all the time. I've seen enough of the country now. I also played a year in (AHL) Cincinnati during the lockout. I've got four time zones under my belt and that's enough. I'd like to stay here in Philly as long as I can."

"I've been talking to a lot of friends and family," he said with a laugh. "But it's over. I don't expect to ever get six points in a game again in my career. It's back to the grind tomorrow night."

Carl's Jr. & Fatburger coming to Edmonton

Carl's Jr...best......fast food........EVAAAR

Edmonton Oilers 2007: Shooting %

Posted in order of team scoring rank at the particular position

FORWARDS

Shawn Horcoff
2007-2008 - 21.7
2006-2007 - 9.5
2005-2006 - 13.2

Ales Hemsky
2007-2008 - 12.2
2006-2007 - 10.7
2005-2006 - 10.7

Dustin Penner
2007-2008 - 10.4
2006-2007 - 14.2
2005-2006 - 8.7

Andrew Cogliano
2007-2008 - 15.8

Sam Gagner
2007-2008 - 7.3

Jarrett Stoll
2007-2008 - 4.3
2006-2007 - 11.3
2005-2006 - 9.1

Robert Nilsson
2007-2008 - 8.6
2005-2006 - 8.6

Raffi Torres
2007-2008 - 5.9
2006-2007 - 9.7
2005-2006 - 16.5

Kyle Brodziak
2007-2008 - 10.6

Marty Reasoner
2007-2008 - 8.1
2006-2007 - 7.1
2005-2006 - 12.1

Geoff Sanderson
2007-2008 - 8.3
2006-2007 - 7.4
2005-2006 - 16.4

Fernando Pisani
2007-2008 - 14.3
2006-2007 - 9.9
2005-2006 - 13.7

Zach Stortini
2007-2008 - 0.0
2006-2007 - 5.9

Patrick Thorosen
2007-2008 - 20
2006-2007 - 5.5

JF Jacques
2007-2008 - 0.0
2006-2007 - 0.0
2005-2006 - 0.0

Marc-Antoine Pouliot
2007-2008 - 0.0
2006-2007 - 5.5

DEFENCE

Tom Gilbert
2007-2008 - 13.9
2006-2007 - 7.7

Joni Pitkanen
2007-2008 - 9.7
2006-2007 - 2.9
2005-2006 - 11.0

Dick Tarnstrom
2007-2008 - 5.9
2005-2006 - 5.0
2003-2004 - 12.5

Steve Staios
2007-2008 - 9.7
2006-2007 - 2.8
2005-2006 - 5.7

Denis Grebeshkov
2007-2008 - 0.0
2005-2006 - 0.0

Sheldon Souray
2007-2008 - 10.5
2006-2007 - 11.6
2005-2006 - 5.9

Ladislav Smid
2007-2008 - 0
2006-2007 - 5.7

Matt Greene
2007-2008 - 0.0
2006-2007 - 1.9
2005-2006 - 0.0

Mathieu Roy
2007-2008 - 0
2006-2007 - 11.1

Alan Rourke
2007-2008 - 0.0
2006-2007 - 0.0
2005-2006 - 0.0


NOTEABLE OBSERVATIONS - Shawn Horcoff, while improved his shot and release, is scoring at a long run unsustainable %.
- Jarett Stoll and Raffi Torres are snakebit. Expect their numbers to go up.
- Dustin Penner has room to grow.
- Cogliano's rate likely unsustainable. Ironically high S% for a guy labeled as a Marchant clone.
- Geoff Sanderson's 16.4 S% in 2005-2006 can partially explain why he went from 25 to 11 goals
- Fernando Pisani has historically always had a strong S%
- Gilbert's S% high for a defenceman - possibly sustainable as many of his goals have come by sneaking down low from the point.
- Pitkanen has 3 goals this year. He had 4 in total last year. That can be explained by his 2.9 S% last year.
- Dick Tarnstrom 2003-2004 season seemed like a career year.
- Will be interesting to see who is the real Souray is going forward. The pre-2006 season one or the post 2006 one.

Cheers,

PJO

Nashville Predators Independently Valued at 225 Million

STORY

Murray & MacTavish Speak on Horcoff and Penner

STORY

Horcoff, who has been such a regular contributor that he now has 13 points in an eight-game scoring streak, helped the comeback. He has scored a goal in each of his team's last four games, and a total of six goals during his run.

"I love Shawn Horcoff. I'm so happy to see him playing the way he is," said Andy Murray, the Blues coach who has tutored the centre at the world championship.

"The biggest difference between him now and before is the confidence he has shooting the puck," MacTavish said. "He's a real confident shooter and he's going to shoot ever chance he gets.

"Before he was a look/pass-first guy. Now he's not afraid to unload - which I think is the main reason he has the number of goal that he does. That wasn't something we didn't anticipate."

Teamed with Penner and Ales Hemsky, the line has been leading the way, as it should.

"Dustin's game is predicated by anticipation and foot speed - and when he gets skating, he's a handful," MacTavish continued. "And he has played much better the last while, and there's a lot of room to grow.

"He's obviously a player who is developing and finding himself on a new team, in a new role. He's starting to produce now and it's always good that you see the fruits of your labours. That when you are moving your feet, you get rewarded with productivity and that's what is happening with him."

_______

Once you get Moreau back, you have a list of 6 responsible forwards 5 on 5 (Horcoff, Penner, Hemsky, Torres, Pisani, and Moreau). Gagner and Nilsson have been holding their fort playing the soft minutes. Cogliano has fared well for the most part, aside for the last 5 games (-5).

Things are looking good.

Moreau makes a bold statement, Patrick LaForge on Oilers Live

Tip of the hat to ''hotdog'' from HF.

Jason Gregor reported tonight that Moreau has claimed he'll be back next week - for sure.

We've already seen how Gagner and Nilsson have benefited having Pisani on their line. Just a tremendous 5 on 5 player. Now, with Moreau set to be back - it's an opportunity for the Oilers to make a strong push before New Years.

Perhaps Moreau will take Cogliano under his wing, who has struggled recently (-5 in the last 5 games).

On another note, Patrick LaForge will be on Oilers LIVE! answering your questions. You can submit a question via the link below. MCiampa was great at throwing the hardballs in the last interview.

OILERS LIVE - SUBMIT A QUESTION

Crosby, 6 Years Ago

As posted on MIRTLE's blog.

VIDEO

Response to David Staples - Part II

David,

Counter response to your latest entry. Absolutely, I'll be cheering hard for Souray. I hope Huddy helps turn his game around, and the PP shows signs of improvement. I have no malice towards the guy - I just wasn't a fan of the contract. However, he's an Oiler, and he's got full support from me.

As for the previous entry, please don't take it the wrong way. While critical of your opinion, that doesn't neccessarily mean that I am right and you're wrong. It could be exactly the opposite.

If I came across as rude in the previous entry, I apologize - no disrespect was intended. Just a stressful exam season.

Cheers.