Friday, December 14, 2007

Dubnyk vs Schwarz

Like the Pouliot vs Parise, this is another comparison Oiler fans love to bring out. The selection of Devan Dubnyk, 14th overall in the 2004 NHL entry draft, didn't come without its' controversy. Many felt Schwarz was the better goalie, whom was taken 17th overall.

Before I throw out the numbers, it should be mentioned only 3 goalies have a SV% above .920, which has been often mentioned as the line in the sand for elite goalies. They are:

Jeff Glass - 17 GP - .928
Drew MacIntrye - 16 GP - .926
Tyler Weiman - 10 GP - .921

Jeff Drouin-Deslausiers - 22 GP - .917, therefore is relatively in good company.

Back to Dubnyk vs Schwarz - here are the numbers for these 2 young goalies at the professional level.

20 year old (ECHL) - 43 GP - .921 SV%, 2.56 GAA
20 year old (AHL) - 4 GP - .855 SV%, 2.94 GAA
21 year old (AHL) - 11 GP - .898 SV%, 3.42 GAA

20 year old (AHL) - 34 GP - .899 SV%, 2.76 GAA
20 year old (NHL) - 2 GP - .880 SV%, 3.00 GAA
21 year old (NHL) - 1 GP - .750 SV%, 5.60 GAA
21 year old (AHL) - 11 GP - .900 SV%, 2.30 GAA

Neither goalies have impressive numbers on surface. Certainly nothing that stands out as elite or anything that suggests either is set to graduate to the NHL anytime soon. Such as, Carey Price's 22 GP in the AHL playoffs straight out of the WHL (at age 20), co-leading with captain Ajay Baines to help the Hamilton Bulldogs win the Calder Cup.

However, two noteworthy differences were found.

1) Numbers for the goalies on the same team:

Jeff Drouin Deslauriers - 22 GP- 917 SV% - 2.62 GAA
Chris Beckford-Tseu - 9GP, .903 SV% - 2.49 GAA

In this sense, it's discouraging for Dubnyk to be posting numbers well below his co-goaltender.

2) Shots Against/60

Dubnyk - 34.47 Shots Against/60
Schwarz - 22.95 Shots Against/60

Their Co-goaltenders:

Jeff Drouin Deslauriers - 31.67 Shots Against/60
Chris Beckford-Tseu - 25.61 Shots Against/60

We can infer that Springfield gives up alot of shots. Peoria, meanwhile does not. Dubnyk's 3.42 GAA (JDD 2.62) also may be suggesting that one can make the quality scoring chances argument - however, that variable is more likely to be drawn out once a larger sample size (GP) is obtained.

Whatever the case is, Schwarz numbers are simply not impressive. Nor were his junior numbers impressive (.900 in 56 GP in his only season in the WHL). Dubnyk, meanwhile did post relatively strong numbers in the dub (.907, .917, .912, .912 in the 4 seasons). I think it's fair to assert that if Dubnyk is going to be a legitimate starter in the NHL, his numbers have to pick up? No? Meanwhile, it seems JDD is ready to graduate to the NHL as a backup role.

It will be interesting to see what happens in coming years.

What say you?

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