Friday, April 11, 2008

Oilers Cap Situation, As of April 11, 2008


This is Lou Lamoriello. GM of the NJ Devils. In the summer of 2006, he was pressed into cap trouble after the signings of Alexandre Mogilny, Vladimir Malakhov and Dan McGillis the year previously. In the end, he was forced to trade Malakhov and a 1st round pick in exchange for effectively cap space.

Below is the Oilers cap hit, as of today.

FORWARDS

Penner (4.250) - Horcoff (3.600) - Hemsky (4.100)
Nilsson (1.833)- Gagner (1.625) - Cogliano (1.133)
Torres (2.250) - Stoll (RFA) - Pisani (2.500)
Moreau (2.000) - Brodziak (.500) - Stortini (RFA)

In the mix: Glencross (UFA), Reasoner (UFA), Pouliot (RFA)

TOTAL FOR SIGNED PLAYERS: 23.791M
REASONABLE ESTIMATES: Stoll (2.75M), Reasoner (1M), Pouliot (.650M), Glencross (1.6M), Stortini (.600M)
ADJUSTED TOTAL: 30.391M


DEFENCE
Souray (5.400) - Staios (2.700)
Pitkanen (RFA) - Gilbert (4.000)
Smid (0.786) - Grebeshkov (RFA)

Extras: Greene (1.15), Roy (.500)

TOTAL FOR SIGNED PLAYERS: 14.536M
REASONABLE ESTIMATES: Grebeshkov (1.65M), Pitkanen (4.5M)
ADJUSTED TOTAL: 20.686M



GOALTENDERS

Garon (1.1)
Roloson (3.667)

TOTAL FOR SIGNED PLAYERS: 4.767M

TOTAL FOR ENTIRE TEAM WITHOUT CONSIDERATION OF TRADES/BUYOUTS: 55.844M

Cap trouble indeed.

HYPOTHESIS

-One of Torres or Moreau will be traded.
-One of Reasoner, Stoll, Pouliot won't be brought back
-The Oilers may not sign Glencross at that price
-One of Greene/Smid may be moved.
-Pitkanen may indeed be moved if the Oilers don't want to pay him in the neighborhood of 4.5M

Could the Oilers trade say, 2009 1st + Souray for cap space? Should they? Would you?

10 comments:

Adam said...

The Oilers can not trade Souray as he has a NMC for the first three years of his contract.

Mr DeBakey said...

According to my calculations,
$55.844M is incorrect

You have 25 guys listed
one defenceman & one forward have to go

Plus, in my opinion, these three are each $500,000 too high:
Pitkanen (4.5M)
Glencross (1.6M)
Stoll (2.75M)
I wouldn't sign them for that amount
I just wouldn't

I might bonus Pitkanen up to $4.5, from a $3.5 base, on a one year deal

PunjabiOil said...

I included 3 extra forwards, because it's uncertain as to which 2 of the 3 forwards the Oilers will keep.

55.844M won't be the exact cap hit - it's a cap hit in the range.

As for defenceman, the Oilers will still have to pay Roy unless they buy him out at 1/3 of cap hit over double the length of the contract (500,000 * 1/3 = 166,667 over 2 years = 83,333 per year cap hit). If they choose to buy him in the minors, then he comes off the cap hit, but still receives his salary.

I think Pitkanen at 4.5M is reasonable, if it's long term and takes away some of the UFA years. Glencross will receive in the neighborhood of 1.5M, as he should. Stoll earned 2.2M - I believe he has to be tendered a qualifying offer, and will receive a little raise.

Adam: The Oilers can still trade Souray. Souray would just have to approve the deal. Maybe the LA Kings need a replacement for Blake? Wishing...

PDO said...

No way in hell Stoll gets a raise. Just no way in hell.

There's the difference right there. Cut him out of the picture and we're doing just fine.

Really though? The big problem?

Get rid of Souray. For anything. For a freaking 7th round pick. GET RID OF THAT CONTRACT. Send him to LA where he can bang whoever he wants, score on the PP and do fuck all to help his team win.. just get him right the fuck out of here at that ridiculous cap hit. Just a horrendous mistake.

GSC said...

it's a mistake the Oilers will have to live with...unless his shoulder is chronically bummed and he retires or goes on the LTIR.

I doubt it, Sheldon wants to play and trading him isn't an option. For one, no one will take on his contract. And attempting to trade him will paint an even more negative portrait of the organization.

PunjabiOil said...

No way in hell Stoll gets a raise. Just no way in hell.

Of course he gets a raise, unless he signs a 1 year deal, which makes him a UFA next summer.

I suppose the Oilers can hope Brodziak/Pouliot/Reasoner can replace Stoll, take the face-offs in the own end, etc - but I'm not sure if it makes sense to trade him at the moment as his trade value is at the low end of the scale.

Jonathan said...

//Plus, in my opinion, these three are each $500,000 too high:
Pitkanen (4.5M)
I wouldn't sign them for that amount
I just wouldn't //

People seem to forget that Pitkanen, in the midst of his worst offensive season since his rookie year, still put up a nicer PPG (26/63=.413ppg) than Gilbert (33/82=.402ppg). To figure that Pitkanen, a 270-game veteran at 25 (which makes him 8 months younger than Gilbert) isn't worth .5 million more than Gilbert (now a vet of 94 games at 25) boggles my mind.

Despite all the negatives about Joni (and there's quite a few), he's a far more gifted player than Gilbert, a far more unique player than Gilbert, and by the majority of statistical comparisons, a superior player both historically and this season. If this signing works like I think it will (ie, Joni's out because Gilbert's in) and the return on a Pitkanen trade isn't big, the Oilers will have made a clear error.

Jonathan said...

Here are some statistics that I think back me up on Pitkanen vs. Gilbert:

http://coppernblue.blogspot.com/2008/04/three-defencemen.html

PunjabiOil said...

Thanks for that Jonathan.

Good shit.

Hopefully Lowe meant what he said at the press conference today about Pitkanen.

doritogrande said...

I thought the new CBA stipulated that a qualifying offer could be tendered at 90% of a player's previous salary. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

If that third liner is making 2.75M next year, I lose faith in Oilerdom. Cut his ass if you have to, that frees up 2M in dough for Pitkanen. And I'm pretty cool with that. Though I'd prefer Pitkanen's money to come from cutting ties with Eeyore Torres.