Friday, April 11, 2008
I Don't Like The Terms of Tom Gilbert's New Contract
Unbelievable. From being one of the most over-performing contracts on the team, things changed.
I love the player. I think he's a player every team would love to lock up for 6 years.
But would every team sign him at these dollars?
This is another Dustin Penner contract. Pay-for-potential that may not otherwise be there. Tom Gilbert is not a 4M defenceman now. He very well maybe down the road, but he also may not be. He's also 25, so perhaps it's a case of what-you-see-is-what-you-get.
He scored a lot of goals - 13 to be exact. However, he boasted a 13.3 Shooting %, one that is highly unlikely to be sustainable over his career. He had 33 points with 2nd unit PP time. Definitely good, but at this age (25), you wonder how much upside there is.
I thought Lowe had the leverage in this negotiation. Gilbert only had 1 year of pro experience. Finding a comparable would be difficult, given Gilbert gives up 4 UFA years. You have to wonder though - whether taking him to arbitration (protecting against RFA offersheets) and a short term deal would have left the Oilers better off. Lets bypass the fact that the Oilers don't take him to arbitration - even if Gilbert received an RFA offersheet this was in the compensation range of 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
Just how many teams would be willing to throw 4.1M to Gilbert AND give up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd?
Lowe had the leverage, and he didn't utilize it.
Just exactly why he's a mediocre/sub-par GM
Above all, this sets a precedence for Joni Pitkanen, who is also 2 years away from unrestricted free agency. A much more proven player (46 and 43 point seasons), more TOI, tougher minutes, and younger than Gilbert. How much does he get? 4.5M? 5M? Or is there truth to the statement that Pitkanen could be on the way out, as speculated by Robin Brownlee and Bob Stauffer?
There are beginning to be too many contracts in the 4-5M range, and you wonder who is going to be pushed out the door when the pending free agents start needing contract extensions.
Perhaps Lowe is counting on a rising salary cap.
Whatever it is, at this point in time, I don't like the contract. Just when I started having faith in Lowe again.
Time for the player and GM to prove me wrong.
Posted by PunjabiOil at 11:13 AM