Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Part 01 - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly - Goaltenders

I'll be writing a series of posts (5 parts) analyzing the Oilers players in a nutshell.

Part 1 is on the topic of Goaltenders


The Good
-The .915 SV% is looking very respectable, ranked 12th in the league
-Clearly over-performing his cap hit (1.1M)
-Ridiculously strong performance in shoot-outs

The Bad
-Can tend to be a streaky goaltender

The Ugly


Things to Ponder
-He's eligible for a signing extension on July 1, 2008. Lowe has 4 options:
a) Extend him on July 1, 2008 as opposed to July 1, 2009 (UFA), speculating that
Garon will maintain this level of play in the extension years. This strategy incurs some level of risk.
b) Wait until some point in the season to extend him, providing more certainty of his expected play in the extension period years. This strategy lowers the risk, but it will cost more in the form of a higher cap hit
c) Do nothing until July 1, 2009. See what the market is offering and then make an offer if you feel confident in his abilities as a goaltender in the following years. This strategy is very questionable, given the fact that there are goaltenders are scarce in the free agent market.
d) Arrive at a decision to trade Garon at the 2009 trade deadline. Thank him for overperforming his contract, and invest your resources (time, effort, training) in Devon Dubnyk and Jeff-Drouin Deslauriers. This strategy makes sense only if you are out of playoff contention, and you are extremely confident in your prospect goaltenders

2) Roloson, Albert "Dwayne"

The Good

-Veteran leadership in the room full of youngsters

The Bad
-41st ranked SV% (.896)
-8 wins in 31 games
-Significant underperformance of the contract

The Ugly

-Negotiating a trade request via the press, possibly further damaging the city's reputation.

Things to Ponder
-With 1 year left on the contract (Salary 3.0M, Cap Hit 3.6667M), do you keep him around as a backup?
-Do you trade him, taking back an undesirable contract in the process (i.e. Marc Denis)
-Do you speculate he will rebound next season?

Part 02 will follow in the upcoming weeks

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