Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Did Alberta Taxpayers fund the Oilers Dressing Room Renovations?

Edmonton Castle Downs MLA Thomas Lukaszuk said financial support isn't out of the question, but he doubts Edmontonians believe the arena is a top spending priority for the capital, regardless of what the study concludes.

"The report is not looking at taxpayers' priorities -- it's looking from a Northlands perspective, from an NHL perspective, from a downtown revitalization perspective," the Tory MLA said.

The provincial government put up millions of dollars in grants to build the former Northlands Coliseum in the 1970s, and Calgary's Saddledome in the 1980s. And only last year, each venue got more provincial dollars for upgrades, including $10 million for Rexall Place that helped renovate the Oilers' and visitors' dressing rooms


Story can be read here

Ridiculous.

Absolutely ridiculous.

The Tough Questions With Kevin Lowe

Nope. Not me.

Robin Brownlee took up this task.

The Interview can be viewed on Oilersnation.

INTERVIEW

Monday, March 24, 2008

A Token of Appreciation



This is David Staples. A veteran writer for the Edmonton Journal, for 23 years now. A biography of him can be obtained here.

He was generous enough to invite members of the Oilogosphere to the Oilers game today against Minnesota. That too, executive style - the Edmonton Journal suites.

The game was great. As was discussing what hockey fans like to discuss -

The game of hockey.

Thanks David.

GAME THOUGHTS
-It's been too long to call Sam Gagner's strong play a streak. This is what he is.
-Who honestly expected Andrew Parise (Cogliano) to be posting strong numbers in the NHL at 20? Not only the points, but his +/- rating of 0 is 5th on the Oilers.
-Chemistry is underrated. Some players just tend to click together (Nilsson, Gagner, Cogliano) (Brodziak, Glencross, Stortini)
-Pouliot is settling in the NHL. Stoll got a 2nd assist tonight (at EV) so he's up to a whopping 9 points on EV. Pouliot has 6 in his last 10 games.
-Roloson was OK. That's what defines the bulk of his career. It'd be great if Garon gets healthy to play on Wednesday, as implied by MacT.
-Arena study report comes out tomorrow. Will be interesting, although I suspect the findings will be as expected.
-The Oilers now have tied the Flames in Wins, and passed Vancouver, games in hand notwithstanding. Who would have expected this in January? It's difficult to find negatives these days, and the Oilers should benefit from 8 fewer games against division opponents next year. This team is heading in the right direction. Kevin Lowe has won my respect - at least for now.
-Nothing worse than a flu/cold/sore throat. Life needs a fast forward button.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Robbie Schremp


Robbie Schremp:

Age: 21 (turns 22 in July)
Height/Weight: 5-11, 200 lbs
Natural Position: Center
Converted Position: Wing

Total: 66-18-46-64 (8th in AHL Scoring) -9 rating
EV: 8-20-28 Percentage of Total points: 43.75
PP: 10-26-36 Percentage of Total Points: 56.25

*Thanks to Bryanbryoil from HF for the stats breakdown

I couldn't find any TOI statistics for the AHL - If they are available, please feel free to point them out. However, given the fact that the majority of players' minutes are played on EV strength, those numbers are heavily skewed towards PP production rates over EV production rates. Of course this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone - we knew from the London days that Schremp is a talented player - we also knew that he obtains a majority of his points with the man advantage.

It's reasonable to assert that Robbie Schremp will be a strong PP specialist in the NHL. From what we've seen in the AHL, he seems more of playmaker, but he doesn't have any trouble lighting up the red lamp 5 on 4. At EV, it's very questionable whether he'll be a guy that can hold his head 5 on 5 if pushed into a top 6 role. At least so in the near future.

What Schremp honestly needs to do this summer is work hard on his skating and on his upper body strength to win battles. Of course to win battles, there initially has to be a strong level of desire to do so. Which is why in Guy Flaming's recent top 20 Oiler prospects article, the following lines were troubling:



However, those who make the decisions on Schremp seek more. His skating is still considered a weakness but apparently the bigger concern now is his “low compete level.” One report described Schremp by saying “There are players who win battles in the corner and some who lose those battles. Rob Schremp has absolutely no interest in the battle.”


There's absolutely no question about it - Soon to be 22, and only 5 years away from unrestricted free agency, Robbie Schremp needs to make adjustments (and quickly) or his career as an Edmonton Oiler will end prematurely.

And that...would be a shame.

Reporting live from MassMutual Center in Springfield, Massachusetts, PunjabiOil. Oilogosphere.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

The Tough Questions with Robin Brownlee



I recently approached columnist, Robin Brownlee for an interview. A veteran hockey writer who has covered the team with both the Edmonton Journal and Edmonton Sun, is now contributing for the Canadian Press, Metro Newspaper, and Oilersnation blog, combined with the TEAM 1260 on air. Journalism awards include 1985 and 1987 MacMillan Bloedel Award for editorial and column writing, 1997 Associated Press Award for enterprise reporting, 2001 Ron Collister Award as Sun Media sportswriter of the year and 2003-04 Professional Hockey Writers Association runner-up award for best hockey news story. He kindly agreed to the interview. Below is the email transcript.

Thanks Robin for taking time out of your busy schedule to answer a few questions and weigh your mind. I've been impressed by your journalism over the years, which inspired me to have you as a Q & A guest. Let’s begin

1) Tell me a bit about yourself. Are you an Oilers fan? If so, how did you become one? How did you get in the journalism business and what is the best part of the job? What has been the highlight of your journalism career? What are some of your other hobbies and interests?

I'm not a "fan" of the Oilers, but I've certainly grown to respect the franchise and the tradition built before I arrived in Edmonton in 1989. Having had the opportunity to become familiar with every franchise and a lot of the people who run them around the NHL, I can say fans here have a lot to be proud of. There's some quality people here.

The journalism business? Once I realized lack of natural ability and work ethic, not to mention a broken back at the age of 20, would make it nearly impossible to continue my mediocre athletic career beyond the level of weekend warrior, I had to find a way to stay near the games I loved -- pretty much all of them, but especially hockey, baseball and lacrosse. That's it, really.

Best part of the job has been the ability to make a good living doing something I enjoy and have not yet lost my zeal for. Corny, but true.

Highlights? Too many to list. All those Oilers playoff series against Dallas. The 2006 Stanley Cup final. Covering the WHL in the 1980s and watching youngsters like Mike Modano, Mark Recchi, Joe Sakic, Theoren Fleury and Cam Neely long before they'd earned a dime playing the game. Covering the Trappers of the PCL. Lots of rising stars there during my time -- Alex Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Tim Salmon, Jason Giambi -- and a couple of PCL titles before I left the beat. Almost running over Ken Griffey Jr. while speeding through a parking lot at spring training in Arizona. Visiting Dodgertown. The circus that was any Mike Tyson fight in the years I covered boxing. There's a few.

Hobbies and interests? My wife Analyn and sons Michael and Sam, all of whom have come into my life in the last four years and changed it forever. I've got a weakness for cars and have owned 70-something of them. I'm an avid and ridiculously inept golfer.

2) Many people have alleged that the Oilers control the media? Having a wealth of experience covering the Oilers, do you find truth in this statement? Have there been instances where you've been forced to remain “hush-hush?”


Like who? That said, there's some truth in the statement.
When you travel with the team day-in and day-out for seasons on end, there's some issues there. Objectivity is the goal, but you get to know certain people over time and friendships are struck. The trick is not allowing any personal relationship to influence what you write or how you write it. It's easier said than done. Some guys you like, some guys you don't.
It's a stretch to suggest there's an ongoing attempt to control the media, but those who follow the team the closest are certainly made aware when something is written that's deemed overly negative. Sometimes it's subtle, sometimes not.
I've never once been forced to keep quiet on anything. I have, however, sat on information or not used it right away while a story develops. That's my call, not theirs.

3) Ryan Smyth was a great ambassador for the city. So naturally speaking, fans (such as myself - http://punjabsoil.blogspot.com/2008/02/smyth-saga.html) are curious and trying to put the pieces of the puzzle together. How do you think the Smyth saga went down in terms of negotiations and eventually the
trade?


I know how the Smyth "saga" went down, but I'm not going to re-visit it. Information that's received with the understanding it's "off-the-record" has to stay that way -- unless you feel capable of doing your job without sources.

4) Did Kevin Lowe seek quantity over quality in the Chris Pronger deal to Anaheim? Is so, do you feel it was an adequate return, or should Lowe have waited out the situation a bit more? Was Lupul + Smith for Pitkanen + Sanderson an adequate recovery?

Not in my opinion. That Lupul was a mistake here is pure hindsight. Some of the other Ducks players who have turned into elite players weren't on the table for Pronger. Adequate return? At the time and under the circumstances, yes.
Waited? For what? Sitting on a player who has said he doesn't want to be here is a no-win proposition. Like he'll change his mind in six months? If anything, the value of what you can get back goes down the longer you wait when it becomes clear the impasse is permanent.
As for the Philadelphia trade, I was on the record leading up to it as not being the biggest Pitkanen fan, and that's an understatement. I wouldn't have made that deal. I still would not make that deal, although Pitkanen does tease you.

5) Speaking of Pitkanen, how are negotiations going with him? Has he shown enough consistency to warrant a long term contract? Is this a guy who wants to stay in Edmonton?

I haven't talked to agent Larry Kelly or Kevin Lowe about negations since before the trade deadline. I don't think Pitkanen has shown enough consistency to warrant the kind of dollars he wants. I'm not sold on him, particularly at anything over $3.5 million a season. I'll be convinced he wants to stay in Edmonton when he signs for 4-6 years for sane money.

6) Jarrett Stoll has had only 8 points on even-strength this season. He's eligible for Unrestricted Free agency in the summer of 2009. Given Stoll's declining play, do you feel the Oilers should commit to him long term? Or should they sign him for one year at lower salary, making him a free agency in the summer of 2009? Or should they move him this summer? What's the scoop on the Stoll front?

I'd sign Stoll for one year at this point. If he wants to leave for bigger money in 2009, and I suspect he might if a Californian team shows interest, that's fine. Can't move him this summer when his value is so low. It makes no sense.


7) Is there any chance the Oilers will be active in the unrestricted free agent market this summer?


Yes. But I'm not Bruce Garrioch, so forgive me for declining to throw out countless names so I can say I was right.

8) This past summer, many fans were upset with the Oilers passing up on Alexei Cherepanov in favour of project defenceman, Alexandre Plante. What is your opinion on that decision?


I thought it was a mistake and still do. I saw Sam Gagner as a sure-fire NHLer and a very safe pick. I'd have taken a chance with my other picks.

9) On February 20, 2007, Patrick LaForge was quoted in the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070219.wsptnhl19/BNStory/

["The cap has climbed dramatically," said LaForge, referring to growth from $39-million a year ago to $44-million this season. "Much more than people thought it would or I thought it would.”

"We're in Year 2 of a six-year deal and we'll see where it goes. But if the cap was a few million dollars less it would change the world for us."]

Given the fact the Oilers ended up spending close to the cap in the summer of 2007 (perhaps in response to Katz ownership bid) and Katz pledged to spend up to the cap annually if successful in taking over the Oilers, can we infer that this statement was intentionally misleading? What are your thoughts on this statement?


I don't see anything as intentionally misleading, but I think LaForge should stick to shaking hands and selling tickets and leave salary cap comments to people on the hockey operations side of things -- as in Kevin Lowe.

10) Have you personally met Daryl Katz? What's the opinion on him in the media circles? Any mention on the players feelings towards this ownership change? How do you the Oilers will benefit from Katz presence?

No, I haven't.
As for the players, it's all positive, but what are they going to say? "I hate the new owner, bring back Cal?"
As for benefits, the most obvious one is the potential to get the new arena built with Katz's commitment to putting $100 million towards it. Money is influence and he's got plenty of both. He's driven and he's competitive. This won't be a hobby for him. I doubt very much he'll settle for mediocrity.

11) There have been rumblings of Edmonton being an undesirable place for NHL players in recent years. Do you agree with the notion that Edmonton is a fishbowl and/or undesirable? From your interactions with the team and players, do you feel there are any players currently on the team that wish to be playing elsewhere?

Edmonton is a fishbowl, but not nearly as much as Toronto or Montreal. Certain players don't like the media attention here -- Mike Comrie comes to mind. Undesirable? It depends what you desire. If you want to golf during hockey season and want to be left alone outside the rink, this isn't the place for you.

12) Sheldon Souray was quoted as saying:

http://www.habsinsideout.com/2007/08/behind_the_scenes_of_sheldon_s/

[A day later, the Canadiens offered Souray a four-year deal commonly reported to be worth $22 million, numbers he says “are close.”

By then, he had similar or better offers elsewhere – eventually a half-dozen or so serious offers, Souray says, before Edmonton came out of nowhere, “not even kicking the tires” until July 11 – and felt he had slipped well down the Canadiens’ list of priorities.

“When Edmonton came into (talks), I honestly couldn’t believe that they’d be serious about spending that much money on a guy like me. It was a no-brainer. Everything was too good.

“It took me two minutes to say yes. I told my agent, ‘Have the papers faxed to sign before they change their mind.’]

Given this, does it seem as if the Oilers signed Souray for PR purposes (after striking out on forwards like Nylander, Kariya, Gomez)? Or was it indeed a legitimate hockey move to fill a team need?


PR? I think it was more a case of Kevin Lowe wanting to do something after the disaster of 2006-07 and not having a line-up of free agents begging to come here. I think it was a hockey move, but I thought he over-valued Souray -- my issue was with the length of the deal, given his injury history. As for the money, the Oilers came in heavy and offered more, substantially more, than any other team that kicked the tires on him.

13) Kevin Lowe made headline sports news with his RFA offersheets to Vanek and Penner. Do you feel there is possibility of "revenge" from teams like Anaheim or Buffalo? With Stoll, Gilbert, Nilsson, Grebeshkov, Stortini as RFA's this summer?

Yes. I'd be more worried about Pitkanen and Gilbert than anybody else. Stoll has little value right now. Stortini? You're kidding, right?

14) On the Oilogosphere, many references are made to advanced hockey statistics such as EV/60 (Even-strength points per 60 minutes), PPP/60 (Powerplay points per 60 minutes), EV+/EV- (+/- after filtering out empty net goals for/against situations). These numbers are updated daily http://www.behindthenet.ca How interested is the media in finding out more about these numbers? Do GM's take these numbers into account, or do they take more of a conventional "Eye-based" scouting approach when negotiating contracts and signing free agents?

I'm not the least bit interested in these numbers. I know what I see and I know what I think. I'll go with that over pages of statistics any day. As for GMs, that's a broad question. I suspect there's a wide range in answers for that.

15) What are your thoughts on the Edmonton Oil Kings inaugural season? Was it a successful season from a business point of view? Hockey point of view? Were the crowds underwhelming? Is Edmonton more of an Oilers town rather than a hockey town?


It went as expected. I don't know if it was succesful from a business point of view. From a hockey point of view, yes. The crowds were what I expected. And yes, Edmonton is more of an Oilers town than a hockey town.

16) Do you have any other comments you wish to add? Any message to fans who visit the Oilogosphere?

Keep reading. Keep writing. There's lots of insight, knowledge and talent out there and much of it has no formal journalism training. There's plenty of room for everyone.

Thanks once again for taking time out of your busy schedule to talk with the Oilogosphere and Oiler fans. Keep up the good work.

Cheers,

PunjabiOil

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

The Tough Questions with John MacKinnon



I recently approached Edmonton Journal columnist, John MacKinnon for an interview. He kindly agreed. His bio and Edmonton Journal page can be viewed here. Below is the email transcript.

Thank you for taking time out of your busy schedule to answer a few questions and weigh your mind. I've been impressed by your journalism over the course of the season, which inspired me to have you as a Q & A guest. Let’s begin.

1) How did you become an Oilers fan? How did you get in the journalism business? What's the best part of your job? What are some of your other hobbies and interests?


For starters, I am not an Oilers fan. I just cover them. Over the course of my career, I have also covered the Montreal Canadiens, for the Canadian Press, and the Ottawa Senators for the Citizen. I covered Ottawa's successful campaign to land an NHL franchise and the first two seasons of the expansion Senators as the beat reporter.

As for how my career unfolded, I wanted to be a sportswriter since I was a kid. I read the Montreal papers, French and English, as a kid, and also regularly read the New York papers, growing up.

My heroes were Red Smith, who won a Pulitzer Prize, Jimmy Cannon and John Lardner, son of the journalist and short fiction author Ring Lardner. Ring Lardner covered the 1919 'Black Sox,' in Chicago.

In John Sayles' movie treatment of Eliot Asinof's seminal book, Eight Men Out, Sayles himself played Lardner.
I always have been keenly aware of the tradition of sportswriting and read the work of as many of the greats of the past as I could.

I majored in journalism at Concordia University in Montreal, working part-time for the Canadian Press all through school. (I later obtained a master's in media administration at Syracuse University.)

For three straight summers (1978-79-80) I compiled the Expos home box scores for the Associated Press, for example. I also did some stringing for the CP, doing the occasional assignment solo and helping out at Canadiens and Alouettes games as a quotes runner.

My first full-time job in the field was in Montreal with United Press Canada, a wire service affiliated with UPI, back in the day. Both services are defunct.

I then worked for 10 years for CP, based in Montreal. Since then I have worked in Ottawa and here in Edmonton, with a two-year detour as communications manager for Hockey Canada (1996-1998) in Calgary, along the way.

I was Journal sports editor from 1999 — 2003 and have written a column from 2003 onward.

The best part of the job is being close to the immediacy and the human drama of sport and telling interesting stories about the people in that world. It's hard but rewarding to do it well and it rarely feels like work, in the 9-to-5 sense. Of course, the hours in the job are elastic, to say the least. Nights, weekends.

Apart from work, I like to work out.
I read as widely as I possibly can across a broad spectrum of interests. I try to sop up as much culture as I can — movies, theatre, dance, visual arts and lots and lots of music (I'm a jazz buff.)

2) On February 20, 2007, Patrick LaForge was quoted in the Globe and Mail:

http://www.shns.com/shns/g_index2.cfm?action=detail&pk=HKN-SPENDING-02-20-07

["The cap has climbed dramatically," said LaForge, referring to growth from $39-million a year ago to $44-million this season. "Much more than people thought it would or I thought it would.”

"We're in Year 2 of a six-year deal and we'll see where it goes. But if the cap was a few million dollars less it would change the world for us."]

Given the fact the Oilers ended up spending close to the cap in the summer of 2007 (perhaps in response to Katz ownership bid) and Katz pledged to spend up to the cap annually if successful in taking over the Oilers, can we infer that this statement was misleading? What are your thoughts on this statement?


First, in reading the Naylor piece, it seems to me this was written not in Feb. 2007 but Feb. 2006. LaForge is quoted, for example, talking about an 89 cent dollar. But the dollar is at par with the U.S. greenback right now. And the cap is $50.3 million, not $44 million, which was the ceiling last season. Plus, this is season three following the lockout, and hence, it is now year three of a six-year CBA.

So, I think the comments are at least a year old.
The cap is no panacea to ward off economic trouble entirely. But I think it does level the playing field by narrowing the immense payroll gap that once existed.

As the cap climbs — owing, significantly, to full arenas north of the border — small-market teams still will be squeezed, particularly if they consistently miss the playoffs. That's where the big profits always have been, since the players' salary payments cease by season's end.

I don't think the Oilers have any urgent current issues owing to the $50.3 million cap, though.

3) Have you personally met Katz? What's the opinion on him in the media circles? Any mention on the players feelings towards this ownership change? How do you the Oilers will benefit from Katz presence?

I have crossed paths with Daryl Katz many times. He's a quiet spoken, decent, family man who is extremely bright and driven. And community oriented.

He knows many of the old-time Oilers, who count him as a friend. He also knows a number of the current Oilers, (Moreau, Staios, Horcoff) who regard him well and believe he'll be a good owner.

The biggest impact Katz can have in a pizzazz sense is helping to finance a new arena, then adding his marketing muscle to programming it for all events, not just the Oilers. Keep in mind, Katz made his billions by growing Rexall continent-wide. He is a 'branding' expert and sport is all about that these days.

For the team on an ongoing basis, I think having a decisive, deep-pockets business heavyweight in charge can help the club with intangibles, like attracting free agents, shortening the line between thought and action from owner to GM (and vice-versa), and so forth.

I also think he can fortify the Oilers front office, maybe try to replicate that Detroit set-up a lot more easily than the previous administration.

The EIG was right for its time and did a fabulous service for Edmonton, but it can be hard to maintain consensus as the years pile up and, some years, the losses.

4) Edmontonians are keenly interested in the new downtown arena project and public funding. How much of a role do you think the public will play in the funding process? Is the project in stages ahead of what the general public knows?

It will be interesting to see what, if any, public money (taxpayers' money) Mayor Stephen Mandel's feasibility study foresees.

The biggest role for the public will be patronizing the activities in and around the arena — the games, the bars, restaurants, shops, on and on. Depending on what the final project looks like.

I have no doubt the game plan is moving faster than information is flowing to the public. We'll know more later this month when Mandel unveils the feasibility study.

5) There have been rumblings of Edmonton being an undesirable place for NHL players in recent years. Do you agree with the notion that Edmonton is a fishbowl and/or undesirable? From your interactions with the team and players, do you feel there are any players, besides Roloson, currently on the team that wish to be playing elsewhere?

Pronger's abrupt departure, literally sprinting for the exit hours after a spectacularly successful season had ended, caused much damage to a city with an inferiority complex and one that is undeniably geographically isolated from the North American mainstream.

A superstar with a five-year deal bolting after one year from a Cup finalist raises eyebrows, for sure. It hurt.
Any Canadian city — and a few U.S. ones — put intense scrutiny on their hockey team. I come from Montreal, where the scrutiny comes in both official languages and is, if anything, far more intense and unrelenting than it is in Edmonton.

The upside to the scrutiny is the sheer, over-the-moon energy in the community when the getting is good. Not to mention the roar in the rink through a playoff run.

That said, there are some players who don't want to come to Edmonton, just as there have been many free agents (Shanahan, Smyth, and Briere) who spurned Montreal. Calgary, Vancouver and Ottawa don't bat 1,000 in free-agent signings, either.

A big selling point for any team is the ability to win a Stanley Cup. Edmonton's chances are improving, if you ask me.
In the wake of losing Pronger, Peca, Samsonov, Spacek et al, the Oilers chances took an immediate, if not temporarily catastrophic hit. But things are turning around. It takes time.

I think Roloson's big issue is playing, not Edmonton per se. He came here — swapped for a first-round draft pick, remember — to be The Guy. He lived up to his end of the bargain back in '05-06.

To be supplanted as No. 1, to sit for long stretches and listen to trade rumors (or rumors that he is untradeable) isn't easy.

6) Do you feel the Sheldon Souray signing was a legitimate hockey move, or one that was inspired for PR purposes?


I think Souray's signing was an overpayment, which I wrote last summer. That said, I think it was largely a hockey move. The Oilers power play had suffered and Souray was perceived as something of a power-play stud, given his success in Montreal.

I also think Lowe overloaded on puck-moving defenceman — a widely acknowledged problem last season — with the view that he might move one of Pitkanen or Souray (or someone else) as the season wore on. Injuries to key dudes, including Souray, blew that plan up.

7) Kevin Lowe made headline sports news with his RFA offersheets to Vanek and Penner. Do you feel there is possibility of "revenge" from teams like Anaheim or Buffalo? With Stoll, Gilbert, Nilsson, Grebeshkov, Stortini as RFA's this summer?

There's no question Lowe now is a target for a tit-for-tat signing. I'm not sure the likes of Grebeshkov and Stortini are likely targets for offer sheets. A team overpaying for those guys would be mighty reckless, if you ask me.

Stoll might have been at risk, but if you were a rival GM, given his tepid season, would you break the bank to sign him?

I think Lowe will sign the guys he wants to sign from this group.

8) What do you think the best move Kevin Lowe has made since the lockout? Worst move? How did you feel with regards to the 4 year extension Kevin Lowe received back in October? Is the team destined for good things in the upcoming years?

Immediately following the lockout, Lowe was Tom Cruise in his early years — he made all the right moves.
Pronger, Peca, Spacek, Samsonov, Roloson, Tarnstrom all came for a reasonable, if not eminently affordable price. He was clicking and the club just about won the Stanley Cup.

Since then, life has been tougher, to say the least.
Worst move may be the failed offer sheet to Vanek and the successful one for Penner. Lowe felt he had to replace the goals lost when Smyth was traded (I don't count that as the worst move, by the way, because it was a hardball negotiation under pressure of deadline that didn't work out, pure and simple.).

As years go by, Oilers fans may regret the loss of draft picks far more than they celebrate the achievements of Penner.

But, as with the Pitkanen trade and the Souray deal, the Oilers were trying to fill the massive hole left by the damaging departure of Pronger.

9) On the Oilogosphere, many references are made to advanced hockey statistics such as EV/60 (Even-strength points per 60 minutes), PPP/60 (Powerplay points per 60 minutes), EV+/EV- (+/- after filtering out empty net goals for/against situations). These numbers are updated daily http://www.behindthenet.ca
How interested is the media in finding out more about these numbers? Do GM's take these numbers into account, or do they take more of a conventional "Eye-based" scouting approach when negotiating contracts and signing free agents?


I think the MSM is less interested in such stats than the bloggers, but the gap probably is narrowing.
GMs and player-personnel types look at all factors in assessing their people. Their work has become way more systematic and computerized over the years than people know.

One area they place emphasis on, one which is unavailable to those not close to the teams and players, is character, personality, human qualities.

Of course, human traits are key in any workplace, including pro sports.

10) What are your thoughts on the Edmonton Oil Kings inaugural season? Was it a successful season from a business point of view? Hockey point of view? Were the crowds underwhelming? Is Edmonton more of an Oilers town rather than a hockey town?

I did not attend any of their games, so I can't offer any comment. I'm sure that will change, going forward, and I certainly am a fan of major junior hockey.

But this year, it wasn't a priority for me.

11) Do you have any other comments you wish to add?


I peruse the Oilogosphere regularly, as you may know, and believe the bloggers make an important contribution to the hockey dialogue.

Thanks for the opportunity to make my own modest contribution. I enjoyed this.

Thanks once again for taking time out of your busy schedule to talk with the Oilogosphere and Oiler fans. Keep up the good work with the Edmonton Journal.

Cheers,

PunjabiOil

Monday, March 17, 2008

Forgive and Forget


STORY

Some noteworthy excerpts:

" Aw, sometimes I exaggerated calls," he will admit. " It's not like you think about it -- your instinct just takes over. You are so into the game. And getting excited isn't a bad thing, is it? You get so wrapped up in the game, so ? into the moment."


McGeough's moments include that first playoff game: " I fell flat on my ass right off the draw."

That first Stanley Cup final, Carolina-Edmonton in 2006: " It took so long to get there. Probably the best feather in my cap.

" Edmonton is one of the best places to work in the league," he adds. " Anyone who cares that much about their hockey? How can you not love working there?"


McGeough thought he saw Horcoff pull the puck back with his hand. Replays showed he did not, and within minutes after the game McGeough 'fessed up that he was wrong. He manned up to the press, and the player. He felt awful then, and still does now, nearly 2½ years later.

"I screwed the call up. It was flat out wrong. Didn't see it the right way," he said. "Shawn Horcoff is such a nice man. I said, 'I apologize. I screwed that call up.' He said, 'You haven't made many mistakes in your career. Don't worry about it.'"


"Aw, he's a good ref. He's not retarded," MacTavish said, ridiculing his own ill-conceived remark. "You ref as many games as he has, there is going to be an incident here and there."

Ales Hemsky (In Pictures)

As a KID (Well, he certainly looks like one)



A Grown up Ales

Friday, March 14, 2008

Kevin Lowe likely has little input on draft day


As per Gare Joyce's book, "Future Greats and Heartbreaks," page 241.

Most general managers give total authority to their chief amateur scouts or scouting directors


In Edmonton's case, it's Stu MacGregor [Thanks to Lowetide for the correction]

Part 02 - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly - Defenceman


Part 02 of the 05 piece series.

1) Smid, Ladislav

The Good
-After a rough first half, has showed some progression in the new year. Since January 3, he's been holding his fort at EV (-2).

The Bad
-Failed to crack the team out of training camp
-Offensive numbers show little (no) progression. From 77-3-7-10 last year, he's at 54-0-4-4 this season.

The Ugly
-The stretch from December 2 to January 2 in which he was a -10, getting beat on the back door play repeatedly

Things to Ponder
-If the Oilers make no changes to the defense this off season, there will be 8 of them on one-way contracts. Could the Oilers use Smid as part of a trade package?
-Does he have any offensive potential?
-What is his single biggest strength on the ice? I'm stumped.

2) Greene, Matt

The Good
-The 2.36 GA ON /60 represents strong improvement, and is the team best
-Seems to have settled down 5 on 5

The Bad
-Like Smid, the little offensive game he had took a step back. 77-1-9-10 last year to 34-0-1-1

The Ugly
-Lower body Injury that sidelined him for 37 games

Things to Ponder
-If the Oilers make no changes to the defense this off season, there will be 8 of them on one-way contracts. Could the Oilers use Smid as part of a trade package?
-He will be a UFA in 2 years. Has he made enough progression to warrant keeping with Petry and Chorney close to graduation?

3) Roy, Mathieu

The Good
-In a limited sample size, has a respectable 3.14 GF ON/60

The Bad
-In a limited sample size, has a dis-respectable 3.14 GA ON/60

The Ugly
-It's been a season of injuries
-One way contract in which he will earn $500,000 next season.

Things to Ponder
-Does Katz bury his salary in the minors next season, or is he kept as press box material as a 7th defenceman?

4) Grebeshkov, Denis

The Good
-Strong two way play in 2008.
-10 of his 14 points have been in the new year. Good first pass, and offensive instincts
-GA ON/60 is a respectable 2.50
-Team leading Corsi number (omitting Roy) at 1.4

The Bad
-A bit of a tendency to pass when in a good opportunity to shoot.

The Ugly
-A rough start. -8 in the first 11 games of the season.

Things to Ponder
-Do the Oilers take him into arbitration to protect against any RFA Offersheets?
-Do the Oilers lock him up long term with hopes of contract over performance?

5) Staios, Steve

The Good
-Veteran presence, teaching rookies
-Effective PK

The Bad
-3.30 GA ON/60 and a -21 EV+/EV- perhaps could be an indication that he's a declining player
-His offensive numbers 70-7-7-14 are his worst totals since 2001-2002

The Ugly
-N/A

Things to Ponder
-Does Kevin Lowe move Staios and his 3 remaining years of the contract this off season?
-Kevin Lowe got $1 for $0.30 in the Smith and Niinimaa trades. Is Staios a declining asset, or are his numbers significantly influenced by his defensive partners?

6) Pitkanen, Joni

The Good
-Strong corsi numbers based on team ranking
-Shows dominance and creativity on the ice at times
-Has logged up minutes on numerous occasions (>20 min TOI)

The Bad
-1.68 PPP/60 continue to illustrate that Pitkanen isn't a strong PP performer
-Inconsistent play. Had a good streak from Nov 30 - Jan 2 (+8, 10 points)
-Offensive numbers took a huge step back. From 46 points in 58 games in 2005-2006, to 43 in 77 in 2006-2007, down to 20 in 53.

The Ugly
-Questions about his heart and work ethic arising in the media circles
-Agent rumoured to be asking in the neighborhood of 4.5M range.

Things to Ponder
-Do you sign him long term if given the opportunity? Are the rewards worth the risk?
-Is he committed? Is he coachable? Is he durable?

7) Souray, Sheldon


The Good
-He hasn't been an EV nightmare, and has a respectable (team relative) 2.42 GA ON/60
-Logged up TOI (all games in which he did not get injured in, were above 20 min TOI)
-Veteran presence
-PR purpose

The Bad
-He was brought in to make a difference on the PP. His 1.72 PPP/60 is a big drop off from the 7.0+/60 posted last year. Of course it's a small sample size.

The Ugly
-Shoulder injuries that cut his season to 26 games.
-Injuries have been the story of his career

Things to Ponder
-Is his shoulder injury chronic?
-Can he stay healthy next year?
-Can he improve the PP significantly next season and provide some stability on defence?

8) Gilbert, Tom

The Good
-Strong EV scoring. Respectable PPP/60 (2.92) for a rookie.
-Ability to log minutes, keep penalties to a minimum (14 PIM)
-Showing potential to improve in upcoming years

The Bad
-N/A

The Ugly
-Had a rough month in January. Expected though, with rookies.

Things to Ponder
-Does Kevin Lowe take him to arbitration to prevent an RFA Offersheets?
-Does Lowe lock him up long term, with the player 2 years away from free agency?
-Can Gilbert replace Stoll on the point on the PP?

*Omitted - Dick Tarnstrom (traded) and Alan Rourke (limited sample size)
*Numbers obtained from behindthenet.ca

Part 03 and 04 will tackle the forwards. Part 05 will tackle management/coaching.

Cheers.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

The Oilers Cap Situation for 2008-2009 as of March 12, 2008



YK Oil had a nice post on HF with respect the Oilers squad next year. This inspired me to analyze the Oilers cap numbers for next season. I will quote his post here, and then discuss the cap situation for 2008-2009.

The issues are many but the biggest one imo is Horcoff returning healthy.

- we know Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky is a good outscoring #1 line
- we know the kids should make a fantastic #2 soft minute line
- we know Torres or Moreau and Pisani make for a good 3rd line
- we know Glencross - Brodziak - Stortini make a good, competitive, 4th line

Hence it revolves, first, around Horcoff. If he is good to go next year then our forward lines, oddly enough, should take care of themselves.


GENERAL DISCUSSION

It's no secret that we absolutely need Horcoff to be healthy. I don't think over the long run (as good as the Oilers have been recently), this team could survive without him.

While YKOIL's list seems great on paper, I wonder how the Oilers will fare next year with respect to injuries. On those hilly grounds, I sense we should bring back insurance in Marty Reasoner for another year at similar salary.

POSSIBILITY TO DIP INTO THE UFA MARKET

There's always the risk of one of the younger players hitting in a slump in their sophomore season. For that reason, it may be wise to add another top 6 player with more NHL experience. Cory Stillman, Brian Rolston, Martin Straka, Radim Vrbata, Brendan Shannahan, Vaclav Prospal, David Vyborny, Kristian Huselius should all be options looked upon in the UFA market. Is there enough room in the cap to allow such a move? Lets go on a voyage and find out.

The salary cap in 2008-2009 will be ~54-55M. Lets use the average and dub it 54.5M The Oilers have 33.714M committed, with Pitkanen, Grebeskhov, Gilbert, Pouliot, Glencross, Nilsson, Stortini, Stoll, Reasoner, Sanderson to sign (or replace). Of course this adds up to 16 forwards - so the Oilers will presumably let Sanderson and another forward go.

ESTIMATES

4.000M for Pitkanen, 1.750M to Grebeshkov, 2.500M to Gilbert, 0.650M to Pouliot (one way), 1.000M to Glencross, 1.750M to Nilsson, .700M to Stortini, and 2.500M to Stoll. If Reasoner is brought back, he's making .900M, and the unlikely event Sanderson is brought back, .850M.

Making the assumption the Oilers don't bring back Sanderson, and decide to keep Pouliot over Reasoner - we're at 14.850M to the RFA's/UFA's.

Lets assume my numbers are too generous. Gilbert gets 3M. Nilsson 2.250M. Stortini gets .715M. TOTAL: 1.15M net addition.

We're at 16.000M

THE CALCULATION OF OVERALL CAP HIT

That's around 33.714M + 16.000M + 1.000M bonus cushion (Gagner and Cogliano) = 50.714M with 14 forwards, 8 defenceman, and 2 goalies. You bury Mathieau Roy's salary in the minors, and you're left with 50.214M and a sufficient 7 defenceman.

THE CAP ISN'T A SNAPSHOT! IT'S A MOVIE!

Salary management must take into account of the future years' cap situation. Horcoff should be locked up this summer, and will likely receive north of 5M+. If the Oilers brass is confident in Garon, he too will get a sizable raise, perhaps in the Ilya Bryzgalov territory (4.25M). Losing Roloson's 3.6667M cap hit will help, but will not be enough on a stand alone basis.

All signs point out to Jarrett Stoll being moved. Other possibilities are Torres, Moreau, or Staios.


Stoll is set to become a UFA in 1 year, possibly long term injury issues, lack of offense on EV (only 8 points this year), and a good core of young centers within the organization. No sugar coating the fact that losing him hurts the PP - but at the same time, there are limited options - you either sign him to a 1 year deal, or 3+ year deal. Unless you can get him to sign a long term deal with a minimal raise, all signs point out to a shorter term deal being logical. Perhaps he WILL bounce back to the player he was pre-concussion - holding his fort at EV, though not taking advantage of the soft minutes. If he's traded, perhaps a draft day deal including him with the Anaheim's 1st to move up should be looked at.

I'd wouldn't mind moving Moreau. He's a quality player, but I don't believe that he's anywhere near performing his contract figure. It's been 3 years since the lockout, and he's had trouble staying healthy throughout those years. That 2M of cap space is better served with Glencross who is half the price,similar results, and half the number of "Lloyd Christmas-esque dumb" penalties.

Torres is an interesting player. He seems to have issues with consistency, but his production is mostly on EV. Something that's probably more valuable than the 2007-2008 Jarrett Stoll.

Staios is a veteran defenceman that I'd imagine Lowe wants to keep around for a little while longer before some of the younger defenceman prove night in and night out that he is redundant in the organization.

Whatever the case, I expect at least one of these 4 to be moved by the summer of 2009 (possibly 2) in an effort to increase flexibility for the Horcoff/Garon extensions, and then the soon to be "ineligible for team elected arbitration" Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano in the summer of 2010.

BACK TO THE QUESTION - A PLAYA IN THE UFA MARKET?

With an estimated 50.214M committed - that leaves effectively [54.5M CAP -50.214M committed - 2.5M (~5%) Cushion space for injuries/trades = a whopping 1.786M to spend ]

Certainly not enough to make a big play in July.

Unless the Oilers unload a mid-range salary (i.e. Stoll, Torres, Moreau, Staios), they simply won't have the flexibility to dip into the UFA market. If the Oilers do decide to move one of those guys and jump in the free agent market, they must stick to short term contracts (no > than 2 years) as they need to keep the flexibility for Horcoff/Garon/Gagner/Cogliano extensions.

Guys like Cory Stillman, Brian Rolston, Martin Straka, Radim Vrbata, Brendan Shannahan, David Vyborny, Michael Ryder, Ladislav Nagy *may* fit this catagory.

The Souray contract certainly isn't looking good at the moment. And right now you almost wish Kevin Lowe have signed Ladislav Nagy for a 1 year, 5.5M contract and kept the picks over Dustin Penner (who showed minimal progression over last season and is looking more of a complimentary player every counting day).

It will be an interesting summer. Salary cap (or budget) management is something all GM's must engage in. Manage it well, and you will likely see the results in the points column. Screw it up...and well...you're screwed.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Monday, March 10, 2008

Riley Nash - Curb that Enthusiasm...Just A Little


STORY

Men’s Ice Hockey 2007-08 All-Ivy

First Team
F - *Lee Jubinville, Princeton (Jr., Edmonton, Alberta)
F - Nick Johnson, Dartmouth (Sr., Calgary, Alberta)
F - Sean Backman, Yale (So., Cos Cob, Conn.)
D - *Mike Moore, Princeton (Sr., Calgary, Alberta)
D - Sean Hurley, Brown (Sr., Rutland, Vt.)
G - Kyle Richter, Harvard (So., Calgary, Alberta)

Second Team

F - Colin Greening, Cornell (So., St. John's, Newfoundland)
F - Brett Wilson, Princeton (Calgary, Alberta)
F - Riley Nash, Cornell (Fr., Kamloops, British Columbia)
F - Mike Taylor, Harvard (Sr., Maple Grove, Minn.)
D - Evan Stephens, Dartmouth (Fr., Bessemer, Mich.)
D - Dave MacDonald, Harvard (Sr., Halifax, Nova Scotia)
G - Zane Kalemba, Princeton (So., Saddle Brook, N.J.)

Honorable Mention

F - Topher Scott, Cornell (Sr., Buffalo Grove, Ill.)
F - Ryan Garbutt, Brown (Jr., Winnipeg, Manitoba)
D - Tom Dignard, Yale (So., Reading, Mass.)
D - Alex Biega, Harvard (So., Montreal, Quebec)
G - Ben Scrivens, Cornell (So., Spruce Grove, Alberta)


________________________________

REASONS TO CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM

-Clearly indicates a weak conference. Hands up, how many players besides Riley Nash did you recognize?
-A further look reveals that only 5 out of the 18 above listed names have been drafted. Riley Nash (1st), Nick Johnson (3rd), Alex Biega (5th), Colin Greening (7th), Dave McDonald (7th).
-Nick Johnson put up 35 points in 35 games (1 PPG) in his 18 year old season. It appears his University career is almost over, and he may never play in the NHL.
-Numbers similar to Kris Chucko (24th overall, 2004 draft) at 17 years of age. Chucko then put up 21 in 43 at the University of Minnesota at 18 years of age. The question becomes - what sort of numbers would Nash post playing against the best in the NCAA?
-Riley Nash didn't make the Team Canada World Junior squad. Hell, he wasn't even invited to the try-outs. Andrew Cogliano made it at 18.

REASONS TO GET EXCITED
-The scouts. Many had him ranked as a 1st round selection, and that should speak for the confidence they have in his ability.
-Strong praise from his coach in Salmon Arm (BCHL) - lead team in scoring, albeit not to extent of Travis Zajac
-Hyperbole or not, he has impressed the Oilers brass, most notably Kevin Prendergast.
-An excellent ''all-around game'' from numerous sources.


OVERALL/CONCLUSION

Perhaps Riley Nash is just putting points (29 in 32 GP) against nobodies. Look, I'm not saying he won't be an NHL player - it's just that his numbers have to be looked at in context before declaring him guaranteed top 6 material. Perhaps he has the top 6 upside - I'd like to believe so. It will be an interesting development in the upcoming years.

How about Chris Higgins (Yale University) as a comparable? (Credit to Choppystride at Lowetide's for the suggestion) Higgins put up 31 in 27 games at 18. Then 41 in 28 games the next year. He followed that up with 2 years in the AHL, before finally finding a role in the NHL (Montreal). Given the fact Nash is clearly playing in a weaker conference, is it reasonable to expect him to be posting a PPG mark ''well north of 1" next year, akin to Chris Higgins? And make Team Canada World Junior Squad (he'll be 19)?

Your opinion is valued.

Saturday, March 08, 2008

Goals For and the Standings

The Edmonton Oilers have scored 185 goals (including SO) thus far in the 2007-2008 season.

The following playoff teams are in comparable range:
Calgary has 188 (12 games over .500). San Jose has 182 (18 games over .500). Anaheim has 173 (13 games over .500). Minnesota has 185 (11 games over .500). Colorado has 186 (11 games over .500)

The difference between these teams and the Oilers?

The Oilers allow too many goals against. 206 to be exact. 2nd worst in the Conference, only behind LA.

What does this mean?/Other notes

-The talk of the Oilers needing more scoring to win hockey games isn't neccessarily true. What they need is more outscorers.
-What they need is more veterans like Pisani who aren't on the ice too much for GA. This is why many were advocating signing Mike Johnson
-Losing Pisani until December was a massive loss. Losing Moreau for all but 26 games has hurt the team. Losing Raffi Torres, who is a strong EV player as numbers show, is also not a good thing.
-It's also no coincidence that ever since Horcoff's injury, the 1st line has suffered (Hemsky -9. Penner -10)
-Goaltending early on contributed to the Oilers woes. On the flip side, there is a possibilty Garon will not match this season's performance level next year.
-The Gagner's, Cogliano's, Brodziak's, Grebeshkov's, Smid's, and Greene's, have up until recenlty, just killed the Oilers in the short run
-Veteran's in Stoll and Reasoner have been massive disappointments


Overall Delivering Message

-The Oilers being 26th in the league should not be surprising at all.
-Rookies rarely help your team win hockey games, and for a winning team, you typically bring them up slowly in singles rather than in bunches
-After around 50 games, the rookies and younger players have demonstrated improvement and an ability to tread water in the NHL.
-This will help next year, but there is still lots of work to be done to make this team a playoff contender. 2009-2010 is more realistic. It's simply put, not a quick process.

So what do we do?

We patiently wait.

Friday, March 07, 2008

HAHAHAHHAHAHA!

NOTE: Click on the image if you can't read the words clearly.









Thursday, March 06, 2008

Robert Nilsson By The Numbers - Getting It Done


I don't understand why the myths on Robert Nilsson continue to exist.

"He's not a good 5 on 5 player"


"He's too soft"


"He's a poor defensive player"


"He's one dimensional"


I don't pay too much stock into fans' scouting reports - they tend to overexaggerate and make a movie based on a few snapshots - in the end, it's about the numbers and counting results.

How about these numbers:

-26th in the league in EV PTS/60.
-2nd on the Oilers in EV PTS/60 - only behind Shawn Horcoff
-5th on the Oilers with regards to EV GA/60 - only behind Stortini, Glencross, Torres, and surprisingly Matt Greene.
-Team leading +8 EV+/EV- (+/- after filtering out PP GA, and empty net goals against).

In Summary: Robert Nilsson is murdering his opponents 5 on 5, soft minutes or not. His EV +/- is very respectable on a poor 5 on 5 team, and the guy simply creates offense when given a chance.

He's a guy you look at locking up 4-5 years at a respectable figure - setting yourself up with an employee who will overperform the contract terms.

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Part 01 - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly - Goaltenders



I'll be writing a series of posts (5 parts) analyzing the Oilers players in a nutshell.

Part 1 is on the topic of Goaltenders

1) GARON, MATHIEU

The Good
-The .915 SV% is looking very respectable, ranked 12th in the league
-Clearly over-performing his cap hit (1.1M)
-Ridiculously strong performance in shoot-outs

The Bad
-Can tend to be a streaky goaltender

The Ugly

N/A

Things to Ponder
-He's eligible for a signing extension on July 1, 2008. Lowe has 4 options:
a) Extend him on July 1, 2008 as opposed to July 1, 2009 (UFA), speculating that
Garon will maintain this level of play in the extension years. This strategy incurs some level of risk.
b) Wait until some point in the season to extend him, providing more certainty of his expected play in the extension period years. This strategy lowers the risk, but it will cost more in the form of a higher cap hit
c) Do nothing until July 1, 2009. See what the market is offering and then make an offer if you feel confident in his abilities as a goaltender in the following years. This strategy is very questionable, given the fact that there are goaltenders are scarce in the free agent market.
d) Arrive at a decision to trade Garon at the 2009 trade deadline. Thank him for overperforming his contract, and invest your resources (time, effort, training) in Devon Dubnyk and Jeff-Drouin Deslauriers. This strategy makes sense only if you are out of playoff contention, and you are extremely confident in your prospect goaltenders

2) Roloson, Albert "Dwayne"


The Good

-Veteran leadership in the room full of youngsters

The Bad
-41st ranked SV% (.896)
-8 wins in 31 games
-Significant underperformance of the contract

The Ugly

-Negotiating a trade request via the press, possibly further damaging the city's reputation.

Things to Ponder
-With 1 year left on the contract (Salary 3.0M, Cap Hit 3.6667M), do you keep him around as a backup?
-Do you trade him, taking back an undesirable contract in the process (i.e. Marc Denis)
-Do you speculate he will rebound next season?

Part 02 will follow in the upcoming weeks

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Bob McKenzie on Andrew Cogliano - April 15, 2005



As someone who "saw him good" (his son was Cogliano's linemate at junior), Bob McKenzie has a pretty high opinion on Cogliano.

POST

As always, entitled to your opinion because that's what makes the world go round, but I watched him play about 60 plus games this year and let me assure you it is my opinion that there isn't a scared bone in his body (very, very competitive when it matters most) and he regularly pays the price to score goals or to set them up. As with all offensive players, his defensive game needs some work, but I would not say it's a really weak part of his game at all. IMO, the only knock he's going to get is his size, but a lot of scouts I've talked to about him aren't all that concerned for two reasons. One, world class speed. Two, very, very strong, both in terms of strength on his skates and strength (core stability) in fending off hits and playing in traffic. Lots to learn, but he's a great kid from a great family and the upside on this kid is tremendous. If there's a draft, I'll be shocked if he's not a solid first rounder in spite of his height. Dynamic speed, good goal-scoring ability, great playmaking ability, fearless, competitive and a character player, IMHO.

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Dan Mason offers his opinion on the new arena debate

For those who missed it:

Weighing in on Edmonton’s Arena Debate
By Dan Mason

I have been asked to write a column for C2E regarding the arena debate in Edmonton. To give you some context, I am an associate professor with the Faculty of Physical Education and Recreation at the University of Alberta, and recently organized a conference in Edmonton on arenas and urban development. My work explores how cities leverage sports franchises and sports infrastructure. I have conducted facility tours, and/or variously interviewed mayors, urban planners, tourism and marketing leaders, community development officers, team owners, and facility operators in Baltimore, Cleveland, Columbus, Manchester, Melbourne, and Washington DC.....

Continue here

Friday, February 29, 2008

Red Line on Riley Nash - June 20, 2007



Not exactly thrilled when selected by the Oilers. Then he later followed this up with perhaps a forced smile. Nash later acknowledged that "I'm a BC boy who grew up as a Canucks fan, but Edmonton is good too"

Regardless, he's Edmonton property until 27.

Red Line apparently loved him

INTERVIEW

Vancouver, BC: What are your thoughts on some of the "other" BCHL forwards, like Riley Nash and Casey Pierro-Zabotel?

Kyle Woodlief: At Red Line, our staff loves Riley Nash, and I think he could go off the board possibly as high as #15 overall. A really well schooled, all-around player who can play it any way you want. Pierro-Zabotel is big and has a real good touch around the net and fine instincts at the offensive end of the rink. He has some other areas to work on, but with those tools I'd see him going in the 2nd round.


The Oilers weren't the only ones who had him ranked that high.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Nothing but Respect for Mats Sundin



Mats Sundin. 37 years young.

Recently exercising his right - No-Trade-Clause - he's been unfairly "bashed" and "criticized" by Leafs fans and the media (CREDIT: Stoll2Hemsky for the inspiration).

When did it become his job to fix up the Leafs mess? He paid for the NTC build in his contract in the form of a lower salary - why shouldn't he be able to exercise that very right without public scrutiny?

I recall when CUJO left to Detroit to try and win a Cup. Toronto fans argued that he was a mercenary and had no commitment to the team. Now a guy is doing everything he can to stay and the fans are calling him selfish - unbelievable, but expected.

"I don't believe in the concept of rental players"


I'm surprised there aren't more players in the league who think being a rental cheapens winning a cup. To me, this shows what a dedicated, loyal teammate he is. He wants to win the cup the correct way, by grinding it out from September to June with his fellow troops. If not, so be it.

Good for him.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Updated pending UFA's - Summer 2008

Continuation of the blog entry back in January

FORWARDS THAT WILL GARNER THE MOST INTEREST: Daymond Langkow, Kristian Huselius, Jason Williams, Andrew Brunette, Pavol Demitra, Cory Stillman, Brian Rolston, Miroslav Satan, Sean Avery, Brendan Shanahan, Martin Straka, Radim Vrbata, Vaclav Prospal, Markus Naslund, Brendan Morrison, Joe Sakic, Marian Hossa, Mats Sundin, Jaromir Jagr, David Vyborny, Daniel Cleary

DEFENSEMEN THAT WILL GARNER THE MOST ATTENTION:

Aaron Ward, Brian Campbell, Bret Hedican, Mike Commodore, Adam Foote, John-Michael Liles, Mattias Norstrom, Brad Stuart, Rob Blake, Paul Mara, Marek Malik, Michal Rozsival, Jason Smith, Mark Eaton, Dick Tarnstrom, Jan Hedja , Wade Redden

GOALTENDERS THAT WILL GARNER THE MOST ATTENTION:

Jose Theodore, Jean-Sebastien Aubin, Dan Ellis, Wade Dubielewicz, Ty Conklin, Stephen Valiquette, Johan Holmqvist, Olaf Kolzig

EDIT - Removed Boyle (6 years/40M) and Jackman (4 years - 14.4M)

Who do you like?

Friday, February 22, 2008

Trent Hunter signs 5 years - 10M - Why is Torres earning 2.25M?



SUMMER 2007 - RAFFI TORRES
-26 years old
-RFA
-1 year from UFA
-NHL Salary cap: 50.3M
-Signs 3 year contract.
CAP HIT: 2.25M
ANNUAL SALARIES: 1.600 2.400 2.750

SPRING 2008 - TRENT HUNTER
-27 years old
-Pending UFA in summer of 2008
-NHL Salary cap expected to rise to ~54-55M
-Signs 5 year contract
-CAP HIT: 10M
-ANNUAL SALARIES across the board: 2.000M

Comparable players, both strong EV players, same point total range.

Lowe paid Torres more, whom gave up less UFA years (2) than Hunter did (5). At least I could live with 2.25M over 5 years - you have an asset who is being paid relatively less each year with respect to a rising salary cap - making the asset easier to trade. Instead, you lose his rights in just 3 years - exactly the same mistake Lowe made in the Horcoff extension. The worst part of it is Torres earning 2.750M in the final year of the contract. That figure will be the starting point in the next round of negotiations.

Bad, bad, BAD!

So - is it poor negotiation skills on Kevin Lowe's part?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Jaroslav Spacek - The One that got Away


Traded to Edmonton in January of 2006, he finished the year strong with 19 points in 31 regular season games, followed with 14 in 24 playoff games. He was dropping hints he liked the city.

And then it happened.

Spacek signed in Buffalo - 3 years, 10M.

Scott Howson, who negotiated this contract commented on the situation:

"We were willing to meet the price he was asking for, the money was similar on both sides, but he wanted to go to the other team for one reason or the other," said Howson. "It wasn't a case of he didn't like it here, but when you get to unrestricted and you get to choose your team, a lot of things can come into play. I didn't get the reason why he chose and, to be honest, I'm not very interested in it at this point."


It was clear, at least on surface, that Spacek left primarily because he didn't want to face the pressure of being heavily leaned upon, after the Pronger saga opened to the public. This was later implied by Spacek himself in an nhl.com interview ["They had a few guys leaving and..."]

Perhaps the Oilers should have outbid the Sabres to keep him around. He's having a hell of a season [50 GP, 9 goals, 19 assists, 28 points, 23:20 TOI, 2:35 SH TOI, 4:04 PP TOI] at a reasonable salary.

We could use a veteran Spacek these days.

And it sure as hell would make me more comfortable moving Steve Staios.

Jeff Tambellini may very well be on the market



Sent back down to the AHL today, I wonder if the Islanders have seen the last of Jeff Tambellini.

Islanders Newsday.com blog writes this about Tambellini, including quotes from Ted Nolan:

After scoring only one goal in his latest eight-game stint with the Islanders, forward Jeff Tambellini was sent down to Bridgeport today to make room for the return of enforcer Chris Simon against Tampa Bay tonight at the Coliseum. Simon is coming off an NHL-record 30-game suspension for stepping on the ankle of Pittsburgh’s Jarkko Ruutu on Dec. 15.

Although the Islanders are on a five-game winning streak, coach Ted Nolan said he has no qualms about shaking up the lineup. “I’m not one of those superstitious guys that says, ‘Hey, we’ve got to keep the same lineup,’” Nolan said. “We want to make sure we have the best lineup on the ice on a given night.” Explaining his decision-making process, Nolan said, “. There would be a factor of someone not playing as well as we think and putting Chris back into that position to upgrade it.”

Tambellini received 13:46 of ice time in the first game of his eight-game stretch but saw that dwindle to a low of only 6:44 on Monday against San Jose. His demotion means the end of the “Bridgeport Connection” line with Frans Nielsen and Blake Comeau for the time being. That combination helped jump start the Islanders when they were fighting their way out of a seven-game losing streak, but they were reduced to fourth-line minutes after failing to generate much offense.


Jeff Tambellini is 23, turning 24 in April. He's put up strong numbers throughout his career, and has shown the ability to score goals. He first played in the AHL at 21, and posted a 1 PPG. Those numbers have improved to 1.18 PPG, and 1.30 PPG over the last two years. He's shown enough at the AHL level, but has had limited success in the NHL (14 points in 64 games).

He's never established himself as a full-time NHL player, as shown on TSN's player profile page

04-Feb-08: Recalled from Bridgeport (AHL).
16-Jan-08: Assigned to Bridgeport (AHL).
13-Jan-08: Recalled from Bridgeport (AHL).
13-Dec-07: Assigned to Bridgeport (AHL).
02-Dec-07: Recalled from Bridgeport (AHL).
12-Oct-07: Assigned to Bridgeport (AHL).
08-Oct-07: Recalled from Bridgeport (AHL).
03-Oct-07: Assigned to Bridgeport (AHL).
24-Mar-07: Recalled from Bridgeport (AHL).
13-Mar-07: Assigned to Bridgeport (AHL).
10-Mar-07: Recalled from Bridgeport (AHL).
27-Feb-07: Assigned to Bridgeport (AHL).
01-Feb-07: Recalled from Bridgeport (AHL).
12-Oct-06: Assigned to Bridgeport (AHL).
19-Apr-06: Assigned to Bridgeport (AHL).
08-Mar-06: Recalled from Manchester (AHL).
08-Mar-06: Acquired from the Los Angeles Kings.
09-Dec-05: Assigned to Manchester (AHL).
30-Nov-05: Recalled from Manchester (AHL).
21-Sep-05: Assigned to Manchester (AHL).
15-Aug-05: Signed by the Los Angeles Kings to a multiyear contract.


Have the Islanders had enough? Does he have a career in the NHL in a top 6 role? Should the Oilers inquire about his services?

Your opinion is valued.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Paul Holmgren - a terrific GM



Today, the Philadelphia Flyers exchanged a 3rd round pick in 2008 for Jaroslav Modry.

YK Oil has long been a fan of Modry. Today, he had this to say on the deal:

Absolutely the single best trade deadline deal that will be made.

Despite the low point totals Modry was having a fantastic year in LA. Top-notch defender for a bargain basement price.

+0.90 EV +/- ..... +0.04 QCOMP ..... -0.06 QTEAM
Average TOI /game = 18+ minutes

Essentially the guy was playing very well against some of the best competition their team played and doing so while playing with some of the lesser lights LA had to offer. And he was doing for 18+ minutes a night.


I think this deal goes beyond what's shown on the surface. Let me explain:

Like some may remember, Paul Holmgren acquired Alexei Zhitnik on December 16, 2006 in exchange for Freddy Meyer and a conditional third-round draft pick. He speculated that Zhitnik's value would increase at the trade deadline.

He was right.

He then flipped the asset (Zhitnik) at the trade deadline on February 25, 2007, for top defence prospect Braydon Coburn.

Astute management.

Which brings me to today's transaction. I believe it is setting up for "tommorow's" deal in captain Jason Smith. With Philadelphia hard pressed at the cap, and Smith, slowing down, it seems a deal will come to fruition by the deadline.

STORY


Holmgren acknowledged there has been some interest in captain Jason Smith, who is in the final year of his contract and does not appear to be close to an agreement with the Flyers.


Holmgren basically replaced Smith for cheap by acquiring Modry, and will presumably sell him for more (than the acquisition cost of the replacement).

Asset management. Which is, why Paul Holmgren is one of the top GM's in the NHL.

Re-evaluating the Dustin Penner Deal



After 60 games, Dustin Penner is sitting with 35 points in 60 games (0.5833 PPG), a slight improvement over last year's 45 in 82 (0.5487 PPG). Goal totals are down (29 last year - 17 thus far this season), while assists are up (16 vs 18).

Penner began the season out of shape, and only scored 5 points in the first 13 games. That's water under the bridge - however, playing on the top line logging up minutes, it's a fair opinion to argue that he's underperformed the expectations.

It's not so much that that he's going to cost the Oilers 4.25M for five years - nobody was expecting him to be a value contract, as going to RFA route prevents you - but the fact the compensation for him appears to be steep.

The Oilers would be picking 4th overall if the season ended today.

I was initially in a ''wait and see'' mode for the Penner deal - and in the end, it's about results.

A top 5 pick in a talented draft class (comparable to 2003) is something. Gagner/Voracek were 6/7 last year - so effectively we're giving up that (possibly more?) for Penner. An early 2nd round pick (i.e. 34th overall) is also a valuable asset (that can be traded) in a deep draft. Ditto for early 3rd (i.e. to move up in draft position).

And honestly, Anaheim didn't take a step back in the results category - Todd Bertuzzi is still a better hockey player than Dustin Penner. The impact Anaheim felt is negligible to improve our position from the first round pick in the FCP deal.

The whole situation is depressing when you really think about it. This team would be in Stamkos territory with plentiful of cap space, had Lowe not tried for the quick fix in Souray and Penner. I actually wish Nylander would have signed here. That is the bottom line.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Lives of The Hockey Wives


Curtis Stock, of the Edmonton Journal, writes an interesting article on hockey wives.

The last line is gold.

ARTICLE


Some interesting excerpts:

"Their marriages revolve around the husband. It's his work that always comes first," said Ortiz, a professor of sociology at Oregon State University who studied athlete's wives for four years as part of his doctorate dissertation.

"The wives see to it that their husbands are not encumbered. They are the caretakers of the marriage leaving the husband free to take care of his career.


"It's always a weird situation," said Kristin Peca, mother of Emily, 2, and Trevor, 5. "You never know who is going to go. The week before this year's trade deadline we had the Reasoners over for dinner. As soon as you feel you are starting to get close to people, they're gone."


Other things they don't even want to think about.

The threat of adultery with groupies hanging outside of arenas, in hotel lobbies or at bars and night clubs known to be frequented by athletes is a stress all on its own. Some wives said their husbands get propositioned in their presence, even at dinner with the kids a woman can bat her eyes and leave her phone number behind.

"Groupies are something that obviously makes our lives a little more worrisome," said Smyth. "It's always on your mind.

"I guess it's easy for any guy to find things he's not supposed to. But it's a lot easier when it is just handed to you."

For her part, Smith considers groupies "pathetic" creatures.

"I've never understood it," she said. "How can you be so ga-ga over somebody you don't know, somebody you've never even met?"

Both say it all comes down to trust.

"My husband has choices to make," said Smyth. "If he goes that route then he is an idiot. It's trust in a marriage and a strong faith in God. If I didn't have the latter I would probably be in a looney bin."

"A lot closer than a lot of places," said Smith. "Edmonton was a breath of fresh air from the moment we arrived."


The Oiler wives say they have to learn to tune out the negatives. But try teaching that to your kids.

"Are we greedy? Is daddy overpaid?"

Jordan Smith asked his mother that often during last year's lockout. Who gave him that idea? Bart's dad. Lisa's dad ..
.

"Nobody understands my life like another hockey wife," said Smyth. "I'm not complaining. At all. There are a lot of great parts to the lifestyle. And that's what a lot of people get caught up in and think being married to a hockey player is like.

"Everybody says 'Oh, you're so lucky.' And yes, we are lucky. I get to stay at home with the kids. We've been able to do some amazing travelling. Olympics. World championships.

"But it's not always so great to be on an outing with your kids and they haven't seen their father, and I haven't seen my husband, in two weeks and have everyone following every move.

"Don't get me wrong, I totally understand that it happens and why it happens. But your time is never your own.

"It can be hard. You can't help but think of the guys on the road, eating out, staying in great hotels, eating nice meals. And you're home wiping up baby poop and eating Kraft Dinner again."

Kevin Lowe - July 05, 2007 - "We're in the win-now mode ... we really are"



After shooting blanks in the UFA market, a frustrated Kevin Lowe reveals his competitiveness, that eventually lead him to landing Sheldon Souray and Dustin Penner. He also implies the EIG's budget lead to Smyth being traded.

Lowe said on Wednesday that he also went after Paul Kariya, pitching the Nashville winger on playing on a Canadian team for the first time in his career, but he signed for three years and $18 million US in St. Louis. Also on Lowe's list was Atlanta's Slava Kozlov, but the Russian forward is apparently building a big house in Georgia and one of his children is a rising tennis star.


A frustrated Lowe says the Oilers are thinking of hiring a "concierge" to look after player needs in the future, but he can't understand why free agents won't sign here.

"I wasn't trying to spend the money for a bunch of over-the-hill guys, guys looking to grab one more paycheque," said Lowe, who had a game plan. "It wasn't like we didn't want to spend the money. It's the first time we've ever been in the high-end market. We're in the win-now mode ... we really are, but it didn't work (free agency)."


Whoa whoa whoa, Kevin. You just described Michael Nylander!

And On Nov 19, 2007, Kevin admits the team was not trying to win hockey games for the present, but rather for the future. What a difference 4 months make!

KEVIN LOWE LIVE INTERVIEW


Lowe did want Ryan Smyth after trading him to Long Island Feb. 27 because they couldn't agree on a five-year deal. He says he made a call to agent Don Meehan early in the free-agent proceedings Sunday, but Smyth opted for Colorado.

"Now we've got a different budget and a different salary cap (up from $44 million last year to $50.3 million this season)," said Lowe, admitting he hadn't read the tea leaves well enough to know how high it would jump. If he'd known in February what he knows now, he said Smyth probably wouldn't have gotten away.


Lowe has not said if he would go after a Group 2 free agent, but he's probably not going to leave any stone unturned.

"As the general manager of a team, I have to utilize all the possible tools I have," said Lowe.