YK Oil is back

In case you missed it, YK Oil returned in the past weeks after a 6 month hiatus.

LINK TO WELL CONSTRUCTED THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS

Stadium (Arena) Promises Never Pay

Rick Eckstein, professor of sociology, tackles on the sociological aspect of stadium lobbying.

Why, then, given the overwhelming academic research challenging stadium-centered economic development do political leaders (if not average citizens) still support such projects? In a just-released article in the Journal of Sport and Social Issues, my colleagues and I studied media coverage of 23 publicly financed stadium initiatives in 16 different cities, including Philadelphia. We found that the mainstream media in most of these cities is noticeably biased toward supporting publicly financed stadiums, which has a significant impact on the initiatives' success.

This bias usually takes the form of uncritically parroting stadium proponents' economic and social promises, quoting stadium supporters far more frequently than stadium opponents, overlooking the numerous objective academic studies on the topic, and failing to independently examine the multitude of failed stadium-centered promises throughout the country, especially those in oft-cited "success cities" such as Denver and Cleveland.

To read more on this article, click here

He has a point.

*Credit - Sports Economist (link on the sidebar) for providing the story

NHL's Most Valuable Player (Hart Trophy)

The guy is good.

Honestly.

Nikolas Lidstrom, soon to be 38, is the league's best defenseman. For the first time in his career, he will be considered for the MVP award.

In 52 games this season, he's amassed 6 goals, 43 assists (3rd most in the league), 49 points and +43 rating. Just 28 PIM and logging up 27:13 TOI/game. Did I mention +43?

+43!

I would not only argue he's helping his team win hockey games (that is an understatement), but also a big reason why Chris Osgood is boasting a career high .925 SV% (.907 Career avg).

Of course he'll be in tough competition. Daniel Alfredsson is having a career year at 35. Edmonton boy, Jarome Iginla is having an outstanding season and the Flames haven't suffered from Mikka Kiprusoff's poor goaltending in the standings. Joe Thornton is carrying the San Jose Sharks. Ovechkin is making a strong case in Washington.

I don't like the fact that LeCavalier and Kovalchuk are getting consideration. "Buzz Penguin" from HF crunched the numbers and discovered this:

LeCavalier (+3) has a 1.75 PPG against teams in the SE division, and a 1.03 PPG against non-division opponents

Kovalchuk (-15) has a 1.94 PPG against teams in the SE division, and a 0.90 PPG against non-division opponents

Ovechkin (+10) has a 1.22 PPG against teams in the SE division, and a 1.33 PPG against non-division opponents

All good players, but it's clear that LeCavalier and Kovalchuk are reaping the benefits of playing against poor defenses and poor goaltenders. Of course some of these SE division teams should be auctioning off guys like Prospal, Whitney, Stillman, etc. in the case they are overvalued on the trade market, in order to address team needs.

Back to Lidstrom - he's my choice. The guy quietly gets results year after year without much press.

The Hart Memorial Trophy is an annual award given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Nikolas Lidstrom is valuable to his team in the sense that he helps the Detroit Red Wings win hockey games.

And they win.

Alot.

Steve Yzerman Duped

A story of Steve Yzerman tricked over a 5 year period

ESPN EXCLUSIVE - * LINK FIXED *

Oilers Media Spin

Perfect example here.

Hilarious. Great site. I recommend reading some other entries on that site.

Trivia Time

Guess who this *active* player is?

16 Years Old: 57GP 39G 59A 98PTS - 1.72PPG
17 Years Old: 60GP 27G 52A 79PTS - 1.32PPG
18 Years Old: 39GP 24G 23A 47PTS - 1.21PPG

Unreal. Just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game Review

On the ice, Steve Stamkos stood out. Big guy. The team that wins the lottery will have a solid player to build around.

Staal was slow-footed.

and...

That's enough discussion of the game.

The real highlight of the night was talking to various NHL personnels. I got my game ticket signed by Steve Yzerman and shook his hand. I talked to Don Meehan - very friendly guy who approached the fans. I asked him about what happened with the Ryan Smyth negotiations. Obviously he wasn't going to spill it out, but he told me, "Ohh, it's a very long story." Daryl Sutter was there in his leather jacket, talking to Meehan during the 2nd intermission. I caught Sutter at one point shaking his head. They were also sitting together during the game. Phaneuf & Huselius negotiations? One of my friends met Glen Sather - got a pic taken with him. We then caught Scott Howson - nice, friendly guy. I asked him whether they will extend Jan Hedja. He hesitated, then responded, ''Ummm maybe...most likely." I asked him if he'd send him back to the Oilers. "You guys have enough defenceman!" was his response. My buddy then discussed Gare Joyce's recent hockey book, "Future Greats" with Scott Howson. He's a fan of that the book too.

Lots of scouts there too - they weren't revealing much or very talkative.

Junior hockey isn't popular yet in this town - it's be great if the Oil Kings can get some high-end players in the coming years that can drum up the interest.

Kevin Lowe and the Playoffs

Oh no no! Not this year silly.

Rather, I'm bringing forth a question - does Kevin Lowe put too much weight on playoff performance when making transactions?

Examples:
1) Dwayne Roloson - Everyone knew that Dwayne Roloson was playing way over his head in the playoffs. That type of SV% was never sustainable in the long run, and the cracks started to show in the Anaheim series.

So...under what basis was he extended 3 years for?

The money was fine - the contract length wasn't.

Manny Legace, however, put up strong numbers throughout the regular season. MC79 was on board, at that time, suggesting the Oilers pick up Legace instead of Roloson. Legace signed for a mere 1.4M/1 year deal. Roloson, meanwhile, provided the Oilers with less than league average goaltending in year 1 of the contract, and has reverted to a backup role in year 2. Did anyone expect a 37 year old goaltender who was never a full-time starter in his career, to revitalize his career a la Tommy Salo, 1999?

2) Marty Reasoner, an integral part in the Doug Weight deal. Marty had a solid playoffs in 2000-2001, scoring many key GWG in the 10 game span.

3) Joffrey Lupul in the Pronger deal instead of one of Penner/Perry/Getzlaf. Lupul's playoff bottom line:

16 GP, 9G, 2A, 11 PTS, +9.

The regular season? Old news. The playoffs are what earn you 6 Stanley Cup Rings.

An added bonus, Lupul is a GAB (Good Alberta Boy) Copyright: Dennis

4) Fernando Pisani's contract extension. According to Scott Howson, the Oilers didn't give Pisani the 1.1M he was asking for in January 2006 and wanted to wait it out. Then came the playoffs. Strong Performance. Poof! "Here you go, an additional 1.4M, no questions asked."

5) Craig MacTavish's 4 year contract extension after the playoffs. Lowe/Oilers had declined to exercise the team option of MacTavish's contract after the regular season.

Just a theory.

I like Kevin Lowe - he's an epitome of an Oiler. He's a genuine, down-to-earth person [I've met him]. Of all the GM's in the league, he's first choice would be that he finishes his career in Edmonton with one Stanley Cup ring as a GM. However, like Scotiabank commercial suggests, perhaps it's time for Kevin Lowe to get a "second onion."

What does Nilsson have to do to earn more ice time?

ROBERT NILSSON

2.67 ESP/60 [4th highest goal differential]

0.55 PPG

3.35 PPP/60 [on 2nd unit]

Tied with Gilbert, 5th on the team in Plus/Minus rating (+2). Breakdown: Home (-1). Road (+3)

Yet, he sits at 18th on the Oilers at 13:05 TOI/game.

What explains this? What am I missing?

Is his hair too funky?

Or is his hockey style just not suited for a "Mac-T type" of hockey club?

De Guzman weighing allegiances to Canada, Netherlands

As an avid Mens National Soccer Team fan, I've been on top of the De Guzman saga.

Here's an update:

The father of Jonathan de Guzman, one of Canada's most talented soccer players, says the chaos in the Canadian Soccer Association continues to discourage his son from playing for Canada's national team.

"If the CSA wasn't in such a horrible state, he would've played for Canada by now. I don't know that for a fact, but it's just a strong feeling I have," Bobby de Guzman told Tom Harrington of CBC News

EIG Continue to use Edmontonians As a Pawn

A recent questionnaire illustrates the EIG reverting back to their old subtle tricks yet again

See below:

13. At this point in time, are you intending to renew all or most of your Season Seats for the 2008-09 season?
[RESPONSE REQUIRED]
- Select One -(5) Very Likely(4)(3)(2)(1) Not at all/Likely/Don't know/Not stated

14. In the case where the NHL salary cap increases from one season to the next, which of the following ticket strategies do you favour?

Increase ticket prices to allow the Oilers to maintain their practice of spending near or at the top of the cap OR
Maintain ticket prices and no longer spend near the cap
Don't know/No opinion

15. What is your expectation on ticket pricing for the 2008-09 season?
0% increase
1-2% increase
3-5% increase
6-7% increase
Don't know/No opinion

*Tip of the cap to Ibis284 from HF.

It's quite clear they intend to raise ticket prices. The intended purpose of this survey isn't to genuinely consider what the season ticket holders base wants. Rather, it's a case of another attempt by the EIG to create an either/or scenario in the minds of the consumer, influence them towards the desired response, and subsequently use survey results as defensive tool when they raise ticket prices this summer.

The fact that they're asking this question, however, concerns me. Perhaps the 66% shareholder vote isn't secure just yet.

Too bad.

Billy Beane on Statistical Analysis

A recent article from ESPN. A great guy, that Billy Beane.

For the uninitiated, the term "Moneyball" refers to Michael Lewis' book by the same name. The book attempted to explain why the A's, on a shoestring budget, managed to successfully compete against baseball teams with far bigger payrolls. The answer, in part, lays in the organization's use of statistical analysis as a means of finding undervalued players, be they prospects or established veterans.

"If you get the data, what you're trying to ultimately achieve is: What is the intrinsic value of this player's performance?" Beane said. "What is he paid, and what should he be paid?"

"I think the misconception about any statistical analysis is that you're not going to be 100 percent correct," Beane said. "What you're trying to do is create an arbitrage ... if you're right 25 percent versus 20 percent you've created a 5 percent arbitrage opportunity. That's really all you're trying to do

"Let's face it, every business has metrics that can be used," Beane said. "It's just identifying the metrics that have the greatest weight and the greatest correlation to ultimately winning. It's a work in progress, and I say this with a tremendous amount of respect [for soccer]."

"You don't create the template and then that's it," Beane added. "It's constantly evolving and changing as you try to ferret out things that can be applied. Statistical analysis is still very much fluid."

Patrick Sharp Cashes In

Patrick Sharp, 26, signed a 4 year contract today at 15.6M [3.9M/season] avoiding restricted free agency.

He's posted a strong year with 22 goals and 36 points in 44 games. Chicago is banking on the hope that Sharp's offensive game continues at the current year's pace for the next 4 years.

Meanwhile, the numbers show that a guy is shooting at a 19.6% rate, much higher than his career average of 13.2%.

From Chicago's perspective, I don't like it. I'll be honest in saying that I don't watch too many games not involving the Oilers, aside from the playoffs. However, looking at the career numbers, I don't believe the ones posted this year are sustainable in the long run. Sharp also doesn't have a history of putting up big numbers going back to his junior days. Too much for a guy that likely would have been in the middle of the line for possible RFA offersheets.

Perhaps Kevin Lowe did singlehandedly change the market. Or perhaps GMs are irrationally worrying about the "RFA game." Or just perhaps, my salary expectations lag behind inflation and the rising cap.

We'll find out more in the summer.

Stay tuned.

A Little Known Fact

JIM MATHESON

Q: Has there been talk of the Oilers getting their own plane if Daryl Katz becomes majority owner? If so, does anybody know if an airplane's environmental controls can be tweaked to simulate a hyperbaric chamber?

(Davey Armey)

A: The Oilers already have a spiffy private plane with first-class, leather seats and nice food. They don't use a hyperbaric chamber at ice level, so I don't see them giving it a go at 30,000 feet.

Pure Dumb Luck

Ryan Rishaug just recently reported that the Oilers actually were close to signing CUJO at the beginning of the season. He also implied that it went as far as negotiating terms and dollars.

Seeing how Garon has worked out, it's safe to say Lowe dodged a bullet.

Luckily, it's not the only occasion where he has done so:

2) Vanek RFA offersheet that would have ended up costing the Oilers 4 First round picks had Buffalo Matched.

The bottom line: 25 points in 43 games earning a 10M salary this season. Still a way to go before he peaks.

3) A 35 year old Michael Nylander who was close to signing a 4 year deal, worth at least 5.5M in the first 3 years.

The bottom line: A team worst -19 in 40 games on a relatively strong 5 on 5 Washington Capitals [EVGF 80, EVGA 88]. The next closest is Semin at -11.

4) Many reports indicate that Wade Redden refused to waive his NTC to play with the Oilers.

The bottom line: If he had, as reports suggest, Shawn Horcoff was going the other way.

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you never made

-- Kevin Lowe

Indeed.

Hannu Toivenen Career Falling; Marek Schwarz Called Up

Hannu Toivonen is an interesting goaltender. Drafted in the first round (29th overall) in 2002, he started his professional career with a splash.

He posted a .921 and .932 SV% in the AHL at 20 and 21, and a .914 SV% in 20 games with the Boston Bruins at 22.

Then he fell - for whatever reason. In 2 further stints in the NHL, he posted a GAA of 4.23 and 3.89, and corresponding .875 and .882 SV%. Today he was sent down to the AHL.

Many, including myself wanted Lowe to acquire him this past summer. We were confident that there was no chance his numbers early on in his career were a fluke. Needless to say, he's proving us otherwise.

So What happened to Toivonen? I generate 3 possibilities:

1) He was indeed playing over his head at 20 and 21
2) Boston rushed him into the NHL when he wasn't mentally ready; confidence and numbers fell
3) In the seasons he was playing well, the sample size was too small to make confident assertions

I'm leaning towards (2) and (3). Confidence is a fragile thing, and goalies tend not to be ready until 23-24. With regards to sample size, we're measuring him on seasons with 36, 54, 20, 18, 27, and 14. Perhaps not large enough to make an analysis.

On a related note, a goaltender that Oiler fans will forever compare Devan Dubnyk to, Marek Schwarz, has been called up to take Toivonen's spot. His .900 SV% is slightly lower than Dubnyk's .903. I expect he'll get murdered playing against men.

Quite simply put, he's just not ready.

MVP: The Secret Lives of Hockey Wivies

Excellent opening show. New CBC drama. Hockey related.

Watch the show online here if you missed it.

Cheers

Oilers TV Ratings down 30% from last year

I guess that's what a bad hockey team will do for you.

William Houston with the STORY

Despite leading the Northwest Division, Canucks regional audiences are down 20 per cent. Rogers Sportsnet is averaging 242,000 viewers a game compared with 303,000 at this point last season.

Networks pay closer attention to long-term trends than year-to-year measurements, but the Canucks numbers also have declined 29 per cent from the prelockout season of 2003-04.

Flames: Averaging 117,000 viewers, down 3 per cent from last year at this point, up 3 per cent from 2003-04.

Oilers: Averaging 116,000, down 30 per cent from last year, up 22 per cent from 2003-04.

Leafs: Averaging 411,000, down 3 per cent from last year at this time, up 7 per cent from 2003-04.

Ottawa Senators: Averaging 102,000, up 17 per cent from last year, up 38 per cent from 2003-04.

Montreal Canadiens: Averaging 643,000 on Reseau des Sports, down 9 per cent from last season, but up 65 per cent from 2003-04.

Jason Bonsignore traded [Back in North America]

RENTON, NJ (January 9, 2008) - The Trenton Devils [ECHL] today announced that they have acquired forward Jason Bonsignore from the Fresno Falcons in exchange for future considerations.

CONTINUE

CAREER STATS

For the love of the game or nothing else to turn to?

Shawn Horcoff an All-Star

Hey now you're an All Star get your game on, go play
Hey now you're a Rock Star get the show on get paid
And all that glitters is gold
Only shooting stars break the mold
-- Smash Mouth

JOURNAL

SUN

"I don't think he gets the credit he deserves," said Fernando Pisani. "He's on the power play, penalty kill, he's out there 20-plus minutes a night. He's been doing it all for us. It's great to see him get some recognition."

"It speaks to the dimension of his game because there's not a situation I don't rely on him in during the course of a game," said Craig MacTavish. "He's a great role model. Yesterday in practice I went to a player and said 'Watch Horcoff, practice, just watch him.' From a coaching perspective it's so beneficial to have your best players be your best examples."