Thursday, July 26, 2007

Dustin Penner: Pros, Warning Bells, and Cons

As sports fans, only after the initial rush of excitement of signing a free agent or making a trade, do we have the ability to analyze the deal in a rational and objective manner.

Which brings upon, Dustin Penner.

The Edmonton Oilers are back at it again, tendering a five year, $21.5 million offer sheet to Anaheim Ducks Group II restricted free agent Dustin Penner.


- A soon-to-be 25 year old. Room to improve his game
- 6"4, 240 pounds adds elements of toughness in the lineup
- Replaces Ryan Smyth in the slot on the PP
- A "Win" now mode in the dressing room is likely to give more incentive to the guys in the dressing room to play to their fullest
- A possible sign that the Oilers (spending up to the cap) will be sold to Katz this off-season
- Possibly by years 2 or 3, he outperforms his contract

1st, 2nd, 3rd, in a deep draft are valuable assets
Didn't put up solid numbers as a 21 year old in the NCAA, or as a 22 year old in the AHL. Not a proven commodity
- Like Joffrey Lupul, posted poor relative results 5 on 5 (-2) with sheltered minutes on a relatively strong ES team with strong ES goaltending
- Quite possibly, following the career path of Raffi Torres (3 years, 2.25M/year). Torres numbers at 24 years of age:

82 27 14 41

Are we paying 4.3M to a possible Torres, and giving up 3 draft picks in doing so?

- Slow foot-speed. Will likely be unable to keep up for Horcoff and Hemsky
- Possibility the deal is looking terrible if Penner underperforms his contract
- Unlike Lupul, his 4.3M contract, long-term, will be much harder to move via trade.

I'm not convinced this was the right move, as per my initial reaction.

Time will tell.

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