Thursday, November 15, 2007

Loweapologists Arguments

Term is coined by Dennis.

Here are the most often arguments given by Loweapologists, trying to convince the majority that Kevin Lowe is the man with a plan.

Argument 1: "Smyth isn't worth 5 YEARS! Guys break down at 34 and 35! Just look at Amonte and Naslund!!!"
Fact 1: Lowe obviously though otherwise, considering he offered Smyth a 5 year, 27M deal. A deal that would keep Ryan around until 36.


Argument 2: "Smyth is injury prone. Kevin Lowe made the right choice to pass on Smyth."
Fact 2: Compare with Souray's GP totals, and tell me who exactly is injury prone

And again, Kevin Lowe didn't pass on Smyth by offering him a 5 year contract. Therefore, the injury prone line is bogus, even if it was true that Smyth fit in that category.

Argument 3: "Kevin Lowe is thinking about the Oilers in long run. Thus, the Dustin Penner contract fits in with Kevin's long term vision as Penner will be earning his money in years 3, 4, and 5 of the contract."
Fact 3: If that were the case, why would Kevin Lowe offer a 4 year contract to a 35 year old Michael Nylander, whom is likely to decline in years 3 and 4 of the contract

Argument 4: "Ryan Smyth is Greedy. He is the only reason why Kevin Lowe could not sign him. Ryan should have taken a hometown discount. The truth is, Ryan Smyth didn't want to stay in Edmonton, while Sheldon Souray did."
Fact 4: Sheldon Souray took the best offer (in monetary figures, signing bonus, and length of contract). That is the only reason he signed here. In fact, according to this piece in the Montreal Gazette, the Oilers came out of nowhere to sign him:


A day later, the Canadiens offered Souray a four-year deal commonly reported to be worth $22 million, numbers he says “are close.”

By then, he had similar or better offers elsewhere – eventually a half-dozen or so serious offers, Souray says, before Edmonton came out of nowhere, “not even kicking the tires” until July 11 – and felt he had slipped well down the Canadiens’ list of priorities.

It is also to important to note, none of the guys in Moreau, Pisani, Staios, Horcoff, Lupul, and Roloson, at the times during their negotiations, took a hometown discount. But Ryan Smyth should have!


Argument 5: "Kevin Lowe is put at a huge disadvantage! Nobody wants to play in Edmonton!!!"
Fact 5: Players do want to play in Edmonton, as proven by the numerous guys that have signed long term contracts here. Typically, they go where the money is. While it may be a little more difficult for Lowe to compete in the UFA market when players have the choice, that doesn't mean every guy out there is a Pronger.

Detroit isn't exactly a tropical paradise either.

When given a choice, who would want to go to a place where the team has sold off every damn good player over the years, and won one game in regluation (one that cost us Patrick Kane) in the final 20 games? Last time I checked, celler dwellers teams like LA and Chicago also have had trouble attracting the marquee free agents.

Not to the endless drama within the organization, comparable to an episode of "Days of Our lives"


Argument 6: "Dustin Penner was a GREAT MOVE BY LOWE!!! Draft picks and prospects are massively overrated!"
Fact 6: If they are overrated, then why were you defending the return on:

The Pronger deal (An unproven Smid with little offensive game, a Lupul who had raw tools but poor ES numbers, a 1st, a 2nd, and another conditional 1st)

The Smyth deal (Nilsson, a 22 year old that had yet to crack the NHL on a full-time basis, O'Marra who had just come off a major injury and barely cracked the PPG as a 19 year old in the OHL, and is now doing only OK in the ECHL. Topped with another 1st round draft pick).


It's downright funny sometimes.

Before the ''You're a Basher Crew'' gets on me, hopefully the Oilers win against Minnesota tonight.


Anonymous said...

Strawman is fun.

Wait, does that make me an apologist?

If so, I offer a "The Oilers will go nowhere without Mike Johnson" to even things out.

mike w said...


Just kidding.

Nice post.

buddy said...

I, Lowe-bot

dstaples said...

Some good points here, but one inconsistency.

OK, bad idea to sign Souray, as odds are against him being top player for length of his deal.

Nylander, same thing goes.

So that is two wrongs.

But you seem to have wanted Lowe to have signed Ryan Smyth, another old hockey player, who is likely past his best before date.

That would have been three wrongs, right,
Cheers, David Staples,
The Cult of Hockey

PunjabiOil said...

But you seem to have wanted Lowe to have signed Ryan Smyth, another old hockey player, who is likely past his best before date.


Welcome to the Oilogosphere.

I'm not sure Smyth is another ''old hockey player'' or someone who is ''likely past his best before date''

The guy is only 31. He's scored 72 goals in 2 years since the lockout. He significantly helps out the PP.

I can understand the stance of the Oilers not wanting to spend 5.5M on someone they don't perceive as elite, and then waiting until the right guy comes along. They key is waiting until the right guy comes along - neither Nylander, Souray, or Penner fit the description.

What I can't understand is why the Oilers then proceeded to throw more equal or similar money to lesser players (Souray, Nylander, Penner).

It all comes down to - did Kevin Lowe have a long term plan? It doesn't seem like it.

Pat H said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Pat H said...

Good post. That's a handy little reference guide: "how to f up under the guise of a 'plan'"

Sean said...

My biggest problem with Lowe is not that he didn't have a plan - I think he did - he just didn't know what to do when his plan went to shit. That and ignoring glaring weaknesses in your own team.