Sunday, September 30, 2007
Media takes a shot at the Oilogosphere
"If Edmonton Oilers hockey is a fishbowl, it's never had more fighting fish in it, with far more sports coverage than ever on radio, TV and in print, not to mention the blogosphere, where every wannabe Oilers general manager can have his or her say."
How many of these wannabe Oilers GM's could do a better job handling the Smyth and Pronger situations?
Vito Corleone steps down; Younger, fresher blood in Michael takes over

Ryan Smyth?
Gone.
Jason Smith?
Gone.
Petr Sykora?
Gone.
3 Veteran hockey players were cut loose or traded this past summer. Perhaps the dollars and cents didn't match. Or perhaps, the organization was set on going in a different direction and the above names didn't align properly.
Kevin Lowe long has been discussing the young blood - public comments of ''Not mortgaging the future'' and the alike.
Now the time has come.
Call it the youth movement - With names like Gagner (18), Cogliano (20), Nilsson (22), Stortini (22), Pouliot (22), Thorosen (24), and Brodziak (24) upfront, all expected to crack the opening roster, there is no shortage of reliance on the young members of the Edmonton Oilers.
Penner (25), Hemsky (25), Stoll (25), and Torres (26) have yet to peak either.
The veterans up front is a short list: Horcoff (29), Reasoner (30), Moreau (32), and Sanderson (35)
Defence is sailing in the same boat.
Smid (21), Greene (24), Pitkanen (24), Gilbert (24), Grebeshkov (24), and Roy (24) round up the old-boys-network-junior.
Souray (31), Tarnstrom (32), and Staios (34) are the veterans on the blue line that will be heavily counted on.
Goaltending is an exception to the rule
Garon (29), and Roloson (38) are expected to share the load.
CAN THIS TEAM REALISTICALLY MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR?
*I'd like to say so. I'd like to believe Gagner and Cogliano will carry their point production to the games that count. Mikhnov, Lupul's and Schremp's pre-season performances last year though, have kept me honest. A wait-and-see approach if you may.
*Young defenceman will make mistakes. Matt Greene's development has stagnated. MacT doesn't think Grebeshkov has a lot to offer defensively, but they'll work on it. Pitkanen came off a year with hot and cold games. Gilbert needs another 100AB in the NHL before he can find his comfort zone. Smid is still a boy amoung men.
*The veteran's don't provide that much of stability either. Souray is 31, and Huddy will STILL have to work to improve his game. Tarnstrom is a bottom pairing, PP Specialist, who wasn't in the NHL last year. Staios is the only calming presence surrounded by chaos.
* Souray was strictly a PR transaction, inconsistent with the organization's youth movement philosophy. Souray, who reported in AUG 21's Edmonton Journal, "The Oilers came out of nowhere, and I told my agent to get it quickly done." However, that's history, and I'm looking forward to see him put the POW in the POWERPLAY.
*The defence can certainly use a veteran to calm things down. YK Oil is a big fan of Tanabe. I was a fan of Hedja, or even Tjarnqvist at lesser money. Hey, Danny Markov is still looking for a dance partner. What say you, Kevin?
*Upfront, Mike Johnson replaces Pisani. Pisani ridiculously had only a -1 on a poor ES 2006-2007 Oilers team. Mike Johnson, meanwhile was +6 (31 pts) on a similar poor ES team. He's a guy who went 16G, 38A, 54 points in 2005-2006 and Montreal only paid the price of a 4th rounder (which is effectively ~nothing) to acquire him. Latest rumblings suggest that he was at the Blues camp on a try-out basis. Poor guy, just can't get a break. If Billy Beane shared his philosophy to the ''Naked-eye observation NHL GMs," he'd be courted by 30 NHL teams. Perhaps things will change in the future. Perhaps not.
I don't believe we're a playoff team, based on the roster thus far. At the same time, we're going on an embarking journey to watch the youth grow and mature. For the first time in organization's history, I can confidently say and truly mean it: "Just watch. Just watch us next year."
Sunday, September 23, 2007
He shoots....He SCORES!

STORY
Hilary Duff's expectations were low when her hockey player boyfriend, Mike Comrie, called recently to say he'd picked out an early 20th birthday present for her and that "I hope you like them."
"Okay, it's shoes or something," Duff recalled thinking as she went to her sister's house, where Comrie had said he left the present in the garage. "I opened the garage, and I was just like shocked, just standing there."
Before her, with a big red bow on top, was a Mercedes-Benz G-class SUV (retail price: more than $100,000).
Thursday, September 20, 2007
The Wise Man Speaks

"It's a situation where, yeah, we're going to move the puck better, but can we defend as well?"
"But I really caution guys like him in particular. Your days of getting the puck and completely outskating everybody are gone. It does happen, at times. It happened (Tuesday night) where he beat a Toronto defenceman wide. But you've got to play the game with your head here.
"It's the combination of the speed and the hockey sense and the head that will really determine how much success he has at this level."
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Sabres still not happy with the Oilers
Sabres managing partner Larry Quinn was asked if the Sabres will elicit advice from the Oilers, who staged the NHL's first regular-season outdoor game.
"We're not real happy with Edmonton right now," Quinn said, referring to the Oilers' attempt to hijack Sabres winger Thomas Vanek through restricted free agency with a seven-year, $50 million contract offer. "We won't be talking to Edmonton."
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
EIG pumps in 3.5M in dressing room upgrades
It's only fair
STORY
...but it is another event supporting the suspicions that the EIG were making money hands over fist. Would the EIG be engaging in these renovations if they were ''close to breaking even'' territory?
Not likely.
On an semi-unrelated note...
Another tidbit in the article worth mentioning (see bold).
Edmonton's reputation as a place to play is stellar among players who've actually played here, but not so much among those who haven't. This is another step in trying to change the misconception.
"It's impressive to see the way guys are treated here," said Marty Reasoner. "It's an extension of the organization. It's a pretty big message saying the team is committed to the guys and treats them first class."
Besides, said Moreau, the Nobody Wants to Play in Edmonton angle is dead.
"There are too many good examples (of players who do)," he said. "Sheldon (Souray) came here. I signed an extension, Stevie (Staios) signed an extension. Hemmer (Ales Hemsky) signed a long term deal. Horcoff signed a long term deal. Raffi (Torres) signed a long term deal. Jarret Stoll probably will. Dwayne Roloson could have gone somewhere else. Dick Tarnstrom is back.
"All those guys could have gone somewhere else."Saturday, September 15, 2007
Buffalo Suspends Teppo Numminen - Are the Oilers next?
Teppo Numminen wasn’t prepared for what his doctors told him this week at his annual, routine heart checkup. The Buffalo Sabres defensemen, already having endured two cardiac procedures, needs to have another right away.
He claimed he could play again by late October, but his career could be in the balance.
To make matters worse, Numminen learned Thursday night the Sabres had suspended him for failing to report to camp in good physical condition, a move the team declined to announce publicly.
“The NHLPA was notified today that the Buffalo Sabres have elected to suspend Teppo Numminen without pay,” NHL Players Association spokesman Jonathan Weatherdon told The Buffalo News. “We are currently reviewing this matter.”
Numminen this summer signed a one-year contract worth $2.6 million. Sabres General Manager Darcy Regier said the guaranteed contract was not insured, meaning the club would be on the hook for the whole amount had it not suspended him_____
Is it right? Is it just a business? Should non-hockey related medical issues be responsibility of the club? Or should Buffalo handled it with more class? Where do the Oilers stand with regards to Pisani?
Your opinion is encouraged
Friday, September 14, 2007
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Ryan O'Marra


Born in Toyko, Japan - raised in Canada - 20 year old, 6.02, 200 lbs, Ryan O'Marra is hoping to crack the Edmonton Oilers 2007 lineup.
A character center perceived to have strong hockey intelligence and two-way play. In other words, a guy that can help your hockey club win games.
But he is a center.
And the Edmonton Oilers have plenty of them.
So where does O'Marra fit in with a group that includes Horcoff, Stoll, Pouliot, Reasoner, Gagner, Cogliano, Schremp, Nash, Brodziak, Almtrop?
Or does he? Should he be moved to wing, based on GUY FLAMING's synopsis :
O'Marra is a natural center but has shown the ability and the comfort to play on the right wing as well
The ease of transition is critical on a team that is deep at center. But hold that thought for a second...
George Bachul writes:
He was also recognized in the annual OHL Coaches poll as the best faceoff man in his conference
Conveniently, Andrew Cogliano isn't as strong on faceoffs, and perhaps his burning speed may be better utilized on the wing.
Craig MacTavish has a difficult task and decision lying ahead of him.
TAKE A BREAK FROM READING - VIDEO INTERVIEW
So what kind of a game does O'Marra bring?
Guy Flaming writes:
He is a very skilled center with a good set of wheels. He handles the puck well and has a very good shot. He can score from many areas of the ice and doesn’t shy away from playing in traffic.
O'Marra is at his best when he is playing with a physical edge to his game. Banging bodies, creating turnovers and playing toughin the corners or in fornt of the net.
The Islanders were also a fan of him.
"I watched (O'Marra) in the World Junior tournament this year and he's just a steady two-way guy who shows up to play every shift," said Ken Morrow, the Islanders' Director of Pro Scouting.
"As you saw, he can score you some goals, he can kill penalties, he can check, and he can hit...he does a little bit of everything," explained Morrow, adding that O'Marra "doesn't look out of place (at the AHL-level)."
"He looks like a ten-year pro the way he handled himself...he's 18-years-old but he plays like a 25 or 26-year-old," said Morrow.
Robert Tychkowski gets a quote out of Ryan at the Oilers development camp
"I'm itching to skate," said O'Marra, who tore up his knee about five weeks after the trade. "Just to see the boys out there in the Oilers jerseys... it's tough to watch."
Complete player
16 year old - 63 GP, 16G, 16A, 32 PTS - 0.51 PPG - 0.25 GPG
16 year old (playoffs) - 9 GP, 5G, 5A, 10 PTS, 1.11PPG, 0.555 GPG
17 year old - 64 GP, 25G, 38A, 63 PTS - 0.98 PPG - 0.39 GPG
17 year old (plaoyffs) - 6GP, 4G, 1A, 5 PTS - 0. 833 PPG, 0.667 GPG
18 year old - 61 GP, 27G, 50A, 77 PTS - 1.26 PPG - 0.44 GPG
18 year old (AHL) - 8 GP, 4G, 1A, 5 PTS, 0.625 PPG - 0.5 GPG
18 year old (AHL Playoffs) - 3 GP, 0G, 1A, 1 PT, 0.33 PPG, 0 GPG
19 year old (injury season on two different OHL teams) - 46 GP, 26G, 25A, 51 PTS, 1.10 PPG, 0.57 GPG
19 year old (playoffs) 3 GP, 2G, 1A, 3 PTS, 1 PPG, 0.67 GPG
PPG (playoffs excluded) chronologically - 0.51, 0.98, 1.26, 1.10
GPG (playoffs excluded) chronologically - 0.25, 0.39, 0.44, 0.67
What can we derive from these numbers?
- He can put the puck in the net
- His numbers improved with age
- He may certainly have 2nd line upside. He claimed on Guy's pipeline show that people are falsely projecting him as a 3rd liner, and he's going to prove them wrong. Character.
- There is some concern regarding injuries (GP). You'd hope the knee injury suffered last year does not impact him in the long run
- Those are some very nice numbers as an 18 year old in the AHL.
Will he make the team this year?
There has been little talk on O'Marra making the team. Rather, MacTavish seems to be counting on one of Gagner, Schremp, or Cogliano to make the 23 man roster on opening day. Perhaps O'Marra needs another year of development to fine-tune his game. Or it may just be that these interviews mean dick in the grand scheme of things.
Be it in 2007 , 2008 or 2009, all indications thus far point out that Ryan O'Marra will help the Edmonton Oilers hockey club win games. Kevin Lowe most certainly fumbled the ball during the Ryan Smyth negotiations, but he most certainly made sure the organization didn't come away empty handed.
"I think we have a good one," pronounced Baseggio.
You did.
Now he is ours.
The Ice Breaks
IdentificationOfficial name 10406 98 Avenue
Emporis Building Number 307090
Location
Address *
City Edmonton
State Alberta
Country Canada
Technical Data
Floors (OG) 25
Building in General
Type of construction high-rise building
Main usages
*
Status proposed
101st / Jasper aveDundee's Office Tower Proposal

Identification
Official name The Edmontonian
Emporis Building Number 307088
Location
Address *
City Edmonton
State Alberta
Country Canada
Technical Data
Height (struct.) 136 m 447 ft
Floors (OG) 44
Building in General
Type of construction high-rise building
Main usages
*
Status proposed
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Craig MacTavish Sheds some light RE: Training Camp

Article 1
Article 2
YELLOWKNIFE -- With five goals and six assists through the first six games of the Canada-Russia Super Series
Considering the article was published today, an update including game 7 totals would be present in any *real* newspaper. But who is quibbling?
NUMBERS
13 points, 7 of them coming on the PP. The next highest is Giroux at 8, followed by Perron (a guy the Oilers liked) at 7. Turris has put up 6.
Sam Gagner is making the Edmonton Oilers scouts look awfully good.
Lets be honest here. When you're picking in the top 6, it's difficult to screw up. The true test will be to measure how Plante and Nash turn out (15th and 21st overall) compared to the picks in surrounding territory.
It was a pretty heavy price in terms of what we had to pay and what we had to endure (to get that high a pick), but it looks like money well spent," said head coach Craig MacTavish, who can't wait to see Gagner at the Oilers main camp next week.
Am I looking too much into it? What money spent?
"Mactavish who can't wait" - a nice rosy, cheerleading, writer's interpretation.
"We need (Andrew) Cogliano, we need Gagner or (Rob) Schremp, one of those three guys for sure to step up and fill a spot. It would be a disappointment if one of them didn't stay."
Center is getting awfully crowded.
Horcoff
Stoll
Pouliot
Reasoner
Who do you move to wing if one of them makes the team?
Robert Nilsson, acquired in the Ryan Smyth trade with the Islanders, is being counted on to make the team.
"We have him pencilled in right now," said MacTavish. "It's up to him what he does with it, but we do have a spot for him. We saw him play last year in the playoffs in Wilkes-Barre. We need some power play help and he has the ability to do that.
"He needs a chance at the NHL level. He has to be deserving of that chance ... We feel like it's his spot to lose, for sure."
Combining all these quotes together, along with Lowe stating he'd like to fill in the loss of Pisani internally, it appears to be a rebuild year. Is MacTavish buying into the youth-movement plan? Was the talk of a "win-now" mode just nonsense? Were Souray and Penner just moves to keep the tickets selling and the Oilers from a bottom 5 finish?What about the PP? Can Nilsson, primarily a passer, play on the 1st line PP? I could see a Hemsky-Nilsson-Penner-Souray-Stoll group. Horcoff-Sanderson-Pouliot-Pitkanen-Tarnstrom as the secondary.
"It's a good beginning to their professional careers," said Lowe. "That they know if they play for the Edmonton Oilers there is a community responsibility.
Chris Pronger obviously missed the memo.
"You always hear it's going to be a competitive camp and all jobs are open, but we're telling the truth this year. There really is great opportunity and we're hopeful the guys are confident enough against NHL players to compete with them.
I found that part amusing
"Plus, Bucky (Springfield Falcons coach Kelly Buchberger) was coaching, so they wanted to impress him, as well.
Nothing like an old-boys network.
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Edmonton Oil Kings - Ticket Prices illogical Greed or Smart Business?

What isn't family-friendly is the ticket prices.
The major questions arises among Edmontonians - are the current ticket prices too much to build up a fan base? Or are they reasonable enough to attract the targeted 5000-6750 needed in order to generate extremely high annual returns? Is the current pricing sustainable over the long run (i.e. Will the novelty wear off after the 1st year)?
You'd think the EIG researched their market well. The success of the Oil Kings founder Club (3 year season tickets) likely aided them in finding the price point. These guys aren't a charity. They didn't donate tickets to the Troops themselves (rather, the season ticket holders were asked), and they aren't interested in subsidizing lower income or single parent families either. This isn't about Edmonton or the community, no matter how many times Patrick LaForge leads us to believe so. The "Family" demographic talk is nonsense. The intent is to find the price point in order to fill the lower bowl with higher income families or commerce related workers that are willing to pay $8.00 for a Molson. If it keeps the ''Family'' demographic away from the games - so be it. Opening the 200's and 300's could definitely help out the "Family" demographic - but it comes at a major cost. The cost being leakage. The upper levels would require lower ticket prices, and this would remove the certainty of the higher ticket prices. This is the same reason Ken King, president of the Calgary Shames, indicated a short while back, an ideal capacity for an NHL rink is in the 16,000's. This is a business gentlemen. These are smart business guys folks, as much as it pains me to admit it. They already know how to fuck a city over and still come out as public heroes with the taxpayers of Edmonton subsidizing the Rexall lease.
Will the strategy work?
For those in the "Family" demographic that vocally raised objections - take your money to a better quality of hockey in the U of A - you were a never the targeted market. For those a little more wealthier, the eyebrows that were raised when the ticket prices were announced, will seamlessly fall back down without further objections. After all, aren't the Oil Kings ticket prices comparable to other entertainment options in Edmonton? With the Oilers tickets becoming more scarce every year, the EIG know they will be able to get away with charging the highest ticket prices in the CHL.
And they will.
EDIT: After blog entry release, the Edmonton Oil Kings introduced more family-friendly pricing. $10 single tickets, $17 ATB tickets, and $88/4 tickets + 4 Sodas/Hot Dogs packs.
Friday, August 17, 2007
TEAM 1260 vs 630 CHED
A noun.
Making sure the highs are not too high, and the lows are not to low.
Can perfectly sum up the TEAM 1260, an Edmonton based 24-hour Sports Radio station. Objectivity is vital to keep opinions honest throughout the community.
Being an ex-630 CHED listener, things have never been the same since Syd Smith got promoted. A fan I was of CHED, albeit reluctantly, being it the only source of sports. There just weren't any options available. In the capitalism economic model however, the consumer is concerned with and has only one question: "What the fuck have you done for me lately?"
A legit question - what exactly has CHED done lately?
We know the Oilers gave up their radio broadcasting rights to CHED. But what was given up by CHED? Cash and an Objective viewpoint. That's right - Objectivity was the deal clincher. Required so in the mission to shape up the opinions of the majority of Northern and Central Alberta Oiler fans, in a way that benefits the organization. CHED deserves credit for the number of NHL/Oilers guests on their open-line sports shows on weekdays(weeknights). The problem, however lies in with the "softballs" thrown by the hosts. I remember a recent conversation between Bryan Hall, a passionate homer that has the right to write his own retirement ticket when he loses that passion, and Kevin Lowe.
______
Hall: "Seems like everything is fine and dandy in Oiler country!"
Lowe: "Well Bryan, we looked at our needs and tried to address them. I'm optimistic things will go our way. We're still not done making moves yet."
Hall: "..but I mean, you have to be pretty confident with this group of guys?"
Lowe: "Well Bryan, the reality is that we missed the playoffs last year. We weren't as an organization at a level we should have been. We're trying to turn that around."
Hall: "Yeah, absolutely! I understand that! But at the same time, Oiler fans have lots to be excited about."
Of course this was followed up with Bryan's customary, "Tony Romas, the best tasting ribs in North America," propaganda.
______
Dan Tencer seems like a good guy - but it becomes painfully obvious that something is up when he doesn't ask Patrick LaForge, the Oilers President, anything about the team finances because he "finds that stuff boring."
Even "rah-rah-rah-Go-Edmonton-Go" Graham Hicks voiced his displeasure on 630 CHED's way of doing.
Enter, TEAM 1260. Keeping opinions honest, asking hardball questions to interview guests, establishing credible sources to break news first, and bringing in solid guests from around the league for interviews. A station that used to have Matts (Dennis) on regularly to voice his opinions. Below are a few examples:
Example 1: Interview list this summer - Ritch Winter, Kevin Lowe (multiple times), Cal Nichols, other NHL agent(s), Patrick Laforge, multiple Oiler players, etc.
Example 2: Hardball question. "~How is the Grebeshkov situation any different?" to Kevin Prendergast, regarding the decision to pass on Cherepanov. Prendergast fumbled on the answer.
Example 3: By establishing Ritch Winters as a credible source, the TEAM 1260 broke talks on Peter Sykora negotiating with the Oilers a month before he was signed.
Example 4: Stauffer the only brave soul in the room to ask Cal Nichols how the EIG will provide the funds for a new arena.
Of course I have no financial stake in either stations. I'm not even a regular listener - an occasional one when word gets around that a specific guest is going to be on the show. The purpose of this entry was not to change one's radio channel preference - that's strictly a personal choice. The underlying question to be brought up for discussion is, do the Oilers shape up the work of their partners in which financials are involved? Namely, 630 CHED and the Edmonton Journal?
Monday, August 13, 2007
Evaluating The Return of Draft Picks At The Trade Deadline

It's been 4 years since the 2003 NHL Trade Deadline. Long enough time period so, that we can assess whether these deadline deals have been worthwhile for the team(s) receiving draft pick(s). Only deals in which the draft picks were a major component will be touched. A summary and commentary will be provided at the end.
Here we go:
_______________
1.
| March 11 | Nas. | Alex Riazantsev, D | Col. | 7th-round pick in 2003 |
Alex Riazantsev never played a game in the NHL (AHL and Russia only). Nothing amounted of the 7th round pick.
2.
| March 11 | Was. | Sergei Berezin, RW | Chi. | 4th-round pick in 2004 |
3.
| March 11 | Cal. | Dean McAmmond, LW | Col. | 5th-round pick in 2003 |
4.
| Doug Gilmour, C | Mon. | TOR 6th-round pick in 2003 |
5.
| March 11 | Bos. | Ian Moran, D | Pit. | 4th-round pick in 2003 |
6.
| March 11 | Tor. | Phil Housley, D | Chi. | 4th-round pick in 2003 9th-round pick in 2003 |
7.
| March 11 | Bos. | Dan McGillis, D | S.J. | 2nd-round pick 2003 |
8.
| March 11 | NYI | Janne Niinimaa, D 2nd-round pick in 2003 4th-round pick in 2003 | Edm. | Brad Isbister, LW Raffi Torres, LW |
The Islanders won the deal in the short run, but it was solid Billy Bean-esque management on Kevin Lowe's part.
9.
| March 11 | Ana. | Steve Thomas, RW | Chi. | 5th-round pick in 2003 |
10.
| March 11 | Det. | Mathieu Schneider, D | L.A. | Sean Avery, C Maxim Kuznetsov, D 1st-round pick in 2003 2nd-round pick in 2004 |
11.
| March 10 | Phi. | Tony Amonte, RW | Pho. | Guillaume Lefebvre, LW 2nd-round pick in 2004 3rd-round pick in 2003 |
12.
| March 9 | Tor. | Glen Wesley, D | Car. | 2nd-round pick in 2004 |
13.
| March 9 | NYI | Randy Robitaille, C | Pit. | 5th-round pick in 2003 |
14.
| March 9 | Phi. | Claude Lapointe, C | NYI | 5th-round pick in 2003 |
15.
| March 8 | Col. | Bryan Marchment, D | S.J. | 3rd-round pick in 2003 5th-round pick in 2003 |
16.
| March 3 | Nas. | Oleg Petrov, RW | Mon. | 4th-round pick in 2003 |
17.
| March 1 | Phi. | Dimitry Yushkevich, D | L.A. | 4th-round pick in 2003 7th-round pick in 2004 |
________________
Commentary
The purpose was not to demonstrate that the draft picks after the 1st round (to a lesser extent, 2nd round) are more or less, useless, with a huge element of luck in obtaining a regular NHLer. No sir. One can easily look it up him or herself and see blanks all the way around, or very short NHL careers
2004
2003
2002
2001
Rather, the underlying questions to be asked are:
1 Do NHL GM's overvalue draft picks?
and
2. If so, why?
and
3. How can that be corrected and what would be the end result?
I'll take a stab at it
__________________
1. Do NHL GM's overvalue draft picks?
YES
-Trades on draft day to move down in the first round in exchange for an extra 3rd round pick (Oilers and Flames). Risking the possibility that your targeted player (i.e. Pouliot, Backlund) will not be available at the moved-down spot.
-Lack of RFA offersheets over the years.
-Draft picks playing a noteworthy role in perceived to be as ''big trades'' (Smyth, Pronger, Niinimaa, Satan, Comrie, Lydman, Tanguay, etc.)
NO
-Most trades involving moving down at the draft are a result of the expectation that your targeted player will still be available at the moved-down spot. Why not obtain an extra free pick?
-RFA offersheets have nothing to do with valuation, but everything to do with collusion.
- Most "big trades" involve 1st rounders, everyday NHLers, and/or quality prospects. The aggregate is important.
2. If so, why? If not, why not?
YES
-Subjective belief of superiority on ability to draft greater than peers.
-Recent year draft picks have worked out well. Extrapolate this success to future years.
-Like baseball pre-21st century, lack of mainstream statistical use which can pinpoint how successful drafting is, round-by-round.
NO
-"I'm going to lose player X on July 1 because he either wants more money than he deserves, or we just don't have any interest in bringing him back. The low draft pick value accurately reflects the fact that he's not going to wear our uniform colours next year"
3. How can that be corrected and what would be the end result?
-As mentioned, statistical use must be implemented, with data gathered over years.
-Leads to GMs making *calculated* decisions when moving players for draft picks.
Ask Questions and Analyze Results
-If say, the probability of landing an NHL player who will play more than 164 (2 seasons) games in the third round is 5%, smart GMs can take advantage over the dull GMs whom overvalue 3rd round picks by implementing it in part of a package deal or moving up in the draft.
-Connect free agency to draft picks
"What is the probability that a 3rd round pick will have a more successful career than Mike Johnson/Martin Gelinas, whom are available for peanuts in the free agent market?" If it's low, should I take advantage by using it as trade bait to move up in the NHL entry draft?
- Address pending free agents
I have Petr Sykora and Jussi Markannen, both set to be UFAs in 4 months. They are worth a 3rd and 4th rounder on the market respectively. Is it worth keeping one or both to evaluate their play over the next 20 games to make next year decisions? Is it worth passing up a 3rd or 4th rounder to buy decision-making time on the make-up of next year(s) club? Is it worth burning bridges by trading the player.
_______________
Statistics in hockey may never prove to be as useful as they are in baseball due to two main factors:
1. Team/player chemistry has a much bigger role in hockey
2. Baseball deals with an individual (batter) against an individual (pitcher). Hockey deals with 12 guys on the ice, fighting, muscling, and positioning themselves to put the rubber across the goal line.
That being said, statistics still can be useful in hockey. Until then, the few number of teams that employ full time statisticians such as the Minnesota Wild, will gain a competitive advantage and exploit their peers.
In other words, the market has a long way to go before it is corrected.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Moneyball

I must admit, I'm not a huge baseball fan anymore. The Blue Jays lured me as a kid. Fun times watching Speedy Blue Jays Baseball on CBC. Around 2000, the full-time baseball fan of me disappeared. Perhaps I was just a bandwagon jumper all along, or perhaps I found better forms of entertainment. Or perhaps, my interest in professional sports other than hockey dwindled. Whatever it was, I ceased to become a full-time fan - or even a part-time fan. I watch a few innings here and there, and follow the storylines, but the days of 3 hours/day summer commitments are gone.
So what the fuck am I doing reading "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis?
Interest in the business/economic/financial side of sports. Whereas I used to get wet dreams 10 year ago optimistically believing CUJO would lead the Oilers to the cup, numbers became my new passion.
It took a while, but I've found respect for the "number guys" on the Oilogosphere who use a problem-solving scientific approach to the hockey game. There is still a long way to go before it becomes widely recognized, but it will in time, become mainstream in the NHL. Currently, only a handful of teams such as the Minnesota Wild employ full time statisticians.
Anyways, back to the National Best-Seller, "Moneyball."
It's an entertaining book. Many of the strategies and logic used by Billy Beane seem sound and innovative. A guy who willingly challenged the traditional baseball methods (subjective approach) of evaluating talent, in an attempt to win ball games.
Which, he did. At least so in the regular season, objectivity didn't fail him.
There are, however, some criticisms I have about the the book and the Moneyball Approach. Agree, or disagree - feel free to provide your comments
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1) In my opinion, evaluating Moneyball based on the performance of just seven draft picks (and only 1 draft year) is a weak methodology. Billy Beane has been the GM for the A's for 8 years (4 years when the book was released) - his overall draft success should rather be evaluated. Moreover, only 3 out of those 7 become regular ball players. Was he THAT successful?
2) The book failed to expand on Beane's statistical use of evaluating free agents
3) Beane's strategy fails to look at the human element of trading away player. Is it sustainable in the long run?
4) The NY Yankees are an extreme outlier. The author conveniently and too simplistically points out the payroll gap between the Bronx Bomers and the Athletics - but what about all those teams in between who incurred only a marginal higher payroll. What about the success of lower payroll teams like Minnesota, whom contended for the division title?
5) What about the fact the Oakland A's played in division of only 4 teams, the smallest in baseball. Surely, odds are better to begin with.
6) How much alone did the trio of Hudson, Zito, and Mulder play in the success of the A's, rather than the on-base %?
7) By the "average wins per dollar spent" standard, I am sure that there are other teams, including losing teams, that could celebrate their frugality. For example, how much did Atlanta spend per win during this period, and are they the mark for success in the NL (despite the fact that another team has been the NL representative in the World Series in each of those years)? How about Minnesota, including its success in reaching the post-season during these years?
8) Beane's draft seemed to flunk some basic precepts of game theory and economics. Spending a first-round pick on someone no other team is going to pick in the first 10 rounds is overpaying, even if only in terms of opportunity cost, even if the player turns out to be a hidden-gem success. A better strategy would be to draft the BPA , meet the contract demands, and if necessary, trade him to the rich-pockets of the MLB.
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Lewis wrote an entertaining book, but he tended to too often paint things in stark black and white, rather than recognize the shades of Grey.
Last question - is there less of an incentive in baseball to win Championships than any other sport?
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
E.I.G - Egocentric Interfering Gentlemen

August 7, 2007.
"This morning, our shareholders voted resoundingly to reject this offer," - Cal Nichols
Wonder what the ''collateral damage'' Nichols is talking about? People realizing the truth on the EIG's finances? Their ability to spend to the cap? Their ability to fund a new arena primarily by themselves?
I still believe the EIG made a good business move for themselves - the Oilers are profitable, and they will still be able to get away with taxpayers significantly funding the new arena under the ''It-benefits-the-whole-city/economy-card" propoganda
What I can't stand is this:
“This is not about dollars. This is about Edmonton. An ownership group is best-suited for Edmonton and the Oilers.”
Later in the Press Conference, Nichols used the survey results on season ticket holders preferring an ownership group as a defensive tool.
Predictable
Instead of admitting the offer is not enough in their opinion, they had to play the ''We're-doing-it-for-YOU'' card. How many times can they insult the intelligence of Edmontonians? Again and again. It's like a carousal. It goes up and down, and around. Circular. With the music. The Flow. All good things - NOT.
Katz has a different view
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Katz Disagrees
Nichols said the offer to buy the Oilers was unsolicited but the Katz group disagrees, claiming he was told the EIG would be willing to listen to offers as long as they were $165 million or more.
"We're going to have to agree to disagree with Cal on a few key points, including the value of the offer and whether it was truly unsolicited as he has said," Katz spokesman Josh Pekarsky told TSN. "But fundamentally, the EIG has said the team is not for sale so that's the end of the story."
_________I believe him on the unsolicited bit. Ritch Winters also confirmed it in the past week on Bob Stauffer's show on TEAM 1260. I believe the EIG was seeking the 200M+ that the likes of Tampa Bay and Nashville are/were attracting.
Can't really comment on the value of the offer tidbit. Is Cal is referring to the after-tax amount, after utilizing optimal tax planning?
In any case, EIG's credibility isn't hot at the moment. It's a hard time believing ANY of their claims.
Cue, the bashing.
Sunday, August 05, 2007
Wayne Gretzky's Suggestions in 1990

First let me say, reading Wayne Gretzky's autobiography, it should be a lesson to anyone on the importance of school. Terrible, terrible English and vocabulary. Finishing high school at the minimum is essential. Anyways, below Wayne Gretzky highlights his suggestions if he was the NHL Commissioner (Page 214-217).
1) End the Fighting. Make it illegal. Period. If you fight, you're out of the game
2) Expand. The NHL is going into the San Francisco area next year. Great. Now expand to Seattle, Houston, and maybe Milwaukee.
3) Rename the Conferences. It's parochial to call them the Wales Conference and the Campbell Conference....We have enough trouble trying to explain the blue line to people. Just call them East and West.
4) Realign the Conferences. Everybody wants to blame the president, John Ziegler, for the NHLs problems, but he's pretty good. The trouble is that some of the owners always do what's best for their own team, not the game. For instance, the lineup of the conferences is ridiculous, but it's set up so that Toronto and Chicago are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs. What should be done is put 10 teams in one conference, and 11 in the other. As it is now, we play teams in our own conference eight times - which is way too many - and the other teams 3 teams. The new way, we'd play them 6 and 3, respectively. More people would see more players and therefore build interest. Forget the divisons. Keep the playoffs the same and eventually have two conference winners play the Stanley Cup.
5) Bring on Free Agency. Why shouldn't we fight for it? Free agency hasn't hurt any other professional sport. It's only helped baseball. Now football is getting it. Look at the Green Bay Packers. They rebuilt their team mostly from Plan B free agents. If the players wanted to strike for it, I'd strike. The fans don't know it, but it'd be th best thing for the game
6) Institute a week-off plan. By the end of February, the players are so spent that the fans and the owners don't get out of us all they could. The owners have us running all over the country doing exhibition games before the season, then the All-Star game (which now includes an extra day of ''skills'' competition and if you don't don't participate in the skills, you can't play the game) halfway through the season, then the playoffs at the end of the season. That's over 100 days of hockey sometimes. How many years does that take off your career? Give the players a break! Give each time 5 consecutive days off (not counting travel days) in January or February. You never have more than two teams taking the time off at once, so you don't have to shut down anything. The league just keeps right on going. When the players come back, they're playing better and everybody is getting their money's worth.
7) Let the Players make the Rules. In the NHL, the people making the rules usually never played the game. For instance, the league sneaked through a rule that let only ''offficial suppliers'' logos appear on the skates, sticks, and gloves we use. ....blah blah blah
8) Pay the refs more. The top referee in the entire league makes something like $85,000. An everyday linesman makes $30,000. If you want the best refereeing, you've got to pay the price. I mean, would you want to break up those fights.
9) Bring Back ESPN. When the NHL chose Sports Channel America over ESPN, it was another decision by the league to choose the quick bucks over the long term effects. Sure, we got more money from Sports Channel, but how much did we lose in exposure? Who sees Sports Channel anyways? I'll tell you who, only 1 in 10 U.S. Homes, that's who. ESPN, who had bought NHL rights before the Sports Channel outbid them, goes into 51 million homes. Obviously the NHL's decision was based upon what was better for the owner's pocketbooks, not what was better for the game. What a shocker.
10) Let us play in the Olympics. ...Any Questions
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Some excellent thoughts and ideas, but clearly not a guy you can hand over the commissioner title position.
Other notable commentary in his Autobiography
- His best friends were Mess and Kevin
- He has little to no respect for Pocklington
- He mentions that some of the hockey players tried drugs back in the day. He's proud of the fact he's never tried any of them - at least that's what he says.
- He boned Janet and got her pregnant 4 and a half months before marriage.
Saturday, August 04, 2007
UFA Goaltenders - 2008
Mikka Kiprusoff (3.333M)
Jose Theodore (5.333M)
David Aesbicher (0.6M)
Dominik Hasek (4.050M - Performance bonus of 2.0M)
Cristobal Huet (2.875M)
Olaf Kolzig (5.450M)
Notable Goaltenders slated for Restricted Free Agency in the Summer of 2008:
Pascal Leclaire (1.050M)
Henrik Lundqvist (4.250M)
Marc-Andre Fleury (1.6M)
Kari Lehtonen (1.850M)
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Mikka Kiprusoff
The UFA corps looks fair week on paper, save for Kiprusoff and Huet. Kolzig will be 38 by next summer, and you can imagine Hasek will be on his last legs. Theodore's days in the future lean towards the category of a backup.
Early rumors are suggesting Kiprusoff won't be a ''push-over.'' Rumors are also suggesting he may be wishing to go to a place where he isn't in the spotlight. On a recent NHL Network segment, Mikka mentioned how he's enjoyed playing in Calgary, and its ''been a great place for me to start my career.''
Those same words were uttered by the son of billionaire-tycoon Bill Comrie.
Mike Comrie.
I always had the vibe that Mike wasn't as Mr. Edmonton as the media thought him to be. I'm getting that same vibe from Kiprusoff.
This could possibly be his last contract, with the whispers of his lower-body injuries, so you can look for him to cash in. I'm looking at numbers between 7.5-8.0M, and a minimum of 3 years.
So Which Teams Will be Interested in Him?
Colorado - Sitting at 44.666M with Jose Theodore (5.333M) coming off the books. Sakic (6.75M), Brunette (1.6M), Laperriere (1M), Clark, Liles, Sauer all notable UFA's. Svatos, Wolski, Richardson the notable RFA's. Would be tight, but you can bet they'll be hunting in the market for a goaltender
Los Angeles - Sitting at 42.699M with Mike Cammalleri's arbitration to be decided. Definitely looking for a solution in net, and they will have the flexibility to do so with Nagy, Thornton, Willsie, Blake (6M), Stuart, Tverdovsky, Modry, Dallman as notable unrestricted Free agents. Dustin Brown and Patrick O'Sullivan the only notable RFA's. With the cash flow to withstand burning Cloutiers 3.1M salary in the minors, expect them to go hard after Kiprusoff.
Phoenix - Phoenix would provide Mikka with a low-key lifestyle. Cap space really isn't an issue, with Phoenix grinding with the Cap floor. Though with Phoenix rebuilding, that may prove be a hindrance.
Columbus - Sitting at 37.977M at the moment, with contracts of Chimera (1.0M), Federov (6.080M) Vyborny (2.2M), and Foote (4.6M) to expire. There will be plenty of money to play with.
Detroit - Sitting at 45.262M, with Hasek (4.050M), Draper (2.128M), Cleary (0.675M), Lidstrom (7.6M), Lilja, Chelios set to become UFA's. I would expect Lidstrom, Cleary, and Draper (reduced price), and Lilja to be brought back. A winning franchise may just lead Mikka to jump on their ship.
Montreal - Sitting at 44.683M with Huet (2.750M), Ryder (2.950M), Smolinksi (2.0M) the only significant UFA's. Kostitsyn and Murray the only significant RFA's. Montreal's attractive nightlife, and cap space flexibility may assist in a healthy marriage.
Washington - Sitting at 35.137M with Kolzig (5.450M) the only noteworthy UFA. On the restricted front however, Ovechkin, Semin, Sutherby, Eminger, and Morrisonn. Would be a bit difficult should Ovechkin be re-signed near the maximum
In any event, there will be no shortage of interest in Mikka Kiprusoff. Call it my prediction, Mikka lands in Los Angeles.
Friday, August 03, 2007
Reason to be optimistic RE: Penner
Unreasonable Demands - "A Declaration of War"

Bruce Dowbiggin highlights in his book, Money Players , a memo sent by the NHL to its players in the summer of 1994.
These unreasonable demands forced the 1994 lockout, leading to an abbreviated NHL season
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Please be advised that the NHL, effective on or about September 1, 1994, plans to unilaterally impose the following measures on NHL Players:
1) Mandatory two-way contracts
2) The elimination of salary arbitration
3) The elimination of guaranteed contracts and buy-out provisions
4) The reduction of the players' playoffs and awards fund from $9M to $2M
5) The elimination of all per-diem allowances
6) Roster size reduced to 17 skaters and 2 goaltenders, major league roster reduced to 22 players
7) Force players to pay the first $750 of the medical cost per insure person and co-insurance of 70% (NHL) and 30% (insured person) to $10,000
8) The elimination of the senior player benefit. Force players earning in excess of $350,000 to pay 50% of the annual pension contribution
9) Compulsory currency conversion. Players traded between a Canadian club and a U.S. club shall have the amounts of their salaries and bonuses converted to the currency of the country to which the player was traded
10) Clubs will no longer pay the players to travel from summer residence to the club's home city prior to training camp and at the conclusion of the season.
11) NHL's discipline increased to $50,000
12) Players required to wear only approved NHL apparel off the ice. League will dictate "Skates, sticks, helmets etc." for all players
13) Mandatory community service, public appearance, and commercial appearances
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There you have it.
Greed is a two-way street

