Thursday, August 02, 2007

The Overvaluation of Draft Picks

I must admit, I haven't a clue on the 2008 draft prospects.




However, the hockey world is quick to call it one of the deeper drafts in recent history.

So would the 2003 draft be a good comparable?

Where would the Oilers fit in pre-Prenner Offersheet? Is it Lowe's job to tank the team to obtain a top 5 pick? If Penner is not signed to an offersheet, does that mean Lowe would go in the season without addressing the forward issue?

I must admit, most of the top 10 from the 2003 draft look like they'll have solid careers down the road. From 11-20, you see a bigger dropoff, although still gems in Getzlaf, Seabrook, and possibly Parise. From 21-30 (likely where the Oilers pick obtained from Anaheim the FCP deal) there are good support/2nd tier guys, but the Oilers seem to have plenty of them in the system with Pouliot, O'Marra, Chorney, Nash, etc. The other part of it is - it will take 3-4 years before we begin to realize the value of these draft picks.

Draft picks after the 1st round are ridiculously overrated

From the 2nd round - I count 4 solid players (Bergeron, Carle, O'Sullivan, Weber)

In the 3rd round, only 1 notable player (Picard).

Therefore, the only reasonable benchmark comparison should be the 1st round.

So where does Penner fit in with the 2003 (making the assumption the 2008 draft class is similar and using hindsight) 1st round class? Behind MAF, Staal, Horton, Vanek, Michalek, Suter, Phaneuf, Seabrook, Getzlaf, and Parise, putting him 11th overall.

I'll take this bet.


PunjabiNuck said...

I would rather have Zherdev, Getzlaf, Perry, Richards, Carter than Penner and your missing that you would have that prospect playing for.850 rather than 4.5 mill however you guys have enough room now but will you in a couple years when you expect to spend the max 4.5 for Penner will be hurting you

Shannon said...

Two things
1) If your team learns to scout, then those draft picks become more valuable. Look at the top teams. Hell, the Wings made a living for 10 years out of pulling random Europeans out of the draft in late rounds and making them into superstars. Consequently, they and the Avs and Devils (who also make very smart moves and scout/draft very well) owned the league for 10 years. Sorry that the Oil lack the inability to scout or draft well. Maybe thats why they overrate such young players as Lopul or *gasp* Penner.

2) The other important part is not necessarily that you draft these kids and get them on your roster. The important thing is to draft these kids, and fill your purse with extra resources. That way, when the blue moon comes out and a star is on the trade block, you can trade prospects + draft picks for a star. Kinda like a certain New York team did last year for someone who was highly regarded in Edmonton. You have to set yourself up to be able to make the big move when it presents itself (without dicking yourself over trying to CREATE a big move). Stocking up on draft picks and prospects is part of doing that.

PunjabiOil said...

Shannon, you bring up excellent points, especially point 2.

I'm still not convinced the Penner deal was the correct or poor move - I'm on the fence right now, and most certainly time will tell the story.