Below I outline a list of reasons that promote optimism of the 2008-2009 Edmonton Oilers franchise. I follow up with an outline of reasons to curb that enthusiasm.
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC
- "Tone At The Top" – Daryl Katz vision, resources, and enthusiasm increase player morale, and promote competency.
- The Oilers got rid of players (Stoll and Pitkanen) who allegedly had:
- Desires to play elsewhere, and;
- Commitment issues surrounding them
- All opposition teams in the NW have on paper, got worse. This by itself, should marginally improve the Oilers by at least 2-3 points in the standings.
- The Oilers should, by virtue of experience gained in the past season, do better in terms of protecting late-game leads.
- Presumable improvement in the conditioning department for Dustin Penner. It would be unlikely that he doesn't improve on his 1.34EV/60 rate.
- Presumable improvement with age with respect to Ales Hemsky. He statistically had a great season, and that should continue as he's close to entering the prime of his career.
- Shawn Horcoff, arguably the Oilers best player, who has been virtually injury free in his career, should be expected to play 75+ games, as opposed to the 53 in 2007-2008.
- Erik Cole brings in size and speed to the top six. He was tied for 2nd in the league, with respect to number of penalties drawn (43). He only took 10 minor penalties himself.
- With respect to penalties taken and penalties drawn, gone are Stoll (25:21), Pitkanen (23:8), Reasoner (19:10), Greene (10:5) SOURCE: BEHINDTHENET.CA
- Lubomir Visnovsky fills Chris Pronger's skates on the point of the PP – a role inefficiently replaced over the past two seasons. This will presumably open room for Sheldon Souray on the other point, thus a case of utilizing resources to their strengths.
- Lubomir's 5.2% SH % last season was well below the 11.3% and 11.2% marks the two previous years.
- Fernando Pisani, arguably the Oilers best defensive forward, will have a training camp behind his belt and be ready on contribute at a high level in October, as opposed to January.
- Ethan "I-hate-Milk" Moreau should be expected to play and demonstrate leadership for more than 25 games.
- Robert Nilsson, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov, Kyle Brodziak, Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Zach Stortini, and Ladislav Smid should on a collective basis, improve on the results of past season.
- The team's best goaltender, Garon, is expected to be a starter from opening day. It can be argued Craig MacTavish waited too long in the season before making a goaltending change, which effectively cost the team points.
CURB THAT ENTHUSIASM
- The jury is still out on Garon, whether he can deliver a high level of performance for a full NHL season.
- Ugly schedule to begin the season. For a young team, a poor start can be more difficult to recover
- Injury issues, like the past two seasons, may continue to arise.
- Shawn Horcoff is unlikely to duplicate his ~18% shooting percentage. Further consideration should be paid to the health of his shoulder.
- Have Souray's shoulder injuries made him a "damaged good?"
- Gilbert isn't going to duplicate his ~13% SH %. Just isn't.
- The Oilers lost key tough minute eaters and successful face-off contributors in Marty Reasoner and Jarrett Stoll. Will the Brodziak's and Pouliot's adequately replace them?
- The Western Conference should continue to be competitive, giving the Oilers little margin for error.
VERDICT
Please continue to remain optimistic.
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6 comments:
The only edit I would make that is worth mentioning:
The Oilers got rid of players (Stoll, Torres and Pitkanen) who allegedly had:
Desires to play elsewhere, and;
Commitment issues surrounding them
the oilers seem to perpetually tread water. http://mmafight.ca even with an even playing field, they're still seemingly an NHL farm team.
Hey cheech, did anyone ever tell you it's not the nineties anymore?
Good stuff, PJO.
I really think that your first point, re Katz's vision, impacted your second point.
He's made it pretty clear that 'community' is a key directive. Does anyone really think the Oilers would have pursued Laraque without Katz' involvement, direct or otherwise? And though I'm not the type of fan that really cares much about what players do off of the ice, the quick departures of Stoll, Pitkanen and Torres.
I mean look through the Oilers roster now and try to complete this sentence with an Oiler name and vice "Man, that belligerent *** guy really pissed Slipper off with his ***-fuelled antics!". It's not easy to do, is it?
The true test is whether or not Pat Laforge continues to crap on players after they've left the team. I would be shocked if he does. Personally, I'm surprised and disappointed that Laforge still has gainful employment with the Oilers. To me he has the aura of a retail electronics salesman, and after shaking his hand I always count my fingers. And a lot of folks around the blogs seem to feel the same way.
One other thing to add, to bolster your point on Visnovsky's shooting percentage drop likely being a one-off.
Gregor interviewed Marc Crawford the other night and he said that the scoring chances were still coming for Vis, but the finish wasn't there last year. That stuff just happens to everybody it seems. Like you, I see him on the left PP point, and I think he makes a real difference there next season.
Good stuff, PJO.
Thanks man. That means something, coming from you.
He's made it pretty clear that 'community' is a key directive.
Absolutely.
Perhaps this can explain why an 18 year old Sam Gagner and 20 year old Andrew Cogliano are in town right now for the Oilers hockey school, signing autographs for kids.
The true test is whether or not Pat Laforge continues to crap on players after they've left the team. I would be shocked if he does. Personally, I'm surprised and disappointed that Laforge still has gainful employment with the Oilers. To me he has the aura of a retail electronics salesman, and after shaking his hand I always count my fingers. And a lot of folks around the blogs seem to feel the same way.
Heh, nice line.
Two of Patrick LaForge's largest public blunders include:
a) Calling Anson Carter a jerk, in a presentation on the importance of community involvement [Grant McEwan College]
b) Called Doug Weight a "pussy" infront of a public crown at an Oilers Stanley Cup pep rally at Nortlands. This drew criticism from mothers, parents, and Dan Barnes.
I have no doubts Patrick has been told to ''Tone it down.''
A point to consider is that Katz may be waiting until his contract runs out, before changing ship. Who knows, that's just speculation on my part.
Another interesting point on Katz: Someone allegedly close to Katz mentioned something interesting at Lowetide's a few months ago. He/she asserted that Katz was unimpressed with some of the public statements members of the organization have made, to which the statements devalue their assets. Case in point, one of the Oilers scouts publicly stated there was cause for concern in Robbie Schremp's desire to compete for battles in the corners. He/she asserted that Katz would not tolerate such undermining of company assets.
Like you, I see him on the left PP point, and I think he makes a real difference there next season.
I recently read that you believe defencemen earning a premium must be a difference maker on the PP. On those grounds, I can understand why you weren't very interested in paying Joni Pitkanen - historically, his PP/60 numbers have been sub par.
On the same note, while not a defenceman, Jarrett Stoll's PP/60 was north of 4. How much of a significant upgrade will Visnovsky be?
On surface, their numbers were close, questioning the upgrade. However, while Stoll has a tremendous asset in his shot, he couldn't run the PP or distribute the puck efficiently. On those grounds, I can see Visnovsky's distributing skills, in addition to his shot, create room for others and improve the team's overall PP numbers.
Interesting times ahead.
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