Playing the RFA Game

Based on 2007-2008 NHL Salary Cap of 50.3M, the RFA Offer sheet compensation was as follows:

Amount	Compensation Due
$773,442 or less	None
$773,442 - $1,171,882	3rd round pick
$1,171,882 - $2,343,764	2nd round pick
$2,343,764 - $3,515,645	1st and 3rd round pick
$3,515,645 - $4,687,527	1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
$4,687,527 - $5,859,412	Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
$5,859,412 or more	Four 1st round picks

As the cap goes up, these figures adjust.

The Edmonton Oilers have the following Restricted Free Agents in the summer of 2008:

Jarret Stoll
Robert Nilsson
Joni Pitkanen
Tom Gilbert
Denis Grebeshkov
Marc Pouliot
JF Jacques
Zach Stortini

FILTERING OUT THE DATA
Stortini is extremely unlikely to receive an RFA offer sheet.

JF Jacques is another guy that is unlikely to garner much interest.

MAP, although possibly will become a regular NHLer one day, has yet to prove himself in the NHL

That leaves us with:

Jarret Stoll
Robert Nilsson
Joni Pitkanen
Tom Gilbert
Denis Grebeshkov

SOME CONCERN

Say Jarett Stoll gets a 3.5M offersheet. Do you take the 1st and the 3rd?

Assume Robert Nilsson is really a full time player, and he receives a 2.2M offersheet. 2.2M is too much coin, but at the same time a 2nd round pick is insufficient compensation. Do you really want to lose the center piece of the Ryan Smyth deal over 1M?

Joni Pitkanen, meanwhile is recipient of a 4.6M offersheet. Is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd suffient for a guy who was a top 5 pick?

Tom Gilbert gets his well earned, 2.3M offersheet? Any choice but to match?

Denis Grebeshkov - 1.5M. Is a 2nd rounder enough?

So why the concern? You end up with guys on the lower end of the chart ripe for picking, at salaries beyond their value towards the hockey club. In other words, you won't be receiving the same ''bang-for-your-buck" as you initially anticipated. At the same time, the compensation is insufficient, forcing you to reluctantly cough up the money.

PROTECTING YOUR ASSETS

Just like players can take advantage of negotiating with other teams, GMs can essentially protect their assets (RFA's) by taking them into arbitration. The kicker is that a player can only be taken to arbitration once in his career (which makes Pitkanen ineligible for team-applied arbitration), and the player must have 4 years or professional hockey experience. Using Mike Cammalleri's 3.1M and 3.6M arbitration award (despite posting 55 and 80 points in the past 2 years) for the next two years, perhaps Kevin Lowe should be thinking hard about taking Jarrett Stoll to arbitration. Especially if he ends up with 30-40 points.*

*Assumption made that he's not packaged in a trade by the summer of '08

I'm not sure what the deal is with Tom Gilbert, a guy who played a full 4 years in the NCAA, followed up with a season in the AHL and currently in the NHL.

Dennis Grebeshkov can be taken into arbitration as well.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

I'm not really sure what will happen.

Since the lock-out, there have been only 3 RFA offersheets, 2 of them by Kevin Lowe. History, therefore suggests there isn't much to worry about. On the flip side of the coin, we've seen numerous clubs lock up their top young players on long term deals, post-Vanek offer sheet. It will be an interesting summer - will the GM's break the ''old boys network'' or carry on the illegal activity in the name of collusion?

Perhaps, like every summer, UFA's will dominate the market, some at prices or terms that are clearly beyond logic.

OR

Perhaps a guy like Dion Phaneuf will receive an offersheet in the range below:

$4,687,527 - $5,859,412

Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick

Perhaps a guy like Ovechkin will receive an offersheet in the range below:

$5,859,412 or more

Four 1st round picks

Perhaps Buffalo does indeed seek revenge against the Oilers and throw an offer at Nilsson or Pitkanen.

Not that I have a problem with it - it's a legal tool available for GM's to improve their hockey team. Why teams allowed the NJ Devils in the summer of 2005 to sign 3 UFA's, pressed at the cap, without consequences (i.e. Paul Martin, an RFA possibly available for only a 2nd round pick) is beyond me.

RFA offersheets - they really are fair game. Aside from rookies coming off their entry level contracts, a smart GM will make sure he that he protects his most valuable young assets or locks up good young players for the long run.

It will be interesting to see where Kevin Lowe falls, going forward.