The Sympathy Contract?

Mathieu Roy (Livelihood Stats) will not have a lengthy term NHL career as an Edmonton Oiler.

Mathieu Roy has a one-way contract for the 2008-2009 NHL season at a 0.500M cap hit. He will be compensated this amount regardless of whether he's with the Oilers, or buried in the minors after clearing waivers.

Unless, of course, he is bought out before today's (Monday) 3 p.m. MDT NHL deadline.

The Edmonton Oilers presently boast a defensive crops of:

Sheldon Souray, Joni Pitkanen, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov, Steve Staios, Lubomir Visnovsky, and Ladislav Smid.

That's 7. With Taylor Chorney, Theo Peckham, and Josaf Hrabral breathing heavily.

Given the fact he hasn't played enough games, Roy can be bought out for a mere 1/3 of his contract, effectively ~166,667, over double the length of the contract (2 years). This would effectively mean, a minute 83,333 cap hit over the next 2 years.

Is this a sympathy contract, with the Oilers wishing to stay true to their commitment? Or does Roy really figure in the Oilers plan of press-box defenseman?

Finding a Dance Partner.....

"Talk is cheap, shut up and dance/don't get deep, shut up and dance."

- Aerosmith

I feel like I'm stealing from LT, using lyrics that fit the Oilers situation here, but it just fit too well, dammit. Kevin Lowe has talked, and talked, and talked, since he dealt Pronger. But he hasn't done a whole lot besides talk, and it's time for him to just shut up, find a dance partner, and make some magic happen. If we have to wait any longer, we're going to have to hear about his new hair cut....

Since the lockout, Kevin Lowe has entered every season with an unbalanced roster. In 05-06 we saw the Conkabostonaccentnenn experiment. Following that, the Oilers rolled up the rim all of 06-07, with a D Corps that left everyone wanting a lot more, and last year we hit the ground running with more rookies than the Florida Marlins usually have.

This year?

There's a lot of 6's and 7's, and a lot of guys who sure look like they're on their way to becoming Q's and K's... but there's also very few actual Q's and K's. Thanks to a hot streak at the end of the season that clearly wasn't sustainable, the Oilers fan base is expecting a playoff birth.

Looking at the depth chart, an argument can be made that the Oilers have as many as 17 forwards and 8 D who should at the least be in the pressbox instead of in the AHL. They've paid their dues, and it's time for the Oilers to make a decision. Lets assume that Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky, Gagner, Moreau, Pisani and Nilsson are the forwards not moving anywhere for any reason, and that Souray, Pitkanen, Grebeshkov, Gilbert and Staios are the D that can safely own instead of rent. That leaves: Cogliano (Who is only dealt in a deal that brings back a young, star), Smid, Greene, Schremp, Pouliot, Stoll, Torres and Chorney as players of interest.

The Oilers needs are pretty obvious from my standpoint, either a LW to improve the top unit and allow Penner to give some toughness and take some time with two of the kids, or a legit D. First round picks certainly aren't a bad thing, but they're not going to come easily in another hyped draft, unless we're dealing two players to a very desperate team.

Basically, the Oilers can offer young depth to a rebuilding team. Smid and Greene would certainly garner interest, Cogliano is a deal breaker, and a lot of teams would still like guys like Torres and Stoll on their roster. Chorney is pretty close to being a blue chip guy himself, and Pouliot and Schremp at this point in their careers are more of a throw in to finish a deal. We know the Oilers won't won't make deals with any of Calgary, Vancouver, Colorado, Buffalo or Anaheim for varying reasons. I wouldn't rule out a deal with Minnesota.

So first, we'll look for teams that actually have that player who could or could not be the missing piece and whom the Oilers will deal with, and whom presumably could be available for the right package. We'll get into the package after. Basically, right now we're just identifying youngish LW's and youngish D's who have high upside, but aren't Alexander Ovechkin. They must at least be Sophomores, but ideally we're talking about a guy on his second contract.

Atlanta - Kovalchuk, Exelby
Carolina - Cole, Williams
Chicago - Havlat, Keith
Columbus - Zherdev, Tollefsen
Florida - Bouwmeester
LA - Frolov
Minnesota - Gaborik
Montreal - Higgins, Komisarek
Nashville - Hamhuis
New Jersey - Elias
Philly - Gagne
Phoenix - 1st in '09
Pittsburgh - 1st in '09
San Jose - Michalek
St. Louis - Kariya, McKee
Tampa - 1st in '09, Ranger
Toronto - 1st in '09, Steen
Washington - Semin, Green

Now, I'm not denying there are some big, big name tickets on the board there. The chances of actually landing a guy like Kovalchuk or Gaborik are minimal at best, but that's not the point of this exercise. What I'm looking for here simply, is to name every possible acquisition that wouldn't cost the moon and would improve the team in one way or another. The 1st's don't immediately improve the team by any stretch, but in this draft, and with those teams windows, I think all of them could and would be available in the right deal.

The next question here, of course, is what teams here would be interested in pulling a quality for quantity deal? What teams here are in desperate need of some filler for their roster? Which teams here need to either blow it up and hope for a quick reload through a lot of assets, are in cap trouble, or absolutely need to go into win now mode?

From that list of teams, I would say:

Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Florida, LA, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa and Toronto fit one of those descriptions and would at least consider a package.

What would a package of Torres, Smid and Greene look like to Tampa Bay? Does that get you Paul Ranger and their 1st? What about Cogliano, Smid, Schremp and Stoll for Kovalchuk? How much would Pittsburgh part with for Torres and Greene, attempting to replace Malone and Orpik? What about Toronto? What would they give up for a guy like Jarret Stoll, who could inject some much needed heart into that room?

Either way, I think we're looking at something like Lowe is right now. He knows who he'll move, and he knows what he wants, and he should hopefully know what the other teams needs are.... so where's the match here? What combination of the above players gets us what I've listed?

Alex Tanguay to Mike Cammalleri is a downgrade

PDO and I were discussing this last night. I initally thought it was a good move for the Flames. PDO disagreed, and brought up a few good points. He has now convinced me this move is a huge step back for the Flames:

1) Last year, Cammalleri had the 2nd easiest QUAL COMP rating on the Kings, with a -0.04 QUAL COMP Rating. Tanguay had the toughest minutes on the Flames, with a QUAL COMP of +0.07

BEHIND THE NET - QUAL COMP - LA

BEHIND THE NET - QUAL COMP - CGY

2) In Cammalleri's best season he put up 80 points, only 43 of those came at even strength.

In Alex Tanguay's worst NHL season in recent memory last year, 45 of his points were on EV.

Cammalleri will help the powerplay, but that may be negligible with the pending loss of Kristian Huselius. It seems Calgary were a better team pre-draft. Losing 8 spots in the first round didn't help the trade evaluation in their favor either.

*Special thanks to PDO for the argument's foundation

Why Joni Pitkanen May Be Traded

Kevin Lowe wasted little time prioritizing and getting a signature from the likes of Tom Gilbert, Robert Nilsson, and Denis Grebeshkov.

On the flip side of the coin are: Joni Pitkanen. Jarrett Stoll. Marc-Antoine Pouliot. Zach Stortini. JF Jacques. 5 assets of the Edmonton Oilers that are vulnerable to an RFA offersheet. The latter three will have minimal interest around the league. With Jarrett Stoll, the compensation may be sufficient. However, Joni Pitkanen’s situation is coming eerily disturbing every counting day he is left unsigned.

Joni Pitkanen has been whispered to be on the market the moment he was traded to the Oilers last July. If there are few sources, you are inclined to dismiss these rumours without second thought. However, when the sea is bursting, you are left with little discretion but to gaze. From NY, to LA, to Carolina, there appears strong interest in obtaining the young Finnish defenseman. Given that Pitkanen wasn’t prioritized at the top of the global urban food chain, and left vulnerable to the RFA offersheet (Team elected arbitration was not applicable), you really wonder how devoted Kevin Lowe is retaining his services.

According to NHLSCAP.com, the compensation for an RFA Offersheet will be:

Amount Compensation Due
$863,156 or less None
$863,156 - $1,307,811 3rd round pick
$1,307,811 - $2,615,623 2nd round pick
$2,615,623 - $3,923,434 1st and 3rd round pick
$3,923,434 - $5,231,246 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
$5,231,246 - $6,539,061 Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
$6,539,061 or more Four 1st round picks

The upper end of the bolded category is what I fear. Too much to the extent that it is no longer a value contract in the short term; and too low to the extent that the compensation is insufficient for a young man who was the Oilers best defenceman last season and has Norris-Trophy Potential.

Perhaps Kevin Lowe realizes this. Perhaps he realizes the possibility that negotiating with Joni will not be an effortless task. Perhaps he realizes that he will be put in a very tough position if the offersheet is received at the end of July; too late to dip in the free agent market and find a sufficient value contract, and insufficient compensation levels that will most certainly leave the 2008 Oilers defence corps in an unsightly position. Perhaps Kevin Lowe realizes all of the above.

Which is why, and not necessarily saying I be of the same opinion, believe there is a good possibility that Joni Pitkanen will be traded within the next 15 days.

Did You Know...

Wayne Gretzky received a honorary degree at the University of Alberta in 2000?

OLD LINK

Playoff Predictions Pool - Final Results

Thank you for participating

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

Overall Standings after 4 of 4 rounds:
LittleFury 140+10=150 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 110+40=150 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 140+0=140
doritogrande 100+40=140
JambonDan 130
YKOil 120+0=120
PDO 120+20=120
Jonathan 100+20=120
Paulus 100+10=110
Mr DeBakey 100
jon 70
Oilman 50
Jon G 20

Round 4 Results
doritogrande 40 (CO-WINNER)
MikeW 40 (CO-WINNER)
Jonathan 20
PDO 20
Paulus 10
LittleFury 10
YKOIL 0
PunjabiOil 0

Round 3 Results:
PunjabiOil 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
PDO 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+10=20
LittleFury 10+10=20
DeBakey 10+10=20
Jonathan 10+10=20
Paulus 0+20=20
YKOil 20+0=20
doritogrande 0+0=0

Round 2 Results:
JambonDan 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 10+10+20=40
Paulus 20+10=30
doritogrande 10+10+10=30
Jonathan 10+10=20
LittleFury 20
Jon G 20
YKOil 10
PDO 10
DeBakey 0

Round 1 Results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40

Off-Season Approach

Dan Tencer dos a nice job getting the goods out of Craig MacTavish and Kevin Lowe,

Some excerpts:

ON TRADING

MacTavish

The young bodies also complicate things. Going down the roster, the numbers don't add up. There are too many names for too few spots. "It's a simple mathematical equation at this point," says MacTavish. "There are more players than there are positions. They're all good players so there's going to be good competition barring a multiple player deal."

Lowe

"We look at it and go ok, who's going to be here, because we've got a lot of bodies. Now it's a matter of me and the organization to do the best to manage the assets and improve the hockey team. If that means potentially getting into a situation where we move three or four assets for one or two coming back, that might be a good thing."

The hints are there, but unlike last year, a more conservative approach to the offseason has been taken


ON REASONER:

MacTavish

"I want Reasoner back for sure," MacTavish told me matter-of-factly. "He's a valuable member of our team. We'd be remisce in a lot of respects not to bring him back. We're hopeful that we can get him signed."

Lowe

Kevin Lowe acknowledges Reasoner's value, but doesn't have the same cut-and-dry feeling as his head coach. "I've talked to Marty's agent saying we have interest in bringing Marty back but we also have a lot of bodies right now so we have to see what unfolds in the next weeks and months."

Somewhat conflicting approaches. MacTavish has his favourites, but Marty was terrific in the last half of the year. He was instrumental on the penalty-kill, and played one of the toughest minutes on the Oilers. Lowe probably is juggling on whether there is enough room going forward down the middle:

Horcoff
Gagner
Stoll
Brodziak

Pouliot
Schremp
Nash

Of course you can convert some of them on the wing, but there is only so much room. I would personally approach Reasoner with a 2M/2 year take-it-or-leave it offer.

ON GLENCROSS

Lowe

"If his mindset or his agent's mindset is that this is his one kick at really hitting a home run then he's probably going to end up doing it in free agency and not necessarilly with us at this point," Lowe stated.

"It just might work out that he ends up going elsewhere. We certainly have enough bodies here so that's not a concern."

"We like the way he finished the year and we like his enthusiasm. He's a great kid and I think he has upside in his game. But, like I said before, we're piecing a puzzle together and we have higher end guys making more money so we have to find the right number where he can fit into our future and not hurt us in terms of bringing other guys in or retaining other guys."

You have to love this. In all likelihood, Glencross will turn out to be a legitimate NHL player - but every man has a price limit, and every bottom six player is replaceable.

Carefully selected words by Lowe - perhaps to put some heat on the Glencross party.

ON TEAM NEEDS & FREE AGENCY

Lowe

"If we can add to our team by upgrading our scoring and some of our toughness, we have the assets to do it," says Kevin Lowe.

"We don't have to rely on free agency to do it. That doesn't mean we won't be listening or making calls on July 1st."

MacTavish

"When you look at some of the other teams and their situation and our situation there's going to be some very interesting dialogue between us and a couple or three other teams who are looking to shed some salary cap and add some depth," said MacTavish.

Raffi Torres? Jarrett Stoll, whom the Oilers have been mum regarding a contract extension?


ON PITKANEN

Mactavish

Craig MacTavish would love to have another year to evaluate Pitkanen, though, before making a decision. "I think that's fair," started MacTavish. "We had a real good discussion with him in terms of what our expectation was for him and whether he had the willingness to work and change some of the aspects of his game. We're not talking about fundamental changes in his game; we're talking about subtle changes in his game and playing the game more situationally. It's just managing those decisions of when it makes sense for him to jump up in the play and when it doesn't."

Just a possibility - the Oilers were kicking tires about moving Pitkanen, and didn't like the offers.

ON ROLOSON

MacTavish

"It's a difficult situation for a guy like Dwayne who works so hard and puts so much time into being a number one goalie," says Craig MacTavish. "That discussion will be very important in terms of what our direction is with our goaltending. From my perspective, I'd certainly like to have him back."

Does Kevin Lowe?

ON GETTING RESULTS

MacTavish

"Pressure on an NHL head coach. It's business as usual; we'll all be evaluated based on the success that we have. It's a foregone conclusion that if you don't have success for an extended period of time that you'll be looking for elsewhere. That's part of the job. I've lived with it since the day I signed a contract to coach here in Edmonton and I'll be living with it next year. Business as usual from my perspective."

Lowe

"We didn't prove anything. We had a nice 20 odd game run and there's lots of optimism but I do know that when the puck drops next October that it's going to be a grind to make the playoffs."

Saying all the right things. Great quotes in the blog entry by Tencer to chew on.

Doesn't it almost seem as if Craig MacTavish is a co-GM these days?

NHL Spring League?

Would this idea work?

The NBA already has it's summer league, in which teams consist of players who have been in the league for 3 years or less as well as newly drafted youngsters.

Would there be enough interest to watch the Bobby Schremp's or Marc-Antoine Pouliot's in July? Or will hockey fans, including Canadians, scoff at the notion and go back to their regularly scheduled baseball and barbeques?

It's an interesting concept put forth by former GM Mike Barnett. Perhaps the league should be limied to 10 teams, with 3 NHL teams sharing a summer league team. Perhaps venues should be limited to non-NHL cities and change annually, to keep the fan interest intact. Lots of possibilies, and in the sake of prospect development, this notion warrants further consideration.

Playoff Prediction Pool - Stanley Cup Final

Get your picks in!

Anyone is welcome, whether they participated in the previous rounds or not.

TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE FINAL ROUND
20 points for correct team. 40 points for correct team and number of games. 10 points for correct number of games, but wrong team.

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

The competitive standings are calculated below. Please notify if there are any miscalculations.

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
STANLEY CUP FINAL - ROUND #4

My Picks (in bold):

Series A: Detroit vs Pittsburgh - 7 games

Round 3 Results:
PunjabiOil 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
PDO 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+10=20
LittleFury 10+10=20
DeBakey 10+10=20
Jonathan 10+10=20
Paulus 0+20=20
YKOil 20+0=20
doritogrande 0+0=0

Round 2 Results:
JambonDan 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 10+10+20=40
Paulus 20+10=30
doritogrande 10+10+10=30
Jonathan 10+10=20
LittleFury 20
Jon G 20
YKOil 10
PDO 10
DeBakey 0

Round 1 Results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40

Overall Standings after 3 of 4 rounds:
LittleFury 120+20=140
PunjabiOil 110+30=140
JambonDan 130+0=130
YKOil 100+20=120
PDO 90+30=120
MikeP 90+20=110
doritogrande 100+0=100
Mr DeBakey 80+20=100
Jonathan 80+20=100
Paulus 80+20=100
jon 70+0=70
Oilman 50+0=50
Jon G 20

Martin Erat Signed - 7 year/31M deal

Former Red Deer Rebel, and memorial cup champ in 2001, is set for life.

Dave Poile did another great job. Signed a 26 year old who gives up 6 years of unrestricted free agency, heading into the prime of his career, to a respectable 4.5M/year deal.

CAREER NUMBERS

Perhaps a bit too much today, but given free agency, age, and most importantly length of contract - I'm a fan of this deal.

Are you?

Detroit Red Wings - The Template of a Successful Franchise

The Detroit Red Wings have been a template of a successful NHL franchise. Dominance in the win-loss category over the past 15 years, exceptional scouting, and a strong desire by players to play for the franchise. GM Ken Holland has done a masterful job negotiating contracts. There are quite a number of players significantly overperforming their contract's cap hit.

They include:

Kronwall, Niklas (3.000)
Zetterberg, Henrik (2.650)
Holmstrom, Tomas (2.250)
Samuelsson, Mikael (1.200)
Chelios, Chris (1.150)
Franzen, Johan (0.942)
Osgood, Chris (0.850)
Filppula, Valtteri (0.733)
Cleary, Daniel (0.662)

Of course many of these players will (already have) receive(d) significant raises in their next contract, but it's remarkable how none of these players are in their entry level contracts, when the window opportunity for ''bang-for-your-buck" is at its peak. I also have confidence in Holland to replenish that talent when one of these players prices himself out of Detroit.

Players like Cleary (2.800) and Osgood (1.417), Lidstrom (7.450), Draper (1.583) have recently signed extensions at very reasonable dollars. One can argue all of these have potential for overperformance of the contract.

You can look at the entire cap list and find it difficult to locate an overpaid contract. Perhaps Hasek, but that is for only 1 year. Rafalski may slow down by the end of the contract - but we'll see. Other than that however, this is an astute job by GM Ken Holland.

What inspired me to look closely at Detroit's situation?

Recent rumblings by Robin Brownlee, who posts on the Oilersnation blog (link on right), suggest Curtis Glencross is asking in the neighborhood of $2M. Can't say I don't like the player - he provides energy, hits, and has improved his scoring touch over the past few years. Yet, Kevin Lowe must exercise skeptism in this case, given the fact Curtis boasted a 22% shooting percentage in Edmonton, wasn't a full-time NHLer in Columbus, and played very soft minutes pn the 4th line. Anywhere near the 1.5M range and the Oilers aren't getting a player who will likely overperform his contract. With this topic on the table, how do the Oilers fare in terms of getting value from their contracts?

Let's examine closely to next year's cap situation.

Overperforming Contracts
Hemsky, Ales (4.100)
Horcoff, Shawn (3.600)
Gagner, Sam (1.625) - Entry Level Contract
Cogliano, Andrew (1.133) - Entry Level Contract
Stortini, Zack (0.534) - Entry Level Contract
Brodziak, Kyle (0.497)
Garon, Mathieu (1.100)

Reasonably Performing Contracts
Pisani, Fernando (2.500)
Reasoner, Marty (~1.00) - projected in next contract
Nilsson, Robert (2.000)
Staios, Steve (2.700)
Greene, Matt (1.150)
Grebeshkov, Denis (1.500)
Smid, Ladislav (.886) - Entry Level Contract

Underperforming Contracts
Penner, Dustin (4.250)
Torres, Raffi (2.250) - Slightly
Moreau, Ethan (2.000) - Slightly even when healthy
Souray, Sheldon (5.400)
Roy, Mathieu (0.500)
Roloson, Dwayne (3.667)

*Too early to tell:
(RFA's) Pouliot, Pitkanen, Stoll.
(UFA) Glencross
*Tempted to throw Gilbert in the underperforming contract for next season

Many of the overperforming contracts come in the form of rookie contracts. Horcoff and Garon becomes less of a bargain in their next contract. Likewise, as good of a player Pitkanen is, he'll be getting reasonably paid in his next contract, and like Gilbert's contract, it will be of the ''pay for potential'' variety. On the flip side of the coin, Roloson and Roy will cease to be in the underperforming list when their contracts expire next summer. It's also probably not fair to include Penner, since it was REQUIRED to overpay to obtain him.

In Summary, Kevin Lowe has done an OK job negotiating contracts.

But, he's no Ken Holland.

Dion and "The Girl Next Door"

UGLINESS

Playoff Predictions - Round 3 - Conference Finals

Get your picks in!

Anyone is welcome, whether they participated in the previous rounds or not.

10 points for correct team. 20 points for correct team and number of games. 0 points for correct number of games, but wrong team.

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

The competitive standings are calculated below. Please notify if there are any miscalculations.

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
CONFERENCE FINALS - ROUND #3

My Picks (in bold):

Series A: Detroit vs Dallas - 5 games

Series B: Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia - 5 games

Round 2 Results:
JambonDan 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 10+10+20=40
Paulus 20+10=30
doritogrande 10+10+10=30
Jonathan 10+10=20
LittleFury 20
Jon G 20
YKOil 10
PDO 10
DeBakey 0

Round 1 Results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40

Overall Standings after 2 of 4 rounds:
JambonDan 80+50=130
LittleFury 100+20=120
PunjabiOil 70+40=110
YKOil 90+10=100
doritogrande 70+30=100
MikeP 40+50=90
PDO 80+10=90
Mr DeBakey 80+0=80
Jonathan 60+20=80
Paulus 50+30=80
jon 70+0=70
Oilman 50+0=50
Jon G 20

Worst. Deadline Deal. EVAAARRRR.

Bob Gainey has done a lot of things well. He selected Carey Price over Gilbert Brule in 2005, a move widely criticized at that time. He also managed to pick up Guillaume Latendresse in the 2nd round that year. Selecting Ryan McDonagh, despite the pressure to pick up local boy select Angelo Esposito seems to have turned out well, at least in early stages. The move to let Souray walk, while signing Hamerlik seems to have paid dividends one year later. He did a good job assembling good young talent, enough so to lead the Habs to a Conference title in 2007-2008.

But Bob Gainey may have singlehandedly killed the Montreal Canadiens Stanley Cup push.

By trading the Habs number one goaltender, Cristobal Huet, at the trade deadline for a mere 2009 second round draft pick.

Ugly, ugly, ugly!

The deal has all the writings of a seller, not a buyer. I told my good friend then, a die-hard Habs fan, that I didn't like this deal. I don't like it now either.

One can already legitimately argue the Habs should have been more aggressive in the Marian Hossa sweepstakes, who went for 2 depth players, 1 bottom four first round draft pick, and a sinking prospect. However, other sides can legitimately counter this opinion.

I don't believe anyone can however, defend the Huet deal.

He was the Habs number one goalie, who played 39 games, posting a very respectable .916 SV%. In Washington, he posted a remarkable .936 SV% in 13 regular season games, and an .909 SV% in 7 playoff games.

EVEN if the Habs wished to throw a 20 year old Carey Price to the wolves, it would have made sense to keep the insurance policy intact.

They didn't. Jaroslav Halak is NOT a respectable insurance policy.

And now, the Habs are swimming in their own tears.

It didn't have to turn out this way.

Bob Gainey should legitimately feel the heat this summer.

"You know what it takes to sell real estate?"

Above: Montreal Canadiens coach Guy Carbonneau.

Facing the possibility of going down 3-1 to the Flyers tonight, Carbonneau is replacing 20 year-old wunderkind Carey Price between the pipes with backup Jaroslav Halak. This takes balls. With the deadline day deal of veteran Christobal Huet, Price was officially anointed the Habs' goalie of today. His play in helping the Canadiens to a first place finish in the East seemed to justify that decision, but Price has been erratic in the post season and downright gawdawful in two straight losses to the Flyers. Halak has played all of 6 games with the big club this year and has all of 19 minutes of playoff experience.

I like these types of high risk/high reward moves. It's not like the playoffs give struggling players (especially starting goaltenders) a lot of chances to play through a funk. And if the Habs continue to outshoot and outchance the Flyers the way they have in the last two games, then Halak will just have to be good enough.

Go Habs.

Really? No, REALLY?

Ugly.

Well, he is, and there, I said it.

What else is he though? For some, unfathomable reason, Dion Phaneuf is a Norris candidate. Why? Well, honestly, I don't know. I cannot find a single reason why he should be a Norris candidate, besides the fact that he was on the ice a lot, has a good slapshot, and is a physical hockey player.

That's it. Problem is, the all the tools in the world don't make you a Norris defenseman if you don't have the toolbox, and as was said in a Calgary Sun article, and voted on by NHL players, Dion Phaneuf is one of the most over-rated players in the NHL.

But, in fairness, lets try to first make a list of things we would expect from a Norris caliber defenseman. We would reasonably expect that he can play at both ends of the ice, and in all situations, and excel. That means EV, PK and PP. We expect that he would constantly play the other teams best players, especially at home, and out-play them. We expect he would be called "complete" and make the other players around him better, instead of victimized.

Does all of this seem reasonable so far? As far as I can tell, this is what I would expect of a Norris defenseman. A Lidstrom, Pronger, Timonen, Gonchar, etc.

Lets take a look at Phaneuf now, shall we?

5v5.

The Flames played 5 home games against San Jose, 4 against Colorado, 4 against Minnesota, 2 against Detroit, 2 against Anaheim, 2 against Dallas, and 2 against Nashville. The highest scoring player on each of these teams was: Joe Thornton, Paul Stastny, Marian Gaborik, Pavel Datsyuk, Ryan Getzlaf, Mike Ribeiro and JP Dumont.

In these 21 games*, Dion Phaneuf played a whopping 359.1 minutes, equal to 17.1 ES minutes a game. Yet, against the top scorers on each team, he played a combined, get ready for this, all of 115.1. That's not even 1/3 of his ice time. This was at home. With Keenan having last change.

Worse yet? How did he fair against these players?

+3/-9.

Lit up. Like a Christmas tree.

But hey, he had that dominating physical play right? That makes up for it? Well, sure, if you want to consider the fact that he lead the league in minor penalties with 60, and the Flames were more likely to go to the PK than the PP with Phaneuf on the ice. Did he put up some nice counting stats? Absolutely. But not against anyone whose name we know. And I'm pretty sure, that should be an important criteria when deciding if a guy is a top defenseman or not, should it not be?

I won't comment on his PP ability - I think he's one of the better triger men in the league.

However, his PK ability, another important facet of the game, is yet another problem for 'the Dion.' A quick look at behindthenet.ca shows he played a lot on the PK, about 2 and a half minutes a game, and was the third most often used defenseman in Calgary on the PK. So, he was second unit on the PK, and, once again, likely saw softer competition on the PK. So his PK numbers should rock, correct?

Well. Not really.

When Phaneuf was on the ice, the Flames were scored on about 7.15 times every 60 minutes. When Phaneuf was off the ice, the Flames were scored on about 6.13 times every 60 minutes.

In other words, when he killed penalties, the puck ended up in his net more often than when he rode the pine.

So... my question is, how on Earth is he a Norris Nominee? Anyone? Are the MSM writers really THIS dumb that they couldn't notice that A) he was being sheltered B) he got lit up when he wasn't sheltered and C) he can't play defense to save his life?

*During two of these games, one against Minny and one against Colorado, the offensive star was injured, so I took the second leading scorer in each case - Bouchard, and Brunette, for that specific game.

What Goes Around...Comes Around

Agent Ritch Winter was on Bob Stauffer's show today. He accused Kevin Lowe as being a hypocrite with respect to his recent comments on new Canucks GM, Mike Gillis, who allegedly "screwed" the Oilers in the Michael Nylander saga.

The reasoning? Kevin Lowe pulled a similar stunt to Bryan Murray, then GM of the Anaheim ducks. Murray, Comrie, Winter had all believed a deal was complete, before Lowe came out and asked 2.5M from Mike Comrie. I recall later that day, Lowe laughed with a smirk on his face, "Well, I've always been told if I want something...I have to ask."

Hard to disagree with Ritch Winter (profile can be seen here - thanks to DSF from HF for the link).

Vancouver, Anaheim, Buffalo, Calgary, Ottawa. That's 17.25% of the league the Oilers may not be able to deal with as long as Kevin Lowe is the GM.

Will Lowe stop the bleeding? Does Winter have a legitimate point?

Dan Blackburn

The Montreal, Quebec native was drafted 10th overall back in 2001. Voted as the CHL's top goaltender for the 2000-2001 season.

As an 18 year old, he was pressed into action due to injuries, and managed to stay on his two feet, playing 31 games and posting a .898 SV%.

Did he have a strong future ahead of him?

There are reasons to believe he would have, but unfortunately, we'll never know.

That is because he suffered a significant left shoulder injury during a weight training session. He pressed a try-out with the Victoria Salmon Kings of the ECHL - playing with two blockers instead of the conventional glove and blocker combo.

Mirtle interviewed Dan Blackburn during this stint. Dan was eager to see how it played out.

Unfortunately, he lasted only 12 games.

Where is this once promising man, now 24, today?

His current life includes a home in Dallas, a job in hockey - he's manager of business development for Goaltender Development Institute (GDIhockey.com) - and, somehow, no sorrow in his heart.

"No, it's not bittersweet," Blackburn says. "You know what? I don't really miss it anymore - it's been such a long time. It was a chapter of my life and I'm on to the next. I'm happy for all the guys that do well. It's good to see (Leclaire) having a successful year."

"I don't have any regrets at all about what transpired or the way things happened for me," says Blackburn, who played two full seasons - 2001-02, 2002-03 - for the Blueshirts. "I really enjoy what I do now in the business world."

"From my point of view, I was really fortunate, even though I was only there for a couple of years.

"It really set up the rest of my life for all the things that I want to do, from there on out."

Hurtling himself into life after hockey - buoyed by a reported $6-million insurance payout - Blackburn enrolled at Arizona State University.

He's in good shape. In good health.

And happy.

What else can you ask for?

Cheat Sheet

*Click on font to read cheat sheet material*

This is the front page of my "Cheat sheet" for a University Finance class. The flip side of the page was equally busy, with numerous examples. You have to take advantage of every opportunity you are provided.

That being said, I never understood and agreed with the logic of cheat sheet in exams - especially when you put examples that are nearly identical to the questions being asked on exams.

Of course you still have to know your material - and all members of the class are given the same opportunity to write in extremely small font - but it's also an item that provides the less prepared a marginal advantage over those who are more prepared.

And whatever happened to the conventional formula sheet? All Finance classes and nowadays, even some accounting classes, allow one the opportunity of double sided cheat sheets - is this a new trend?

Any 'old-timers' want to shed some light?

In other news, I came across this great site

http://www.sportscliche.com/

Playoff Predictions - Round 2

Anyone is welcome, whether they participated in the 1st round or not.

10 points for correct team. 20 points for correct team and number of games. 0 points for correct number of games, but wrong team.

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS - ROUND #2

My Picks (in bold):

SERIES A Montreal vs. Philadelphia - 6 games

SERIES B Pittsburgh vs. New York Rangers - 6 games.

SERIES C Detroit vs. Colorado - 6 games

SERIES D San Jose vs. Dallas - 6 games


EDIT: Changed my pick to Pittsburgh

Round 1 results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40