Thursday, September 25, 2008

15 down



The Oilers announced another round of cuts today, sending 15 hopefuls packing

Assigned to Springfield were:

Goaltenders (1): Andrew Perugini

Defence (5): Sebastien Bisaillon, Josef Hrabal, Jake Taylor, Cody Wild, Bryan Young

Forwards (8): Hans Benson (RW), Justin Chwedoruk (RW), Garet Hunt (LW), Bryan Lerg (LW), Colin McDonald (RW), Sean McMorrow (RW), Ryan O’Marra (RW), Geoff Paukovich (LW)

Right winger Jordan Eberle, the Oilers’ first round selection in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, was returned to the Regina Pats of the Western Hockey League.

Not many surprises there. O'Marra's looking like a bust. McDonald was my underdog favourite this camp. I hope Paukovich refrains from drilling his cab driver with a shot from behind on his way to YEG.

This blog post is presented in part by LolCats.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Stream of Consciousness.....

First Period Stream of Consciousness:

20:00 Game is starting off a little scrambly here. Hodgson wins a draw and has a pass picked off, and from there about 4 or 5 are picked off as the Oilers try to gain the zone.

19:15 Canucks are applying a little bit of pressure now, but Roloson looks sharp as he snags a puck out of the air on a long point shot. I hate John Garret... annoying voice and he brings nothing to the table.

18:45 The biggest problem with the feed for me is it's nearly impossible to make out a lot of the numbers... so I can't put this on mute as badly as I want to. Sorry for any mistakes on names...

18:00 McDonald and Brule work very well together to work a cycle together... nice shot from Grebeshkov and McDonald and Brule both crash the net. Big save by Luongo on McDonald, but a good start for two guys who have to impress.

17:30 It's not too often I haven't heard of an Oiler prospect... but I have no idea who Jake Taylor is. He just broke up a cycle down low though.

17:00 Truhkno just got cranked, and then Grebs did... excellent hustle by both of them to make plays though, and they both bounce up. Garret will make it sound like the hit is the big deal, and it's nice for the Nucks to send a message, but the bigger point is that the Oilers got the puck and kept the play alive. Nilsson just set up Cogs on a good chance as well... sublime pass.

16:30 It took Roloson only 3:30 to get pissy in net. Nice. Garret talking about random bullshit... goalies records? Christ.

15:45 And here comes the PP after Burrows gets his stick into Grebs hands. I hate this faceoff rule... just absolutely retarded. Oilers start with Grebs, Gilbert, the kids and Truhkno. I'm really liking the way that Nilsson is seeing the ice early here... he's hitting passing lanes quickly. He'll have a helper tonight. This PP is moving the puck MUCH better than we did last night... hopefully the team takes note that we can't just rely on Souray's bomb, and instead need to use the bomb as a reason to be able to move the puck around a little more.

14:19 ... Brodziak with a weak shot on net and it ends up in the net. Nice start for Jesus Luongo. Potulny may have got a piece of that.... love that he crashed the net there. He's another guy in the mix for that 12th forward spot. Looking at that I'm pretty sure Potulny got it. Good for him. Even if he doesn't get it, it doesn't happen if he doesn't haul ass to the net.

14:00 Does it ever show how young this team is when Brodziak has an A? We left just about everyone back in Edmonton....

13:44 Roloson makes a great stop in tight on Demitra. He looks sharp.

12:37 ... Stortini killing a penalty? And he smokes someone in the defensive zone while on the kill? Awesome for all the wrong reasons. Gotta love the preseason.

12:00 I've never been much of a fan of McDonald, but I like what he's done so far. He's cycling the puck and moving it North in a hurry. These are the types of things MacT is all over, and rightfully so. He's also getting the puck on net whenever he has a chance.... little things like this lead to winning a job instead of riding a bus in the AHL.

11:20 ... #21? Looked like he just had a chance to plaster someone and let up. I'll check on the number in a minute, but you have to make that hit, especially in a preseason game. .. Looks like it was Potulny. Loved his hustle to the net, and he doesn't have to kill the guy there, but unless you're Ales Hemsky you have to throw the body and seperate him from the puck.

11:00 And here we go. Huxley drops 'em with Brown and they're hugging it out. Huxley is Stortini 2.0 apparently.

9:30 Roy takes a penalty because Bernier is a shit and going after Cogliano. Zero issue with that, and it should've been even ups.

9:00 MacT is playing pretty much everyone on the PK early... this is a big tell. You have to be smart and positionally sound to play on the PK. During the regular season, it's a compliment to your game, but during the preseason it's a test. I like it. And as I type this out Roloson makes the world a better place and punches a Canuck in the face. He's having a solid game, I like when he has some fire in him like this because he tends to play better and ends up pissing off the other team and gets them off of their game.

7:15 Cowan last night... Hordichuk tonight? Brutal. Taylor made the right play, Cogliano lost his man for a second (Burrows?) allowing him to make a pass, but given it was on a PK and he didn't want to over commit this is forgivable... and then Young just made a terrible play in front of the net on Hordichuk. Not Roloson's fault... Young has to be better than that.

6:15 Nilsson is buzzing, but his linemates just seem to be invisible thus far... I'm half expecting the blender to be whipped out here. The Oilers are in a funk and a lot of these guys have played together in Springfield so they have experience and a lot of options..... I haven't heard Eberle's name once yet?

5:00 And there he is with a weak shot from a Brodziak pass. Tough not being able to see the numbers.

4:33 Nilsson with another solid pass to set up Cogliano for a scoring chance.....

Luongo doing what he does best - KEEPING IT ONE ONE. Sorry, but that is absolute literary gold. I don't think it was intentional at all, but the way that was implied was just plain awesome.

4:20 ... poor point shot by Taylor. Ripped it into the shinpads when he could've thrown it into the corner where we had 2 guys.

3:20 There's some maturity from Stortini. He blows up a Canuck and draws a penalty and then gets into a fight. The fight itself has been pretty sad... Stort's got the helmet off, and I guess the decision goes to the Canuck, but that's what Stortini needs to do to be effective.

3:00 This game is getting chippy. Can feel the hate. I like it.

2:00 ... great play by Brodziak to split the D and get a good shot on Luongo while drawing the penalty. He's having a heckuva game.

1:37 We're still relying on the point shot too much. We have a lot of skill between the forwards, lets let them make some plays, we don't need to always rely on a rebound or a screen for a PP goal.

1:00 Truhkno makes a nice move to get a shooting lane, but the puck takes a bad bounce on the rebound and gets cleared by Vancouver. Shame.

:12 Truhkno just made another nice play, setting up Potulny in front of the net all alone.

My favourite part of the period has to go to Garret though.... "How many talented guys can you fit into a lineup?" You know you've been a Canucks fan for too long when...

Second Period:

19:55 Nilsson sets up Cogliano again. He is just absolutely flying out there. Loving it. Between him and Brodziak the Oilers future is shining bright tonight. Nilsson just took a slash now and looks hurt... can I jinx it or what? Hope to see him back on the ice soon...

19:00 Bad break for Brule on a high stick penalty... Roloson bails him out on a Hodgson attempt.

17:10 Gilbert makes a bad pinch... Nilsson gets caught on a 1 on 1 and is burned, and Young is left doing nothing again in no mans land. 2-1 Canucks. The good news of all this is Nilsson must be okay if they sent him right back out for a PK.

16:00 Looks like someone talked to Potulny, as he just did exactly what he should've done in the first... McDonald is driving possession again and throwing everything at the net, but that all started because Potulny separated Brown from the puck. Brule showed some fire there... you can tell guys are doing their best to get noticed.

14:30 Another nice cycle by the kid/Truhkno line. He's passed Schremp tonight by my estimation.

12:45 Brule just came back to break up a scramble... and again his line (Mcdonald/Potulny) move the puck North in a hurry. These guys are gaining all kinds of points for their play tonight.

12:12 Eberle shows up for the first time all game with a couple of nice chances... I like his ability to find the soft ice and get his shot off quickly. The kid has a long way to go, not all 18 year olds are Sam Gagner, but he's a beaut.

11:00 Truhkno's compete is through the roof. He just won a battle to get the puck to Nilsson again... who again set up Cogliano. Absolutely loving his game, he looks like he is here to win a job.

9:52 this is the difference between Nilsson this year and last year. He just turned the puck over on the halfboards fairly weakly.. but then he takes off and forces back pressure to get a turnover.

9:15 Brule having an ice shift here... cycling well and plastered two Canucks. He's a little ball of hate.

7:25 Strudwick makes a nice play to stop one of the Van kids on a rush, moves the puck forward and Roy gets a nice chance. Good play all around.

6:15 Again the Brule line is driving possession... I'm not paying attention to who they're playing, but this line has moved the puck north all night. Just excellent work by a trio of guys trying to crack an NHL roster.

4:30 And you know what? McDonald just rang one off the bar as the Brule line was ONCE AGAIN driving possession. These three along with Truhkno are making life for Rob Schremp and Marc Pouliot a lot more difficult.

4:10 Roloson is definitely having a solid game... big save on Grabner in tight on a 2 on 1.

3:40 I think Cogs is getting a bit frustrated... he had Nilsson open at the blueline and instead tried to dispy doodle. Sign of a young player, but not one we can afford too often given just how many of them we have.

3:05 Gilbert just about had a horrendous turnover, but he saved it at the last second... not loving his game thus far. Been pretty happy with Grebeshkov though, especially on the PP.

2:50 Round two.. Huxley and Brown. There are punches this time! Huxley is giving it to Brown... got him with a few good shots early and landed a few glancing shots at the end.

2:40 This game just can't end fast enough for Young. Victimized on two goals and now he takes a penalty....

1:30 Nilsson and Cogs on the PK again, and almost pull it off.... pass was just a little too far ahead by Cogs or Nilsson is going roof daddy there all day long.

0:10 Brodziak just led a nice rush... his hand eye looks fantastic.

Third Period:

19:45 Again the Oilers are showing nice puck movement on the PP... I really hope that this becomes a trend on all of our PP's, as we'll be a much more dangerous team on the PP if we're moving it around before we hit Souray, at the very least.

18:31 5 on 3... lets see what they do. Please something other than a point shot! 20 seconds to go and Eberle is on the ice and coughs it up at the blueline. Grebeshkov with a horrendous pass to Gilbert as the Canuck comes out of the box to pick it off... but Roli has to bang his stick sooner there. Just some preseason rust that guys like Grebeshkov can afford to have... if it's still there in G7 and G8 when they're 4 or 5 games in, we have a problem, but in G2 when they're 1 in I'm not gonna sweat it...

17:20 Roloson just ROBBED the Canucks on a 2 on 0.... and now the Oilers have two penalties? Never mind, Roli made the save and then gave Hansen a shot as Hansen crashed into him... fine by me. Roli isn't a happy man, and it looks like he means business as he's been very, very, good tonight.

16:50 ... is Truhkno playing the point? I don't think he is, but he sure seems to be there on the PP a lot. I'm pretty sure Grebs/Gilbert are both out there. Wish I had this on a TV or was there so I could figure this out... the miniature screen is killing me.

15:50 Canuck just got blown up. No idea who by though.... I'm cursing this feed as much as I'm loving it. The Canucks (crappy) broadcasters aren't helping here as they're busy talking about all kinds of useless crap like this day in Canucks history (1980? 1994? Was there anything else? What kind of franchise would actually want to talk about their history when they've never won... ANYTHING!? Christ....)

14:00 Hordichuk just made Grebeshkov look bad.... man a lot of our "vets" are rusty. The important thing with those guys though is to see where they're at for games 7 and 8....

13:30 Truhkno is just forechecking so well tonight. Absolutely falling in love with his game.... he forced a turnover and Nilsson had another solid opportunity.

12:30 Another giveaway by an Oilers D... not sure who it was, couldn't make out the number for my life of me... may have been #43.... Strudwick? If it wasn't him it was Roy. I know you can never have enough defensemen, but I don't think it's teh end of the world if we risk one of these guys on waivers come opening night.....

11:00 Another chance for Brodziak. Guy is just doing everything right. Can't wait to see where he ends up lining up in the roster....

10:30 Truhkno just made ANOTHER play... almost sprung himself on a breakaway by breaking up a pass back to the point. And then he makes another nice play to get Cogliano the puck. Robbie Schremp, meet your worst nightmare; Truhkno is here, and here's to play so far.

9:15 Beer Break.... new rule that tehy don't go to commercial for an icing? I like that. A lot. Bernier being a knob? Not so much.

7:50 As McDonald moves the puck North for the millionth time tonight, the Oilers draw a PP... they have to make this one count.

7:20 Oilers have a nice chance off the rush as Nilsson and Cogs work a nice give and go.. that line really deserves a goal. Hell - so does the Brule line.

3:40 Been a bit distracted... girlfriend got on MSN. Truhkno makes his first mistake of the night for a penalty.

3:20... nervous play by Strudwick as he tries to outright stop a shot with his stick. Haven't liked his game much tonight.

2:30 As usual with MacT teams... we just kick ass on the PK. Always a pleasure to watch his PK, nevermind once he gets his horses....

1:40 Brodziak just made an UNREAL play on the PK to deflect a pass for a one-timer to Salo on the PK. One hand on his stick and he flings it up to deflect the saucer pass. Just a fantastic play to spring a 2 on 2 out of hte zone and get a change.

Game over. Nucks win 2-1.

Game thoughts are pretty simple....

Brodziak, Truhkno and Nilsson were the three best Oilers. Roloson played well, as did Cogliano. Grebeshkov played decently, I liked a lot of what Potulny and McDonald did, and the rest of the D left a lot to be desired... didn't notice a whole lot from the bottom 6, which should be expected given who was there. Hopefully some cuts some quickly so we can start tuning up for the games that matter.

Outside of that:

Is Robbie Schremp feeling the weight of the world on his shoulders or what?

and...

I thought the Canucks were going to be a "fun" team to watch this season? Ha...

Exhibition Game 1: Canucks 4 Oilers 3 (SO)


Above: Memory, all alone in the moonlight...


Some quick niblets from last night's first exhibition game:

Sheldon Souray looked really good. I still expect him to get beat wide at least twice a game, but he was physical and quicker than I remember. Decent point shot, too.

The Big Visnovsky had some ups and downs, strikes and gutters. He can make things happen, but I wonder about his two way play.

Laddy Smid looked bigger and more poised. Skated out of the zone well and made a few good outlet passes. Might be ready to take a step forward.

Penner: didn't notice him much after the first frame (have to check his TOI), but he seems to be gelling nicely with San Fernando and Moreau.

Cole showed great hands on the 2-1 goal, has speed to burn, but seemed a beat out of synch with Horcoff and Hemsky, both of whom seemed a touch off (I had no idea Horcoff had two points until I read the summary this morning). Don't think there's much else that needs to be said about him.

Ganger: Better than Viagra.

Schremp: Hustled and made some crisp passes, but he's running up hill. It's time to shit or get off the pot for Sugartits. I don't think he makes it.

Garon: Up to his old Gumby ways. I'm not worried about goaltending.

Didn't like the deja vu of losing a lead in the last few minutes of the third and I am sick of shootouts. The rubber match is tonight on Sportsnet Pacific.

Monday, September 22, 2008

The Method to the Madness.....

Erik Cole is a beauty hockey player. Just is. He's one of those guys that gets it. He drives to the net with wreckless abandon. He gets the puck moving north-south in a hurry. He can finish, both with the puck and with his shoulder. He's a leader in the room and a leader on the ice. Basically...

He's Jarome Iginla-lite.

Now, while I'm not going to focus on the long-term effects or anything like that, it appears that MacT has figured out two very important things early on at this camp, and it's in a direction that I'm not sure anyone saw him taking. He's figured out how to run one of the best power lines in the league with Cole - Horcoff - Hemsky while still having a a third line that can pick up the rest of the slack.

The answer to the question, of course, was the hero from the '06 run. San Fernando. Early at camp he's been moved to center between Moreau and Penner on a line that very few would've thought of... and early returns are that it's working out well. This isn't the first time MacT has tried to move someone to C - I'm sure we all remember the Ryan Smyth "#1 C" experiment a few years ago, but this is a move that looks brilliant early on. Pisani is a guy who can move the puck North-South in a hurry while Penner and Moreau are both strong along the boards... while I don't want Penner (or Moreau, for that matter) running around in our own zone against Iginla or the Sedin's.... the fact is Pisani is a guy who'll break the cycle and get the puck out... and Penner and Moreau are both guys who can muck the game down low and kill the time.

Will it last? Tough to say, shit happens, guys get injured, guys like Brodziak and Pouliot will have to step it up as time goes on, etc. However, for now, I am damn excited by the prospects of a top 9 that starts with the power line, moves to this mucking line and finishes off with some razzle and dazzle from the kids.

The first preseason game is tonight boys.

Keep your head up and buckle up, it's gonna be a fun Winter.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

That's what I call marketing

As exciting as it is to talk about the Oilers' rookie camp (read: not exciting at all), here's something better: scantily clad dames.



That's the Dallas Stars "Ice Girls" frolicking about in bikinis and such. They are waiting for your call right now: pick up the phone!

Real training camp countdown: T-minus 32 hours.

(glove tap Four Habs Fans)

Monday, September 15, 2008

Car crash



Hey, anyone read any Oilers blogs lately? Hoo boy. What seems to have started out as a debate over the value of some of the new statistics the Oilogosphere has produced (see: here, here, here, and here) has degenerated into a veritable shit fight at the monkey house. Check out some of the comment threads here, here and here, and try to remember that some of these cats are the same people who deride the folks at HF Oilers for being immature drooling retards, which just goes to show that age and education is no defense against being a total fucking asshole.

Now, I'm no stranger to online pissing contests, but as someone with no dog in this fight beyond my interest in the fortunes of the mighty Oil, I find the whole thing ridiculous even by the gutter standards of internet discourse. So forgive the misuse of this space, and though I know no one has asked and no such advice will be heeded, I thought I'd get this off my chest.

Ain't nobody getting paid for this. For most everyone who writes, reads or comments on the Oil blogs, this is a hobby. The differences seem to be between those for whom following the Oilers is a way to while away the winter hours and an excuse to knock back a few beers and those who, like furries and diaper fetishists, seem to live and die by it. The stats business is a good example. I'm certainly sympathetic to the aims of those who want to push things forward in terms of how the game is analyzed and understood so that shit like "Joffery Lupul is a one-shot scorer" won't be allowed to stand, but a little perspective is needed. I'm sure the stats-heads like to think they are doing the game a service, but I have to wonder what the real world application for some of this stuff is. At best, it's an academic exercise, which is in and of itself worthwhile, but not something to get one's tits in a twist over. A good rule of thumb is: if something someone has written on the internet prompts you to utter a threat against them or their family, you're in too deep. And you probably need some therapy.

Personally, I can take or leave the stats stuff. It's great to have some quantifiable data in hand for winning arguments on the internet, but what matters most is the community, the social aspect, the fact that people from Edmonton to Toronto to Vladivostok and all points in between can be united by their shared love of the game and a team: The Passion That Unites Us All, to borrow a slogan from some minor-league softball team. It's not an exclusive club and it's nobody's personal domain. It's funny as hell to see some of the old-timers complain about the growth of the 'sphere in terms that sound strikingly similar to those used by the gatekeepers in the mainstream media to deride this whole blogging thing back when it started to take off. On the Oilogosphere, there's crap and there's quality and sometimes you have to work through a lot of the latter to get to the former, but that's the price of success. Most of the time, the quality shines through, which is why my posts get three views and Lowetide gets 10 jillion.

The real point here is that we're still a few days shy of training camp in what rightly or wrongly is one of the most anticipated seasons in recent memory. As such, it'll be nice to read and talk about actual hockey again and fuck the rest.

Monday, September 08, 2008

Erik Cole


"Bank Shot" did some research, and raised a good point over at Lowetide's (link to the right). How much was the "Southeast" division a factor in Erik Cole's overall performance?

A LOT APPARENTLY

Erik Cole posted 24 points in 28 games against Southeast division foes; 27 point in 45 games against all other NHL teams.

It's been well documented goaltending and defense was a considerable issue in the SE division last season.

Erik Cole did some other things quite well; he was physical, drew penalties (tied for 2nd most in the league), and shot the puck 216 times, which would have lead the Oilers last season (Leader: Dustin Penner, 201 SOG).

On the contrary, Cole’s numbers have fallen since 2005-2006 season; since the lockout, he has missed 20, 11, and 9 games respectively since the lockout. He turns 30 in November.

I don't think there is doubt that Erik Cole will help this team win hockey games. At the same time, Erik Cole may not provide full value in his next contract. I acknowledge it's prudent for General Manager, sorry, President of Hockey Operations, Kevin Lowe, to play out the season before deciding whether or not to bring Katz suitcases to the negotiation table.

However, this begs answers to the following questions: Why did Kevin Lowe pursue a player who he has doubts about, and is one year away from unrestricted free agency? Especially given the fact Joni Pitkanen kept his head above water with a EV +/- rating of zero playing difficult opposition. Was Erik Cole the best value in the trade market? Was it the good trade?

David Caruso is investigating.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Fightin' words



Over at OilersNation, Robin Brownlee asks a few questions about the Oilers’ quest for an enforcer.
  • Is willing but much-maligned Zack Stortini enough of a deterrent to prevent ruffians from taking liberties with Hemsky, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano and Robert Nilsson if he can get some back-up from newly acquired Jason Strudwick or veterans Steve Staios and Ethan Moreau?
  • Would a tag-team of Stortini, who dropped the gloves 23 times last season, and J.F. Jacques do the trick if Jacques can overcome wrist and back injuries and finally deliver the physical and fistic contributions expected of him?
  • Is there an NHL-calibre enforcer in the bent-nosed bunch of minor-leaguers the Oilers have invited to camp who’d be ready and willing to throw down for 500-large on 30 or 40 nights this season?
Fortunately, I have the answers to all of the above. Actually it’s really a single, all-purpose answer:

Who gives a shit?

To my mind, there’s no better example to be found of the parting of ways between conventional wisdom and reality that exists in sports than the value placed on enforcers in the NHL. Having a tough guy to protect teammates and settle scores is regarded as essential by everyone from armchair GMs up to, well, actual GMs (as evidenced by the Oilers’ pursuit of fan favourite and league heavyweight champ Georges Laraque). The idea, sayeth the gospel, is that tough guys not only punish evildoers for their transgressions, but also act to deter the cheap shot artists of the league from taking liberties with star players. If the Oilers had a tough guy, the reasoning goes, Ales Hemsky would never again have to worry about Robyn Regher using Hemsky’s face to apply Turtle Wax to the dasher boards at the end of the rink.

Advocates of the nuclear deterrent theory point to the fact that, since Laraque’s departure, the Oilers have been racked by injuries to key players (Moreau, Souray, Horcoff and Hemsky all missed time last year and, at one point late in the season, the entire 2007 team was in ICU at the U of A hospital). Problem is, correlation is not causation. Dig a little deeper, and you’ll see how the assertion that tough guys prevent injuries is actually baseless.

Below is a (small, shitty)table that compares the official man games lost to injury (MGL) totals (via James Mirtle) with HockeyFights.com’s rankings of total fighting majors by team (FM). For ease of comparison, I’ve clustered the top, middle and bottom thirds of the man games lost together to see how they correlated with fighting majors.



Squint and you can see that four teams in the top 10 in FM were in the bottom of the pile in MGL. But four other leading FM teams were among the league leaders in MGL, with the pugilistic Canucks just missing the cut in that regard. Overall, in this sample, there doesn’t seem to be much of a correlation between how often a team fights and the number of severe injuries they incur.

Granted, this is a simplistic analysis using a rather small sample size and missing out on a helluva lot of variables. But let’s appeal to common sense here: of the myriad major Oilers’ injuries over the past couple of years, how could reasonably have been prevented or deterred by an enforcer? I can think of two: Moreau fucking up his shoulder trying to slap Danny Markov in ‘06 and Souray blowing out his pitching arm in a tilt against the Canucks' Byron Ritchie last year. Theoretically, an enforcer would have prevented these two injuries by taking the burden of scrapping off Moreau and Souray’s shoulders (get it? get it?). But with 33 and 29 career NHL fights respectively, neither Souray nor Moreau are, for lack of a better term, pussies. Both are gritty players who are regarded as leaders on the ice: probably not the kind of guys who will outsource their dirty work on the off chance of a freak (or, in Souray’s case, entirely predictable) injury. Which brings me to another point: outside of the extremely rare one-sided beating or any fight in which Todd Fedoruk is a combatant, most hockey fights end with no harm done to either pugilist. Given the relatively low level of risk involved, it’s hard to see how fighting is any kind of deterrent, particularly for those players whose job description includes regular blows to the head followed five minute stays in the box.

This is nicely illustrated by the photo above. That’s Derek Boogaard about to drop some sweet science on Le GG himself. The same Derek Boogaard who, since rampaging through the Oilers roster a couple of seasons back, has had Oiler fans waking up in a cold sweat whenever a game with Minnesota draws nigh. The Boogeyman is 6’7” and 271 lbs. His career fight card reads like a who’s who of NHL enforcers, with Laraque, Shelley, Godard, Parros and Brashear all making appearances. Clearly, having an enforcer of your own is not going to deter a guy like that because fighting the other team’s enforcer is Boogaard’s entire raison d’etre. It’d take an I.E.D. to stop that motherfucker. That said, Boogaard’s status as both heavyweight and wrecking ball make him an aberration. What about cheap shot artists like the aforementioned Robyn Regehr: surely he would pass up the chance to cripple Sam Ganger if he knew the Oilers had a true tough guy giving the stinkeye from the end of the bench, right?

Well, no. Just as heavyweights tend to fight other heavyweights, punks like Regehr tend not to fight at all (RR had three fights last year against titans like Jason chimera and Dustin Penner). They hit and run. If they do fight, it’s with players in their weightclass. If outmatched, they hang on, or turtle: no harm done. And certainly no compelling reason to pass up the chance to murder another team’s star player.

To sum up so far:

  • The correlation between an enforcer and team injuries is weak at best, non-existent at worst
  • Guys who are paid, in whole or in part, to fight aren’t going to change their style of play because of the possibility of getting into a fight.
  • Guys who are paid to take liberties with others won’t fight an enforcer, thus enforcers carry no value as a deterrent.

So what’s left? Why are guys like Ales Hemsky and Kevin Prendergast, fellas whose knowledge of the game (hopefully) greatly eclipses my own, still grumbling about the need for an enforcer? The only answer that makes any sense is that the importance of an tough guy has become part of the culture of the game, a treasured myth that, while completely lacking in any supporting evidence, is nonetheless repeated, circulated and passed on through the generations as cant (see also: Europeans are pansies, “big goals”). These are things we believe to be true, though all the evidence before our eyes tells us otherwise: enforcers are important. Tough guys prevent injuries. They help teams win.

As “just-so” stories go, that’s all well and good. But when a team like the Oilers with literally more NHL-ready prospects than they know what to do withstarts talking about giving up a roster spot and cap space to some meathead whose job is to act as the human equivalent to those obnoxious Jumbotron exhortations (“Make some NOOOOOOISE!!!), well, it perturbs me.

I’ll close this off with a relevant quote from Mirtle, who did his own analysis of NHL enforcers last year:
At best, they're not a liability. At worst, they cripple their team, allowing somewhere in the neighbourhood of two goals per 60 minutes more than the rest of their team while generating almost zero offence or shots on goal.

If I'm a coach or GM, isn't there a better option at the bottom of the roster?

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

An Uneventful August

August was a slow month at PunjabiOil & Company. A mere 6 entries (0.20 Posts/30). Sometimes, there just isn't any value added discussion to be brought forward. Unless, of course, you are Lowetide - the Wayne Gretzky of the Oilogosphere.

Hopefully, September will change. I will be limited in number of posts for the next few months, but I'm sure you will see great 'value-added' discussion from blog co-owners in PDO, LittleFury, and prospect AsiaOil.

With that said, I leave you with this:

Monday, August 18, 2008

The Ranger....

... has died.

He spent his whole life drinking ice cold beer from the glaciers, hanging out with gorgeous women and fighting off the Sasquatch.

May he rest in peace, because today is a sad, sad day.


Thursday, August 14, 2008

My heart will go on

This dawn found me in a sentimental mood, so I spent some time going through the dusty archives of the Battle of Alberta and Covered in Oil from a time back when the Oilogosphere was young, San Fernando strode the world like a pre-colitis colossus, the acronym CFP stood for little more than Certified Financial Planner and the Calgary Flames were bowing out in the first round (plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose).

Those were heady times. Hockey enjoyment was, for me, at an all time high. The world was our oyster. Then it all came crashing down. The ‘06 summer exodus, the Pronger-for-magic-beans trade, the Smyth trade, the Dive for Five, and two straight seasons out of the playoffs all combined to kick the shit out of this Oilers fan. I’d love to share the optimistic outlook for '08-'09 of my blogging compatriots, but it’s tough: I’m pretty much a beaten dog at this point, cringing every time Kevin Lowe raises his hand.

The Oilers head into the new season (now an agonizing two months away) with arguably fewer question marks than anytime since the lockout. But for me, the big question mark this season is: can I learn to love again?



Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Do ya think I'm Stolli?



Ex-Oiler Stoll, Ex Mrs Rod Stewart engaged.

Clearly, Ms. Hunter was not put off by her hubby-to-be's whopping three ES goals and -23 rating last season.

Equally apparent is the fact that we're still a long way from hockey season.

Thursday, August 07, 2008

City of Edmonton accused for Hiding facts RE: Arena review

STORY

"They're going to spin it in the best light possible," said University of Alberta sports economist Brad Humphreys.

"It's sort of as a piece of propaganda, I think. That's the way to think about it.

"It's not the whole truth. There is useful information in there, but there's also information that should be out there that's omitted — just like any other propaganda piece that you might expect out of people that are seeking taxpayer dollars that is primarily going to be used by private enterprise."

ANOTHER STORY

Andy Grabia does a good job covering this on his site.

Enjoy the readings.

Monday, August 04, 2008

Blue Skying.... Reasonably?

This is Jessica Biel. She isn't Scarlette Jo, Jessica Alba or Jennifer Aniston. She isn't even blonde. She's not an A-list celebrity. However, she's still smoking hot, gorgeous and rich. Any guy would kill to take her home, but no one would confuse her with Scarlette Jo. It's the end of the long weekend for most, but mine is just beginning, as I had today off and have the next two days off as well. Drunken debauchery will certainly take place at some point over this time, but for now, I'm just thinking about the Oilers and blue skying about next season. I'm making sure that we're not bringing home Scarlette Jo, but I can't help but think we have a shot at Jessica Biel, especially if we buy her a few glasses of an expensive wine she's never heard of.


I'll start off with some boxcar numbers. The first dead giveaway that I'm blueskying is that I'm assuming we have no injuries, no benchings, and no suspensions. However, as LT was criticized for averaging the last 3 seasons for each player, I'll just assume that they're all in the best shape of their lives and don't suffer any bad luck what so ever this season.

Last Name, Goals-Points

Cole (42-80) - Horcoff (30-82) - Hemsky (30-94)
Nilsson (24-50) - Gagner (20-70) - Cogliano (26-50)
Penner (32-56) - Brodziak (15-40) - Pisani (21-45)
Moreau (12-25) - Pouliot (12-24) - Stortini (7-14)

Visnovsky (18-70) - Staios (7-19)
Gilbert (10-35) - Grebeshkov (5-25)
Smid (2-10) - Souray (22-38)

Garon (.910 SV%)
Roloson (.900 SV%)

Division Champs
There. Now, that team would score 335 goals. That's not happening, and everyone here knows it. What is interesting though, is that if I threw those numbers out towards anyone, the only one I may get called on is Pouliot. Anything else there isn't all that outlandish to say. My guess is the one that's furthest from the truth is Cole at 42, however I can't help but think a line with Horcoff, Hemsky and Cole on it just has too much speed and too much skill to not be dominant. Ales Hemsky is that good, and Cole and Horcoff are both excellent options for him to hit on the fly and both are willing to crash the net and score the ugly ones.

I'm of the opinion that Ales Hemsky is an elite player in this league. He is without a doubt a top 10 RW, and I think he's going to get the bounces this year, finish in the top 5 in his position for scoring, and finally be considered just as good as he is - because right now he very well could be the most underrated player in the league. Last season, after a slow start, he took off, finishing the last 60 games at a PPG pace. There was a 30 game period in there where he was dominant, followed by another 30 games where he continued to score despite playing most games with an anchor like Jarret Stoll. Desjardin's likes him, his PPP/60 numbers are disgusting, and with the edition of Visnvosky and a "healthy" Souray to his utilization, I can only imagine that it's going to improve. I expect Hemsky, along with Cole and Horcoff, to take the toughest minutes. I also expect career seasons for the trio. In a blueskying role, I hope that Cole takes to loving the atmosphere and the players here, and signs an identical extension to his last one - $12,000,000/3 years. Frontloaded, just so he gets a few more bucks from Mr. Daryl Katz.

Moving on to the kids, the most likely one for a fall back to Earth is Andrew Cogliano. His shooting % was out of this world, and many of us can still imagine several 5 star chances he had where he looked much more Todd Marchant than Butch Goring. That said, I think all of the kids are in a good position moving forward. They all have at least one aspect of the game that they absolutely excel in (Nilsson - Hands, Gagner - Vision, Cogliano - Speed), and they're around a group of veterans that will instill a work ethic into them, and hopefully keep them from getting into too much trouble. All three will force their way onto the PP at one point or another, and you have to imagine that Gagner could very well force himself onto the #1 unit if he can keep up his play from last season. Again, I can't help but continually picture a PP that involves one of Horcoff/Cole/Penner in the high slot ready to crash the net, Gagner in the corner, Hemsky on the halfboards, Souray in the Spacek spot and Visnovsky in the Pronger spot. It's just disgusting on paper, and there's no reason the PP shouldn't be top 5 in the league this season. One of the kids will most likely falter, but to pick any one of them to build upon what they did last year surely isn't out of this world insane.

Down to the 3rd line... that's where the question of just how good this team can be really needs to be answered. How will Penner react to playing with Brodziak and Pisani? What kind of shape will he show up in? Will he have been given the Clockwork Orange treatment, while being forced to get into the kind of shape that guys like Horcoff, Staios and Moreau are known and praised for? Will he have found that extra stride and that extra glare? If he does, all bets for this season are off immeadiately, because players like that come around to an organization once in a generation, and if he can be anywhere near what Bertuzzi was for the Canucks from '98-'02, we're in for one hell of a treat. That's not the only question though, what can we expect from Pisani? Can he continue to play the game despite his illness? Will he remain an outscorer, able to play against anyone and put up results? And if both of these players show up, how good does Brodziak have to be to pass as the 3rd line C? Clearly the organization loves him - he was at the Indy party and the Katz presser. If he's in shape and can find an extra gear, will he be good enough to be on the ice against Iginla? Gaborik? You have to imagine the organization believes it, and if he does he'll have a $3,000,000/2 year extension in his future.

The fourth line is also very interesting. Stortini, that beautiful man, took all kinds of strides forward next year, and sometimes he even did it without falling! He played a very simple game that allowed him to be on the ice against quality, he got under the other teams skin, and he laid a few monstrous hits along the way as well. He's never a guy you'll want to play more than 10 minutes, but he's a guy who can give you 7-9 very, very, good minutes where he leaves everything on the ice. Captain Moreau had all kinds of bad luck last season, and despite his track record I honestly do expect him to be around for most of the season. If he is around, we know he'll be a rock on the PK, we know he can play against quality players, we know he brings a physical edge to his game and we know he is absolutely fantastic in the room. Finally, we have Poo. What a terrible nick name. However, he has shown, time and time again, that he can be on the ice and have very few pucks end up in the back of his net. This is a very good thing, and something that is going to be extremely useful, as with the kid line intact, we're going to need to be able to rely on our fourth line to survive against some decent players. Hopefully they can, at least in short spurts, as they certainly all have the pedigree to.

The Oilers have the least amount of question marks coming into this season that they've had in as long as I can remember. We're not asking who the #1 C is. We're not asking where the goals will come from. We're not asking who can play defense. We're not asking who will be in net.

One thing we are asking though, is how good can Denis Grebeshkov be? Will he be the guy who showed up in the first half of the season or the second half? The guy called Garbagekov, or the guy who appeared to be a dominant force, and had many saying he was at least one of the top 3 Oillers in terms of raw talent? I'm not positive just how good he can be, but after seeing what he did for 40 straight games, who he did it with and who he did it against, I am convinced that he can be a player this season. He'll be able to play at both ends of the rink, eat 20 minutes of ice, and chip in offensively. Along with Tommy Gilbert, he is an absolutely huge part of the future of the Edmonton Oilers, and if he can show some consistency this season I have every bit of belief he'll receive a contract identical to the one that Tommy Gilbert has, and the Oilers will be much better for it moving forward.

Still though, I haven't mentioned the Oilers biggest acquisition of the Summer - Mr. Visnovsky. He's coming off of an extremely disappointing season, with only 41 points and a whopping -. However, his shooting % dropped into the toilet, and Crawford was recently on the Team suggesting that his scoring chances were nearly identical to the two previous years; he just had shit luck. If he can regain the 20 goal, 70 point prowess that he's shown the previous two years, the Oilers have added an absolute stud to their blueline. Compounding the matter is Sheldon Souray. He's a one trick pony, I don't think many will argue that... but man, it is one helluva trick. He's going to get a lot of PP time, and he should be able to score a boatload with said PP time. We also know that he's fairly good on the PK, and should help out with the physicality as well. If he can stay healthy, he certainly adds value to the team. $5,400,000 value? Not a chance, but we're a better team with him in the lineup than out of the lineup. His health is certainly a legitimate question as we enter camp...

Finally, we have Steady Steve and Laddy Smid. Steve will do what he always does... play the majority of the games, give a solid 20 minutes, help a boatload on the PK and play against quality players on the other team. Smid though, is again, a bit of a card. Will he look lost, as he has so many times over the past two years, or will he be the pitbull that seemed like he was on the verge of grasping his positioning down the stretch? Will he ever find the Tommy Albelin in him, or is he going to become a guy who was pushed too fast into this league? Time will tell, but I think as a bottom pairing defenseman, especially if he keeps on the grimace that helped him steal a job from Matt Greene, he'll be another guy who can add to the roster, and hopefully set himself up to be a future top 4 defender.

Finally, we have the two guys in net. The signing of Matty Garon was widely complimented around the Oilogosphere and HFBoards, and he lived up to it last season, posting a .913 SV% along with being absolutely dominant in the SO. You have to imagine Edmonton management would be very happy if he could simply show a repeat performance while starting 60 games instead of 47. I imagine if he does repeat a similar season, he'll get a contract very similar to the one that Dwayne Roloson inked just over 2 years ago. Speaking of Roloson, he had one hell of an up and down season last year. Going from starter, to being supplanted by Garon, to having to go back in net, and doing well, when Garon was injured late in the season and the Oilers were making a legitimate push for a playoff seed. I'd assume that if he can pull off an average SV% and be a calming factor in the room the Oilers would be very happy with that, and it would show in the standings as well.

On the whole, there's a lot to be positive about. We have a lot of guys who are just entering the prime of their careers, and we have a few guys around to do the real heavy lifting and ensure the kids have good role models as they move forward in their hockey careers. We're not a team built to win the cup today, but we very well could be a team thats built to win a cup in a year, depending on what we do this year. Ideally, we'll win the division and have a heated playoff series against a rival - Anaheim, Calgary, Vancouver, Dallas. Pick your poison, but either way, so long as the Oilers pulled it off and then fell to a superior team the following round, there would be all kinds of things to be optimistic about moving forward. A young team that wins a playoff round, has a brand new owner, and has players like Horcoff committing the heart of their career there is going to grab UFA attention, and maybe we're not so far off from being the guys that sign Hossa to a one year deal well below market value.

Friday, August 01, 2008

Assessing The Entity that is the Edmonton Oilers


Below I outline a list of reasons that promote optimism of the 2008-2009 Edmonton Oilers franchise. I follow up with an outline of reasons to curb that enthusiasm.

REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC

  • "Tone At The Top" – Daryl Katz vision, resources, and enthusiasm increase player morale, and promote competency.
  • The Oilers got rid of players (Stoll and Pitkanen) who allegedly had:
  1. Desires to play elsewhere, and;
  2. Commitment issues surrounding them
  • All opposition teams in the NW have on paper, got worse. This by itself, should marginally improve the Oilers by at least 2-3 points in the standings.
  • The Oilers should, by virtue of experience gained in the past season, do better in terms of protecting late-game leads.
  • Presumable improvement in the conditioning department for Dustin Penner. It would be unlikely that he doesn't improve on his 1.34EV/60 rate.
  • Presumable improvement with age with respect to Ales Hemsky. He statistically had a great season, and that should continue as he's close to entering the prime of his career.
  • Shawn Horcoff, arguably the Oilers best player, who has been virtually injury free in his career, should be expected to play 75+ games, as opposed to the 53 in 2007-2008.
  • Erik Cole brings in size and speed to the top six. He was tied for 2nd in the league, with respect to number of penalties drawn (43). He only took 10 minor penalties himself.
  • With respect to penalties taken and penalties drawn, gone are Stoll (25:21), Pitkanen (23:8), Reasoner (19:10), Greene (10:5) SOURCE: BEHINDTHENET.CA
  • Lubomir Visnovsky fills Chris Pronger's skates on the point of the PP – a role inefficiently replaced over the past two seasons. This will presumably open room for Sheldon Souray on the other point, thus a case of utilizing resources to their strengths.
  • Lubomir's 5.2% SH % last season was well below the 11.3% and 11.2% marks the two previous years.
  • Fernando Pisani, arguably the Oilers best defensive forward, will have a training camp behind his belt and be ready on contribute at a high level in October, as opposed to January.
  • Ethan "I-hate-Milk" Moreau should be expected to play and demonstrate leadership for more than 25 games.
  • Robert Nilsson, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov, Kyle Brodziak, Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Zach Stortini, and Ladislav Smid should on a collective basis, improve on the results of past season.
  • The team's best goaltender, Garon, is expected to be a starter from opening day. It can be argued Craig MacTavish waited too long in the season before making a goaltending change, which effectively cost the team points.

CURB THAT ENTHUSIASM

  • The jury is still out on Garon, whether he can deliver a high level of performance for a full NHL season.
  • Ugly schedule to begin the season. For a young team, a poor start can be more difficult to recover
  • Injury issues, like the past two seasons, may continue to arise.
  • Shawn Horcoff is unlikely to duplicate his ~18% shooting percentage. Further consideration should be paid to the health of his shoulder.
  • Have Souray's shoulder injuries made him a "damaged good?"
  • Gilbert isn't going to duplicate his ~13% SH %. Just isn't.
  • The Oilers lost key tough minute eaters and successful face-off contributors in Marty Reasoner and Jarrett Stoll. Will the Brodziak's and Pouliot's adequately replace them?
  • The Western Conference should continue to be competitive, giving the Oilers little margin for error.

VERDICT

Please continue to remain optimistic.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Movin' on up



Today, the Oilers named Steve Tambellini their new general manager, with Kevin Lowe stepping into the new role as President of Hockey Operations. K-Pen (Kevin Prendergast) the longtime hockey operations veep, has been assistant GM.

More to come, I'm sure.

Props to Showerhead at IOF for this line:
I like Tambellini's gold medal track record, yes, but his Stanley Cups won decades ago as a player record is severely lacking. How can he be the one to lead us to the promised land?

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Raptors vs. Nuggets - In Edmonton

It's only pre-season, but still should be good.

STORY

Monday, July 28, 2008

Gilbert Brule and Jeff Deslauriers contract status


Gilbert Brule has 1 year left on his contract. He played less than 10 games as an 18 year old, so his contract was automatically extended for another year. 2006-20007 marked the first year of his entry-level contract. 2007-2008 marked the second. Whether he plays in the NHL or AHL this year, he will become a restricted free agent next year. He will be eligible for RFA offersheets.

Jeff Deslauriers, 31st overall pick in 2002, turned 24 in May. The Oilers will be REQUIRED to play him in at least 28 games (>30 minutes per game) over the next two years, otherwise he will be classified as a Group V UFA.

EDIT TO ADD: Perhaps this is why Lowe and company got him locked up to a one-way contract for the next two years. They likely intend to start giving him games this year, so in the event he is what they hope he is, they don't lose him in the same manner they lost Glencross. I was looking at his numbers today. His .912 SV% was short of Josh Harding's .919 SV%. Of course the Houston Aeros had 96 points in the standings, while Springfield had 80. Not discounting the difference, but perhaps JDD does have the ability to be at least a backup in the NHL level, as argued by Lowetide and Falcon followers at HF. Another point, as argued at Lowetide's, is JDD didn't really receive get many at-bats in his first two years in the AHL (22 and 13 games respectively).

We will see.



Interpreted from here

Friday, July 25, 2008

LONG TERM CONTRACTS - Part II [Goaltenders - Mathieu Garon]


Please refer to Part I of Long-Term Contracts motivations, before continuing this read.

There are several legitimate motivations for General Manager, Kevin Lowe to extend goaltender Mathieu Garon this summer. These are outlined and briefly discussed below:

MOTIVE #1 – RISK & REWARDS OF CONTRACT TERMS ARE EQUITABLY DISTRIBUTED

Presumably, the contract terms, from the organization's standpoint present at least a moderate possibility that the benefits of the Garon's services will exceed the value of the cumulative paycheques. The Oilers would be seeking player overperformance of the contract. Garon, meanwhile, would be seeking the security of the paycheques that will allow him, his immediate family, and grandchildren a life of sailing on yachts, eating bonbons, sipping refreshing drinks in tropical climates subsequent to retirement. In short, financial security.

MOTIVE #2 – LACK OF SUITABLE ALTERNATIVES

General Manager Kevin Lowe would sign Garon to a long term extension if he reasonably feels there are:

  1. No internal replacements in the system, or at least not so over the life of the extension
  2. No legitimate replacements via the foreseeable 2009 UFA class
  3. No legitimate replacements via the trade route at reasonable cost

This motivation presents profound leverage to the player in contract negotiation

MOTIVE #3 – CONTRACT STRUCTURE PRESENT UNIQUE OPPORTUNITIES

General Manager Kevin Lowe would sign Garon to a long term extension if the contract can be structured in a manner that provides the Oilers with unique opportunities, in the case of significant underperformance, such as:

  1. Frontloading the contract and buying him out in later years, and
  2. Back-loaded salary gives rise to the consideration to retirement
  3. Burying the contract in the minors

Of course with this option to be viable, strong ownership commitment would need to be prevalent. Given Garon is still relatively young, option (b) is unlikely if such an extension is equal or less than 5 years.

DEMOTIVATION #1 – INHERENT RISK

On a collective basis long-term contracts to goaltenders carry more inherent risk than do long-term contracts to defensemen and forwards.

In other words, there are greater potential adverse consequences as a result of subsequent poor performance by a goaltender than of other roster players!

Why? By virtue of the number of designated roster spots for a specified position. There is only one starting goaltender per team, while six starting defensemen, and a whopping twelve starting forwards every game.

Case in point: Sheldon Souray, who is paid like a top pairing defenseman. Despite the fact that he won't ever live up to his paycheques in his present contract, the damages can still be mitigated by playing him in a role in which he can still help the team win hockey games [i.e. bottom pairing, penalty kill, and arguably the powerplay]. With a goaltender like Mikka Kiprusoff, the opportunity for mitigating damages is narrow, given the inherent risk present. Continuing playing him, in the event of poor performance, leads to poor results on the ice; relegating him to backup duty represents a significant waste of otherwise available cap space. In other words, consistently poor performance generated by a goaltender with a long-term contract is filth; and filth carries limited to negligible value around the league.

FINDING THE BALANCE

The key here is balance. Extending Garon to a long term contract is fine, if at inception of contract, the presumable benefits exceed the costs. That is, the strength of the motivations exceed the strength of the demotivations. If I am Kevin Lowe, I have assessed risk for Garon at moderate. The exhibit below represents my comfortable contract offers (please note 1 and 2 year contracts are not classified as long-term contracts):

Number of Years

NHL Salary Cap Hit (USD)

1

4.00M

2

3.75M

3

3.50M

4

3.25M

5

3.00M

6

2.75M


Does that get it done? Perhaps. Perhaps not. The key is assessing the risks, and accordingly acting upon them. Kevin Lowe likely has the hammer [leverage] right now, given Garon's presumable desire for security. It would make good sense to utilize and derive benefit from this very hammer.

What do you offer, if you are Kevin Lowe?

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Sugartits!

If one thing can be unquestionably said about Rob Schremp, he's one hell of an interesting character. Scouts said he had the talent to go top 3 in his draft year, but because of "attitude" problems, he plummeted all the way to 25th, at which point the Oilers rolled the dice on him. Contrary to what scouts want us to believe, it looks like he very well will find a niche in the NHL, but it's not going to be as a #1 line C, and he's not going to be a lesser player because of his attitude or a waste of natural talent.

Rather, it's far more simple, and boils down mediocre skating and a shot that is more Moreau than Kovalchuk. He's working hard though, and looks like a guy who one way or another will have an NHL paycheck in the near future.

And, reading the tea leaves, I'm inclined to believe that that paycheck will be courteous of Mr. Daryl Katz. For the last few years, the top item at the list of "things you can do to impress the organization" has been to spend a few weeks in California with Chad Moreau. As Guy Flaming reported a few days ago, Sugartits has been there every single day since May 1st. That's not it though. He's received some pretty nice praise from both Craig MacTavish and Kelly Buchberger. I think the team believes in the kid, and that it's now or never for him.

Now, to steal something from LT, and ignoring the noise from his seasons in the OHL, lets take a look at his two seasons in the AHL and his Desjardin's numbers from them...

20 year old:
69-17-53
69-8-24

21 year old:
78-23-76
78-10-34

A few things jump out at me when I look at the numbers. First of all, for all the talk we've heard about his hands and his "NHL caliber shot," his goal scoring numbers have left a lot to desire, to put it lightly. Secondly, he's a year off of Vic's "PPG @ 20" line in the sand.... but that's still only a year. How much will him finally taking his off ice training seriously impact that? Tough to say, but I think the fact that he was only a year late, and did manage to find it before starting to really focus on his off-ice training does give reason to be optimistic.

It's not quite so simple though. The Oilers currently have 12 forwards signed to one-way deals, 8 defense signed to one-way deals, 2 goaltenders signed to one one-way deals, and one goaltender who would have to clear waivers to end up in the AHL. For those of you who aren't so great at math, that's 23 contracts. The only two guys who wouldn't have to clear waivers or be paid like an NHL'er to play in the AHL? Gagner and Cogliano. Something tells me they're not going anywhere. So lets assume the Oilers try to keep JDD here... what are their options?

This is Mathieu Roy, seeing stars and realizing how little he's missing the NHL by*. The Oilers currently have him on a one-way contract that will pay him $500,000. I think that, regardless of what he does during camp, Roy will either end up in Springfield, be claimed on waivers by another team, or dealt for a late round draft pick. The signing of Strudwick truly made Roy redundant, and I see no reason for him to remain on the team, even though he is a character guy and he is a decent option as the 7th D.

Still though, that frees up a 13th forward spot for the Oilers. Just one spot, and the guys fighting for it include Potulny, Brule, Reddox, Truhkno, JFJ among others. It's extremely possible that one of these guys shine even more than Schremp, and it's also possible that Schremp would be better suited to tear up the AHL then sit in the press box in Edmonton.

I don't think that's the plan though. The Oilers have two centers who they look at very, very, similarly in my mind. Kyle Brodziak and Marc Pouliot. Both are 2003 drafts, with Brodziak being an overager in the draft. I firmly believe that whichever one of them losses the "Pisani" center spot will find themselves playing in a different city come October, and the Oilers will hit the ice with:

Cole - Horcoff - Hemsky
Nilsson - Gagner - Cogliano
Penner - Pouliot - Pisani
Moreau - Schremp - Stortini
Potulny

Everyone will have a conniption when Schremp isn't paired with pure skill, but the fact of the matter is that he'll be brought along slowly, see time in the pressbox, and have responsible wingers on either side of him that'll make up for his lack of grit and defense, along with two of the hardest workers on the squad.

*Parts of this line may have been stolen from Supermassive, a regular at HFBoards ;)