Visnovsky and No Trade Clause

Above: the Big Lubowski

Jason Gregor recently asserted that the Oilers would be bound to Visnovsky's NTC.

That is not the case.

Article 11.8 of the CBA states

...If the player is traded or claimed on Waivers prior to the no-Trade or no-move clause taking effect, the clause does not bind the acquiring Club. An acquiring Club may agree to continue to be bound by the no-Trade or no-move clause, which agreement shall be evidenced in writing to the Player, Central Registry and the NHLPA, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereof...

Visnovsky was acquired on June 29, and As his NTC was not bound to take effect until July 1, 2008. Thus, the Oilers were under no obligation to be bound to that said clause for the duration of the contract. Unless, of course, the Oilers evidenced in writing that they wished to be bound by the clause - which just wouldn't result any benefit to the organization.

Shawn Horcoff (next 4 years) and Sheldon Souray (next 2 years) remain the only Oilers with the NTC.

Harassment

A certain member has been harassing me over the last few months non-stop. Even went as far as to get my phone number and start calling me in the middle of night. I won't mention the name, but here's their facebook picture (you must be logged onto facebook to view it), so people who *have* met this cunt know who I'm talking about:

FACEBOOK

Enough is enough. I have absolutely no choice but to call out the person out publicly. I mean, who the hell has a profile picture like that? Fuckin' dickwad.

Say it aint so, Ray

It's rumoured that Ray Ferraro, formerly with NBC and Rogers Sportsnet, will sign with TSN. - William Houston

July 21 article

Any predictions on his replacement?

The Flickering Flames

Cheap smokes and cheaper women; the life of a superstar in Calgary. What amazes me about this picture every time I see it, is just how ugly these girls actually are. That said, there's a bit more to be said about the Flames than questioning the personal life choices of guys like Phaneuf and Kiprusoff. I mean, everyone has had a few too many at one time or another and at least considered taking home a goal who could be described as having a "good personality" at best. It's a fact of life, and I suppose no amount of money changes the fact that booze is a good way to come up with a lot of bad ideas in a short period of time.

That said, a teams General Manager shouldn't be drinking while he's on the job; so I'm not quite sure that we can fully understand what exactly Sutter is thinking. He has traded away quality defenseman signed to good contracts forever, and it's finally starting to catch up with him as he's now paying a guy like Aucoin $4,000,000 to take up cap space that he doesn't have. He's continually managed to get guys to sign to bargain deals, with Regehr and Iginla leading that train. The problem being, he gets a few good deals, pisses away his draft picks and continually chases after reclamation projects instead of legitimate players who can contribute at both ends. This lead to Alex Tanguay being a scape goat for not turning Wayne Primeau into an actual hockey player.

Calgary has made a lot of moves this offseason. Tanguay is gone, and replaced by no one. Huselius was replaced by more expensive Cammalleri. Conroy was signed to a bargain price, several guys were waived but have yet to be moved (Nilson, Warrener, Erikson). Calgary is sitting nearly $2,500,000 over the cap assuming Giordano only got $1,000,000. Nolan was downgraded to a broken Bertuzzi. Glencross proved that is, in fact, a flake. Bourque was brought in to provide "offense." Yelle departed and Langkow took a hometown discount.

What does this mean?

Well, as far as I can see, Calgary lost their 2nd best forward in Tanguay. Their top 6 has gone from:

Iginla
Tanguay
Langkow
Huselius
Lombardi
Nolan

To:

Iginla
Langkow
Cammalleri
Lombardi
Bertuzzi
Conroy

Sorry.... but anyway you slice that, that is a massive downgrade. Compounding matters is that they lost 2 of their top 4 PK'ers and 4 of their top 7 PK'ers up front. Glencross can't kill penalties. Cammalleri can't kill penalties. Bertuzzi can't kill penalties. Andre Roy can certainly spend a lot of time in the box for being a general idiot... but he can't kill penalties either. Of their core (Iginla - Langkow - Regehr - Phaneuf - Kiprusoff), only Phaneuf and Regehr are on the right side of 30 and only Phaneuf has any real reason to believe he can improve.*

So... what's left to happen? The PP, that was middling last season, will likely be middling again. The mediocre PK will likely border on terrible. At evens, they've likely improved marginally in replacing Eriksson with Giordano on the backend, but again that'll be canceled out when rumoured speculation that Aucoin is dealt takes place. Up front, they lost their 2nd best forward at 5v5, and didn't attempt to replace him. Even if their depth is better (very, very, suspect), they've declined there as well.

*This however, leads me to the one wild card that could save the Flames. Kiprusoff had a horrendous year last season. After several years as an elite goaltender, he fell right off the map. Was it just a bad year? Or is he now just another guy? That is the only possible saving grace for the Flames in my eyes...

Unless someone can remind me of any other reason as to why the Flames aren't significantly worse this season while teams like Vancouver (assuming they get Sundin), Edmonton, Chicago and Phoenix have all taken steps forward?

LONG TERM CONTRACTS

LONG TERM CONTRACTS

Kevin Lowe has not hesitated in signing players to "long-term contract," or acquiring those who have such contracts already in place, under the NHL Salary Cap operating system. In this exercise, I examine and discuss various underlying motives for this strategy, their costs and benefits, and then apply the analysis to the case of the Edmonton Oilers. Please note there can be more than one possible motive for each individual player. Also, please assume for the exercise's purpose, a "long-term contract" is defined as a SPC equal or greater than 3 years and exclude all entry-level contracts.

Using this benchmark criterion, the table below displays the long term contracts Kevin Lowe has compiled, post-NHL lockout.

PLAYER	AVERAGE SALARY (USD)	DURATION (IN YEARS)
Horcoff, Shawn (2nd)	$5.500	6
Hemsky, Ales	$4.100	6
Gilbert, Tom	$4.000	6
Pronger, Chris	$6.250	5
Souray, Sheldon	$5.400	5
Visnovsky, Lubomir	$5.600	5
Penner, Dustin	$4.250	5
Staios, Steve	$2.700	4
Pisani, Fernando	$2.500	4
Moreau, Ethan	$2.000	4
Roloson, Albert	$3.667	3
Horcoff, Shawn (1st)	$3.600	3
Lupul, Joffrey	$2.667	3
Torres, Raffi	$2.250	3
Nilsson, Robert	$2.000	3
Stortini, Zachery	$0.700	3

I now discuss the underlying motives a General Manager may have for signing players to such contracts.

MOTIVE #1 – RISK & REWARDS OF CONTRACT TERMS ARE EQUITABLY DISTRIBUTED

The General Manager will sign a player to a long-term contract in a situation in which the risks and rewards of the contract terms are equitably distributed. In such a scenario, there are mutual benefits to both the player and the organization and consideration is given up by both of the mentioned parties. From the organization's standpoint, there exists at least a moderate possibility that the benefits of the player's services will exceed the value of the cumulative paycheques. From the player's standpoint, the security the contract provides is desirable, given consideration to possible unanticipated future events such as long term injury or declining performance. The marginal utility of security is such that the player would have a preference of it over the possibility of earning $X more dollars over the length of the contract, had the player signed a contract shorter in duration. In other words, the player is said to be risk averse, preferring instant gratification over the possibility of longer term gains.

This motive is appropriate in certain circumstances; not so in others.

Some examples of appropriate circumstances include:

• Relatively young players exhibiting escalating performance and are recently removed from their entry-level contract. The relatively young player is willing to commit a period such in length that it "eats" away the player's unrestricted free agency years.
  
• The player's cap hit : NHL Salary Cap ratio is progressively declining, and as a result, a long term contract becomes increasingly attractive to the organization, ceteris paribus.
  

Some examples of inappropriate circumstances include:

• Relatively older player, that has demonstrated declining performance, or there exists reasonable likelihood that the relatively older player will demonstrate declining performance, over the length of the contract and the contract term's are biased towards past, rather than expected future performance.
  
• Player has demonstrated a strong history of injuries, and it is reasonable to assume the prospect of future injuries is greater for such a player, as opposed to the average NHL player. This diminishes the likelihood that the benefits of the contract terms will exceed the costs, including the effects of replacement costs during the injury period.
  

MOTIVE #2 – LACK OF SUITABLE ALTERNATIVES

The General Manager will sign a team's existing player, whom is approaching unrestricted free agency, to a long-term contract when he feels the player fulfills a role or team need and that such role or need cannot be efficiently and effectively replaced by immediate internal recruitment.

The General Manager's grounds for justification for the length of the contract would be twofold:

• Losing the said player will presumably lead to a significant drop in overall team performance , and;
  
• Replacing that said player, either via trade or unrestricted free agency, will occur at an unreasonable cost, or such a cost that would make the team worse on an overall basis.
  

It would not be justified to sign a player to a long-term contract when:

• There is a strong network of replacements within the organization that can efficiently and effectively replace that said player and;
  
• A long term contract to such a player would result in greater long-term damage to the organization. Such a contract would be untradeable, and would presumably result in future years, due to the salary cap, a loss of other organization assets.
  

MOTIVE #3 – FREE AGENCY

The sheer nature of the NHL's Unrestricted Free Agency results long-term offers in obtaining the services of such a player. This, of course, makes sense; the leverage the player holds in such a situation leaves teams with no alternative option but to offer longer terms, to presumably improve their organization on an overall basis, at least so immediately.

This motive is once again, appropriate in certain circumstances; not so in others.

Some examples of appropriate circumstances include:

• Unrestricted Free Agent X fulfills a team need immediately. That need cannot be filled internally, and the cost in alternative routes, such as the trade market, would be greater than the cost in the unrestricted free agent market.
  
• The organization presently has an abundance of vacant cap space, and will so in the foreseeable future. As a result, such a contract will not adversely affect the team, and the alternative of obtaining the player's services benefits the organization more than the alternative of incurring vacant cap space.
  

Some examples of inappropriate circumstances include:

• The contract, immediately upon signature, becomes presumably untradeable
  
• The player has demonstrated a strong history of injuries, and future injuries are reasonably foreseeable, such that the contract's strength is undermined.
  
• A long term contract to such a player would result in greater long-term damage to the organization. Such a contract will presumably result in future years, due to the salary cap, a loss of other organization assets
  

MOTIVE #4 – RESTRICTED FREE AGENCY OFFERSHEETS

The sheer nature of the NHL's RFA Offersheet program, generally results a General Manager to offer long term contracts, in the process of obtaining the services of a restricted free agent. This is because RFAs subject to an offersheet are typically young players with escalating performance, and in an attempt to ensure the benefits of the player's services will exceed the cost (Salary + Draft Picks), a long term contract is offered. Such an RFA will likely be overpaid in earlier years, but the underlying goal is such a player overperforms the contract in the later years. Such overperformance is more likely if the contract is greater in duration.

This motive is once again, appropriate in certain circumstances; not so in others.

Some examples of appropriate circumstances include:

• There is greater than moderate probability the organization benefits from RFA X's services will exceed the cost (Salary + Draft Picks), over the life of the contract.
  
• There is a strong probability the team's draft slot in the year(s) of draft pick(s) compensation will be closer to the draft slot of the Stanley Cup Champions, rather than closer to the lottery draft winner.
  

Some examples of inappropriate circumstances include:

• There is greater than moderate probability the organization benefits from RFA X's services will NOT exceed the cost (Salary + Draft Picks), over the life of the contract.
  
• There is a strong probability the team's draft slot in the year(s) of draft pick(s) compensation will be closer to the draft slot of the lottery draft winner, rather than closer to the Stanley Cup Champions
  

  
  

MOTIVE #5 – CONTRACT STRUCTURE PRESENT UNIQUE OPPORTUNITIES

An innovative General Manager may sign a player to a longer term contract, such that the contract is structured in a manner to present the organization with unique opportunities in later years. These opportunities are discussed below:

• The contract is structured in such a way in which the salary is frontloaded. In later years, the salary payable will be significantly lower, which would make the contract attractive to budget-minded organizations in the NHL. Also, in later years, if the performance is not in close proximity of the cap hit, the team has the ability to buy-out that said player.
  
• The contract is structured in such a way in which the salary is frontloaded. In later years, the salary payable is significantly lower, such that, the player would give strong consideration to retirement. If the player was signed to this long term contract before he turned 35, the player's cap hit is eliminated the moment the retirement papers are signed.
  
• The owner(s) of the team is (are) operate under a results-oriented (Stanley Cup) approach rather than a profit-oriented approach. Such, the owner(s) is (are) willing to in the future, if the player's performance is not in close proximity to cap hit, send the player to the minors and pay his salary there. Such a move would eliminate the player's cap hit to the organization, if such a player was signed before he turned 35.
  

APPLYING THE CASE ANALYSIS TO THE EDMONTON OILERS

1. MOTIVE #1 – RISK & REWARDS OF CONTRACT TERMS ARE EQUITABLY DISTRIBUTED
   
   1. Appropriate Circumstances
      

      Horcoff, Shawn (2^nd),
      

      Hemsky, Ales,
      

      Gilbert, Tom
      

      Pronger, Chris
      

      Visnovsky, Lubomir
      

      Penner, Dustin
      

      Horcoff, Shawn (1^st)
      

      Lupul, Joffrey
      

      Nilsson, Robert
      

      Stortini, Zachery
      

   2. Inappropriate Circumstances
      

      Souray, Sheldon
      

      Roloson, Albert
      

      Moreau, Ethan
      

2. MOTIVE #2 – LACK OF SUITABLE ALTERNATIVES
   
   1. Appropriate Circumstances
      

      Horcoff, Shawn (2^nd)
      

      Hemsky, Ales
      

      Visnovsky, Lubomir
      

      Staios, Steve
      

      Pisani, Fernando
      

      Moreau, Ethan
      

      Horcoff, Shawn (1^st)
      

   2. Inappropriate Circumstances
      

      Roloson, Albert
      

3. MOTIVE #3 – FREE AGENCY
   
   1. Appropriate Circumstances
      

      N/A
      

   2. Inappropriate Circumstances
      

      Souray, Sheldon
      

4. MOTIVE #4 – RESTRICTED FREE AGENCY OFFERSHEETS
   
   1. Appropriate Circumstances
      

      Penner, Dustin*
      

   2. Inappropriate Circumstances
      

      Penner, Dustin*
      

5. MOTIVE #5 – CONTRACT STRUCTURE PRESENT UNIQUE OPPORTUNITIES
   
   1. Appropriate Circumstances
      

      Souray, Sheldon
      

      Visnovsky, Lubomir
      

      Staios, Steve
      

      Roloson, Albert
      

   2. Inappropriate Circumstances
      

      N/A
      

      
      

• Too early to evaluate the appropriateness
  

CONCLUSION

There are several motives for an NHL General Manager to sign players to a long-term contract, or acquire players who are in one. The above compiled analysis does not evaluate the actual contract, which is influenced by other factors. Rather, the analysis evaluates the underlying motive behind the long-term contracts, and whether the circumstances surround the motive was appropriate or not. In appears on surface, Kevin Lowe has reasonable grounds for justification of the majority of his long-term contracts either signed or acquired.

Please review the analysis, and chime in with your opinion and/or feedback.

Horcoff Signs the Dotted Line

And isn't he just beautiful?

$33,000,000 over the next 6 years. It'll kick in after next season, so Scorecoff is signed until he's 36 years old. He also went as far to say he hopes, and envisions that this is not his last contract.

And I completely buy that. By all accounts, the only two other guys in the league that get mentioned in the same conversation of "most fit" NHL'er are Chris Chelios and Horseface, and we have all seen how that has turned out for those two. He's only had the one major injury, and said today it feels better than ever. He's a character guy who has worked harder than everyone else to become one of the best centers in the league.

Moving forward, there's a lot to like about this though. Lowe was very proactive in making sure this didn't become a "Smyth" situation, and as such he helped us avoid a distraction all season long while he put up numbers, his demands went up, and Lowe stayed at the same price. 100% agree with this. We also have our #1 C and our #1 RW locked up as a pair the next 4 seasons at 7.7, 9.6, 9.6, 9.6 combined... you have to imagine they out perform that every year.

This guy is the next Captain of the Oilers, and even more-so, more than even Ryan Smyth, this guy is exactly what being an Oiler should be all about. He's a talented guy, but more importantly he is a guy who has superseded his expectations at every single level. He's a 3rd round draft pick who was never going to be better than a 4th liner. Then a 3rd liner. Then a 2nd liner. Then a "1b" first liner. And now he's just legit, and he's done it on natural talent and a work ethic that few could ever lay blame too. There is no other player I'd rather see be a wire-to-wire Edmonton Oiler.

The absolute best thing about this signing though?

This is what good teams do. This is what the Detroit Red Wings do. This is what the New England Patriots do. This is what the Spurs do. They build from within, find their core, and they keep them together. They pay them, and those are the guys they pay. An atmosphere is created, the wins start to come, you add pieces through smart drafting and good trades. Before you know it, players WANT to play for you... and that's when you add Hossa on a one year deal.

The Oilers are in a fantastic position moving forward, and this contract is a huge step in the right direction.

Centre of attention

Word out of Oilerville is that Shawn Horcoff has signed a five six-year contract extension. Figures as yet unknown, but who gives a shit: this is simply awesome news. Enjoy your payday, you brilliant heterochromatic bastard. Nothing left to do with the guy but give him the damn "C".

Stay tuned.

EDIT: Early reports are saying it's a six year, $33 million deal. That's a $5.5M cap hit. Niiiiiice.

Joni Pitkanen

This is the late Robert Stack, a host of the 80’s and 90’s dark matter show, Unsolved Mysteries. His coat was ridiculously long, the voice was eerie, and the narration while walking through the forest terrified the innocent 6 year old out of me. However, his smooth delivery kept viewers interested, and helped solve hundreds of crime related mysteries over the decades. I am no Robert Stack, but please allow me to help guide you through an unsolved mystery relating to the Edmonton Oilers.

JONI PITKANEN
Acquired twelve months ago, in an effort to improve speed, agility, and breakout passing on the wrong side of the red line, it was expected he would be the staple to the Oilers blue line for the next decade. Dubbed as the most physically talented defenseman on the Oilers since Paul Coffey, he gave the organization and the fans reason to be optimistic. There were whispers about his character, his stubbornness, his personality – but everybody just assumed they would go away.

It didn’t turn out that way.

Perhaps the first warning evidence of Joni’s stay in Edmonton being a short one was the signed contract for the 2007-2008 season. 1 year – 2.4M. Questions were put forward: Why didn’t Kevin Lowe lock up the player he paid significant consideration for? Was Joni Pitkanen asking for the moon?

The second warning evidence was connected host, Bob Stauffer, who suggested the Oilers may be looking at moving this defenseman. Keep in mind, at this point in time, Joni had yet to play a game for the Oilers.

The regular season began, and the whispers from the local media didn’t slow down. Joni, shy, but talented, injured his knee early on in the season and was gone for a month. There were other minor injuries and flu’s throughout the year that kept him out of the line-up. An interesting quote from head coach Craig MacTavish when Joni missed a few games with a lower body injury was, “I can’t go in his body and make him play.” Joni ended up missing 19 games in total, and drew criticism for his pain tolerance. However, it was without doubt the Edmonton Oilers were a better team with Joni Pitkanen in the line-up.

Fast forward to the off-season. Joni was selected to play for the Finland National Team at the World Championships. He withdrew due to another injury, and this time was called out by the national team’s head coach.

General Manager Kevin Lowe wasted no time signing RFA’s he wanted back the next year. Robert Nilsson, Denis Grebeshkov, and Tom Gilbert. Many speculated the signing of Tom Gilbert signalled the end of Joni Pitkanen’s time in Edmonton. Kevin Lowe dismissed that, but in the end these speculators were right.

Just days before July 1, 2008, the beginning of the Unrestricted Free Agency period, the Oilers acquired Lubomir Visnovsky – a move made to effectively for a subsequent transaction. Just days later, on July 1, Joni Pitkanen was moved for power-forward Erik Cole. The end result was the Oilers improved the team in the short run, but the trade’s attractiveness remains contingent as to whether Cole’s contract is extended after the 2008-2009 season.

After the trade, several players and coaches suggested that Joni didn’t blend into the team. Ethan Moreau, Shawn Horcoff uncomfortably asserted so in the local media, while Mathieu Garon spoke about the situation on Montreal airwaves. As a fan, it was observable – at least so when Joni scored goals, and the teammates awkwardly congratulated him. The chemistry element was never there, but such is life. At the workplace, one will encounter different personalities. However, one wonders if Joni was a little more outspoken, and a little more assertive, that he, not Tom Gilbert, would be recipient of a six year contract.

Joni briefly spoke after the trade. He mentioned he had a good time in the city, but was looking forward to playing with his “very good friend, T. Ruutu” in Carolina. Perhaps excitement coming from a player who needed a mentor, to play in location where he will be less publicly scrutinized.

The end result was the Joni Pitkanen experiment did not go as expected. I wish Joni the very best in Carolina.

THE QUESTIONS FOR THE VIEWERS
Where did things go wrong?

Was it yet another Edmonton issue?

Did Joni at any point intend to stay long term in Edmonton? Is so, why was he living in a hotel?

Should character play a significant role in negotiating contracts? If so, why? If not, why not?

Does the perceived notion that he didn’t blend in with his teammates affect his performance on the ice?

Will Joni bounce back to performance levels prior the 2006-2007 season?

Did his injuries impact his play?

Did the Edmonton media play a role in his departure?

What were the reasons for his trade request?

What conflict was there between Joni and head coach, Craig MacTavish?

Who will assume Joni’s role of playing the tough minutes (and the Even 5 on 5 rating)?

Did the Oilers organization do everything they could to welcome Joni? To promote efficiency?

And finally, did the Oilers make the right move in trading Joni Pitkanen for Erik Cole?

Join us, next time, for another edition of Unsolved Mysteries.

Big Bert's back

Noted neck breaker Todd Bertuzzi just signed a one-year, $1.95 million contract with the Flames. Eric Cole is getting nervous.

Shell game

A superstar player can lead to winning and thus towards a new arena, LaForge says. “You win championships and motivate a community to say, ‘We can do better. We’re bigger, more important, more valuable to Canada and to hockey, if you will. So we need to invest.’ ”

- The Cult of Hockey

This is David Staples speculating that the Oilers' flurry of activity (including the potential attempted Hossa signing) are part of a plan to put the Oilers in a position to win it all so that the team's ownership can convert the resulting outpouring of pride and goodwill into support for a publicly financed new arena. He's probably on to something there.

Me, I'm at the point now where I'm willing to bow to the inevitable and accept that a new arena will be built with a heaping helping of taxpayer dollars. Since I don't actually live in Edmonton anymore, my objections to welfare for billionaires have always been a matter of principle. But to be perfectly frank, if a pile of public cash for a new arena is the price to pay to see Stanley back in Edmonton, it's one I'm willing to let you all pay.

Enjoy your potholes, suckers!

POSTSCRIPT:

Another point from Staples that I want to address is the following:

From a hockey perspective, there would have been absolutely nothing wrong with standing pat this summer, giving Jarret Stoll one more year to see if he can fully recover from his concussion, giving Joni Pitkanen another chance to show he just might be an All-Star puck-moving defenceman, giving Matt Greene a much deserved chance to establish himself as the new Jason Smith of the Oil blueline, a rugged team leader capable of playing against tough opposition.

Frankly, that would have been the prudent course of action if the Oilers focus was slowly building towards a Stanley Cup winning team, putting pieces in place around the likes of Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano.

That makes sense and is all well and good, but if recent history has taught us anything, the days of the slow rebuild seem to be over. The onset of the cap, early free agency means teams are now in a constant state of flux. Even with a solid core locked up, finding the right supporting pieces year after year to ensure a consistent contender is going to be a challenge for most teams not named the Red Wings. Against this backdrop, it makes perfect sense to shorten the time frame for your standard rebuild. Put another way: for the Oil, the last two years were rebuilding years. This year, with new deep pocketed ownership, there's a good chance for this team to make a hard charge for a long playoff run. Why not go for it? Isn't winning now the whole fucking point?

Burning down the house

That's not the infamous 2001 Canada Day "riot" up there, but the 2006 Stanley Cup "riots." (note to cops, media and hooligans: it's not a riot until a cop car gets flipped and set on fire. A busted window at Tops convenience store and a few purloined copies of "Juggs" do not a riot make). Speaking of 2006, one of the guys on that year's Cup winning Hurricanes squad is an Oiler today. That, friends, is called a segue.

Former Eisbaren Berlin star Erik "Vertebrae" Cole comes over from tobacco country for enigmatic and oft-injured young Finn Joni Pitkanen. Now, I always believed that Pitkanen was the most skilled player on the Oilers roster next to Hemsky and that his character issues were overblown. Guess not.The question marks were enough for the Oilers to send out a kid who's already a real difference maker for a guy in the last year of his deal who scores at rates that make Shawn Horcoff not at all jealous.

So far, Kevin Lowe's off-season looks like this:

Pikanen for Cole
Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene to L.A. for D Lubomir Visnovsky.
Raffi Torres to the Columbus Blue Jackets for 21-year-old centre Gilbert Brule.

In terms of assets coming in, the Oilers get a veteran offensive defenceman coming off a bad year, a pint-size former first round pick and a big, physical winger that can play some tough minutes. Brule is a bust and in losing Torres, the Oil give up a physical prescence (though a maddeningly inconsistent one) and a decent ES player, which is weird given how few of those they have. He was kind of a douchebag, I guess, and that makes this deal okay for some.

All in all, I'm having a hard time seeing any of these as big upgrades. I've always been a fan of Lobo, but he effectively takes Pitkanen's spot. Cole more than effectively replaces Torres, but I'd be a lot happier if he came with an extension or additional assets as insurance for if/when he walks at the end of what will almost certainly be another year on the fringes. He will also likely bump Dustin Penner off the first line, another clear addmission by Lowe that he fucked up that offer sheet deal.

"Creme" Brule? By all accounts he's as useless as tits on a boar.

The Oilers are older today and a little better, but not by a whole lot. We'll see what, if anything, happens next.

The Sympathy Contract?

Mathieu Roy (Livelihood Stats) will not have a lengthy term NHL career as an Edmonton Oiler.

Mathieu Roy has a one-way contract for the 2008-2009 NHL season at a 0.500M cap hit. He will be compensated this amount regardless of whether he's with the Oilers, or buried in the minors after clearing waivers.

Unless, of course, he is bought out before today's (Monday) 3 p.m. MDT NHL deadline.

The Edmonton Oilers presently boast a defensive crops of:

Sheldon Souray, Joni Pitkanen, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov, Steve Staios, Lubomir Visnovsky, and Ladislav Smid.

That's 7. With Taylor Chorney, Theo Peckham, and Josaf Hrabral breathing heavily.

Given the fact he hasn't played enough games, Roy can be bought out for a mere 1/3 of his contract, effectively ~166,667, over double the length of the contract (2 years). This would effectively mean, a minute 83,333 cap hit over the next 2 years.

Is this a sympathy contract, with the Oilers wishing to stay true to their commitment? Or does Roy really figure in the Oilers plan of press-box defenseman?

Finding a Dance Partner.....

"Talk is cheap, shut up and dance/don't get deep, shut up and dance."

- Aerosmith

I feel like I'm stealing from LT, using lyrics that fit the Oilers situation here, but it just fit too well, dammit. Kevin Lowe has talked, and talked, and talked, since he dealt Pronger. But he hasn't done a whole lot besides talk, and it's time for him to just shut up, find a dance partner, and make some magic happen. If we have to wait any longer, we're going to have to hear about his new hair cut....

Since the lockout, Kevin Lowe has entered every season with an unbalanced roster. In 05-06 we saw the Conkabostonaccentnenn experiment. Following that, the Oilers rolled up the rim all of 06-07, with a D Corps that left everyone wanting a lot more, and last year we hit the ground running with more rookies than the Florida Marlins usually have.

This year?

There's a lot of 6's and 7's, and a lot of guys who sure look like they're on their way to becoming Q's and K's... but there's also very few actual Q's and K's. Thanks to a hot streak at the end of the season that clearly wasn't sustainable, the Oilers fan base is expecting a playoff birth.

Looking at the depth chart, an argument can be made that the Oilers have as many as 17 forwards and 8 D who should at the least be in the pressbox instead of in the AHL. They've paid their dues, and it's time for the Oilers to make a decision. Lets assume that Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky, Gagner, Moreau, Pisani and Nilsson are the forwards not moving anywhere for any reason, and that Souray, Pitkanen, Grebeshkov, Gilbert and Staios are the D that can safely own instead of rent. That leaves: Cogliano (Who is only dealt in a deal that brings back a young, star), Smid, Greene, Schremp, Pouliot, Stoll, Torres and Chorney as players of interest.

The Oilers needs are pretty obvious from my standpoint, either a LW to improve the top unit and allow Penner to give some toughness and take some time with two of the kids, or a legit D. First round picks certainly aren't a bad thing, but they're not going to come easily in another hyped draft, unless we're dealing two players to a very desperate team.

Basically, the Oilers can offer young depth to a rebuilding team. Smid and Greene would certainly garner interest, Cogliano is a deal breaker, and a lot of teams would still like guys like Torres and Stoll on their roster. Chorney is pretty close to being a blue chip guy himself, and Pouliot and Schremp at this point in their careers are more of a throw in to finish a deal. We know the Oilers won't won't make deals with any of Calgary, Vancouver, Colorado, Buffalo or Anaheim for varying reasons. I wouldn't rule out a deal with Minnesota.

So first, we'll look for teams that actually have that player who could or could not be the missing piece and whom the Oilers will deal with, and whom presumably could be available for the right package. We'll get into the package after. Basically, right now we're just identifying youngish LW's and youngish D's who have high upside, but aren't Alexander Ovechkin. They must at least be Sophomores, but ideally we're talking about a guy on his second contract.

Atlanta - Kovalchuk, Exelby
Carolina - Cole, Williams
Chicago - Havlat, Keith
Columbus - Zherdev, Tollefsen
Florida - Bouwmeester
LA - Frolov
Minnesota - Gaborik
Montreal - Higgins, Komisarek
Nashville - Hamhuis
New Jersey - Elias
Philly - Gagne
Phoenix - 1st in '09
Pittsburgh - 1st in '09
San Jose - Michalek
St. Louis - Kariya, McKee
Tampa - 1st in '09, Ranger
Toronto - 1st in '09, Steen
Washington - Semin, Green

Now, I'm not denying there are some big, big name tickets on the board there. The chances of actually landing a guy like Kovalchuk or Gaborik are minimal at best, but that's not the point of this exercise. What I'm looking for here simply, is to name every possible acquisition that wouldn't cost the moon and would improve the team in one way or another. The 1st's don't immediately improve the team by any stretch, but in this draft, and with those teams windows, I think all of them could and would be available in the right deal.

The next question here, of course, is what teams here would be interested in pulling a quality for quantity deal? What teams here are in desperate need of some filler for their roster? Which teams here need to either blow it up and hope for a quick reload through a lot of assets, are in cap trouble, or absolutely need to go into win now mode?

From that list of teams, I would say:

Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Florida, LA, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa and Toronto fit one of those descriptions and would at least consider a package.

What would a package of Torres, Smid and Greene look like to Tampa Bay? Does that get you Paul Ranger and their 1st? What about Cogliano, Smid, Schremp and Stoll for Kovalchuk? How much would Pittsburgh part with for Torres and Greene, attempting to replace Malone and Orpik? What about Toronto? What would they give up for a guy like Jarret Stoll, who could inject some much needed heart into that room?

Either way, I think we're looking at something like Lowe is right now. He knows who he'll move, and he knows what he wants, and he should hopefully know what the other teams needs are.... so where's the match here? What combination of the above players gets us what I've listed?

Alex Tanguay to Mike Cammalleri is a downgrade

PDO and I were discussing this last night. I initally thought it was a good move for the Flames. PDO disagreed, and brought up a few good points. He has now convinced me this move is a huge step back for the Flames:

1) Last year, Cammalleri had the 2nd easiest QUAL COMP rating on the Kings, with a -0.04 QUAL COMP Rating. Tanguay had the toughest minutes on the Flames, with a QUAL COMP of +0.07

BEHIND THE NET - QUAL COMP - LA

BEHIND THE NET - QUAL COMP - CGY

2) In Cammalleri's best season he put up 80 points, only 43 of those came at even strength.

In Alex Tanguay's worst NHL season in recent memory last year, 45 of his points were on EV.

Cammalleri will help the powerplay, but that may be negligible with the pending loss of Kristian Huselius. It seems Calgary were a better team pre-draft. Losing 8 spots in the first round didn't help the trade evaluation in their favor either.

*Special thanks to PDO for the argument's foundation

Why Joni Pitkanen May Be Traded

Kevin Lowe wasted little time prioritizing and getting a signature from the likes of Tom Gilbert, Robert Nilsson, and Denis Grebeshkov.

On the flip side of the coin are: Joni Pitkanen. Jarrett Stoll. Marc-Antoine Pouliot. Zach Stortini. JF Jacques. 5 assets of the Edmonton Oilers that are vulnerable to an RFA offersheet. The latter three will have minimal interest around the league. With Jarrett Stoll, the compensation may be sufficient. However, Joni Pitkanen’s situation is coming eerily disturbing every counting day he is left unsigned.

Joni Pitkanen has been whispered to be on the market the moment he was traded to the Oilers last July. If there are few sources, you are inclined to dismiss these rumours without second thought. However, when the sea is bursting, you are left with little discretion but to gaze. From NY, to LA, to Carolina, there appears strong interest in obtaining the young Finnish defenseman. Given that Pitkanen wasn’t prioritized at the top of the global urban food chain, and left vulnerable to the RFA offersheet (Team elected arbitration was not applicable), you really wonder how devoted Kevin Lowe is retaining his services.

According to NHLSCAP.com, the compensation for an RFA Offersheet will be:

Amount Compensation Due
$863,156 or less None
$863,156 - $1,307,811 3rd round pick
$1,307,811 - $2,615,623 2nd round pick
$2,615,623 - $3,923,434 1st and 3rd round pick
$3,923,434 - $5,231,246 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
$5,231,246 - $6,539,061 Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
$6,539,061 or more Four 1st round picks

The upper end of the bolded category is what I fear. Too much to the extent that it is no longer a value contract in the short term; and too low to the extent that the compensation is insufficient for a young man who was the Oilers best defenceman last season and has Norris-Trophy Potential.

Perhaps Kevin Lowe realizes this. Perhaps he realizes the possibility that negotiating with Joni will not be an effortless task. Perhaps he realizes that he will be put in a very tough position if the offersheet is received at the end of July; too late to dip in the free agent market and find a sufficient value contract, and insufficient compensation levels that will most certainly leave the 2008 Oilers defence corps in an unsightly position. Perhaps Kevin Lowe realizes all of the above.

Which is why, and not necessarily saying I be of the same opinion, believe there is a good possibility that Joni Pitkanen will be traded within the next 15 days.

Did You Know...

Wayne Gretzky received a honorary degree at the University of Alberta in 2000?

OLD LINK

Playoff Predictions Pool - Final Results

Thank you for participating

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

Overall Standings after 4 of 4 rounds:
LittleFury 140+10=150 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 110+40=150 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 140+0=140
doritogrande 100+40=140
JambonDan 130
YKOil 120+0=120
PDO 120+20=120
Jonathan 100+20=120
Paulus 100+10=110
Mr DeBakey 100
jon 70
Oilman 50
Jon G 20

Round 4 Results
doritogrande 40 (CO-WINNER)
MikeW 40 (CO-WINNER)
Jonathan 20
PDO 20
Paulus 10
LittleFury 10
YKOIL 0
PunjabiOil 0

Round 3 Results:
PunjabiOil 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
PDO 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+10=20
LittleFury 10+10=20
DeBakey 10+10=20
Jonathan 10+10=20
Paulus 0+20=20
YKOil 20+0=20
doritogrande 0+0=0

Round 2 Results:
JambonDan 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 10+10+20=40
Paulus 20+10=30
doritogrande 10+10+10=30
Jonathan 10+10=20
LittleFury 20
Jon G 20
YKOil 10
PDO 10
DeBakey 0

Round 1 Results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40

Off-Season Approach

Dan Tencer dos a nice job getting the goods out of Craig MacTavish and Kevin Lowe,

Some excerpts:

ON TRADING

MacTavish

The young bodies also complicate things. Going down the roster, the numbers don't add up. There are too many names for too few spots. "It's a simple mathematical equation at this point," says MacTavish. "There are more players than there are positions. They're all good players so there's going to be good competition barring a multiple player deal."

Lowe

"We look at it and go ok, who's going to be here, because we've got a lot of bodies. Now it's a matter of me and the organization to do the best to manage the assets and improve the hockey team. If that means potentially getting into a situation where we move three or four assets for one or two coming back, that might be a good thing."

The hints are there, but unlike last year, a more conservative approach to the offseason has been taken


ON REASONER:

MacTavish

"I want Reasoner back for sure," MacTavish told me matter-of-factly. "He's a valuable member of our team. We'd be remisce in a lot of respects not to bring him back. We're hopeful that we can get him signed."

Lowe

Kevin Lowe acknowledges Reasoner's value, but doesn't have the same cut-and-dry feeling as his head coach. "I've talked to Marty's agent saying we have interest in bringing Marty back but we also have a lot of bodies right now so we have to see what unfolds in the next weeks and months."

Somewhat conflicting approaches. MacTavish has his favourites, but Marty was terrific in the last half of the year. He was instrumental on the penalty-kill, and played one of the toughest minutes on the Oilers. Lowe probably is juggling on whether there is enough room going forward down the middle:

Horcoff
Gagner
Stoll
Brodziak

Pouliot
Schremp
Nash

Of course you can convert some of them on the wing, but there is only so much room. I would personally approach Reasoner with a 2M/2 year take-it-or-leave it offer.

ON GLENCROSS

Lowe

"If his mindset or his agent's mindset is that this is his one kick at really hitting a home run then he's probably going to end up doing it in free agency and not necessarilly with us at this point," Lowe stated.

"It just might work out that he ends up going elsewhere. We certainly have enough bodies here so that's not a concern."

"We like the way he finished the year and we like his enthusiasm. He's a great kid and I think he has upside in his game. But, like I said before, we're piecing a puzzle together and we have higher end guys making more money so we have to find the right number where he can fit into our future and not hurt us in terms of bringing other guys in or retaining other guys."

You have to love this. In all likelihood, Glencross will turn out to be a legitimate NHL player - but every man has a price limit, and every bottom six player is replaceable.

Carefully selected words by Lowe - perhaps to put some heat on the Glencross party.

ON TEAM NEEDS & FREE AGENCY

Lowe

"If we can add to our team by upgrading our scoring and some of our toughness, we have the assets to do it," says Kevin Lowe.

"We don't have to rely on free agency to do it. That doesn't mean we won't be listening or making calls on July 1st."

MacTavish

"When you look at some of the other teams and their situation and our situation there's going to be some very interesting dialogue between us and a couple or three other teams who are looking to shed some salary cap and add some depth," said MacTavish.

Raffi Torres? Jarrett Stoll, whom the Oilers have been mum regarding a contract extension?


ON PITKANEN

Mactavish

Craig MacTavish would love to have another year to evaluate Pitkanen, though, before making a decision. "I think that's fair," started MacTavish. "We had a real good discussion with him in terms of what our expectation was for him and whether he had the willingness to work and change some of the aspects of his game. We're not talking about fundamental changes in his game; we're talking about subtle changes in his game and playing the game more situationally. It's just managing those decisions of when it makes sense for him to jump up in the play and when it doesn't."

Just a possibility - the Oilers were kicking tires about moving Pitkanen, and didn't like the offers.

ON ROLOSON

MacTavish

"It's a difficult situation for a guy like Dwayne who works so hard and puts so much time into being a number one goalie," says Craig MacTavish. "That discussion will be very important in terms of what our direction is with our goaltending. From my perspective, I'd certainly like to have him back."

Does Kevin Lowe?

ON GETTING RESULTS

MacTavish

"Pressure on an NHL head coach. It's business as usual; we'll all be evaluated based on the success that we have. It's a foregone conclusion that if you don't have success for an extended period of time that you'll be looking for elsewhere. That's part of the job. I've lived with it since the day I signed a contract to coach here in Edmonton and I'll be living with it next year. Business as usual from my perspective."

Lowe

"We didn't prove anything. We had a nice 20 odd game run and there's lots of optimism but I do know that when the puck drops next October that it's going to be a grind to make the playoffs."

Saying all the right things. Great quotes in the blog entry by Tencer to chew on.

Doesn't it almost seem as if Craig MacTavish is a co-GM these days?

NHL Spring League?

Would this idea work?

The NBA already has it's summer league, in which teams consist of players who have been in the league for 3 years or less as well as newly drafted youngsters.

Would there be enough interest to watch the Bobby Schremp's or Marc-Antoine Pouliot's in July? Or will hockey fans, including Canadians, scoff at the notion and go back to their regularly scheduled baseball and barbeques?

It's an interesting concept put forth by former GM Mike Barnett. Perhaps the league should be limied to 10 teams, with 3 NHL teams sharing a summer league team. Perhaps venues should be limited to non-NHL cities and change annually, to keep the fan interest intact. Lots of possibilies, and in the sake of prospect development, this notion warrants further consideration.

Playoff Prediction Pool - Stanley Cup Final

Get your picks in!

Anyone is welcome, whether they participated in the previous rounds or not.

TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE FINAL ROUND
20 points for correct team. 40 points for correct team and number of games. 10 points for correct number of games, but wrong team.

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

The competitive standings are calculated below. Please notify if there are any miscalculations.

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
STANLEY CUP FINAL - ROUND #4

My Picks (in bold):

Series A: Detroit vs Pittsburgh - 7 games

Round 3 Results:
PunjabiOil 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
PDO 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+10=20
LittleFury 10+10=20
DeBakey 10+10=20
Jonathan 10+10=20
Paulus 0+20=20
YKOil 20+0=20
doritogrande 0+0=0

Round 2 Results:
JambonDan 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 10+10+20=40
Paulus 20+10=30
doritogrande 10+10+10=30
Jonathan 10+10=20
LittleFury 20
Jon G 20
YKOil 10
PDO 10
DeBakey 0

Round 1 Results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40

Overall Standings after 3 of 4 rounds:
LittleFury 120+20=140
PunjabiOil 110+30=140
JambonDan 130+0=130
YKOil 100+20=120
PDO 90+30=120
MikeP 90+20=110
doritogrande 100+0=100
Mr DeBakey 80+20=100
Jonathan 80+20=100
Paulus 80+20=100
jon 70+0=70
Oilman 50+0=50
Jon G 20