Canucks Set to Win Fabian Brunnstrom Sweepstakes

Overage. Late bloomer. Potential of high reward for the Canucks.

Or, it could end up being nothing more than a utility player like Patrick Thoresen who put up similar numbers at the same age in the SEL

STORY

Jumping on the Habs Bandwagon

OHHLE, OLE OLE OLE....OHHLE...OLE OLE, OLE

The chant heard at Elephant and Castle on Whyte Ave.

And the Bell Centre in Montreal.

HABS FANS CHANT

Time for another Canadian team to make the finals.

I Like The Terms of Gilbert's New Contract

At least more so than I did yesterday.

LOWETIDE & COVERED IN OIL put some sense in me.

Basically, Seabrook doesn't work as a comparison, nor does Tyutin. The 4 UFA seasons given up just can't be minimized. I was also probably wrong on the ''What you see is what you get'' mantra. Numerous examples have been pointed out that this theory is bunk.

One does have a legitimate argument that they should have offered Gilbert a short term deal (1-2 years) and make him earn that next contract. Of course the downside is you may end up paying more down the road, especially if the cap continues to rise. It seems Lowe and MacT feel otherwise, and feel confident in giving Gilbert an extension, despite only 1 full season worth of experience.

Time will tell whether they are right. At the same time, I can see their line of reasoning.

Heavy criticism may not be warranted at this point of time.

Two ''New'' Additions to the Oilogosphere

More readings for the Oilogosphere members.

I recently discovered these 2 high quality blogs. They know their hockey.

COPPER & BLUE

COPPER BLUE DREAMS

Enjoy.

Oilers Cap Situation, As of April 11, 2008

This is Lou Lamoriello. GM of the NJ Devils. In the summer of 2006, he was pressed into cap trouble after the signings of Alexandre Mogilny, Vladimir Malakhov and Dan McGillis the year previously. In the end, he was forced to trade Malakhov and a 1st round pick in exchange for effectively cap space.

Below is the Oilers cap hit, as of today.

FORWARDS

Penner (4.250) - Horcoff (3.600) - Hemsky (4.100)
Nilsson (1.833)- Gagner (1.625) - Cogliano (1.133)
Torres (2.250) - Stoll (RFA) - Pisani (2.500)
Moreau (2.000) - Brodziak (.500) - Stortini (RFA)

In the mix: Glencross (UFA), Reasoner (UFA), Pouliot (RFA)

TOTAL FOR SIGNED PLAYERS: 23.791M
REASONABLE ESTIMATES: Stoll (2.75M), Reasoner (1M), Pouliot (.650M), Glencross (1.6M), Stortini (.600M)
ADJUSTED TOTAL: 30.391M

DEFENCE
Souray (5.400) - Staios (2.700)
Pitkanen (RFA) - Gilbert (4.000)
Smid (0.786) - Grebeshkov (RFA)

Extras: Greene (1.15), Roy (.500)

TOTAL FOR SIGNED PLAYERS: 14.536M
REASONABLE ESTIMATES: Grebeshkov (1.65M), Pitkanen (4.5M)
ADJUSTED TOTAL: 20.686M


GOALTENDERS
Garon (1.1)
Roloson (3.667)

TOTAL FOR SIGNED PLAYERS: 4.767M

TOTAL FOR ENTIRE TEAM WITHOUT CONSIDERATION OF TRADES/BUYOUTS: 55.844M

Cap trouble indeed.

HYPOTHESIS
-One of Torres or Moreau will be traded.
-One of Reasoner, Stoll, Pouliot won't be brought back
-The Oilers may not sign Glencross at that price
-One of Greene/Smid may be moved.
-Pitkanen may indeed be moved if the Oilers don't want to pay him in the neighborhood of 4.5M

Could the Oilers trade say, 2009 1st + Souray for cap space? Should they? Would you?

Details, details...

Also inked today: Rowbear Nilsson: three years, $5.5 million in total.

Nilsson will earn $1.5 million next season and $2 million in each remaining
season.

Really nice deal. The contrast with Gilbert's is interesting and speaks to how much the Oilers value defencemen. That second line of Nilsson, Ganger and Cogliano is made-by-little-kids-in-China cheap.

As for Tom Gilbert's deal, details per TSN are as follows:

Gilbert will earn $3.5 million next season with a $1.5 million signing bonus, $3.5 million in 2009-2010, $5.5 million with a $1.5 million signing bonus in 2010-2011, $5 million in 2011-2012, $3.5 million in 2012-2013, and $3 million in 2013-2014 for a salary cap average of $4 million a season.

I Don't Like The Terms of Tom Gilbert's New Contract

6 years/24M.

Unbelievable. From being one of the most over-performing contracts on the team, things changed.

Quickly.

I love the player. I think he's a player every team would love to lock up for 6 years.

But would every team sign him at these dollars?

This is another Dustin Penner contract. Pay-for-potential that may not otherwise be there. Tom Gilbert is not a 4M defenceman now. He very well maybe down the road, but he also may not be. He's also 25, so perhaps it's a case of what-you-see-is-what-you-get.

He scored a lot of goals - 13 to be exact. However, he boasted a 13.3 Shooting %, one that is highly unlikely to be sustainable over his career. He had 33 points with 2nd unit PP time. Definitely good, but at this age (25), you wonder how much upside there is.

I thought Lowe had the leverage in this negotiation. Gilbert only had 1 year of pro experience. Finding a comparable would be difficult, given Gilbert gives up 4 UFA years. You have to wonder though - whether taking him to arbitration (protecting against RFA offersheets) and a short term deal would have left the Oilers better off. Lets bypass the fact that the Oilers don't take him to arbitration - even if Gilbert received an RFA offersheet this was in the compensation range of 1st, 2nd, 3rd.

Just how many teams would be willing to throw 4.1M to Gilbert AND give up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd?

Lowe had the leverage, and he didn't utilize it.

Just exactly why he's a mediocre/sub-par GM

Above all, this sets a precedence for Joni Pitkanen, who is also 2 years away from unrestricted free agency. A much more proven player (46 and 43 point seasons), more TOI, tougher minutes, and younger than Gilbert. How much does he get? 4.5M? 5M? Or is there truth to the statement that Pitkanen could be on the way out, as speculated by Robin Brownlee and Bob Stauffer?

There are beginning to be too many contracts in the 4-5M range, and you wonder who is going to be pushed out the door when the pending free agents start needing contract extensions.

Perhaps Lowe is counting on a rising salary cap.

Whatever it is, at this point in time, I don't like the contract. Just when I started having faith in Lowe again.

Time for the player and GM to prove me wrong.

Iggy pops

Here's Jarome "Jarmoe" Iginla taking aim at Eric Weinrich of Team U.S.A. during the 2004 World Cup of Hockey. I picked this shot because those mustard yellow 1920 Winnipeg Falcons throwback jerseys are beauties and there's no way in hell I'm putting any Flames shit up here unless it's a picture of Dion Phaneuf suffering a career-ending injury. Fingers crossed.

Anyway, Iginla's a player that's pretty hard to hate. Skilled, tough and, by all accounts, a genuinely nice guy. I watched his performance against the Sharks in Game One of their series last night and he was just dominant. It was the kind of performance that, to me, embodies all the best bits of this game we call hockey. A performance that, as an Oilers partisan, I seldom get treated to.

It probably goes without saying that the Falmes franchise's hopes start and end with Jarome. Me, I hope a few years down the road that he's one of those choices in some T.V. sports gabfest's poll question that asks "who's the best player of his generation to never win a championship?"

The Chance May Never Come Again

Tremendous song. Very motivating. I used to get Goosebumps when CBC used to air this song on day 1 of the playoffs and after the Stanley Cup was awarded.

CBC VIDEO

MP3 DOWNLOAD

There's a dream that lives,
deep in every heart.
Heroes carve their name,
legends leave their mark.
And it's worth the sweat,
and it's worth the pain,
But the chance may never come again....

Give it all you got,
take your best shot.
The fire burns deep inside,
stand above the giants.
Yeah!!!

For the game belongs,
to the swift and the strong.
Though the flame burns bright,
in an instant it's gone.
It's the spirit of the game,
and the legend lives on and on.

But the chance may never come again,
Noooo, nooooo.
The chance may never come again!

Unrestricted Free Agent Signing

PunjabiOil & Company have signed AsiaOil to a contract. More details to follow

Stoll & Torres

EDMONTON JOURNAL

"We have to make some changes. We didn't make the playoffs," Lowe said. "In terms of the overall outlook of the team, we have a lot of forwards and we're going to have some tough decisions. Jarret's going to be in that category ... Raffi had an off year.

"We're going to have to spend a lot of time deciding who's going to be in our top 12. We have a lot of options."

Kevin Lowe - In Happy Times

SLIDESHOW

A season ending interview.

And look at that million dollar smile!

Quotes From Lowe

LOWE'S QUOTES

"Not that we won't look and try to be active, but we won't go into free agency like we did last year, where we knew we had to bring players in," Lowe said Tuesday.

This is obvious.

"If a team comes around, like the situation we were in, which to me was very unique, then yes, absolutely there'll be an RFA offer," he said. "Am I concerned about our RFAs? Not one bit. We have lots of (salary) cap room. We know the players we like. If there was one, we'll match an offer, if we choose to. If we think the offer is too high, we'll let them go and take the picks.

"We're in a great position. We have lots of depth in the organization. Having said all that, we've had positive contract negotiations with all those players, so I don't think it's even going to get there."

I hope Lowe is planning to use team elected arbitration to some of his RFAs (to protect against RFA offersheets) if it gets to that point.

"I think if we'd have stayed healthy, we had a team that would have been in a position to challenge," Lowe said.

Yeah, and Grizzly Adams had a beard.

"Our goal going into the season was to try to make the playoffs, and to also be in a development year. We didn't accomplish the playoffs -- it was a good effort by the boys -- but we had probably our best development year in 12 or 15 years. I can't wait for next year."

Agree.

"We've said that every year and we've had a tough time," Lowe said of moving up in order. "I'd love the opportunity to move up into the top 10.

"We'll see what happens. I think we have the assets to do it. We've built them up over a number of years so, ideally, we'll try to utilize that asset base to improve upon the high-end aspect of our organization."

This is encouraging news for the Oilers. Though it probably does produce a lump in the throats of Schremp fanboys.

"We were ninth, so there's room for improvement," he said. "Depending on what happens with our numbers, if we end up making a package deal to bring in a player, that would be a new player.

I like where this is headed.

"There'll be a lot less changes. You need some continuity. Players need to play with one another for a while. We're in a position to do that now."

Sometimes, the status-quo does indeed beat the alternatives.

MIRTLE AGREES

And in other news, Robin Brownlee provides his connected opinions on Oilersnation

Playoff Predictions - Get Yours In!

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS - ROUND #1

Pretty simple: 10 points for correct team. 20 points for correct team & correct number of games. 0 points for correct number of games, but incorrect team.

No prizes, just Oilogosphere bragging rights.

Playoff pool will be played to the end of the season, teams updated after the completion of each round. Winner will be declared after the Stanley Cup is awarded.

My Picks (in bold):

SERIES A Montreal vs. #8 Boston - 5 games

SERIES B Pittsburgh vs. #7 Ottawa - 6 games.

SERIES C Washington vs. #6 Philadelphia - 7 games

SERIES D #4 New Jersey vs. #5 NY Rangers - 6 games

SERIES E #1 Detroit vs. #8 Nashville - 5 games

SERIES F #2 San Jose vs. #7 Calgary - 5 games

SERIES G #3 Minnesota vs. #6 Colorado - 7 games

SERIES H Anaheim vs. #5 Dallas - 6 games

Robert Nilsson tidbit

Thanks to "Engineer" from HF with link 1 and link 2 and the translation for the articles

Basically, Robert Nilsson is to join Team Sweden on a try-out basis for the World Championships held this May in Canada. The experience certainly can't hurt.

Robert Nilsson is quoted in the second article:

"It's been a blast - the last 20-30 games are the most fun I've had in my hockey life."

Negotiations on a new multi-year deal are expected to begin any day now. "I do not want to play anywhere else but Edmonton, and it would be nice to have the new contract in place before the Worlds."

Jarret Stoll was also quoted the other day:

"I hope things work out because I don't want to leave here. I love playing here. I've enjoyed every second of it. Even through the tough times of this year, it's still fun coming to the rink, being around the guys, playing for fans like Edmonton fans."

Then there are some nice Horcoff quotes in the blog entry below.


Quite a turnaround from previous years - players wanting to play in Edmonton.

That most certainly helps the team going forward, with the developed chemistry.

Or at the very least, can't hurt.

*Ahem*

YOU'RE WELCOME

Shawn Horcoff on the Oilers Recent Success

This is Trail, BC's Shawn Horcoff. My favourite Oiler.

Shawn Horcoff comes across as a great teammate in this article. Truly an ambassador for the youth on this team. Seems like a player who wants to remain an Oiler; despite the fact the Oilers were trying to replace him with a 35 year old Michael Nylander this past summer, and despite the fact the Oilers were publicly questioning his offensive skills at training camp, using Gagner and Cogliano on the top line. His hockey skills are also vastly under-appreciated by a large number of Oiler fans. Shawn Horcoff recently spoke of the Oilers recent success and how he's dealt with it.

"This would have been a lot of worse if they weren't playing as well as they are," Horcoff said. "On the flip side, you know how exciting big games are, that's what you live for."

"But I haven't missed many of the games. It's tougher for me not to watch. I know some guys just can't stand it, and I have tried not watching, but that doesn't work for me," he continued. "I need to know what's going on.

"I have to be at home, and I have a certain seat I sit on … I even try and have the kids in bed because I just want to focus on the game. I am still emotionally attached. I feel like a big part of the team even though I'm not on the ice playing."

There are several options for Lowe:

a) Extend Horcoff for a short term (3 years). Here, the Oilers would have to compensate Horcoff for the lower security. Range: 5.75-6.25M/year.
b) Extend Horcoff for a bit longer (4-7 years). Gives the player long term security. The Oilers would be bearing the risk of injury in the 1 year period prior to the extension begin date. Range: 4.5-5.75M. Inverse relationship between salary and number of years.
c) Do nothing this summer. Shawn Horcoff has another year of his contract remaining. Take a wait and see approach to see how Horcoff rebounds to his pre-surgery state. This possibility also requires the Oilers to bear some risk - should Horcoff perform to the level comparable to last season, his market value will rise as opposed to his market value today. This strategy may eerily follow the footprints of the Ryan Smyth saga - a player playing his way out of an Oiler uniform after the team couldn't settle on an agreement.
d) Fully go prepared into the season with no intention of re-signing Horcoff. Here, you are under the impression that Gagner can handle 20 minutes/night and you will find a cheaper/better replacement for Horcoff in the UFA market in the summer of 2009. This option is so idiotic, I'm not going to waste further time on it.


I'm not really concerned about giving Horcoff a long term contract. He has a strong character, in which you know he will be giving a full effort 82 games + playoffs. He is also one of the fittest NHLers who had up to this point in his career, excluding this season, remained flawlessly healthy. This may be attributed to his strong dedication to off-season training, as this excerpt reads:

Edmonton's Shawn Horcoff has foregone summer vacations for the last four years to take part in Goodman's workouts. He is starting to challenge Chris Chelios for the circuit-training title.

You wonder if his strong dedication/commitment to the game rubbed off in a good way to fellow linemate, Ales Hemsky.

Today's Journal Article sheds some light on Hemsky's recent changes in the off-season:

This was also the first year Hemsky made a commitment to an off-season training program that revolved around hockey specific workouts rather than his usual soccer and roller hockey sessions. The result was a stronger, more explosive player.

Good stuff.

WHAT TO DO? WHAT TO DO?

I was clearly in the (b) camp early on. The shoulder injury at least provokes some question as to whether Lowe should wait until say, November, before extending Horcoff [option (c)]. It will be interesting to see whether Lowe sticks to his original publicly displayed plan of getting Horcoff extended this summer.

Does the shoulder surgery change anything? Should it?

What would YOU do, if you were in Lowe's shoes?

Vancouver Media Tough as Nails

VANCOUVER PROVINCE

You would never see the local media call out Roloson.

IS LUONGO GETTING LAZY?

Coach Alain Vigneault said: "Fatigue is not an issue." Yet some of the recent goals Luongo has allowed may be evidence to contrary.

EXHIBIT 1

On the Avs first goal Tuesday, Luongo went down with the puck and some traffic in front of the net. He ended up on his back. He laboured to get up as the Avs worked the puck down low, behind the net and then back up top to John-Michael Liles who scored.

EXHIBIT 2

On the Avs second goal Tuesday, Paul Stastny was heading toward the crease, and Luongo started bracing for a hit. Luongo admitted later he was "trying to feel contact." Stastny never hit him until the puck was in. But by looking for contact, Luongo took his full attention off Milan Hejduk who scored.

EXHIBIT 3

On the Flames second goal Sunday, Luongo dropped his stick which went into his net. Instead of playing stickless, he turned and reached back to grab it. Bad timing. Jarome Iginla had the puck behind the net, and quickly found Matthew Lombardi who beat Luongo before he even turned back around to face the play.

Oilers Player Awards

RELEASE

Zane Feldman Trophy (MVP) - Ales Hemsky
Most Popular Player - Ales Hemsky
Top First Year Oiler - Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano
Top Defenceman - Tom Gilbert
Community Service Award - Ethan Moreau
Unsung Hero - Steve Staios
Top Defensive Forward - Fernando Pisani

I'd have given the top first year Oiler award to Cogliano (+1, 45 points) outright over Gagner (-20, 49 points).

Unsung hero - my pick would have been Kyle Brodziak.

Horcoff would have won top defensive forward if I had the say.

An Economist's View of The Oilers Recent Success

*click on picture to read the font

The Economist's Argument
-The picks traded to Penner are a "sunk costs." Costs that have been incurred and which cannot be recovered to any significant degree.
-The Oilers, draft wise, are doing themselves harm by winning hockey games because they still own their 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th round draft picks.
-So winning the draft lottery would have been the best case scenario for the Oilers, speaking from a draft standpoint, regardless of the fact Burke would pick at slots 1, 31, 61. Why? Because the Oilers would pick 91, 121, 151, 181 as opposed to the present slots of 102, 132, 162, 192.

The Typical Hockey Fan's Counter-Argument
-Emotionally speaking, it would be very difficult to face the fact the Oilers "sunk cost" would be lottery territory
-Winning now > higher draft picks, emotionally speaking
-Winning today is giving fans the reason for optimism next season.

This argument fits into the broader display of everyday hockey arguments consisting of Statistics/Objectivity/Economics/Science/ vs Emotion/Subjectivity/Human Element.

Examples:
Arena debate, Whether to trade the likes of Smyth, Hemsky, Gagner (fan favourites), debate on the quality of Horcoff's play (Numbers vs Not very aesthetically pleasing to watch which influences perception).

So think. Think hard next time when you're debating. From what grounds are you arguing from? And do those grounds lead you to the best answer?

Follow-up Question:
Is there a hybrid form of line of reasoning?