Oilgasm

Token Blog Entry to remain a going concern

2011-12-30T23:05:00.002-07:00

Blogging standard rules (BSD) require at minimum, 1 post per calendar year to keep the blog to remain a going concern.

The Edmonton Oiler suck. It's a long-haul rebuild, and are not worth the labour (man-hours) I already devote to watching and following the team, let alone expanding resources to blog about them.

I highly endorse Lowetide, Jonathan Willis, Coppernblue, and Oilersnation for all your Oilers needs.

In the meantime, I'll finish this token blog entry. Will revisit in the summer whether to expand more resources on these inept losers.

Have a wonderful 2012.

PunjabiOil

Not all doom and gloom

2010-01-14T12:41:00.002-07:00

When you cheer for the Oilers, its hard to remember that there's some good in this world. Here's a lovely story from out of Philadelphia about ex-Oiler property Danny Syveret.

Halfway Home

2010-01-12T15:39:00.006-07:00

“Skins” is a fantastic show and TV on the Radio is a helluva band, so the combination here is a big winner for me.

You know who’s not a big winner? The Oilers. Halfway through the season and things are even worse than anyone could have imagined before the start of the year. Many of us expected suck, but I don’t know how many people could have predicted that we’d be staring at a possible 15th place finish in the West. There’s been injuries of course (notably to Ales Hemsky and perennially injured and extremely expensive free agent signing Nikolai Khabibulin), and some terrible performances (thanks, Horcoff) but for the most part the problem is the same as it always was: not enough good hockey players.

Of course, the shitshow that has been the 09-10 Oilers season has a potential silver lining in a top pick in next year’s draft. Of course its our luck that the best chance ever for the Oilers to bring a superstar in through the draft comes in a year where the top prospects are good (but not great) and the rest of the field is kinda whatever. And of course the Oilers have another 44 games in which to fuck that up as well. Let’s hope they do at least one thing right this year and that’s keep on doing what they do best: lose.

The second half starts tonight against the Music City Pussycats. Don't bother watching.

10 RANDOM MUSINGS

2009-09-13T02:47:00.009-06:00

1. I'll try to blog more often this season. The past year was dedicated for working towards a professional designation. 12-13 hour work/study days on a regular basis has the capability to mentally exhaust you; but as a man once told me, 'It's not about how hard you can hit – it's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving FORWARD."

2. Jonathan Willis discusses Patrick LaForge using textbook EIG scare tactics with regards to the new arena movement. No bombshell here. Today the Oilers are losing a substantial amount of money, not much different from the publicized documented position that 'a lower salary cap would mean the world,' held back in 2007. Apparently contributing into the revenue sharing pool [Top 10 in league revenues] and receiving a massive public subsidy from taxpayers on the annual lease, still generates a loss. Hamilton Oilers has a nice ring to it, no?

3. On the topic of Willis, congrats with the new position at TheScore. Hard work usually gets noticed.

4. The lack of interest in Alex Tanguay was baffling at that cap hit. One of the biggest issues for the Oilers has been not acquiring enough value players who have the ability to outperform their contracts. These types of guys are available every off-season. Players like Ray Whitney (1.5M) and Curtin Glencross (1.2M) whom publicly have expressed interest in playing for the Oilers in prior years were largely ignored in order to divert powerful efforts to obtain a high profile player (Read: Hossa, Jagr). This off-season, Blair Betts, Robert Lang and Martin Biron (1.4M) are/were available players but the Oilers management has been more interested in exhausting efforts for the big fish (Khabibulin, Heatley). Once they strike out on an otherwise annual basis, little is done going forward to address team needs.

I question management's "all or nothing" approach. The results in the past three seasons seem to support this sentiment.

5. Lowetide appears confident the Oilers will make a trade during training camp. That should be the case; however, trading Kyle Brodziak, a type of player the Oilers needed more of, for late-round draft picks, doesn't inspire much confidence in management's ability to address team needs (namely, a third line centre). There has been talk for the past three years that the Oilers will address needs at the trade deadline, but by then the Oilers are typically on the wrong side of the Western Conference Standings.

6. Jason "YOU ARE WRONG" Gregor :) indicates the interest was generally coming out from Comrie's camp. I'm not surprised by this notion – in interviews over the past years, Comrie has hinted regret in the way the whole situation went down. The signing from a personal standpoint is generally positive, given the association with those late 90's, early 00's, Oiler hockey clubs. Playing in a hockey crazed market that is Edmonton may also allow Comrie to focus more on the on-ice efforts. The benefits of this contract may be limited (depth scoring, and proper local boy story closure), but the terms of the agreement present negligible risk to the Oilers.

It will be interesting whether or not the Oilers or Comrie will consider an extension if everything works out as hoped. Comrie and Duff are not married at this point, and 8 months is quite different from 8 years.

7. Jason Strudwick's perceived unexplainable raise could at least partially be explained by the fact his contract stipulates endorsing a new arena.

"I'm an Edmontonian and I think it's a great thing for the city," said Jason Strudwick, a day after Oilers owner Daryl Katz announced plans for a new downtown arena. "It will continue the revitalization of downtown that we have to keep pushing. We want to have a good, vibrant downtown."

The Blue Jackets have a brilliant downtown rink with an adjacent practice facility in the middle of an arena district that really comes to life on game night. Players enjoy playing there and on 41 home dates a year, it's not just a game, but a game-night experience.

"Everyone who sees that from other teams loves it," said Strudwick, adding an adjacent practice facility is always popular with players, who hate having to pack up and move across town to a practice rink every time a concert comes to the arena. "This would be easier. I think it's great, I hope more teams do that, it just makes more sense.

One could argue Pisani's contract contains a similar stipulation. One also wonders whether Pisani's quote is indicative of early retirement plans or intent to assess the UFA market come July 2010.

"I think it's going to be awesome, it'll bring a lot of life to downtown Edmonton," said Pisani. "It'll be something to see. Obviously I probably won't be around to see it (as an Oiler) but it'll be something cool to see.

"People will be excited to come to the rink. Take the busses, hang around the restaurants, have a few drinks and enjoy it."

8. The HF crowd vociferously maintained a FIRE MACT mantra throughout last year. While I wasn't all that raucous, there were strong indicators suggesting a need for a change.

a. Employee [read: players] morale was at a low all season and tense lingered throughout the dressing room, with whispers of Souray and Hemsky [Journal Article 'turning me into checkers] requesting trades
b. Instead of utilizing the positive reinforcement approach, MacT relegated himself to questionable public outbursts [Penner, Nilsson, Schremp], which even if true, did little to improve the situation and most certainly caused him to lose the room. Quotes throughout the post-firing stage have indicated little support for the now ex-coach of the Edmonton Oilers.
c. Most importantly, Craig MacTavish cannot run a powerplay. This has not changed in the decade he was here. When players are not played to their strengths [Penner & Hemsky's PP TOI] and the strategy is predictable to an extent that it is detrimental to production [i.e. Deliver the puck to Souray for low percentage shots], retaining the status quo no longer remains an option.

It could be argued the hiring of the new coaching staff was the best single transaction this summer. Not overly sure that this is a good thing.

9. There are a number of prospects in the system to possibly be excited about [MPS, Eberle, Nash, Omark, Plante, Chorney, Petry, Hartkinen, Lander]. Of course a similar song was sung half a decade ago [Schremp, Pouliot, Tesluik, Woywitka, JDD, Dragon U., etc.]. Many from the former list will company the latter after prom day.

10. Shawn Horcoff. Patrick O'Sullivan. Ales Hemsky. Dustin Penner. Andrew Cogliano. Sam Gagner. Robert Nilsson. Mike Comrie. All of these players took steps back in gross offensive production [pts.] in 2008-2009. How many of these will were underachievers and how many were just not very good hockey players?

It could be reasonably argued only Nilsson and possibly Comrie would be apt illustrations of the latter. Improved production from the remaining players at no cost on the defensive side of the game could theoretically push the Oilers towards a playoff spot.

_________
Like others in minion country, I have purchased tickets for a few games this year. One of them includes 'Boo Dany Healtey' night. GOILERS.

Can get enough of that wonderful Duff.

2009-09-10T14:34:00.003-06:00

Hope you can learn to love freezing your tits off in January in Edmonton, Hils.

DARYL KATZ PITCHES OFFER TO THE SHARKS

2009-09-09T03:50:00.007-06:00

Note: Defer reading the following if you have not seen the show Shark Tank [American Version of Dragon's Den - a business financing show].

Narrator: Daryl Katz is a philanthropist and a wealthy pharmacy tycoon. He purchased the Edmonton Oilers, a team in the NHL, in July 2008. He now pitches an offer to the sharks for financing of a new arena and corresponding downtown development in Edmonton, Alberta.

Daryl: "Good evening sharks! I am requesting $500 million for a 49% share in the downtown Edmonton revitalization project."

Sharks [in unison]: "Whoa."

Daryl: "You will be rewarded through incremental game-day and luxury box revenues alongside royalties generated from a sequence of chain restaurants and a diversity of dollar stores."

Robert: "Daryl, my acquaintance Terry Jones has vociferously made references to your lack of integrity with respect to your unreceptive, hostile takeover of the Edmonton Oilers. It is also my understanding that you are at this point today following unsuccessful attempts to extract financing from the taxpayers of Alberta. I simply cannot conduct commerce with someone who intentionally takes advantage of others. You declare to be a philanthropist – I volubly do not subscribe to this theory. I'm out."

Kevin O'Leary: "Robert, Robert, Robert! What absurd rubbish are you spewing? The first rule in business is MAKE MONEY! If taking advantage of minion hockey enthusiasts achieves it, then he performed it to perfection.

Now Daryl, whether you are a philanthropist or not, and whether downtown Edmonton is revitalized or not, these items are of nominal concern to me. My only concern lies in how will this make money! As a multi-billionaire, you have the financing available, which raises a huge red flag regarding the profitability of this venture. I principally suspect you will not make money, and for that reason, and that reason only, I'm out."

Barbara: "I adore your hair Daryl. I truly do. But I did observe that you covet to retain 51% ownership. All men desire control!
This won't change, and nor will my position. I'm out."

Daymond: "Daryl, you indicated that we would collect a payback on our investment through royalties from high-class Chain restaurants. I strongly question the degree of these royalties in working class Alberta, where patrons of these sporting and entertainment events are exceedingly representative of the infamous "donair-on-the-way" crowd. While you are truthful there is potential in the dollar stores division, the margins will be too low to allow timely payback. You seem like a first-rate guy and I wish you the best in your future endeavours. I'm out."

Kevin Harrington: "Daryl, I have a wealth of experiencing in marketing. What you are lacking is a visual image to taxpayers! You haven't shown your face to the public at large in over 2 years – the taxpayers can't tell apart Batman from Joker! Now, the risk of this commitment does not coincide with my risk tolerance level, and for that reason I'm out. However, I would willingly accept a marketing figurehead role in your anticipated future pitches, be it for public or private financing.

[Daryl walks out in painful distress]

Daryl [Backstage]: "I really thought I delivered a sturdy pitch. I would like pledge that this project is by far from over. As my good associate, Kevin Lowe, always says, "Expect the Unexpected"

Bullets from a gun

2009-09-01T19:29:00.002-06:00

If you can only read one drunken rant this off season, make it Showerhead's drunken rant at IOF.

The recent pseudo-announcement on the new arena-cum-Daryl Katz's den of debauchery and two for one appetizers on Tuesdays has drawn Andy Grabia out of his long self-imposed exile over at the BOA.

The CinO boys make it official and not in the good, gay way.

And otherwise smart people continue to talk about Rob Schremp for some reason.

Edmonton Oilers 2009-10 season preview

2009-08-18T21:27:00.001-06:00

START JASON MAAS

2009-07-16T22:02:00.003-06:00

No time to post until September 2009

2009-04-21T23:27:00.000-06:00

With that said, I leave you with this.

Speaking of...

2009-03-16T16:14:00.003-06:00

Am I alone in finding the fact that Rhianna is a spokesperson for Cover Girl makeup to be kinda hilarious? I guess if anyone can vouch for the effectiveness of their concealer, its her.

Speaking of beatings, peep this scrap between Tampa Bay behemoth Evgeny Artyukhin (6'5", 254 lbs) and lil' Panther Ville Peltonen (5'11", 182 lbs).

That could have been a lot uglier than it was. And speaking of ugly: how 'bout them Oilers? I don't know if there's ever been a duller stretch run with the team still in the mix. I'd like to think tomorrow's meeting with the hard charging St. Louis Blues (7-3-0) is a make or break game that will go a long way to determining the Oilers' ultimate fate, but I'm more inclined to think they'll continue bumbling along until Game 82, at which point they'll have stumbled into a playoff spot or have been edged out by a team that actually gives a shit.

Brad Humphrey's lastest article

2009-03-15T20:13:00.001-06:00

Great article by Brad Humphrey's and Dennis Coates.

http://www.cato.org/pubs/briefs/bp89.pdf

Here comes the rumour mill

2009-02-27T14:53:00.004-07:00

A couple of Oilers-realted tidbits this afternoon as we head into the last weekend before the Trade deadline.

TSN's Scott Cullen has this on the Erik Cole saga:

According to the Columbus Dispatch, the Oilers aren't going to move RW Erik Cole at the trade deadline. A curious decision, if it's true.

I don't think the Oilers should trade Cole just for the sake of trading him so they don't lose him for nothing. That said, the team has looked lifeless in it's last two outings and if they get the right offer, nothing should be off the table. Which brings me to this:

Even if a deal seems less likely with Florida in playoff position, the Panthers reportedly will consider offers for D Jay Bouwmeester, but would require more than just prospects and picks to make such a deal. The Buffalo News says that the asking price is a top-four defenceman and a veteran forward that can be sold to the Florida fan base (and help the Panthers make the playoffs this season).

There you go. Cole and Souray. Wham, bam thank you ma'am. Souray has been a stalwart this year, a pleasant surprise, but he's getting on in years, has a history of injuries and eating a ton of cap space. Downside: he has a NTC and likes it out west. Failing that, TambLowe could dangle Gilbert or Grebs. Hell, throw in Staios to sweeten the pot. Dare to dream...

2009-02-24T13:56:00.003-07:00

Jonathan Willis has a post up at Oilers Nation declaring the Oilers must be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline. Willis’s logic is that, since the Oilers would be certain road kill even if they do squeak into the post season, they might as well take the opportunity to dump some contracts and reload for next year. He identifies four players to ship out: Cole, Staios, Moreau and Rob Schremp, as well as a few guys on the bubble (Penner, Nilsson, one of the big names on D). In exchange, the Oilers would get prospects and picks, as well as a third-line centre. In closing, Willis has this to say:

In the big picture, it’s far better to jeopardize a playoff spot now than it is to risk this team’s ability to contend over the next few seasons.

I have a lot of respect for J-Dub, and can see the logic here. The Oilers are a third tier team and would need a miracle just to make it past the opening round. They have a boatload of overpriced contracts that need to go to make way for the raises earmarked for the kids (although, given the declining cap, their performances this year, and barring a major leap forward next year, I have to wonder what kind of raises Ganger, Cogliano et al can reasonably expect to get) and to patch the holes that riddle the lineup. I get it. I do. I believe it.

But I can’t endorse it.

In a race as tight as that in the Western Conference, it’s probably a forgone conclusion that giving up as many as three veteran roster players (even if two of them are kinda shitty) would negatively impact the team chances of making the cut. I actually don’t think the choice between playoffs this year and future success is as stark as Willis makes it out to be and it’s entirely possible that the Oilers could make the moves he suggests and still make the playoffs, though I don’t think it’s that probable (most of the assets Willis puts on the market probably wouldn’t bring that much value back, but that’s a topic for another time.) To me, just making the playoffs this year is a necessary step for two reasons.

Experience. Yeah, it’s unquantifiable, but I can’t see how first hand exposure to playoff hockey wouldn’t be beneficial to the Oilers’ young guns and contribute to the ability to contend over the next few seasons. Of course, it’s hard to say just how much a difference it would make, so I don’t wish to overstate the importance of this factor. No, there’s a much more important reason for the Oilers try to make the postseason this year:

It’s been two fucking years out of the dance and I, the fan, am getting pretty sick of missing out. Now, I’m not your typical Oilers fan with an enormous sense of entitlement: I recognize I’m owed nothing, but all the same it’s hard to stomach putting in an (admittedly ever-diminishing) amount of energy and emotional investment and receiving nothing in return. A playoff appearance, as brief as it would no doubt prove to be, would be a first step to making amends for the last three seasons of futility. Some might say a playoff appearance would actually be a negative thing in that it would serve to shore up the erratic and borderline incompetent bunch behind the bench and in the front office. And I can see that view as well. But I challenge any fan to look me in the eye and tell me that the euphoria of an Oilers win on home ice in the playoffs wouldn’t erase those fears, even if just for a moment. Fandom is essentially an irrational, emotional exercise and while it’s perfectly logical to look after the long term interests and accept pain now in service of a bigger emotional reward down the road, sometimes logic needs to shut the fuck up.

Me want playoff hockey. Period.

Best Supporting Actress

2009-02-22T23:43:00.002-07:00

Jagr?

2009-02-10T11:56:00.004-07:00

Per David Staples:

A source close to Czech hockey ace Jaromir Jagr says that Jagr is close to finalizing negotiations with the Edmonton Oilers, reports Euro-hockey expert Peter Adler.

The source would not say when Jagr would report to Edmonton, how much he would be paid, or how long he would sign for. Jagr is now playing with Omsk in the financially-troubled Kontinental Hockey League.

With news that Lubomir Visnovsky will be out for the season with an injury, the Oilers now have several million dollars free to spend under the salary cap.

I'll believe it when I see it.

UPDATE: Never mind.

Growing pains

2009-02-03T14:22:00.003-07:00

Strange things are afoot in Oilerville these days.

Coming off the heels of the now-infamous 10-2 drubbing by the Blackhawks and a listless 2-1 decision to the Music City Maniacs, it was reported that MacT bag-skated Penner, Pouliot and Brodziak. Or maybe he didn't. Depends who you ask. On the interwebs, the natives are getting restless. Jonathan Willis wants MacT's head. Lowetide is frustrated. And over on the boards...well, it hasn't come to bloodshed yet, but that might change with an Oilers loss tonight.

Speaking for myself, I'm on the fence. I've said before that I'm not nearly as invested in this team as I once was, but I've seen plenty of shit efforts this year and they still piss me off. I certainly agree with Tyler's theory that the Oilers' brass seems a helluva lot more concerned with protecting their image than attending to the many issues with the on-ice product.

That product has been wildly inconsistent, often unwatchable and frustrating as fuck. They have one veteran centre, one decent offensive line, a whole whack of kids, a shitload of bloated contracts and a 300 year-old starting goalie. Despite all this, they are also in the midst of the fight for a playoff spot.

So the question is, what to do? Everybody with a brain knows this team wasn't built with this year in mind, but for two, three years down the road. If you look at a lot of the moves this year, even the more puzzling ones make a bit more sense. If there's a time for tinkering and seeing what's worth keeping it's now. That the team has done that and still stayed in the hunt is just gravy.

But history has shown that management can oscillate between "win now" and "build for later" five times in the time it takes Kevin Lowe to wake up, shit, shower, shave and get out the door every morning and a lot will depend on whether they stay the course with the group they have or try to force the issue in response to fan grumbling.

I think they stick to their guns. The team is in the playoff hunt and has improved on last year. Fan grumbling doesn't mean squat until they stop showing up and for every one who bails because they won't be seeing Rob Schremp guzzling Moet out of Lord Stanley's mug, there's another two or three ~~suckers~~ customers to take their place. On the flip side, that kind of complacency and satisfaction with mediocrity in the service of profitability leads to icing a squad with big holes (ie. every K-Lowe team since the lockout) with no guarantee they'll be filled in time.

My hope is they keep their heads above water over the next 15 or so that they can deal some assets for a little help at the deadline and make a real charge for the playoffs. I don't expect much more than a first round defeat, but it'd set the stage for a nice off season. Deal some deadwood (Staios, Moreau), pick up a veteran or two for the bottom six. I don't see a UFA home run happening, which is fine. Ideally, next year's Oilers will be a bit older, a lot wiser and focused on making a run. That's not a heck of a lot to ask, I don't think, and it would certainly make teh growing pains worthwhile.

MISLEADING

2009-01-24T09:56:00.003-07:00

From a recent Jim Matheson article:

Cross their fingers -- The Islanders are on track for the league's worst record and a shot at centre John Tavares, the world junior hockey championship MVP. They'll have to be lucky, though, because finishing dead last only gives them a 25-per-cent chance of coming up first in the bingo-ball draft lottery.

As all non-playoff teams (14 in total) are entered in the lottery, and the fact each team can move up only four spots, the Islanders will have approximately a 50% chance in obtaining the rights to John Tavares.

Hey now, you're an all-star

2009-01-21T13:02:00.004-07:00

Ales Hemsky isn't going to the NHL All Star bash this weekend, but it's become impossible to argue that number 83 doesn't belong in the upper echelon of talents in the league. He's taken this team by the scruff of the neck and dragged them into a nice 6th place spot in the division going into the break. He's in the top 10 in the league for points/game and he's on track for an 80 point campaign. The kid has arrived.
...
I'm looking forward to the part in the Oilers 2009 Stanley Cup DVD where the Hall and Oates game against Phoenix gets referenced as the turning point.
...
Yeah, it's been a good week. The Oil are sitting pretty and the Bush era is over down south. Think I'll celebrate:

NHL Television Audiences as at mid-season

2009-01-20T21:51:00.003-07:00

William Houston, a respected journalist, writes one of his final columns for the Globe and Mail. He recently accepted a buyout - a sign of the impending collapse of the newspaper business.

Some snippets:

TSN's average viewership is up 17 per cent from last year to 481,000 a game.

Versus in the United States is averaging 308,695, a rise of 18 per cent.

And the CBC, despite losing three Toronto Maple Leafs telecasts in its new NHL deal, is drawing prime-time audiences that are up 4 per cent from last year, to 1.206 million a game.

REGIONAL

Regional audiences on Rogers Sportsnet also reflect team performances. The Leafs' average of 321,000 is down 22 per cent from last year. Audiences for another losing team, the Senators, have dropped 33 per cent, to 67,000 a game.

Numbers for the Vancouver Canucks are down 8 per cent (227,000 viewers). For the Flames (135,000) and Oilers (146,000), audiences are up 15 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.

Inter Milan to play in Edmonton?1?!?

2009-01-14T21:44:00.001-07:00

I nearly had an Oilgasm when I read this story in the Edmonton Journal this morning.

FIRE LEMAIRE!!!!!!!!

2008-12-29T02:47:00.002-07:00

What an idiot.

His team has only won 2 in their last 10. They're in LAST PLACE in the division right now. He can't develop youth (Koivu? Who the **** is that anyway?). His team just can't win the big game. Again - LAST PLACE IN THE DIVISION! What the **** is wrong with this team? Clearly he's lost the dressing room. He overplays pluggers all over the place. Andrew Brunette on the PP? WTF? That's not even getting into Benoit Pouliot. Who the hell does he think he is, Brunette? I mean, the guy has 5 ****ing goals this year and he keeps getting ice time.

This is just unforgivable.

As a closet Wild fan, I am beyond disgusted. If this team had a real coach, one who could coach youth and fire up the troops while playing a system I can understand while drinking a 6 pack... well THEN they would be leading the division.

.....

Now, how many of you would agree with that?

... now, go back, and sub the word "Lemaire" for "MacT" and "Wild" for "Oilers."

I'm not saying, but I'm just saying.

Merry Crosby to all and to all a Crosby night. Crosby!

2008-12-23T16:04:00.003-07:00

Via the pervs at Four Habs Fans, here's Sidney Crosby giving wickedly-named Atlanta Thrasher Boris Valabik a little something I like to call "the stocking stuffer."

Have a merry Christmas, a happy Hanukkah, a kwaazy Kwanza, a tip-top Tet, and a solemn, dignified, Ramadan.

2008-12-17T15:15:00.002-07:00

I was all set yesterday to write a snarky post this morning about Trevor Linden night here in Vancouver. Linden was a class act for a lot of years, but he never won a thing and he certainly will never be counted in the pantheon of All-time greats. Yet he’s a god among men around these parts, which says a lot about the kind of teams that have come and gone out here on the west coast.

But I can’t muster much snark for the Canucks after last night’s back alley abortion at Rexall. The whole thing reminded me of playing NHL ’94 on the Genesis back when Roenick was an unstoppable, pixelated force and the Oilers were absolute garbage (I think the top line had Klima and Ciger on it). Last night Joel Q. and the boys were playing the computer with the offsides turned off.

Kane and Toews (anybody know if he’s related to author and fellow Manitoban Miriam?) are for real, certainly more so than the young “talent” the Oilers are mustering. I took a lot of shit at HF last year for saying in one of my frequent fits of pique that Ganger is going to top out as a second liner, but he’s making me look like Nostra-fucking-damus thus far this season. Seems to me that if you’re going to run with as many infants as the Oilers are this year either they need to be world-class talents or have a veteran supporting cast that can mask the folly of youth. Edmonton has neither and the results pretty much bear that out.

Getting the message across via media

2008-12-16T16:53:00.003-07:00

Interesting words being channeled through the media in recent weeks.

RILEY NASH

Bolting college early for fat pro paychecks is the preferred option for many top draft picks.

It's also one that Nash wants to leave hanging for now.

"It's a tough answer," Nash said. "I'm not going to go just when they (the Oilers) ask me to go. I don't feel I need to go and bounce around in the minors for a few years. Cornell is a nice place to be."

KEVIN PRENDERGAST

"Was I surprised he didn't make it? Not really," said Prendergast. "He was a longshot. They've got (John) Tavares and (Zach) Boychuk as their top two guys, and could move (Angelo) Esposito. Riley can't play the wing.

"Riley had a good second day of camp, but was ordinary in the other ones and you can't have that at a short camp. Not playing enough games at Cornell hurts him."

It's no secret the Oilers feel Nash isn't progressing at Cornell. They don't feel that school plays enough games (Nash has played in only eight so far this season), but even if Nash were to leave after his sophomore season, putting him in the American Hockey League for a short time for a trial-run might not work, either. He's pretty slight.

KEVIN PRENDERGAST - ONE MONTH AGO

The Oilers' slippery situation

Different NHL teams have varying opinions on NCAA hockey, but it's safe to say that all prefer one aspect of the Canadian junior leagues -- the amount of games they play.

In the NCAA, teams generally play in the neighborhood of 35-40 games, though Ivy League schools can end up playing as few as 31. The three major Canadian junior leagues play 68-72 games in the regular season, plus a more expansive playoff system.

That's why the Oilers say they are essentially making the best of a not-so-ideal situation.

"Given the amount of games that Cornell plays, and there's not a lot of high-end games on the weekend, there has to be consistency," said Kevin Prendergast, Edmonton's assistant general manager. "It's a mental thing. He's got to be the best he can be every week. He's got tremendous hockey sense -- it's one of the reasons we drafted him. But there are things that go with that, and we've had a long talk with him about that."

Such as the aforementioned consistency and physical development, which the team has emphasized.

But Prendergast said the issue of where Nash is playing isn't something he harps on. In fact, Big Red coach Mike Schafer said that members of the Oilers organization he's talked to are "ecstatic" with Nash's development.

"You know, it's his decision," said Prendergast, who added he's "happy" with Nash's progress. "We'll back him up whatever he decides to do. ... We're not going to interfere with education. If that's the route he wants to go, we're prepared to wait. But if he decides to stay at Cornell, we're going to do everything we can to make him a better hockey player while he's there."

It will be interesting how this plays out. While going the education route is admirable, these are key years in his development stage. I can see the Oilers position.

Your thoughts?

Hockey!

2008-12-03T23:42:00.003-07:00

Canadian Polar Bears enjoying the fabric of Canadian culture

William Houston reports that the NHL is cherishing exceptional numbers North of the 49.

Two months into the NHL season, national audiences for hockey telecasts in Canada have shown considerable increases.

At the CBC, the Hockey Night in Canada viewership has grown in all time slots, with the pregame show making the largest gain. It's averaging 527,000 viewers, for an increase of 56 per cent over last year.

The Game 1 audience is 1.348 million, up 13 per cent.

Game 2's 763,000 is 19 per cent higher than last year.

The late night wrap-up, After Hours, is watched by 281,000 for an increase of 53 per cent.

TSN's NHL telecasts have an average audience of 496,000 viewers, up 21 per cent from last year.

RDS is averaging 773,000 viewers for Montreal Canadiens games, available nationally, up 21 per cent.

EDMONTON >>> CALGARY

Audiences for the Calgary Flames (130,000) and Edmonton Oilers (145,000) are up 11 and 29 per cent respectively.

Any theories for such spikes?

Enquiring minds would like to know.

Gloria in excelsis Deo

2008-12-03T11:43:00.004-07:00

“For unto us a Schremp is born, unto us a son is given: and the team shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Hockey Jesus, Sugartits, Robimus Prime, The everlasting speedo, The Prince of Popcorn.” - Isaiah 9:6

BONUS: Great moments in speed reading

I was over at OilerNation reading Brownlee's game day article on Schremp Year Zero and came across this bit that seems lifted straight out of a gay porno script:

Sitting with a big dip in his mouth, Schremp and I talked about this being the right time for him. He was almost at ease.

Um...okay.

Is your blog on the sidebar links?

2008-11-28T19:57:00.001-07:00

If not, please inform us immediately and you will be added.

Cheers

Everything hits at once

2008-11-27T15:36:00.000-07:00

For the past few years, I would have considered myself a soft supporter of Craig MacTavish’s work behind the Oilers’ bench. The man has never run a PP to save his life, but he’s got a good hockey head on his shoulders and has done as well as can be expected with the crap he’s had to work with during his tenure, so I’ve been willing to give him some slack.

Well, that shit is over as of now.

That the Oilers aren’t getting results is one thing. I’m used to that, I can take it. That they don’t seem to give a shit out there is a whole different story. I’m here to be entertained, goddamnit, not watch a bunch of guys making millions of dollars half-ass their way through another dull, mistake-filled loss to some mediocre club like Columbus, Toronto or L.A. I watched a good chunk of the game prior to last night’s shit show against the Kings (a 3-1 Montreal win over Detroit) and saw two strong skating teams shooting the puck, great goaltending, playing disciplined and sound positional hockey. Thirty minutes later, as Denis Grebeshkov nonchalantly poked the puck on to the stick of Anze Kopitar for the King’s first goal, net, the line separating the contenders from the pretenders couldn’t have been clearer. These goldbricking, slack-ass motherfuckers just don’t give a rip.

Granted this team isn’t exactly underperforming. Despite the early season hype, this was always a team that needed everyone to play to their full potential just to have a hope of contending for the NW title. Instead, damn near everything that could have gone wrong has. The veterans have struggled (notably Horcoff and offseason pick up Erik Cole), the kids look completely lost (Brodziak is stuck in the PB, Ganger is drowning and does Nilsson even play for this team anymore?) and the goaltending…sheeeeeiiiiit. A lot of this was probably foreseeable, but that doesn’t make it any easier to swallow, especially coupled with the aforementioned lack of effort.

Something’s gotta give. MacT, it’s been widely observed, looks and sounds like man in the late stages of a terminal disease who is willing to try any treatment, no matter how radical (putting Smid on the wing, say), to save his ass. But you’d have a better chance of curing cancer by eating the pituitary glands of Mexican orphans than winning games with the effort these dinks are putting out there. Obviously, not all that is going to be on the coach but it sure looks like a group that’s either tuned the gaffer out or is just not responding well to his methods. Something’s gotta give.

Tying a can to the coach at this point is probably the best option for a short term boost. The team is close enough to .500 that they can see daylight, but not so comfortable that another three or four losses in their next five won’t fuck them good and proper come spring. Time is not on our side here. If nothing else, firing MacT would go a long way towards settling the debate over whether the problem was him or the players, and that alone makes it a worthwhile experiment to try.

MacT gives you wings

2008-11-20T16:23:00.004-07:00

Above: Erstwhile defenseman Ladislav Smid shares a prescient Red Bull with former Oilers goalie Mathieu Garon during happier times.

In a bid to add some jam to the toast that is his forward lineup, MacT has pulled the surprising move of sending d-man Ladi Smid to the wing for tonight's game against the ~~Failing Big Three automakers~~ Red Wings. In some circles this move is being looked at as the latest sign that the gaffer has lost the plot and/or his marbles. But I think people are forgetting that MacT has a track record of success when it comes to playing guys out of their natural position:

Ladies and gents, I give you Toby Petersen, former Oilers stalwart who moved from his natural position in the pressbox to the blueline, filling the key role of "warm body" on a injury depleted team back in '89 or something.

This Smid thing is a little different in that the Oilers' training room doesn't currently look like the triage ward in M*A*S*H, so it's not a move born out of necessity. Personally, I like it. It makes sense when you consider he'll be seeing limited minutes on the fourth line and will be looked to to provide some size and defensive zone awareness, so it's pretty low-risk/low-reward. Now, some may chirp that the Oilers should bring up a forward like "Creme" Brule or The Bust Formerly Known As Rob Schremp, but the ongoing three goalie situation has limited the team's options in that regard. Smid has grown on me with his calm and willingness to make his opponents smell his gloves after the whistle. But what I really like about this is it's abject lunacy. Either MacT is convinced it'll work, he's gone insane or he's flipping the bird to the management team. Whatever, the reason, I can't wait to see it. Oh wait: it's another fucking PPV. Er...nevermind. GOil.

Losing My Religion

2008-11-13T22:54:00.004-07:00

Yawn. Another night, another Oilers loss. I dunno, I've been spending some time reading through the gameday threads at LT's and it's like Groundhog Day over there every fuckin' night: "the underlying numbers are good, this team is fun to watch...whoops they fucking lost again."

Maybe I'm missing something here, but how is this team any different from every other sad sack bunch of dinks we've seen sporting the Drop over the past, I dunno, 15 years? Better question: when was the last time it was actually fun to be an Oilers fan? April 2006? May 1990? Nineteen-fucking-eighty-four?

Ain't fun the point?

It's probably easier for those lucky/miserable sods back in Edmonton who are-ahem-covered in Oil. If you can't just flick on the TV or mosey down to your local and catch a game, fandom requires a bit more effort and commitment, more than most busy 30-somethings with jobs, girlfriends, interests etc can probably squeeze in.

Example: Tonight I went for a nice dinner and a couple of drinks before coming home and flicking on Sportsnet's ticker to see the score, which reminded me what a good decision it was not to crouch in front of the computer and squint at a shitty little streaming video feed, or make the trek across the creek to the expat bar for the game. Not that I needed it, because nothing I've seen or heard from this team so far has convinced me they are worthy of more than a dilettante's passing interest. In short: I'm having a few commitment issues around this team right now.

I wish it were otherwise. I would like to believe, but these peckers are making it difficult with their up and down routine, the three-headed goalie monster, the plucking psychos off the waiver wire, the continued mediocrity of guys like Horcoff and the gallingly decent play of personal whipping boys Souray and Moreau. Etcetera, etcetera.

Don't get me wrong: this is not a cri de coeur or a letter of resignation à la Berry and Winters. I'm just a little frustrated by the fact that it doesn't seem to matter who steps on stage with these guys: the song remains the same.

Old friend, Joffrey Lupul, in Hot Water

2008-11-10T23:41:00.003-07:00

So reports Tim Panaccio

Joffrey Lupul is pretty much beside himself, after getting dropped to the fourth line at today's pratice.

The thing both myself and Tim Saunders of WIP noticed about Lupes is that when he is not being physical on the ice and not hitting, his game is off. He admitted much when I asked about his mere 13 hits in as many games this season vs. 34 in 13 games from a year ago.

But the look of frustration on his face both on and off the ice today convinces me that he is very unhappy with this move even though he said to us, the he would "suck it up."

“I’ve been up and down,” Lupul told me today. “Some games I didn’t play as well as I could. It’s different playing 12-13 minutes than 20. I’ve got to simplify my game. When I’m out there, maybe play a more physical game.”

Nothing much to say. Pretty self-explanatory.

A Change is Gonna Come

2008-11-10T15:12:00.002-07:00

...
Speaking of change, the JDD head of the Oilers' Cerberus-like goaltending creature gets the call against the Blueshirts in NYC tonight (his second in a row). This goalie merry-go-round shit is crazy, but given that none of the trio have really sack'd up and grabbed the starter's job, I can't see what else there's to do. Regardless, I anticipate another L for the Oil tonight because, frankly, this team kinda sucks at the moment.
...
Also on the "change" front, I see Mike W is the latest CinO contributor to pull the chute on his blogging career. Read his poignant final missive here. Good night, good luck, GOILERS!

Good weekend

2008-11-03T13:51:00.002-07:00

Two afternoon road games in a row, two points from each. Hemsky with two goals each as pretty as any you'll ever lay eyes on. And much-maligned Old Man Roloson gets both W's. Not bag, not bag at all. Could it be that the sleeping giant that is the Vaunt is starting to stir? We'll put that to the test Wednesday when the Oilers visit Columbus

Five and counting

2008-10-30T21:40:00.003-06:00

Wow, this team is (to borrow a phrase from one of the CinO boys) kicking the care out of me a lot earlier than usual.

So what now? Fire MacT? Or is this lot just not as good as people have been saying they are? Help me out here.

Rexall Place is Inadequate

2008-10-29T18:13:00.004-06:00

No.

Honestly.

I mean, the team only generated 11.8M in operating income, 7th in the league despite the fact they were not recipient of any playoff revenues.

That is, Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The Oilers are [were prior to Katz purchase] debt free so that potentially could put them in even a better financial position than comparables.

It is also interesting to note how quickly the Oilers paid off their debt in recent years. I'd imagine from a cash flow perspective (which many accountants argue to be the a better tool to evaluate financial performance), the Oilers are doing even better than a few teams ranked above them.

Yeah, that Literally. Crush Rexall place is really inadequate.

Now excuse me while I sign a Cheque to Mr. Batman Daryl Katz quickly, so he can expand on his 7 8 figure business income.

I wonder if the payment will trigger in being recipient of a charitable donation receipt which I could then use to minimize my personal income taxes?

Bahhhstaan.

2008-10-27T14:01:00.002-06:00

"Hey Caaahrey! The Price is fahhkin' WRAAAHNG, ya faaahg! AHAHAHAHA!"

The Oilers take on the Massholes tonight and are looking to snap a three game skid. They haven't played the B's since Cam Neely could walk, they're home at Literally. Crush. and OG6 games are always fun. So naturally it's another goddamn PPV. Will the responsible authorities please eat a bag of dicks? Thanks.

So it looks like it'll be me and Gossip Girl tonight and if you have to ask why, well, that's your problem.

Sunday morning coming down

2008-10-26T13:10:00.005-06:00

The good proprietor of BDHS should be happy today, with the sad-sack Spurs sacking their manager, assistants and director of football and then picking up their first win of the season against Bolton. Such is life in a results-oriented business.

When I was in London a couple of weeks ago, I took in a match at White Hart Lane, a 1-0 Spurs loss to the improbable Hull City Tigers. Afterwards, I popped into one of the pubs near the ground for a pint and was forced to show the large men at the door my match ticket to prove I was a home fan and not some away fan there to stir up shit. I think a policy like that is one that needs to be embraced here, because after taking in last night's stinker of a loss for the Oil against the fucking Canucks at the local Edmonton expat bar, I was ready to glass the first person I saw in a Luongo shirt.

But who am I kidding? The real culprits aren't the smug bastards who cheer for a franchise that has accomplished somewhere between dick and squat in its 40-plus years in the league, but the sad fucking crew wearing the oil drop. Garon, Grebeshkov and Gilbert in particular deserve a sound paddling for their work last night and I'll throw in a few choice words for Hemsky as well. And, to bring it back to the news from north London, when is it time to follow Spurs' example and take a hard look at the men behind the bench? MacT arguably has the horses to at least make a run at the NW title this year, but seven games in and this team has yet to play a complete game. Can you lay some of this on the coach? Is it MacT's fault that Grebeshkov is total chaos or that Garon is looking more and more like a Andre Racicot? I'm pretty skeptical about how much effect coaches actually have on the game outside of setting line combinations and working the match ups. I've heard criticism from some corners that the Oilers' efforts or lack thereof attest to a lack of preparation or inspiration, which seems fair enough, but how much is on the coach and how much on what's between the ears of each player? These are questions I can't pretend to answer, but I hope someone does. Because a few more games like the last three and the rumbles of discontent are going to swell to a crescendo.

Fuckin'-A Friday Post

2008-10-24T16:23:00.001-06:00

Weekend's here. How about some rock?

New Lines

2008-10-24T11:25:00.007-06:00

Per Tencer (a "good" blogger who doesn't work blue), the Oilers will go into tomorrow's game against Vancouver with the following combos:

Nilsson - Horcoff - Hemsky

Penner - Cogliano - Gagner

Moreau - Pouliot - Cole

MacIntyre - Brodziak - Stortini

I like. Cole returns to his natural position at RW, which Ray Ferraro says is a good thing, and who knows more about hockey than him?

Defenseman Theo Peckham was returned to the Springfield Falcons of the AHL following last night's game; it's expected that Steve Staios will return to the Oilers lineup tomorrow night following a 2 game absence.

Sadly, the return to action comes to late to bolster Staios' prospects in the Hot Off.

How about the Canucks? I reckon Gillis or Nonis or Burke or whoever the fuck is running that clown show these days was pretty blindsided by Pavol Demitra's injury. You just can't predict these things.

Falling Loonie, Patrick LaForge, Dan Mason

2008-10-24T00:02:00.002-06:00

Interesting article here

Downhill from here?

2008-10-23T15:59:00.002-06:00

Let's see if Ales Hemsky and the rest of the Oilers can pull their heads out of their asses against Colorado after last night's laugher in Shytown. Yeesh.

Young folks

2008-10-22T11:08:00.006-06:00

Tonight's game should be a good 'un, pitting the peach-fuzzed Oilers against a gawky-after-a-summer-growth-spurt Chicago club that's trying hard to impress their new stepdad, Joel Quenneville. Or something. What I'm trying to say here is there's not many players on either club that lived through the Reagan presidency. One of the few old-timers, Sheldon Souray, is, to the surprise of absolutely nobody, injured, though Sam Gagner will be there to bring the median age down even further. Old Man Roloson gets the nod in net for the Oilers: believe me when I say I have a thematic joke in my back pocket on that tidbit, but I really don't want to get sued. Game's on PPV, so tune in to your wireless set for the dulcet tones of Rod Philips instead.

On an unrelated note, I see the Oilers website (your one and only source for Oilers content anywhere ever) is doing some hard-hitting stuff like this feature on pest and "disgusting hockey player" Zack Stortini. Hopefully a "Who'd You Rather" feature won't be too far behind (example: Mrs. Sheldon Souray or the Big Ľubowski's special lady?).

In ur pressbox, disrespecting ur d00ds

2008-10-21T10:27:00.009-06:00

The Dave Berry saga continues to send ripples through the Oilogosphere. This has been covered quite extensively (mudcrutch has a post on the subject here that blows the pants off of anything I could come up with), and I've not much to add. My short take is that the Oilers have a right to dictate who gets to sit in the PB and who doesn't, but their handling of the situation was pretty bush league. What's most interesting about this whole affair is how it betrays a stunning level of ignorance of the new realities of communication on the part of the team. But that's an issue for others to tackle: we've people to mock.

First, OilersNation blogger and radio journo Jason "He's hip, he's cool, he's 45" Gregor strokes his chin and clucks his tongue at the rank social irresponsibility of bloggers these days, and manages to come off like a damn fool.

Most (bloggers) are nameless, faceless people who write their opinions, but unfortunately there are too many false facts in blogs. I understand the next generation gets most of their information from the Internet, but unfortunately lots of it is horribly written or inaccurate. Kids read this stuff and they believe it. I don't think bloggers truly understand the strength of their message, and also the damage it can do. What about writing an article on the damage that bloggers do? They all seem to think that because they "care" about the team, that their messages are helping the team. Well that might be true, but no one in blog world ever talks about the negatives. And it seems that well-written, factual and insightful blogs are rare. For every Lowetide there are 15 horrible bloggers. Kids read the Internet more than the paper, and while we think they should be smart enough to decipher the good from bad, any parent will tell you that isn't the case.

Yeah, he actually went with the "think of the children" line. Fuckin' embarrassing.

But the real good shit comes with Oilers' PR flack J.J. Hebert's attempts to clear the air.

Edmonton Oilers media relations director J.J. Hebert says blogger Dave Berry of Covered in Oil was temporarily banned from the Oilers press box last week because of the "disrespectful and embarrassing" content of Berry's live blog commentary on the Oilers' home opener.

"It was disrespectful, it was embarrassing and we simply do not need it," Hebert says.

What triggered it initially was the content," adds Allan Watt, vice-president of communications for the Oilers. "It was profane."

If we've learned nothing else from Pat Laforge-and I think we haven't-it's that disrespectful and profanity-laden comments about players will only be tolerated once said players are traded (right Doug Weight, you big pussy?)

Having read the l ive blog in question, I find the particular criticism to be interesting to say the least. I count a single use of the word "fuck" in there, but beyond that, the post is pretty vanilla. One thing it is not is uncritical, so it's easy to see why it would get the flack's knickers in a twist.

Hebert goes on to say that problem with treating bloggers the same as members of the MSM, aside from their potty mouths, is there's just so gosh darn many of them.

Hebert says the Oilers will not give accreditation to any independent blogger right now. There are simply too many bloggers at this point for the Oilers to try to pick and choose and accommodate any of them. "Our players are just inundated with requests, as well as phone requests, every day. For us to say yes to Joe Blow's blog, there's 300 more of them out there.
"You can't open the door to one guy and then say no 250 others. You can't."

Which would be fair if it were true. Fact is, though, picking and choosing who does and does not get accreditation is something Herbert and his ilk do on a daily basis. Hell, one might even say it's part of their job. On the great media totem pole, some hack from the St. Albert Gazette is going to be further down than a Dan Barnes and I trust people like Hebert are capable of making the distinction and justifying it. So why not apply similar tests to bloggers. It's been done: there are NHL teams (notably the Washington Capitals) that provide bloggers with press passes. In fact, Caps blogger Eric McErlain at one point drafted a set of guidelines for granting press credentials to bloggers. Clearly it can be done, and in suggesting otherwise Hebert is either being totally disingenuous or he just isn't very good at his job.

What's the upshot here? I dunno. I'm sad that Dave has quit blogging, I'd like to hear more about these "basement threesomes" Alan Watt thinks are a driving force behind blogs, and I'm happier than ever not to be in a position to give the Oilers' organization one thin dime of my cash.

Autograph Revenues Can Buy A Lot Of Things

2008-10-20T18:26:00.003-06:00

Phudi isn't one of them.

Not dead yet.

2008-10-18T17:06:00.002-06:00

Just a quick word to say we haven't pulled a Pleasure Motors and packed it in. I've been out of the country for the last couple of weeks (and have thus missed the Oilers storming out of the gate with three straight ~~lopsided~~ marginal victories) and God only knows where the other people who "work" here are doing with their time. Probably more important things than blogging about hockey. Tonight's another edition of the BoA and I'll be glued to MotherCorp, wearing my Flames-hatin' pants and cursing the tiny tyrants with small dicks who make up the Oilers' PR department. Goilers.

ONOZ!

2008-10-01T10:01:00.002-06:00

Last night, the Oilers got blown out 4-0 by their provincial rivals from Calgary (spits). Seeing as how this was a preseason game, the natural reaction for many is to freak the fuck out.

I didn't see the game, but it sounds like a real stinker, with the Oilers managing something like 19 shots against the guy who's going to open the door to the Flames's bench this year.

Mac T doesn't sound happy, and who can blame him? The team is starting the season with a tough schedule with 12-15 on the road and need to get their shit together before then. Me, I'm inclined to think it'll actually be good for them to get away from the slush of Rexall and the clearly insane fanbase and focus on playing hockey. If not, well, it's better to burn out than fade away.

It's "Captain" Lou to you

2008-09-30T15:52:00.001-06:00

Snark here. I just wanted to post the picture.

They don't make them like that any more.

2008-09-28T01:08:00.002-06:00

Submitted with minimal comment: a fine example of sportswriting as a craft.

This Observer piece on rising rugby union star Danny Cipriani. Best read with a clipped british private-school accent in mind. Or David Attenborough. Sorry: Sir David Attenborough.

The archetypal English player is rugged and fearless, not afraid to mix it up. Their approach is caution first, keep it tight, get the three points in the bag. They prided themselves on being the first nation to embrace professionalism, bringing a new physicality to rugby. Think of the heroes of 2003: Martin Johnson, Lawrence Dallaglio and Jonny Wilkinson - is it my imagination or did they, after years of battering, even start to look alike? Their heroic jaws jutting out, expressions glowering and taciturn, their faces like 'a Christmas present from Easter Island', as Philip Larkin memorably described Ted Hughes. Certainly, these are the men whose shadows loom large over the game in England.

The flip side is that you can almost count the number of flamboyant English players on one hand. There was Prince Alexander Obolensky, whose family fled the Russian Revolution in 1917, before settling in Muswell Hill, north London. 'The Prince' made his England debut in 1936 in a 13-0 victory against the All Blacks, the first time New Zealand had been beaten by a home nation; he scored two tries, including one individual effort that covered most of the field and may be the greatest ever scored in England colours. Sadly, he would win just three more caps, and the flying winger died in 1940 at the age of 24, when his Hawker Hurricane crashed in Suffolk. They don't make them like that any more.

Oilers vs Panthers - Post Game Thoughts

2008-09-25T21:52:00.002-06:00

What a boring game. I usually won't say no to free tickets, but from now on will have to re-consider. We ended up leaving at the 2nd intermission.

The highlight of the day was seeing a couple buy two 46 oz popcorn ($4.00) buckets instead of sharing one 86 oz ($5.25) buckets.

Idiots.

GAME ASSERTIONS
- Trukhno has some skill; thinks the game well
- Pouliot did a great job battling in the corners
- Chorney will be ready sooner rather than later
- Strudwick certainly isn't anything more than press-box/7th D material
- Like Smid's game
- Brule certainly hasn't shown much; he'll be spending the season in the AHL.
- No atmosphere whatsoever at Rexall; for all the right reasons

Feel free to add your thoughts.

15 down

2008-09-25T13:48:00.002-06:00

The Oilers announced another round of cuts today, sending 15 hopefuls packing

Assigned to Springfield were:

Goaltenders (1): Andrew Perugini

Defence (5): Sebastien Bisaillon, Josef Hrabal, Jake Taylor, Cody Wild, Bryan Young

Forwards (8): Hans Benson (RW), Justin Chwedoruk (RW), Garet Hunt (LW), Bryan Lerg (LW), Colin McDonald (RW), Sean McMorrow (RW), Ryan O’Marra (RW), Geoff Paukovich (LW)

Right winger Jordan Eberle, the Oilers’ first round selection in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, was returned to the Regina Pats of the Western Hockey League.

Not many surprises there. O'Marra's looking like a bust. McDonald was my underdog favourite this camp. I hope Paukovich refrains from drilling his cab driver with a shot from behind on his way to YEG.

This blog post is presented in part by LolCats.

Stream of Consciousness.....

2008-09-23T21:26:00.002-06:00

First Period Stream of Consciousness:

20:00 Game is starting off a little scrambly here. Hodgson wins a draw and has a pass picked off, and from there about 4 or 5 are picked off as the Oilers try to gain the zone.

19:15 Canucks are applying a little bit of pressure now, but Roloson looks sharp as he snags a puck out of the air on a long point shot. I hate John Garret... annoying voice and he brings nothing to the table.

18:45 The biggest problem with the feed for me is it's nearly impossible to make out a lot of the numbers... so I can't put this on mute as badly as I want to. Sorry for any mistakes on names...

18:00 McDonald and Brule work very well together to work a cycle together... nice shot from Grebeshkov and McDonald and Brule both crash the net. Big save by Luongo on McDonald, but a good start for two guys who have to impress.

17:30 It's not too often I haven't heard of an Oiler prospect... but I have no idea who Jake Taylor is. He just broke up a cycle down low though.

17:00 Truhkno just got cranked, and then Grebs did... excellent hustle by both of them to make plays though, and they both bounce up. Garret will make it sound like the hit is the big deal, and it's nice for the Nucks to send a message, but the bigger point is that the Oilers got the puck and kept the play alive. Nilsson just set up Cogs on a good chance as well... sublime pass.

16:30 It took Roloson only 3:30 to get pissy in net. Nice. Garret talking about random bullshit... goalies records? Christ.

15:45 And here comes the PP after Burrows gets his stick into Grebs hands. I hate this faceoff rule... just absolutely retarded. Oilers start with Grebs, Gilbert, the kids and Truhkno. I'm really liking the way that Nilsson is seeing the ice early here... he's hitting passing lanes quickly. He'll have a helper tonight. This PP is moving the puck MUCH better than we did last night... hopefully the team takes note that we can't just rely on Souray's bomb, and instead need to use the bomb as a reason to be able to move the puck around a little more.

14:19 ... Brodziak with a weak shot on net and it ends up in the net. Nice start for Jesus Luongo. Potulny may have got a piece of that.... love that he crashed the net there. He's another guy in the mix for that 12th forward spot. Looking at that I'm pretty sure Potulny got it. Good for him. Even if he doesn't get it, it doesn't happen if he doesn't haul ass to the net.

14:00 Does it ever show how young this team is when Brodziak has an A? We left just about everyone back in Edmonton....

13:44 Roloson makes a great stop in tight on Demitra. He looks sharp.

12:37 ... Stortini killing a penalty? And he smokes someone in the defensive zone while on the kill? Awesome for all the wrong reasons. Gotta love the preseason.

12:00 I've never been much of a fan of McDonald, but I like what he's done so far. He's cycling the puck and moving it North in a hurry. These are the types of things MacT is all over, and rightfully so. He's also getting the puck on net whenever he has a chance.... little things like this lead to winning a job instead of riding a bus in the AHL.

11:20 ... #21? Looked like he just had a chance to plaster someone and let up. I'll check on the number in a minute, but you have to make that hit, especially in a preseason game. .. Looks like it was Potulny. Loved his hustle to the net, and he doesn't have to kill the guy there, but unless you're Ales Hemsky you have to throw the body and seperate him from the puck.

11:00 And here we go. Huxley drops 'em with Brown and they're hugging it out. Huxley is Stortini 2.0 apparently.

9:30 Roy takes a penalty because Bernier is a shit and going after Cogliano. Zero issue with that, and it should've been even ups.

9:00 MacT is playing pretty much everyone on the PK early... this is a big tell. You have to be smart and positionally sound to play on the PK. During the regular season, it's a compliment to your game, but during the preseason it's a test. I like it. And as I type this out Roloson makes the world a better place and punches a Canuck in the face. He's having a solid game, I like when he has some fire in him like this because he tends to play better and ends up pissing off the other team and gets them off of their game.

7:15 Cowan last night... Hordichuk tonight? Brutal. Taylor made the right play, Cogliano lost his man for a second (Burrows?) allowing him to make a pass, but given it was on a PK and he didn't want to over commit this is forgivable... and then Young just made a terrible play in front of the net on Hordichuk. Not Roloson's fault... Young has to be better than that.

6:15 Nilsson is buzzing, but his linemates just seem to be invisible thus far... I'm half expecting the blender to be whipped out here. The Oilers are in a funk and a lot of these guys have played together in Springfield so they have experience and a lot of options..... I haven't heard Eberle's name once yet?

5:00 And there he is with a weak shot from a Brodziak pass. Tough not being able to see the numbers.

4:33 Nilsson with another solid pass to set up Cogliano for a scoring chance.....

Luongo doing what he does best - KEEPING IT ONE ONE. Sorry, but that is absolute literary gold. I don't think it was intentional at all, but the way that was implied was just plain awesome.

4:20 ... poor point shot by Taylor. Ripped it into the shinpads when he could've thrown it into the corner where we had 2 guys.

3:20 There's some maturity from Stortini. He blows up a Canuck and draws a penalty and then gets into a fight. The fight itself has been pretty sad... Stort's got the helmet off, and I guess the decision goes to the Canuck, but that's what Stortini needs to do to be effective.

3:00 This game is getting chippy. Can feel the hate. I like it.

2:00 ... great play by Brodziak to split the D and get a good shot on Luongo while drawing the penalty. He's having a heckuva game.

1:37 We're still relying on the point shot too much. We have a lot of skill between the forwards, lets let them make some plays, we don't need to always rely on a rebound or a screen for a PP goal.

1:00 Truhkno makes a nice move to get a shooting lane, but the puck takes a bad bounce on the rebound and gets cleared by Vancouver. Shame.

:12 Truhkno just made another nice play, setting up Potulny in front of the net all alone.

My favourite part of the period has to go to Garret though.... "How many talented guys can you fit into a lineup?" You know you've been a Canucks fan for too long when...

Second Period:

19:55 Nilsson sets up Cogliano again. He is just absolutely flying out there. Loving it. Between him and Brodziak the Oilers future is shining bright tonight. Nilsson just took a slash now and looks hurt... can I jinx it or what? Hope to see him back on the ice soon...

19:00 Bad break for Brule on a high stick penalty... Roloson bails him out on a Hodgson attempt.

17:10 Gilbert makes a bad pinch... Nilsson gets caught on a 1 on 1 and is burned, and Young is left doing nothing again in no mans land. 2-1 Canucks. The good news of all this is Nilsson must be okay if they sent him right back out for a PK.

16:00 Looks like someone talked to Potulny, as he just did exactly what he should've done in the first... McDonald is driving possession again and throwing everything at the net, but that all started because Potulny separated Brown from the puck. Brule showed some fire there... you can tell guys are doing their best to get noticed.

14:30 Another nice cycle by the kid/Truhkno line. He's passed Schremp tonight by my estimation.

12:45 Brule just came back to break up a scramble... and again his line (Mcdonald/Potulny) move the puck North in a hurry. These guys are gaining all kinds of points for their play tonight.

12:12 Eberle shows up for the first time all game with a couple of nice chances... I like his ability to find the soft ice and get his shot off quickly. The kid has a long way to go, not all 18 year olds are Sam Gagner, but he's a beaut.

11:00 Truhkno's compete is through the roof. He just won a battle to get the puck to Nilsson again... who again set up Cogliano. Absolutely loving his game, he looks like he is here to win a job.

9:52 this is the difference between Nilsson this year and last year. He just turned the puck over on the halfboards fairly weakly.. but then he takes off and forces back pressure to get a turnover.

9:15 Brule having an ice shift here... cycling well and plastered two Canucks. He's a little ball of hate.

7:25 Strudwick makes a nice play to stop one of the Van kids on a rush, moves the puck forward and Roy gets a nice chance. Good play all around.

6:15 Again the Brule line is driving possession... I'm not paying attention to who they're playing, but this line has moved the puck north all night. Just excellent work by a trio of guys trying to crack an NHL roster.

4:30 And you know what? McDonald just rang one off the bar as the Brule line was ONCE AGAIN driving possession. These three along with Truhkno are making life for Rob Schremp and Marc Pouliot a lot more difficult.

4:10 Roloson is definitely having a solid game... big save on Grabner in tight on a 2 on 1.

3:40 I think Cogs is getting a bit frustrated... he had Nilsson open at the blueline and instead tried to dispy doodle. Sign of a young player, but not one we can afford too often given just how many of them we have.

3:05 Gilbert just about had a horrendous turnover, but he saved it at the last second... not loving his game thus far. Been pretty happy with Grebeshkov though, especially on the PP.

2:50 Round two.. Huxley and Brown. There are punches this time! Huxley is giving it to Brown... got him with a few good shots early and landed a few glancing shots at the end.

2:40 This game just can't end fast enough for Young. Victimized on two goals and now he takes a penalty....

1:30 Nilsson and Cogs on the PK again, and almost pull it off.... pass was just a little too far ahead by Cogs or Nilsson is going roof daddy there all day long.

0:10 Brodziak just led a nice rush... his hand eye looks fantastic.

Third Period:

19:45 Again the Oilers are showing nice puck movement on the PP... I really hope that this becomes a trend on all of our PP's, as we'll be a much more dangerous team on the PP if we're moving it around before we hit Souray, at the very least.

18:31 5 on 3... lets see what they do. Please something other than a point shot! 20 seconds to go and Eberle is on the ice and coughs it up at the blueline. Grebeshkov with a horrendous pass to Gilbert as the Canuck comes out of the box to pick it off... but Roli has to bang his stick sooner there. Just some preseason rust that guys like Grebeshkov can afford to have... if it's still there in G7 and G8 when they're 4 or 5 games in, we have a problem, but in G2 when they're 1 in I'm not gonna sweat it...

17:20 Roloson just ROBBED the Canucks on a 2 on 0.... and now the Oilers have two penalties? Never mind, Roli made the save and then gave Hansen a shot as Hansen crashed into him... fine by me. Roli isn't a happy man, and it looks like he means business as he's been very, very, good tonight.

16:50 ... is Truhkno playing the point? I don't think he is, but he sure seems to be there on the PP a lot. I'm pretty sure Grebs/Gilbert are both out there. Wish I had this on a TV or was there so I could figure this out... the miniature screen is killing me.

15:50 Canuck just got blown up. No idea who by though.... I'm cursing this feed as much as I'm loving it. The Canucks (crappy) broadcasters aren't helping here as they're busy talking about all kinds of useless crap like this day in Canucks history (1980? 1994? Was there anything else? What kind of franchise would actually want to talk about their history when they've never won... ANYTHING!? Christ....)

14:00 Hordichuk just made Grebeshkov look bad.... man a lot of our "vets" are rusty. The important thing with those guys though is to see where they're at for games 7 and 8....

13:30 Truhkno is just forechecking so well tonight. Absolutely falling in love with his game.... he forced a turnover and Nilsson had another solid opportunity.

12:30 Another giveaway by an Oilers D... not sure who it was, couldn't make out the number for my life of me... may have been #43.... Strudwick? If it wasn't him it was Roy. I know you can never have enough defensemen, but I don't think it's teh end of the world if we risk one of these guys on waivers come opening night.....

11:00 Another chance for Brodziak. Guy is just doing everything right. Can't wait to see where he ends up lining up in the roster....

10:30 Truhkno just made ANOTHER play... almost sprung himself on a breakaway by breaking up a pass back to the point. And then he makes another nice play to get Cogliano the puck. Robbie Schremp, meet your worst nightmare; Truhkno is here, and here's to play so far.

9:15 Beer Break.... new rule that tehy don't go to commercial for an icing? I like that. A lot. Bernier being a knob? Not so much.

7:50 As McDonald moves the puck North for the millionth time tonight, the Oilers draw a PP... they have to make this one count.

7:20 Oilers have a nice chance off the rush as Nilsson and Cogs work a nice give and go.. that line really deserves a goal. Hell - so does the Brule line.

3:40 Been a bit distracted... girlfriend got on MSN. Truhkno makes his first mistake of the night for a penalty.

3:20... nervous play by Strudwick as he tries to outright stop a shot with his stick. Haven't liked his game much tonight.

2:30 As usual with MacT teams... we just kick ass on the PK. Always a pleasure to watch his PK, nevermind once he gets his horses....

1:40 Brodziak just made an UNREAL play on the PK to deflect a pass for a one-timer to Salo on the PK. One hand on his stick and he flings it up to deflect the saucer pass. Just a fantastic play to spring a 2 on 2 out of hte zone and get a change.

Game over. Nucks win 2-1.

Game thoughts are pretty simple....

Brodziak, Truhkno and Nilsson were the three best Oilers. Roloson played well, as did Cogliano. Grebeshkov played decently, I liked a lot of what Potulny and McDonald did, and the rest of the D left a lot to be desired... didn't notice a whole lot from the bottom 6, which should be expected given who was there. Hopefully some cuts some quickly so we can start tuning up for the games that matter.

Outside of that:

Is Robbie Schremp feeling the weight of the world on his shoulders or what?

and...

I thought the Canucks were going to be a "fun" team to watch this season? Ha...

Exhibition Game 1: Canucks 4 Oilers 3 (SO)

2008-09-23T09:54:00.006-06:00

Above: Memory, all alone in the moonlight...

Some quick niblets from last night's first exhibition game:

Sheldon Souray looked really good. I still expect him to get beat wide at least twice a game, but he was physical and quicker than I remember. Decent point shot, too.

The Big Visnovsky had some ups and downs, strikes and gutters. He can make things happen, but I wonder about his two way play.

Laddy Smid looked bigger and more poised. Skated out of the zone well and made a few good outlet passes. Might be ready to take a step forward.

Penner: didn't notice him much after the first frame (have to check his TOI), but he seems to be gelling nicely with San Fernando and Moreau.

Cole showed great hands on the 2-1 goal, has speed to burn, but seemed a beat out of synch with Horcoff and Hemsky, both of whom seemed a touch off (I had no idea Horcoff had two points until I read the summary this morning). Don't think there's much else that needs to be said about him.

Ganger: Better than Viagra.

Schremp: Hustled and made some crisp passes, but he's running up hill. It's time to shit or get off the pot for Sugartits. I don't think he makes it.

Garon: Up to his old Gumby ways. I'm not worried about goaltending.

Didn't like the deja vu of losing a lead in the last few minutes of the third and I am sick of shootouts. The rubber match is tonight on Sportsnet Pacific.

The Method to the Madness.....

2008-09-22T13:25:00.002-06:00

Erik Cole is a beauty hockey player. Just is. He's one of those guys that gets it. He drives to the net with wreckless abandon. He gets the puck moving north-south in a hurry. He can finish, both with the puck and with his shoulder. He's a leader in the room and a leader on the ice. Basically...

He's Jarome Iginla-lite.

Now, while I'm not going to focus on the long-term effects or anything like that, it appears that MacT has figured out two very important things early on at this camp, and it's in a direction that I'm not sure anyone saw him taking. He's figured out how to run one of the best power lines in the league with Cole - Horcoff - Hemsky while still having a a third line that can pick up the rest of the slack.

The answer to the question, of course, was the hero from the '06 run. San Fernando. Early at camp he's been moved to center between Moreau and Penner on a line that very few would've thought of... and early returns are that it's working out well. This isn't the first time MacT has tried to move someone to C - I'm sure we all remember the Ryan Smyth "#1 C" experiment a few years ago, but this is a move that looks brilliant early on. Pisani is a guy who can move the puck North-South in a hurry while Penner and Moreau are both strong along the boards... while I don't want Penner (or Moreau, for that matter) running around in our own zone against Iginla or the Sedin's.... the fact is Pisani is a guy who'll break the cycle and get the puck out... and Penner and Moreau are both guys who can muck the game down low and kill the time.

Will it last? Tough to say, shit happens, guys get injured, guys like Brodziak and Pouliot will have to step it up as time goes on, etc. However, for now, I am damn excited by the prospects of a top 9 that starts with the power line, moves to this mucking line and finishes off with some razzle and dazzle from the kids.

The first preseason game is tonight boys.

Keep your head up and buckle up, it's gonna be a fun Winter.

That's what I call marketing

2008-09-17T14:04:00.002-06:00

As exciting as it is to talk about the Oilers' rookie camp (read: not exciting at all), here's something better: scantily clad dames.

That's the Dallas Stars "Ice Girls" frolicking about in bikinis and such. They are waiting for your call right now: pick up the phone!

Real training camp countdown: T-minus 32 hours.

(glove tap Four Habs Fans)

Car crash

2008-09-15T13:28:00.003-06:00

Hey, anyone read any Oilers blogs lately? Hoo boy. What seems to have started out as a debate over the value of some of the new statistics the Oilogosphere has produced (see: here, here, here, and here) has degenerated into a veritable shit fight at the monkey house. Check out some of the comment threads here, here and here, and try to remember that some of these cats are the same people who deride the folks at HF Oilers for being immature drooling retards, which just goes to show that age and education is no defense against being a total fucking asshole.

Now, I'm no stranger to online pissing contests, but as someone with no dog in this fight beyond my interest in the fortunes of the mighty Oil, I find the whole thing ridiculous even by the gutter standards of internet discourse. So forgive the misuse of this space, and though I know no one has asked and no such advice will be heeded, I thought I'd get this off my chest.

Ain't nobody getting paid for this. For most everyone who writes, reads or comments on the Oil blogs, this is a hobby. The differences seem to be between those for whom following the Oilers is a way to while away the winter hours and an excuse to knock back a few beers and those who, like furries and diaper fetishists, seem to live and die by it. The stats business is a good example. I'm certainly sympathetic to the aims of those who want to push things forward in terms of how the game is analyzed and understood so that shit like "Joffery Lupul is a one-shot scorer" won't be allowed to stand, but a little perspective is needed. I'm sure the stats-heads like to think they are doing the game a service, but I have to wonder what the real world application for some of this stuff is. At best, it's an academic exercise, which is in and of itself worthwhile, but not something to get one's tits in a twist over. A good rule of thumb is: if something someone has written on the internet prompts you to utter a threat against them or their family, you're in too deep. And you probably need some therapy.

Personally, I can take or leave the stats stuff. It's great to have some quantifiable data in hand for winning arguments on the internet, but what matters most is the community, the social aspect, the fact that people from Edmonton to Toronto to Vladivostok and all points in between can be united by their shared love of the game and a team: The Passion That Unites Us All, to borrow a slogan from some minor-league softball team. It's not an exclusive club and it's nobody's personal domain. It's funny as hell to see some of the old-timers complain about the growth of the 'sphere in terms that sound strikingly similar to those used by the gatekeepers in the mainstream media to deride this whole blogging thing back when it started to take off. On the Oilogosphere, there's crap and there's quality and sometimes you have to work through a lot of the latter to get to the former, but that's the price of success. Most of the time, the quality shines through, which is why my posts get three views and Lowetide gets 10 jillion.

The real point here is that we're still a few days shy of training camp in what rightly or wrongly is one of the most anticipated seasons in recent memory. As such, it'll be nice to read and talk about actual hockey again and fuck the rest.

Erik Cole

2008-09-08T21:03:00.006-06:00

"Bank Shot" did some research, and raised a good point over at Lowetide's (link to the right). How much was the "Southeast" division a factor in Erik Cole's overall performance?

A LOT APPARENTLY

Erik Cole posted 24 points in 28 games against Southeast division foes; 27 point in 45 games against all other NHL teams.

It's been well documented goaltending and defense was a considerable issue in the SE division last season.

Erik Cole did some other things quite well; he was physical, drew penalties (tied for 2nd most in the league), and shot the puck 216 times, which would have lead the Oilers last season (Leader: Dustin Penner, 201 SOG).

On the contrary, Cole’s numbers have fallen since 2005-2006 season; since the lockout, he has missed 20, 11, and 9 games respectively since the lockout. He turns 30 in November.

I don't think there is doubt that Erik Cole will help this team win hockey games. At the same time, Erik Cole may not provide full value in his next contract. I acknowledge it's prudent for General Manager, sorry, President of Hockey Operations, Kevin Lowe, to play out the season before deciding whether or not to bring Katz suitcases to the negotiation table.

However, this begs answers to the following questions: Why did Kevin Lowe pursue a player who he has doubts about, and is one year away from unrestricted free agency? Especially given the fact Joni Pitkanen kept his head above water with a EV +/- rating of zero playing difficult opposition. Was Erik Cole the best value in the trade market? Was it the good trade?

David Caruso is investigating.

Fightin' words

2008-09-04T16:15:00.007-06:00

Over at OilersNation, Robin Brownlee asks a few questions about the Oilers’ quest for an enforcer.

Is willing but much-maligned Zack Stortini enough of a deterrent to prevent ruffians from taking liberties with Hemsky, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano and Robert Nilsson if he can get some back-up from newly acquired Jason Strudwick or veterans Steve Staios and Ethan Moreau?
Would a tag-team of Stortini, who dropped the gloves 23 times last season, and J.F. Jacques do the trick if Jacques can overcome wrist and back injuries and finally deliver the physical and fistic contributions expected of him?
Is there an NHL-calibre enforcer in the bent-nosed bunch of minor-leaguers the Oilers have invited to camp who’d be ready and willing to throw down for 500-large on 30 or 40 nights this season?

Fortunately, I have the answers to all of the above. Actually it’s really a single, all-purpose answer:

Who gives a shit?

To my mind, there’s no better example to be found of the parting of ways between conventional wisdom and reality that exists in sports than the value placed on enforcers in the NHL. Having a tough guy to protect teammates and settle scores is regarded as essential by everyone from armchair GMs up to, well, actual GMs (as evidenced by the Oilers’ pursuit of fan favourite and league heavyweight champ Georges Laraque). The idea, sayeth the gospel, is that tough guys not only punish evildoers for their transgressions, but also act to deter the cheap shot artists of the league from taking liberties with star players. If the Oilers had a tough guy, the reasoning goes, Ales Hemsky would never again have to worry about Robyn Regher using Hemsky’s face to apply Turtle Wax to the dasher boards at the end of the rink.

Advocates of the nuclear deterrent theory point to the fact that, since Laraque’s departure, the Oilers have been racked by injuries to key players (Moreau, Souray, Horcoff and Hemsky all missed time last year and, at one point late in the season, the entire 2007 team was in ICU at the U of A hospital). Problem is, correlation is not causation. Dig a little deeper, and you’ll see how the assertion that tough guys prevent injuries is actually baseless.

Below is a (small, shitty)table that compares the official man games lost to injury (MGL) totals (via James Mirtle) with HockeyFights.com’s rankings of total fighting majors by team (FM). For ease of comparison, I’ve clustered the top, middle and bottom thirds of the man games lost together to see how they correlated with fighting majors.

Squint and you can see that four teams in the top 10 in FM were in the bottom of the pile in MGL. But four other leading FM teams were among the league leaders in MGL, with the pugilistic Canucks just missing the cut in that regard. Overall, in this sample, there doesn’t seem to be much of a correlation between how often a team fights and the number of severe injuries they incur.

Granted, this is a simplistic analysis using a rather small sample size and missing out on a helluva lot of variables. But let’s appeal to common sense here: of the myriad major Oilers’ injuries over the past couple of years, how could reasonably have been prevented or deterred by an enforcer? I can think of two: Moreau fucking up his shoulder trying to slap Danny Markov in ‘06 and Souray blowing out his pitching arm in a tilt against the Canucks' Byron Ritchie last year. Theoretically, an enforcer would have prevented these two injuries by taking the burden of scrapping off Moreau and Souray’s shoulders (get it? get it?). But with 33 and 29 career NHL fights respectively, neither Souray nor Moreau are, for lack of a better term, pussies. Both are gritty players who are regarded as leaders on the ice: probably not the kind of guys who will outsource their dirty work on the off chance of a freak (or, in Souray’s case, entirely predictable) injury. Which brings me to another point: outside of the extremely rare one-sided beating or any fight in which Todd Fedoruk is a combatant, most hockey fights end with no harm done to either pugilist. Given the relatively low level of risk involved, it’s hard to see how fighting is any kind of deterrent, particularly for those players whose job description includes regular blows to the head followed five minute stays in the box.

This is nicely illustrated by the photo above. That’s Derek Boogaard about to drop some sweet science on Le GG himself. The same Derek Boogaard who, since rampaging through the Oilers roster a couple of seasons back, has had Oiler fans waking up in a cold sweat whenever a game with Minnesota draws nigh. The Boogeyman is 6’7” and 271 lbs. His career fight card reads like a who’s who of NHL enforcers, with Laraque, Shelley, Godard, Parros and Brashear all making appearances. Clearly, having an enforcer of your own is not going to deter a guy like that because fighting the other team’s enforcer is Boogaard’s entire raison d’etre. It’d take an I.E.D. to stop that motherfucker. That said, Boogaard’s status as both heavyweight and wrecking ball make him an aberration. What about cheap shot artists like the aforementioned Robyn Regehr: surely he would pass up the chance to cripple Sam Ganger if he knew the Oilers had a true tough guy giving the stinkeye from the end of the bench, right?

Well, no. Just as heavyweights tend to fight other heavyweights, punks like Regehr tend not to fight at all (RR had three fights last year against titans like Jason chimera and Dustin Penner). They hit and run. If they do fight, it’s with players in their weightclass. If outmatched, they hang on, or turtle: no harm done. And certainly no compelling reason to pass up the chance to murder another team’s star player.

To sum up so far:

The correlation between an enforcer and team injuries is weak at best, non-existent at worst
Guys who are paid, in whole or in part, to fight aren’t going to change their style of play because of the possibility of getting into a fight.
Guys who are paid to take liberties with others won’t fight an enforcer, thus enforcers carry no value as a deterrent.

So what’s left? Why are guys like Ales Hemsky and Kevin Prendergast, fellas whose knowledge of the game (hopefully) greatly eclipses my own, still grumbling about the need for an enforcer? The only answer that makes any sense is that the importance of an tough guy has become part of the culture of the game, a treasured myth that, while completely lacking in any supporting evidence, is nonetheless repeated, circulated and passed on through the generations as cant (see also: Europeans are pansies, “big goals”). These are things we believe to be true, though all the evidence before our eyes tells us otherwise: enforcers are important. Tough guys prevent injuries. They help teams win.

As “just-so” stories go, that’s all well and good. But when a team like the Oilers with literally more NHL-ready prospects than they know what to do withstarts talking about giving up a roster spot and cap space to some meathead whose job is to act as the human equivalent to those obnoxious Jumbotron exhortations (“Make some NOOOOOOISE!!!), well, it perturbs me.

I’ll close this off with a relevant quote from Mirtle, who did his own analysis of NHL enforcers last year:

At best, they're not a liability. At worst, they cripple their team, allowing somewhere in the neighbourhood of two goals per 60 minutes more than the rest of their team while generating almost zero offence or shots on goal.

If I'm a coach or GM, isn't there a better option at the bottom of the roster?

An Uneventful August

2008-09-03T23:36:00.004-06:00

August was a slow month at PunjabiOil & Company. A mere 6 entries (0.20 Posts/30). Sometimes, there just isn't any value added discussion to be brought forward. Unless, of course, you are Lowetide - the Wayne Gretzky of the Oilogosphere.

Hopefully, September will change. I will be limited in number of posts for the next few months, but I'm sure you will see great 'value-added' discussion from blog co-owners in PDO, LittleFury, and prospect AsiaOil.

With that said, I leave you with this:

The Ranger....

2008-08-18T21:09:00.003-06:00

... has died.

He spent his whole life drinking ice cold beer from the glaciers, hanging out with gorgeous women and fighting off the Sasquatch.

May he rest in peace, because today is a sad, sad day.

My heart will go on

2008-08-14T18:09:00.004-06:00

This dawn found me in a sentimental mood, so I spent some time going through the dusty archives of the Battle of Alberta and Covered in Oil from a time back when the Oilogosphere was young, San Fernando strode the world like a pre-colitis colossus, the acronym CFP stood for little more than Certified Financial Planner and the Calgary Flames were bowing out in the first round (plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose).

Those were heady times. Hockey enjoyment was, for me, at an all time high. The world was our oyster. Then it all came crashing down. The ‘06 summer exodus, the Pronger-for-magic-beans trade, the Smyth trade, the Dive for Five, and two straight seasons out of the playoffs all combined to kick the shit out of this Oilers fan. I’d love to share the optimistic outlook for '08-'09 of my blogging compatriots, but it’s tough: I’m pretty much a beaten dog at this point, cringing every time Kevin Lowe raises his hand.

The Oilers head into the new season (now an agonizing two months away) with arguably fewer question marks than anytime since the lockout. But for me, the big question mark this season is: can I learn to love again?

Do ya think I'm Stolli?

2008-08-13T17:29:00.004-06:00

Ex-Oiler Stoll, Ex Mrs Rod Stewart engaged.

Clearly, Ms. Hunter was not put off by her hubby-to-be's whopping three ES goals and -23 rating last season.

Equally apparent is the fact that we're still a long way from hockey season.

City of Edmonton accused for Hiding facts RE: Arena review

2008-08-07T15:38:00.003-06:00

STORY

"They're going to spin it in the best light possible," said University of Alberta sports economist Brad Humphreys.

"It's sort of as a piece of propaganda, I think. That's the way to think about it.

"It's not the whole truth. There is useful information in there, but there's also information that should be out there that's omitted — just like any other propaganda piece that you might expect out of people that are seeking taxpayer dollars that is primarily going to be used by private enterprise."

ANOTHER STORY

Andy Grabia does a good job covering this on his site.

Enjoy the readings.

Blue Skying.... Reasonably?

2008-08-04T23:39:00.002-06:00

This is Jessica Biel. She isn't Scarlette Jo, Jessica Alba or Jennifer Aniston. She isn't even blonde. She's not an A-list celebrity. However, she's still smoking hot, gorgeous and rich. Any guy would kill to take her home, but no one would confuse her with Scarlette Jo. It's the end of the long weekend for most, but mine is just beginning, as I had today off and have the next two days off as well. Drunken debauchery will certainly take place at some point over this time, but for now, I'm just thinking about the Oilers and blue skying about next season. I'm making sure that we're not bringing home Scarlette Jo, but I can't help but think we have a shot at Jessica Biel, especially if we buy her a few glasses of an expensive wine she's never heard of.

I'll start off with some boxcar numbers. The first dead giveaway that I'm blueskying is that I'm assuming we have no injuries, no benchings, and no suspensions. However, as LT was criticized for averaging the last 3 seasons for each player, I'll just assume that they're all in the best shape of their lives and don't suffer any bad luck what so ever this season.

Last Name, Goals-Points

Cole (42-80) - Horcoff (30-82) - Hemsky (30-94)
Nilsson (24-50) - Gagner (20-70) - Cogliano (26-50)
Penner (32-56) - Brodziak (15-40) - Pisani (21-45)
Moreau (12-25) - Pouliot (12-24) - Stortini (7-14)

Visnovsky (18-70) - Staios (7-19)
Gilbert (10-35) - Grebeshkov (5-25)
Smid (2-10) - Souray (22-38)

Garon (.910 SV%)
Roloson (.900 SV%)

Division Champs
There. Now, that team would score 335 goals. That's not happening, and everyone here knows it. What is interesting though, is that if I threw those numbers out towards anyone, the only one I may get called on is Pouliot. Anything else there isn't all that outlandish to say. My guess is the one that's furthest from the truth is Cole at 42, however I can't help but think a line with Horcoff, Hemsky and Cole on it just has too much speed and too much skill to not be dominant. Ales Hemsky is that good, and Cole and Horcoff are both excellent options for him to hit on the fly and both are willing to crash the net and score the ugly ones.

I'm of the opinion that Ales Hemsky is an elite player in this league. He is without a doubt a top 10 RW, and I think he's going to get the bounces this year, finish in the top 5 in his position for scoring, and finally be considered just as good as he is - because right now he very well could be the most underrated player in the league. Last season, after a slow start, he took off, finishing the last 60 games at a PPG pace. There was a 30 game period in there where he was dominant, followed by another 30 games where he continued to score despite playing most games with an anchor like Jarret Stoll. Desjardin's likes him, his PPP/60 numbers are disgusting, and with the edition of Visnvosky and a "healthy" Souray to his utilization, I can only imagine that it's going to improve. I expect Hemsky, along with Cole and Horcoff, to take the toughest minutes. I also expect career seasons for the trio. In a blueskying role, I hope that Cole takes to loving the atmosphere and the players here, and signs an identical extension to his last one - $12,000,000/3 years. Frontloaded, just so he gets a few more bucks from Mr. Daryl Katz.

Moving on to the kids, the most likely one for a fall back to Earth is Andrew Cogliano. His shooting % was out of this world, and many of us can still imagine several 5 star chances he had where he looked much more Todd Marchant than Butch Goring. That said, I think all of the kids are in a good position moving forward. They all have at least one aspect of the game that they absolutely excel in (Nilsson - Hands, Gagner - Vision, Cogliano - Speed), and they're around a group of veterans that will instill a work ethic into them, and hopefully keep them from getting into too much trouble. All three will force their way onto the PP at one point or another, and you have to imagine that Gagner could very well force himself onto the #1 unit if he can keep up his play from last season. Again, I can't help but continually picture a PP that involves one of Horcoff/Cole/Penner in the high slot ready to crash the net, Gagner in the corner, Hemsky on the halfboards, Souray in the Spacek spot and Visnovsky in the Pronger spot. It's just disgusting on paper, and there's no reason the PP shouldn't be top 5 in the league this season. One of the kids will most likely falter, but to pick any one of them to build upon what they did last year surely isn't out of this world insane.

Down to the 3rd line... that's where the question of just how good this team can be really needs to be answered. How will Penner react to playing with Brodziak and Pisani? What kind of shape will he show up in? Will he have been given the Clockwork Orange treatment, while being forced to get into the kind of shape that guys like Horcoff, Staios and Moreau are known and praised for? Will he have found that extra stride and that extra glare? If he does, all bets for this season are off immeadiately, because players like that come around to an organization once in a generation, and if he can be anywhere near what Bertuzzi was for the Canucks from '98-'02, we're in for one hell of a treat. That's not the only question though, what can we expect from Pisani? Can he continue to play the game despite his illness? Will he remain an outscorer, able to play against anyone and put up results? And if both of these players show up, how good does Brodziak have to be to pass as the 3rd line C? Clearly the organization loves him - he was at the Indy party and the Katz presser. If he's in shape and can find an extra gear, will he be good enough to be on the ice against Iginla? Gaborik? You have to imagine the organization believes it, and if he does he'll have a $3,000,000/2 year extension in his future.

The fourth line is also very interesting. Stortini, that beautiful man, took all kinds of strides forward next year, and sometimes he even did it without falling! He played a very simple game that allowed him to be on the ice against quality, he got under the other teams skin, and he laid a few monstrous hits along the way as well. He's never a guy you'll want to play more than 10 minutes, but he's a guy who can give you 7-9 very, very, good minutes where he leaves everything on the ice. Captain Moreau had all kinds of bad luck last season, and despite his track record I honestly do expect him to be around for most of the season. If he is around, we know he'll be a rock on the PK, we know he can play against quality players, we know he brings a physical edge to his game and we know he is absolutely fantastic in the room. Finally, we have Poo. What a terrible nick name. However, he has shown, time and time again, that he can be on the ice and have very few pucks end up in the back of his net. This is a very good thing, and something that is going to be extremely useful, as with the kid line intact, we're going to need to be able to rely on our fourth line to survive against some decent players. Hopefully they can, at least in short spurts, as they certainly all have the pedigree to.

The Oilers have the least amount of question marks coming into this season that they've had in as long as I can remember. We're not asking who the #1 C is. We're not asking where the goals will come from. We're not asking who can play defense. We're not asking who will be in net.

One thing we are asking though, is how good can Denis Grebeshkov be? Will he be the guy who showed up in the first half of the season or the second half? The guy called Garbagekov, or the guy who appeared to be a dominant force, and had many saying he was at least one of the top 3 Oillers in terms of raw talent? I'm not positive just how good he can be, but after seeing what he did for 40 straight games, who he did it with and who he did it against, I am convinced that he can be a player this season. He'll be able to play at both ends of the rink, eat 20 minutes of ice, and chip in offensively. Along with Tommy Gilbert, he is an absolutely huge part of the future of the Edmonton Oilers, and if he can show some consistency this season I have every bit of belief he'll receive a contract identical to the one that Tommy Gilbert has, and the Oilers will be much better for it moving forward.

Still though, I haven't mentioned the Oilers biggest acquisition of the Summer - Mr. Visnovsky. He's coming off of an extremely disappointing season, with only 41 points and a whopping -. However, his shooting % dropped into the toilet, and Crawford was recently on the Team suggesting that his scoring chances were nearly identical to the two previous years; he just had shit luck. If he can regain the 20 goal, 70 point prowess that he's shown the previous two years, the Oilers have added an absolute stud to their blueline. Compounding the matter is Sheldon Souray. He's a one trick pony, I don't think many will argue that... but man, it is one helluva trick. He's going to get a lot of PP time, and he should be able to score a boatload with said PP time. We also know that he's fairly good on the PK, and should help out with the physicality as well. If he can stay healthy, he certainly adds value to the team. $5,400,000 value? Not a chance, but we're a better team with him in the lineup than out of the lineup. His health is certainly a legitimate question as we enter camp...

Finally, we have Steady Steve and Laddy Smid. Steve will do what he always does... play the majority of the games, give a solid 20 minutes, help a boatload on the PK and play against quality players on the other team. Smid though, is again, a bit of a card. Will he look lost, as he has so many times over the past two years, or will he be the pitbull that seemed like he was on the verge of grasping his positioning down the stretch? Will he ever find the Tommy Albelin in him, or is he going to become a guy who was pushed too fast into this league? Time will tell, but I think as a bottom pairing defenseman, especially if he keeps on the grimace that helped him steal a job from Matt Greene, he'll be another guy who can add to the roster, and hopefully set himself up to be a future top 4 defender.

Finally, we have the two guys in net. The signing of Matty Garon was widely complimented around the Oilogosphere and HFBoards, and he lived up to it last season, posting a .913 SV% along with being absolutely dominant in the SO. You have to imagine Edmonton management would be very happy if he could simply show a repeat performance while starting 60 games instead of 47. I imagine if he does repeat a similar season, he'll get a contract very similar to the one that Dwayne Roloson inked just over 2 years ago. Speaking of Roloson, he had one hell of an up and down season last year. Going from starter, to being supplanted by Garon, to having to go back in net, and doing well, when Garon was injured late in the season and the Oilers were making a legitimate push for a playoff seed. I'd assume that if he can pull off an average SV% and be a calming factor in the room the Oilers would be very happy with that, and it would show in the standings as well.

On the whole, there's a lot to be positive about. We have a lot of guys who are just entering the prime of their careers, and we have a few guys around to do the real heavy lifting and ensure the kids have good role models as they move forward in their hockey careers. We're not a team built to win the cup today, but we very well could be a team thats built to win a cup in a year, depending on what we do this year. Ideally, we'll win the division and have a heated playoff series against a rival - Anaheim, Calgary, Vancouver, Dallas. Pick your poison, but either way, so long as the Oilers pulled it off and then fell to a superior team the following round, there would be all kinds of things to be optimistic about moving forward. A young team that wins a playoff round, has a brand new owner, and has players like Horcoff committing the heart of their career there is going to grab UFA attention, and maybe we're not so far off from being the guys that sign Hossa to a one year deal well below market value.

Assessing The Entity that is the Edmonton Oilers

2008-08-01T18:59:00.005-06:00

Below I outline a list of reasons that promote optimism of the 2008-2009 Edmonton Oilers franchise. I follow up with an outline of reasons to curb that enthusiasm.

REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC

"Tone At The Top" – Daryl Katz vision, resources, and enthusiasm increase player morale, and promote competency.
The Oilers got rid of players (Stoll and Pitkanen) who allegedly had:

Desires to play elsewhere, and;
Commitment issues surrounding them

All opposition teams in the NW have on paper, got worse. This by itself, should marginally improve the Oilers by at least 2-3 points in the standings.
The Oilers should, by virtue of experience gained in the past season, do better in terms of protecting late-game leads.
Presumable improvement in the conditioning department for Dustin Penner. It would be unlikely that he doesn't improve on his 1.34EV/60 rate.
Presumable improvement with age with respect to Ales Hemsky. He statistically had a great season, and that should continue as he's close to entering the prime of his career.
Shawn Horcoff, arguably the Oilers best player, who has been virtually injury free in his career, should be expected to play 75+ games, as opposed to the 53 in 2007-2008.
Erik Cole brings in size and speed to the top six. He was tied for 2^nd in the league, with respect to number of penalties drawn (43). He only took 10 minor penalties himself.
With respect to penalties taken and penalties drawn, gone are Stoll (25:21), Pitkanen (23:8), Reasoner (19:10), Greene (10:5) SOURCE: BEHINDTHENET.CA
Lubomir Visnovsky fills Chris Pronger's skates on the point of the PP – a role inefficiently replaced over the past two seasons. This will presumably open room for Sheldon Souray on the other point, thus a case of utilizing resources to their strengths.
Lubomir's 5.2% SH % last season was well below the 11.3% and 11.2% marks the two previous years.
Fernando Pisani, arguably the Oilers best defensive forward, will have a training camp behind his belt and be ready on contribute at a high level in October, as opposed to January.
Ethan "I-hate-Milk" Moreau should be expected to play and demonstrate leadership for more than 25 games.
Robert Nilsson, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov, Kyle Brodziak, Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Zach Stortini, and Ladislav Smid should on a collective basis, improve on the results of past season.
The team's best goaltender, Garon, is expected to be a starter from opening day. It can be argued Craig MacTavish waited too long in the season before making a goaltending change, which effectively cost the team points.

CURB THAT ENTHUSIASM

The jury is still out on Garon, whether he can deliver a high level of performance for a full NHL season.
Ugly schedule to begin the season. For a young team, a poor start can be more difficult to recover
Injury issues, like the past two seasons, may continue to arise.
Shawn Horcoff is unlikely to duplicate his ~18% shooting percentage. Further consideration should be paid to the health of his shoulder.
Have Souray's shoulder injuries made him a "damaged good?"
Gilbert isn't going to duplicate his ~13% SH %. Just isn't.
The Oilers lost key tough minute eaters and successful face-off contributors in Marty Reasoner and Jarrett Stoll. Will the Brodziak's and Pouliot's adequately replace them?
The Western Conference should continue to be competitive, giving the Oilers little margin for error.

VERDICT

Please continue to remain optimistic.

Movin' on up

2008-07-31T12:42:00.004-06:00

Today, the Oilers named Steve Tambellini their new general manager, with Kevin Lowe stepping into the new role as President of Hockey Operations. K-Pen (Kevin Prendergast) the longtime hockey operations veep, has been assistant GM.

More to come, I'm sure.

Props to Showerhead at IOF for this line:

I like Tambellini's gold medal track record, yes, but his Stanley Cups won decades ago as a player record is severely lacking. How can he be the one to lead us to the promised land?

Raptors vs. Nuggets - In Edmonton

2008-07-30T15:15:00.001-06:00

It's only pre-season, but still should be good.

STORY

Gilbert Brule and Jeff Deslauriers contract status

2008-07-28T02:01:00.003-06:00

Gilbert Brule has 1 year left on his contract. He played less than 10 games as an 18 year old, so his contract was automatically extended for another year. 2006-20007 marked the first year of his entry-level contract. 2007-2008 marked the second. Whether he plays in the NHL or AHL this year, he will become a restricted free agent next year. He will be eligible for RFA offersheets.

Jeff Deslauriers, 31st overall pick in 2002, turned 24 in May. The Oilers will be REQUIRED to play him in at least 28 games (>30 minutes per game) over the next two years, otherwise he will be classified as a Group V UFA.

EDIT TO ADD: Perhaps this is why Lowe and company got him locked up to a one-way contract for the next two years. They likely intend to start giving him games this year, so in the event he is what they hope he is, they don't lose him in the same manner they lost Glencross. I was looking at his numbers today. His .912 SV% was short of Josh Harding's .919 SV%. Of course the Houston Aeros had 96 points in the standings, while Springfield had 80. Not discounting the difference, but perhaps JDD does have the ability to be at least a backup in the NHL level, as argued by Lowetide and Falcon followers at HF. Another point, as argued at Lowetide's, is JDD didn't really receive get many at-bats in his first two years in the AHL (22 and 13 games respectively).

We will see.

Interpreted from here

LONG TERM CONTRACTS - Part II [Goaltenders - Mathieu Garon]

2008-07-25T04:47:00.010-06:00

Please refer to Part I of Long-Term Contracts motivations, before continuing this read.

There are several legitimate motivations for General Manager, Kevin Lowe to extend goaltender Mathieu Garon this summer. These are outlined and briefly discussed below:

MOTIVE #1 – RISK & REWARDS OF CONTRACT TERMS ARE EQUITABLY DISTRIBUTED

Presumably, the contract terms, from the organization's standpoint present at least a moderate possibility that the benefits of the Garon's services will exceed the value of the cumulative paycheques. The Oilers would be seeking player overperformance of the contract. Garon, meanwhile, would be seeking the security of the paycheques that will allow him, his immediate family, and grandchildren a life of sailing on yachts, eating bonbons, sipping refreshing drinks in tropical climates subsequent to retirement. In short, financial security.

MOTIVE #2 – LACK OF SUITABLE ALTERNATIVES

General Manager Kevin Lowe would sign Garon to a long term extension if he reasonably feels there are:

No internal replacements in the system, or at least not so over the life of the extension
No legitimate replacements via the foreseeable 2009 UFA class
No legitimate replacements via the trade route at reasonable cost

This motivation presents profound leverage to the player in contract negotiation

MOTIVE #3 – CONTRACT STRUCTURE PRESENT UNIQUE OPPORTUNITIES

General Manager Kevin Lowe would sign Garon to a long term extension if the contract can be structured in a manner that provides the Oilers with unique opportunities, in the case of significant underperformance, such as:

Frontloading the contract and buying him out in later years, and
Back-loaded salary gives rise to the consideration to retirement
Burying the contract in the minors

Of course with this option to be viable, strong ownership commitment would need to be prevalent. Given Garon is still relatively young, option (b) is unlikely if such an extension is equal or less than 5 years.

DEMOTIVATION #1 – INHERENT RISK

On a collective basis long-term contracts to goaltenders carry more inherent risk than do long-term contracts to defensemen and forwards.

In other words, there are greater potential adverse consequences as a result of subsequent poor performance by a goaltender than of other roster players!

Why? By virtue of the number of designated roster spots for a specified position. There is only one starting goaltender per team, while six starting defensemen, and a whopping twelve starting forwards every game.

Case in point: Sheldon Souray, who is paid like a top pairing defenseman. Despite the fact that he won't ever live up to his paycheques in his present contract, the damages can still be mitigated by playing him in a role in which he can still help the team win hockey games [i.e. bottom pairing, penalty kill, and arguably the powerplay]. With a goaltender like Mikka Kiprusoff, the opportunity for mitigating damages is narrow, given the inherent risk present. Continuing playing him, in the event of poor performance, leads to poor results on the ice; relegating him to backup duty represents a significant waste of otherwise available cap space. In other words, consistently poor performance generated by a goaltender with a long-term contract is filth; and filth carries limited to negligible value around the league.

FINDING THE BALANCE

The key here is balance. Extending Garon to a long term contract is fine, if at inception of contract, the presumable benefits exceed the costs. That is, the strength of the motivations exceed the strength of the demotivations. If I am Kevin Lowe, I have assessed risk for Garon at moderate. The exhibit below represents my comfortable contract offers (please note 1 and 2 year contracts are not classified as long-term contracts):

Number of Years	NHL Salary Cap Hit (USD)
1	4.00M
2	3.75M
3	3.50M
4	3.25M
5	3.00M
6	2.75M

Does that get it done? Perhaps. Perhaps not. The key is assessing the risks, and accordingly acting upon them. Kevin Lowe likely has the hammer [leverage] right now, given Garon's presumable desire for security. It would make good sense to utilize and derive benefit from this very hammer.

What do you offer, if you are Kevin Lowe?

Sugartits!

2008-07-23T15:36:00.004-06:00

If one thing can be unquestionably said about Rob Schremp, he's one hell of an interesting character. Scouts said he had the talent to go top 3 in his draft year, but because of "attitude" problems, he plummeted all the way to 25th, at which point the Oilers rolled the dice on him. Contrary to what scouts want us to believe, it looks like he very well will find a niche in the NHL, but it's not going to be as a #1 line C, and he's not going to be a lesser player because of his attitude or a waste of natural talent.

Rather, it's far more simple, and boils down mediocre skating and a shot that is more Moreau than Kovalchuk. He's working hard though, and looks like a guy who one way or another will have an NHL paycheck in the near future.

And, reading the tea leaves, I'm inclined to believe that that paycheck will be courteous of Mr. Daryl Katz. For the last few years, the top item at the list of "things you can do to impress the organization" has been to spend a few weeks in California with Chad Moreau. As Guy Flaming reported a few days ago, Sugartits has been there every single day since May 1st. That's not it though. He's received some pretty nice praise from both Craig MacTavish and Kelly Buchberger. I think the team believes in the kid, and that it's now or never for him.

Now, to steal something from LT, and ignoring the noise from his seasons in the OHL, lets take a look at his two seasons in the AHL and his Desjardin's numbers from them...

20 year old:
69-17-53
69-8-24

21 year old:
78-23-76
78-10-34

A few things jump out at me when I look at the numbers. First of all, for all the talk we've heard about his hands and his "NHL caliber shot," his goal scoring numbers have left a lot to desire, to put it lightly. Secondly, he's a year off of Vic's "PPG @ 20" line in the sand.... but that's still only a year. How much will him finally taking his off ice training seriously impact that? Tough to say, but I think the fact that he was only a year late, and did manage to find it before starting to really focus on his off-ice training does give reason to be optimistic.

It's not quite so simple though. The Oilers currently have 12 forwards signed to one-way deals, 8 defense signed to one-way deals, 2 goaltenders signed to one one-way deals, and one goaltender who would have to clear waivers to end up in the AHL. For those of you who aren't so great at math, that's 23 contracts. The only two guys who wouldn't have to clear waivers or be paid like an NHL'er to play in the AHL? Gagner and Cogliano. Something tells me they're not going anywhere. So lets assume the Oilers try to keep JDD here... what are their options?

This is Mathieu Roy, seeing stars and realizing how little he's missing the NHL by*. The Oilers currently have him on a one-way contract that will pay him $500,000. I think that, regardless of what he does during camp, Roy will either end up in Springfield, be claimed on waivers by another team, or dealt for a late round draft pick. The signing of Strudwick truly made Roy redundant, and I see no reason for him to remain on the team, even though he is a character guy and he is a decent option as the 7th D.

Still though, that frees up a 13th forward spot for the Oilers. Just one spot, and the guys fighting for it include Potulny, Brule, Reddox, Truhkno, JFJ among others. It's extremely possible that one of these guys shine even more than Schremp, and it's also possible that Schremp would be better suited to tear up the AHL then sit in the press box in Edmonton.

I don't think that's the plan though. The Oilers have two centers who they look at very, very, similarly in my mind. Kyle Brodziak and Marc Pouliot. Both are 2003 drafts, with Brodziak being an overager in the draft. I firmly believe that whichever one of them losses the "Pisani" center spot will find themselves playing in a different city come October, and the Oilers will hit the ice with:

Cole - Horcoff - Hemsky
Nilsson - Gagner - Cogliano
Penner - Pouliot - Pisani
Moreau - Schremp - Stortini
Potulny

Everyone will have a conniption when Schremp isn't paired with pure skill, but the fact of the matter is that he'll be brought along slowly, see time in the pressbox, and have responsible wingers on either side of him that'll make up for his lack of grit and defense, along with two of the hardest workers on the squad.

*Parts of this line may have been stolen from Supermassive, a regular at HFBoards ;)

Visnovsky and No Trade Clause

2008-07-22T22:13:00.007-06:00

Above: the Big Lubowski

Jason Gregor recently asserted that the Oilers would be bound to Visnovsky's NTC.

That is not the case.

Article 11.8 of the CBA states

...If the player is traded or claimed on Waivers prior to the no-Trade or no-move clause taking effect, the clause does not bind the acquiring Club. An acquiring Club may agree to continue to be bound by the no-Trade or no-move clause, which agreement shall be evidenced in writing to the Player, Central Registry and the NHLPA, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereof...

Visnovsky was acquired on June 29, and As his NTC was not bound to take effect until July 1, 2008. Thus, the Oilers were under no obligation to be bound to that said clause for the duration of the contract. Unless, of course, the Oilers evidenced in writing that they wished to be bound by the clause - which just wouldn't result any benefit to the organization.

Shawn Horcoff (next 4 years) and Sheldon Souray (next 2 years) remain the only Oilers with the NTC.

Harassment

2008-07-22T03:18:00.013-06:00

A certain member has been harassing me over the last few months non-stop. Even went as far as to get my phone number and start calling me in the middle of night. I won't mention the name, but here's their facebook picture (you must be logged onto facebook to view it), so people who *have* met this cunt know who I'm talking about:

FACEBOOK

Enough is enough. I have absolutely no choice but to call out the person out publicly. I mean, who the hell has a profile picture like that? Fuckin' dickwad.

Say it aint so, Ray

2008-07-22T00:38:00.004-06:00

It's rumoured that Ray Ferraro, formerly with NBC and Rogers Sportsnet, will sign with TSN. - William Houston

July 21 article

Any predictions on his replacement?

The Flickering Flames

2008-07-21T20:10:00.002-06:00

Cheap smokes and cheaper women; the life of a superstar in Calgary. What amazes me about this picture every time I see it, is just how ugly these girls actually are. That said, there's a bit more to be said about the Flames than questioning the personal life choices of guys like Phaneuf and Kiprusoff. I mean, everyone has had a few too many at one time or another and at least considered taking home a goal who could be described as having a "good personality" at best. It's a fact of life, and I suppose no amount of money changes the fact that booze is a good way to come up with a lot of bad ideas in a short period of time.

That said, a teams General Manager shouldn't be drinking while he's on the job; so I'm not quite sure that we can fully understand what exactly Sutter is thinking. He has traded away quality defenseman signed to good contracts forever, and it's finally starting to catch up with him as he's now paying a guy like Aucoin $4,000,000 to take up cap space that he doesn't have. He's continually managed to get guys to sign to bargain deals, with Regehr and Iginla leading that train. The problem being, he gets a few good deals, pisses away his draft picks and continually chases after reclamation projects instead of legitimate players who can contribute at both ends. This lead to Alex Tanguay being a scape goat for not turning Wayne Primeau into an actual hockey player.

Calgary has made a lot of moves this offseason. Tanguay is gone, and replaced by no one. Huselius was replaced by more expensive Cammalleri. Conroy was signed to a bargain price, several guys were waived but have yet to be moved (Nilson, Warrener, Erikson). Calgary is sitting nearly $2,500,000 over the cap assuming Giordano only got $1,000,000. Nolan was downgraded to a broken Bertuzzi. Glencross proved that is, in fact, a flake. Bourque was brought in to provide "offense." Yelle departed and Langkow took a hometown discount.

What does this mean?

Well, as far as I can see, Calgary lost their 2nd best forward in Tanguay. Their top 6 has gone from:

Iginla
Tanguay
Langkow
Huselius
Lombardi
Nolan

To:

Iginla
Langkow
Cammalleri
Lombardi
Bertuzzi
Conroy

Sorry.... but anyway you slice that, that is a massive downgrade. Compounding matters is that they lost 2 of their top 4 PK'ers and 4 of their top 7 PK'ers up front. Glencross can't kill penalties. Cammalleri can't kill penalties. Bertuzzi can't kill penalties. Andre Roy can certainly spend a lot of time in the box for being a general idiot... but he can't kill penalties either. Of their core (Iginla - Langkow - Regehr - Phaneuf - Kiprusoff), only Phaneuf and Regehr are on the right side of 30 and only Phaneuf has any real reason to believe he can improve.*

So... what's left to happen? The PP, that was middling last season, will likely be middling again. The mediocre PK will likely border on terrible. At evens, they've likely improved marginally in replacing Eriksson with Giordano on the backend, but again that'll be canceled out when rumoured speculation that Aucoin is dealt takes place. Up front, they lost their 2nd best forward at 5v5, and didn't attempt to replace him. Even if their depth is better (very, very, suspect), they've declined there as well.

*This however, leads me to the one wild card that could save the Flames. Kiprusoff had a horrendous year last season. After several years as an elite goaltender, he fell right off the map. Was it just a bad year? Or is he now just another guy? That is the only possible saving grace for the Flames in my eyes...

Unless someone can remind me of any other reason as to why the Flames aren't significantly worse this season while teams like Vancouver (assuming they get Sundin), Edmonton, Chicago and Phoenix have all taken steps forward?

LONG TERM CONTRACTS

2008-07-18T12:56:00.005-06:00

LONG TERM CONTRACTS

Kevin Lowe has not hesitated in signing players to "long-term contract," or acquiring those who have such contracts already in place, under the NHL Salary Cap operating system. In this exercise, I examine and discuss various underlying motives for this strategy, their costs and benefits, and then apply the analysis to the case of the Edmonton Oilers. Please note there can be more than one possible motive for each individual player. Also, please assume for the exercise's purpose, a "long-term contract" is defined as a SPC equal or greater than 3 years and exclude all entry-level contracts.

Using this benchmark criterion, the table below displays the long term contracts Kevin Lowe has compiled, post-NHL lockout.

PLAYER	AVERAGE SALARY (USD)	DURATION (IN YEARS)
Horcoff, Shawn (2^nd)	$5.500	6
Hemsky, Ales	$4.100	6
Gilbert, Tom	$4.000	6
Pronger, Chris	$6.250	5
Souray, Sheldon	$5.400	5
Visnovsky, Lubomir	$5.600	5
Penner, Dustin	$4.250	5
Staios, Steve	$2.700	4
Pisani, Fernando	$2.500	4
Moreau, Ethan	$2.000	4
Roloson, Albert	$3.667	3
Horcoff, Shawn (1^st)	$3.600	3
Lupul, Joffrey	$2.667	3
Torres, Raffi	$2.250	3
Nilsson, Robert	$2.000	3
Stortini, Zachery	$0.700	3

I now discuss the underlying motives a General Manager may have for signing players to such contracts.

MOTIVE #1 – RISK & REWARDS OF CONTRACT TERMS ARE EQUITABLY DISTRIBUTED

The General Manager will sign a player to a long-term contract in a situation in which the risks and rewards of the contract terms are equitably distributed. In such a scenario, there are mutual benefits to both the player and the organization and consideration is given up by both of the mentioned parties. From the organization's standpoint, there exists at least a moderate possibility that the benefits of the player's services will exceed the value of the cumulative paycheques. From the player's standpoint, the security the contract provides is desirable, given consideration to possible unanticipated future events such as long term injury or declining performance. The marginal utility of security is such that the player would have a preference of it over the possibility of earning $X more dollars over the length of the contract, had the player signed a contract shorter in duration. In other words, the player is said to be risk averse, preferring instant gratification over the possibility of longer term gains.

This motive is appropriate in certain circumstances; not so in others.

Some examples of appropriate circumstances include:

Relatively young players exhibiting escalating performance and are recently removed from their entry-level contract. The relatively young player is willing to commit a period such in length that it "eats" away the player's unrestricted free agency years.
The player's cap hit : NHL Salary Cap ratio is progressively declining, and as a result, a long term contract becomes increasingly attractive to the organization, ceteris paribus.

Some examples of inappropriate circumstances include:

Relatively older player, that has demonstrated declining performance, or there exists reasonable likelihood that the relatively older player will demonstrate declining performance, over the length of the contract and the contract term's are biased towards past, rather than expected future performance.
Player has demonstrated a strong history of injuries, and it is reasonable to assume the prospect of future injuries is greater for such a player, as opposed to the average NHL player. This diminishes the likelihood that the benefits of the contract terms will exceed the costs, including the effects of replacement costs during the injury period.

MOTIVE #2 – LACK OF SUITABLE ALTERNATIVES

The General Manager will sign a team's existing player, whom is approaching unrestricted free agency, to a long-term contract when he feels the player fulfills a role or team need and that such role or need cannot be efficiently and effectively replaced by immediate internal recruitment.

The General Manager's grounds for justification for the length of the contract would be twofold:

Losing the said player will presumably lead to a significant drop in overall team performance , and;
Replacing that said player, either via trade or unrestricted free agency, will occur at an unreasonable cost, or such a cost that would make the team worse on an overall basis.

It would not be justified to sign a player to a long-term contract when:

There is a strong network of replacements within the organization that can efficiently and effectively replace that said player and;
A long term contract to such a player would result in greater long-term damage to the organization. Such a contract would be untradeable, and would presumably result in future years, due to the salary cap, a loss of other organization assets.

MOTIVE #3 – FREE AGENCY

The sheer nature of the NHL's Unrestricted Free Agency results long-term offers in obtaining the services of such a player. This, of course, makes sense; the leverage the player holds in such a situation leaves teams with no alternative option but to offer longer terms, to presumably improve their organization on an overall basis, at least so immediately.

This motive is once again, appropriate in certain circumstances; not so in others.

Some examples of appropriate circumstances include:

Unrestricted Free Agent X fulfills a team need immediately. That need cannot be filled internally, and the cost in alternative routes, such as the trade market, would be greater than the cost in the unrestricted free agent market.
The organization presently has an abundance of vacant cap space, and will so in the foreseeable future. As a result, such a contract will not adversely affect the team, and the alternative of obtaining the player's services benefits the organization more than the alternative of incurring vacant cap space.

Some examples of inappropriate circumstances include:

The contract, immediately upon signature, becomes presumably untradeable
The player has demonstrated a strong history of injuries, and future injuries are reasonably foreseeable, such that the contract's strength is undermined.
A long term contract to such a player would result in greater long-term damage to the organization. Such a contract will presumably result in future years, due to the salary cap, a loss of other organization assets

MOTIVE #4 – RESTRICTED FREE AGENCY OFFERSHEETS

The sheer nature of the NHL's RFA Offersheet program, generally results a General Manager to offer long term contracts, in the process of obtaining the services of a restricted free agent. This is because RFAs subject to an offersheet are typically young players with escalating performance, and in an attempt to ensure the benefits of the player's services will exceed the cost (Salary + Draft Picks), a long term contract is offered. Such an RFA will likely be overpaid in earlier years, but the underlying goal is such a player overperforms the contract in the later years. Such overperformance is more likely if the contract is greater in duration.

This motive is once again, appropriate in certain circumstances; not so in others.

Some examples of appropriate circumstances include:

There is greater than moderate probability the organization benefits from RFA X's services will exceed the cost (Salary + Draft Picks), over the life of the contract.
There is a strong probability the team's draft slot in the year(s) of draft pick(s) compensation will be closer to the draft slot of the Stanley Cup Champions, rather than closer to the lottery draft winner.

Some examples of inappropriate circumstances include:

There is greater than moderate probability the organization benefits from RFA X's services will NOT exceed the cost (Salary + Draft Picks), over the life of the contract.
There is a strong probability the team's draft slot in the year(s) of draft pick(s) compensation will be closer to the draft slot of the lottery draft winner, rather than closer to the Stanley Cup Champions

MOTIVE #5 – CONTRACT STRUCTURE PRESENT UNIQUE OPPORTUNITIES

An innovative General Manager may sign a player to a longer term contract, such that the contract is structured in a manner to present the organization with unique opportunities in later years. These opportunities are discussed below:

The contract is structured in such a way in which the salary is frontloaded. In later years, the salary payable will be significantly lower, which would make the contract attractive to budget-minded organizations in the NHL. Also, in later years, if the performance is not in close proximity of the cap hit, the team has the ability to buy-out that said player.
The contract is structured in such a way in which the salary is frontloaded. In later years, the salary payable is significantly lower, such that, the player would give strong consideration to retirement. If the player was signed to this long term contract before he turned 35, the player's cap hit is eliminated the moment the retirement papers are signed.
The owner(s) of the team is (are) operate under a results-oriented (Stanley Cup) approach rather than a profit-oriented approach. Such, the owner(s) is (are) willing to in the future, if the player's performance is not in close proximity to cap hit, send the player to the minors and pay his salary there. Such a move would eliminate the player's cap hit to the organization, if such a player was signed before he turned 35.

APPLYING THE CASE ANALYSIS TO THE EDMONTON OILERS

MOTIVE #1 – RISK & REWARDS OF CONTRACT TERMS ARE EQUITABLY DISTRIBUTED
1. Appropriate Circumstances
  Horcoff, Shawn (2^nd),
  Hemsky, Ales,
  Gilbert, Tom
  Pronger, Chris
  Visnovsky, Lubomir
  Penner, Dustin
  Horcoff, Shawn (1^st)
  Lupul, Joffrey
  Nilsson, Robert
  Stortini, Zachery
2. Inappropriate Circumstances
  Souray, Sheldon
  Roloson, Albert
  Moreau, Ethan
MOTIVE #2 – LACK OF SUITABLE ALTERNATIVES
1. Appropriate Circumstances
  
  Horcoff, Shawn (2^nd)
  Hemsky, Ales
  Visnovsky, Lubomir
  Staios, Steve
  Pisani, Fernando
  Moreau, Ethan
  Horcoff, Shawn (1^st)
2. Inappropriate Circumstances
  Roloson, Albert
MOTIVE #3 – FREE AGENCY
1. Appropriate Circumstances
  N/A
2. Inappropriate Circumstances
  Souray, Sheldon
MOTIVE #4 – RESTRICTED FREE AGENCY OFFERSHEETS
1. Appropriate Circumstances
  
  Penner, Dustin*
2. Inappropriate Circumstances
  Penner, Dustin*
MOTIVE #5 – CONTRACT STRUCTURE PRESENT UNIQUE OPPORTUNITIES
1. Appropriate Circumstances
  
  Souray, Sheldon
  Visnovsky, Lubomir
  Staios, Steve
  Roloson, Albert
2. Inappropriate Circumstances
  N/A

Too early to evaluate the appropriateness

CONCLUSION

There are several motives for an NHL General Manager to sign players to a long-term contract, or acquire players who are in one. The above compiled analysis does not evaluate the actual contract, which is influenced by other factors. Rather, the analysis evaluates the underlying motive behind the long-term contracts, and whether the circumstances surround the motive was appropriate or not. In appears on surface, Kevin Lowe has reasonable grounds for justification of the majority of his long-term contracts either signed or acquired.

Please review the analysis, and chime in with your opinion and/or feedback.

Horcoff Signs the Dotted Line

2008-07-16T17:04:00.003-06:00

And isn't he just beautiful?

$33,000,000 over the next 6 years. It'll kick in after next season, so Scorecoff is signed until he's 36 years old. He also went as far to say he hopes, and envisions that this is not his last contract.

And I completely buy that. By all accounts, the only two other guys in the league that get mentioned in the same conversation of "most fit" NHL'er are Chris Chelios and Horseface, and we have all seen how that has turned out for those two. He's only had the one major injury, and said today it feels better than ever. He's a character guy who has worked harder than everyone else to become one of the best centers in the league.

Moving forward, there's a lot to like about this though. Lowe was very proactive in making sure this didn't become a "Smyth" situation, and as such he helped us avoid a distraction all season long while he put up numbers, his demands went up, and Lowe stayed at the same price. 100% agree with this. We also have our #1 C and our #1 RW locked up as a pair the next 4 seasons at 7.7, 9.6, 9.6, 9.6 combined... you have to imagine they out perform that every year.

This guy is the next Captain of the Oilers, and even more-so, more than even Ryan Smyth, this guy is exactly what being an Oiler should be all about. He's a talented guy, but more importantly he is a guy who has superseded his expectations at every single level. He's a 3rd round draft pick who was never going to be better than a 4th liner. Then a 3rd liner. Then a 2nd liner. Then a "1b" first liner. And now he's just legit, and he's done it on natural talent and a work ethic that few could ever lay blame too. There is no other player I'd rather see be a wire-to-wire Edmonton Oiler.

The absolute best thing about this signing though?

This is what good teams do. This is what the Detroit Red Wings do. This is what the New England Patriots do. This is what the Spurs do. They build from within, find their core, and they keep them together. They pay them, and those are the guys they pay. An atmosphere is created, the wins start to come, you add pieces through smart drafting and good trades. Before you know it, players WANT to play for you... and that's when you add Hossa on a one year deal.

The Oilers are in a fantastic position moving forward, and this contract is a huge step in the right direction.

Centre of attention

2008-07-16T16:25:00.005-06:00

Word out of Oilerville is that Shawn Horcoff has signed a ~~five~~ six-year contract extension. Figures as yet unknown, but who gives a shit: this is simply awesome news. Enjoy your payday, you brilliant heterochromatic bastard. Nothing left to do with the guy but give him the damn "C".

Stay tuned.

EDIT: Early reports are saying it's a six year, $33 million deal. That's a $5.5M cap hit. Niiiiiice.

Joni Pitkanen

2008-07-10T02:26:00.004-06:00

This is the late Robert Stack, a host of the 80’s and 90’s dark matter show, Unsolved Mysteries. His coat was ridiculously long, the voice was eerie, and the narration while walking through the forest terrified the innocent 6 year old out of me. However, his smooth delivery kept viewers interested, and helped solve hundreds of crime related mysteries over the decades. I am no Robert Stack, but please allow me to help guide you through an unsolved mystery relating to the Edmonton Oilers.

JONI PITKANEN
Acquired twelve months ago, in an effort to improve speed, agility, and breakout passing on the wrong side of the red line, it was expected he would be the staple to the Oilers blue line for the next decade. Dubbed as the most physically talented defenseman on the Oilers since Paul Coffey, he gave the organization and the fans reason to be optimistic. There were whispers about his character, his stubbornness, his personality – but everybody just assumed they would go away.

It didn’t turn out that way.

Perhaps the first warning evidence of Joni’s stay in Edmonton being a short one was the signed contract for the 2007-2008 season. 1 year – 2.4M. Questions were put forward: Why didn’t Kevin Lowe lock up the player he paid significant consideration for? Was Joni Pitkanen asking for the moon?

The second warning evidence was connected host, Bob Stauffer, who suggested the Oilers may be looking at moving this defenseman. Keep in mind, at this point in time, Joni had yet to play a game for the Oilers.

The regular season began, and the whispers from the local media didn’t slow down. Joni, shy, but talented, injured his knee early on in the season and was gone for a month. There were other minor injuries and flu’s throughout the year that kept him out of the line-up. An interesting quote from head coach Craig MacTavish when Joni missed a few games with a lower body injury was, “I can’t go in his body and make him play.” Joni ended up missing 19 games in total, and drew criticism for his pain tolerance. However, it was without doubt the Edmonton Oilers were a better team with Joni Pitkanen in the line-up.

Fast forward to the off-season. Joni was selected to play for the Finland National Team at the World Championships. He withdrew due to another injury, and this time was called out by the national team’s head coach.

General Manager Kevin Lowe wasted no time signing RFA’s he wanted back the next year. Robert Nilsson, Denis Grebeshkov, and Tom Gilbert. Many speculated the signing of Tom Gilbert signalled the end of Joni Pitkanen’s time in Edmonton. Kevin Lowe dismissed that, but in the end these speculators were right.

Just days before July 1, 2008, the beginning of the Unrestricted Free Agency period, the Oilers acquired Lubomir Visnovsky – a move made to effectively for a subsequent transaction. Just days later, on July 1, Joni Pitkanen was moved for power-forward Erik Cole. The end result was the Oilers improved the team in the short run, but the trade’s attractiveness remains contingent as to whether Cole’s contract is extended after the 2008-2009 season.

After the trade, several players and coaches suggested that Joni didn’t blend into the team. Ethan Moreau, Shawn Horcoff uncomfortably asserted so in the local media, while Mathieu Garon spoke about the situation on Montreal airwaves. As a fan, it was observable – at least so when Joni scored goals, and the teammates awkwardly congratulated him. The chemistry element was never there, but such is life. At the workplace, one will encounter different personalities. However, one wonders if Joni was a little more outspoken, and a little more assertive, that he, not Tom Gilbert, would be recipient of a six year contract.

Joni briefly spoke after the trade. He mentioned he had a good time in the city, but was looking forward to playing with his “very good friend, T. Ruutu” in Carolina. Perhaps excitement coming from a player who needed a mentor, to play in location where he will be less publicly scrutinized.

The end result was the Joni Pitkanen experiment did not go as expected. I wish Joni the very best in Carolina.

THE QUESTIONS FOR THE VIEWERS
Where did things go wrong?

Was it yet another Edmonton issue?

Did Joni at any point intend to stay long term in Edmonton? Is so, why was he living in a hotel?

Should character play a significant role in negotiating contracts? If so, why? If not, why not?

Does the perceived notion that he didn’t blend in with his teammates affect his performance on the ice?

Will Joni bounce back to performance levels prior the 2006-2007 season?

Did his injuries impact his play?

Did the Edmonton media play a role in his departure?

What were the reasons for his trade request?

What conflict was there between Joni and head coach, Craig MacTavish?

Who will assume Joni’s role of playing the tough minutes (and the Even 5 on 5 rating)?

Did the Oilers organization do everything they could to welcome Joni? To promote efficiency?

And finally, did the Oilers make the right move in trading Joni Pitkanen for Erik Cole?

Join us, next time, for another edition of Unsolved Mysteries.

Big Bert's back

2008-07-07T18:14:00.003-06:00

Noted neck breaker Todd Bertuzzi just signed a one-year, $1.95 million contract with the Flames. Eric Cole is getting nervous.

Shell game

2008-07-02T09:43:00.005-06:00

A superstar player can lead to winning and thus towards a new arena, LaForge says. “You win championships and motivate a community to say, ‘We can do better. We’re bigger, more important, more valuable to Canada and to hockey, if you will. So we need to invest.’ ”

- The Cult of Hockey

This is David Staples speculating that the Oilers' flurry of activity (including the ~~potential~~ attempted Hossa signing) are part of a plan to put the Oilers in a position to win it all so that the team's ownership can convert the resulting outpouring of pride and goodwill into support for a publicly financed new arena. He's probably on to something there.

Me, I'm at the point now where I'm willing to bow to the inevitable and accept that a new arena will be built with a heaping helping of taxpayer dollars. Since I don't actually live in Edmonton anymore, my objections to welfare for billionaires have always been a matter of principle. But to be perfectly frank, if a pile of public cash for a new arena is the price to pay to see Stanley back in Edmonton, it's one I'm willing to let you all pay.

Enjoy your potholes, suckers!

POSTSCRIPT:

Another point from Staples that I want to address is the following:

From a hockey perspective, there would have been absolutely nothing wrong with standing pat this summer, giving Jarret Stoll one more year to see if he can fully recover from his concussion, giving Joni Pitkanen another chance to show he just might be an All-Star puck-moving defenceman, giving Matt Greene a much deserved chance to establish himself as the new Jason Smith of the Oil blueline, a rugged team leader capable of playing against tough opposition.

Frankly, that would have been the prudent course of action if the Oilers focus was slowly building towards a Stanley Cup winning team, putting pieces in place around the likes of Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano.

That makes sense and is all well and good, but if recent history has taught us anything, the days of the slow rebuild seem to be over. The onset of the cap, early free agency means teams are now in a constant state of flux. Even with a solid core locked up, finding the right supporting pieces year after year to ensure a consistent contender is going to be a challenge for most teams not named the Red Wings. Against this backdrop, it makes perfect sense to shorten the time frame for your standard rebuild. Put another way: for the Oil, the last two years were rebuilding years. This year, with new deep pocketed ownership, there's a good chance for this team to make a hard charge for a long playoff run. Why not go for it? Isn't winning now the whole fucking point?

Burning down the house

2008-07-01T12:00:00.005-06:00

That's not the infamous 2001 Canada Day "riot" up there, but the 2006 Stanley Cup "riots." (note to cops, media and hooligans: it's not a riot until a cop car gets flipped and set on fire. A busted window at Tops convenience store and a few purloined copies of "Juggs" do not a riot make). Speaking of 2006, one of the guys on that year's Cup winning Hurricanes squad is an Oiler today. That, friends, is called a segue.

Former Eisbaren Berlin star Erik "Vertebrae" Cole comes over from tobacco country for enigmatic and oft-injured young Finn Joni Pitkanen. Now, I always believed that Pitkanen was the most skilled player on the Oilers roster next to Hemsky and that his character issues were overblown. Guess not.The question marks were enough for the Oilers to send out a kid who's already a real difference maker for a guy in the last year of his deal who scores at rates that make Shawn Horcoff not at all jealous.

So far, Kevin Lowe's off-season looks like this:

Pikanen for Cole
Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene to L.A. for D Lubomir Visnovsky.
Raffi Torres to the Columbus Blue Jackets for 21-year-old centre Gilbert Brule.

In terms of assets coming in, the Oilers get a veteran offensive defenceman coming off a bad year, a pint-size former first round pick and a big, physical winger that can play some tough minutes. Brule is a bust and in losing Torres, the Oil give up a physical prescence (though a maddeningly inconsistent one) and a decent ES player, which is weird given how few of those they have. He was kind of a douchebag, I guess, and that makes this deal okay for some.

All in all, I'm having a hard time seeing any of these as big upgrades. I've always been a fan of Lobo, but he effectively takes Pitkanen's spot. Cole more than effectively replaces Torres, but I'd be a lot happier if he came with an extension or additional assets as insurance for if/when he walks at the end of what will almost certainly be another year on the fringes. He will also likely bump Dustin Penner off the first line, another clear addmission by Lowe that he fucked up that offer sheet deal.

"Creme" Brule? By all accounts he's as useless as tits on a boar.

The Oilers are older today and a little better, but not by a whole lot. We'll see what, if anything, happens next.

The Sympathy Contract?

2008-06-30T12:41:00.003-06:00

Mathieu Roy (Livelihood Stats) will not have a lengthy term NHL career as an Edmonton Oiler.

Mathieu Roy has a one-way contract for the 2008-2009 NHL season at a 0.500M cap hit. He will be compensated this amount regardless of whether he's with the Oilers, or buried in the minors after clearing waivers.

Unless, of course, he is bought out before today's (Monday) 3 p.m. MDT NHL deadline.

The Edmonton Oilers presently boast a defensive crops of:

Sheldon Souray, Joni Pitkanen, Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov, Steve Staios, Lubomir Visnovsky, and Ladislav Smid.

That's 7. With Taylor Chorney, Theo Peckham, and Josaf Hrabral breathing heavily.

Given the fact he hasn't played enough games, Roy can be bought out for a mere 1/3 of his contract, effectively ~166,667, over double the length of the contract (2 years). This would effectively mean, a minute 83,333 cap hit over the next 2 years.

Is this a sympathy contract, with the Oilers wishing to stay true to their commitment? Or does Roy really figure in the Oilers plan of press-box defenseman?

Finding a Dance Partner.....

2008-06-22T20:51:00.004-06:00

"Talk is cheap, shut up and dance/don't get deep, shut up and dance."

- Aerosmith

I feel like I'm stealing from LT, using lyrics that fit the Oilers situation here, but it just fit too well, dammit. Kevin Lowe has talked, and talked, and talked, since he dealt Pronger. But he hasn't done a whole lot besides talk, and it's time for him to just shut up, find a dance partner, and make some magic happen. If we have to wait any longer, we're going to have to hear about his new hair cut....

Since the lockout, Kevin Lowe has entered every season with an unbalanced roster. In 05-06 we saw the Conkabostonaccentnenn experiment. Following that, the Oilers rolled up the rim all of 06-07, with a D Corps that left everyone wanting a lot more, and last year we hit the ground running with more rookies than the Florida Marlins usually have.

This year?

There's a lot of 6's and 7's, and a lot of guys who sure look like they're on their way to becoming Q's and K's... but there's also very few actual Q's and K's. Thanks to a hot streak at the end of the season that clearly wasn't sustainable, the Oilers fan base is expecting a playoff birth.

Looking at the depth chart, an argument can be made that the Oilers have as many as 17 forwards and 8 D who should at the least be in the pressbox instead of in the AHL. They've paid their dues, and it's time for the Oilers to make a decision. Lets assume that Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky, Gagner, Moreau, Pisani and Nilsson are the forwards not moving anywhere for any reason, and that Souray, Pitkanen, Grebeshkov, Gilbert and Staios are the D that can safely own instead of rent. That leaves: Cogliano (Who is only dealt in a deal that brings back a young, star), Smid, Greene, Schremp, Pouliot, Stoll, Torres and Chorney as players of interest.

The Oilers needs are pretty obvious from my standpoint, either a LW to improve the top unit and allow Penner to give some toughness and take some time with two of the kids, or a legit D. First round picks certainly aren't a bad thing, but they're not going to come easily in another hyped draft, unless we're dealing two players to a very desperate team.

Basically, the Oilers can offer young depth to a rebuilding team. Smid and Greene would certainly garner interest, Cogliano is a deal breaker, and a lot of teams would still like guys like Torres and Stoll on their roster. Chorney is pretty close to being a blue chip guy himself, and Pouliot and Schremp at this point in their careers are more of a throw in to finish a deal. We know the Oilers won't won't make deals with any of Calgary, Vancouver, Colorado, Buffalo or Anaheim for varying reasons. I wouldn't rule out a deal with Minnesota.

So first, we'll look for teams that actually have that player who could or could not be the missing piece and whom the Oilers will deal with, and whom presumably could be available for the right package. We'll get into the package after. Basically, right now we're just identifying youngish LW's and youngish D's who have high upside, but aren't Alexander Ovechkin. They must at least be Sophomores, but ideally we're talking about a guy on his second contract.

Atlanta - Kovalchuk, Exelby
Carolina - Cole, Williams
Chicago - Havlat, Keith
Columbus - Zherdev, Tollefsen
Florida - Bouwmeester
LA - Frolov
Minnesota - Gaborik
Montreal - Higgins, Komisarek
Nashville - Hamhuis
New Jersey - Elias
Philly - Gagne
Phoenix - 1st in '09
Pittsburgh - 1st in '09
San Jose - Michalek
St. Louis - Kariya, McKee
Tampa - 1st in '09, Ranger
Toronto - 1st in '09, Steen
Washington - Semin, Green

Now, I'm not denying there are some big, big name tickets on the board there. The chances of actually landing a guy like Kovalchuk or Gaborik are minimal at best, but that's not the point of this exercise. What I'm looking for here simply, is to name every possible acquisition that wouldn't cost the moon and would improve the team in one way or another. The 1st's don't immediately improve the team by any stretch, but in this draft, and with those teams windows, I think all of them could and would be available in the right deal.

The next question here, of course, is what teams here would be interested in pulling a quality for quantity deal? What teams here are in desperate need of some filler for their roster? Which teams here need to either blow it up and hope for a quick reload through a lot of assets, are in cap trouble, or absolutely need to go into win now mode?

From that list of teams, I would say:

Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Florida, LA, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa and Toronto fit one of those descriptions and would at least consider a package.

What would a package of Torres, Smid and Greene look like to Tampa Bay? Does that get you Paul Ranger and their 1st? What about Cogliano, Smid, Schremp and Stoll for Kovalchuk? How much would Pittsburgh part with for Torres and Greene, attempting to replace Malone and Orpik? What about Toronto? What would they give up for a guy like Jarret Stoll, who could inject some much needed heart into that room?

Either way, I think we're looking at something like Lowe is right now. He knows who he'll move, and he knows what he wants, and he should hopefully know what the other teams needs are.... so where's the match here? What combination of the above players gets us what I've listed?

Alex Tanguay to Mike Cammalleri is a downgrade

2008-06-22T01:47:00.004-06:00

PDO and I were discussing this last night. I initally thought it was a good move for the Flames. PDO disagreed, and brought up a few good points. He has now convinced me this move is a huge step back for the Flames:

1) Last year, Cammalleri had the 2nd easiest QUAL COMP rating on the Kings, with a -0.04 QUAL COMP Rating. Tanguay had the toughest minutes on the Flames, with a QUAL COMP of +0.07

BEHIND THE NET - QUAL COMP - LA

BEHIND THE NET - QUAL COMP - CGY

2) In Cammalleri's best season he put up 80 points, only 43 of those came at even strength.

In Alex Tanguay's worst NHL season in recent memory last year, 45 of his points were on EV.

Cammalleri will help the powerplay, but that may be negligible with the pending loss of Kristian Huselius. It seems Calgary were a better team pre-draft. Losing 8 spots in the first round didn't help the trade evaluation in their favor either.

*Special thanks to PDO for the argument's foundation

Why Joni Pitkanen May Be Traded

2008-06-18T22:07:00.003-06:00

Kevin Lowe wasted little time prioritizing and getting a signature from the likes of Tom Gilbert, Robert Nilsson, and Denis Grebeshkov.

On the flip side of the coin are: Joni Pitkanen. Jarrett Stoll. Marc-Antoine Pouliot. Zach Stortini. JF Jacques. 5 assets of the Edmonton Oilers that are vulnerable to an RFA offersheet. The latter three will have minimal interest around the league. With Jarrett Stoll, the compensation may be sufficient. However, Joni Pitkanen’s situation is coming eerily disturbing every counting day he is left unsigned.

Joni Pitkanen has been whispered to be on the market the moment he was traded to the Oilers last July. If there are few sources, you are inclined to dismiss these rumours without second thought. However, when the sea is bursting, you are left with little discretion but to gaze. From NY, to LA, to Carolina, there appears strong interest in obtaining the young Finnish defenseman. Given that Pitkanen wasn’t prioritized at the top of the global urban food chain, and left vulnerable to the RFA offersheet (Team elected arbitration was not applicable), you really wonder how devoted Kevin Lowe is retaining his services.

According to NHLSCAP.com, the compensation for an RFA Offersheet will be:

Amount Compensation Due
$863,156 or less None
$863,156 - $1,307,811 3rd round pick
$1,307,811 - $2,615,623 2nd round pick
$2,615,623 - $3,923,434 1st and 3rd round pick
$3,923,434 - $5,231,246 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
$5,231,246 - $6,539,061 Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
$6,539,061 or more Four 1st round picks

The upper end of the bolded category is what I fear. Too much to the extent that it is no longer a value contract in the short term; and too low to the extent that the compensation is insufficient for a young man who was the Oilers best defenceman last season and has Norris-Trophy Potential.

Perhaps Kevin Lowe realizes this. Perhaps he realizes the possibility that negotiating with Joni will not be an effortless task. Perhaps he realizes that he will be put in a very tough position if the offersheet is received at the end of July; too late to dip in the free agent market and find a sufficient value contract, and insufficient compensation levels that will most certainly leave the 2008 Oilers defence corps in an unsightly position. Perhaps Kevin Lowe realizes all of the above.

Which is why, and not necessarily saying I be of the same opinion, believe there is a good possibility that Joni Pitkanen will be traded within the next 15 days.

Did You Know...

2008-06-11T01:26:00.002-06:00

Wayne Gretzky received a honorary degree at the University of Alberta in 2000?

OLD LINK

Playoff Predictions Pool - Final Results

2008-06-04T21:45:00.002-06:00

Thank you for participating

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

Overall Standings after 4 of 4 rounds:
LittleFury 140+10=150 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 110+40=150 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 140+0=140
doritogrande 100+40=140
JambonDan 130
YKOil 120+0=120
PDO 120+20=120
Jonathan 100+20=120
Paulus 100+10=110
Mr DeBakey 100
jon 70
Oilman 50
Jon G 20

Round 4 Results
doritogrande 40 (CO-WINNER)
MikeW 40 (CO-WINNER)
Jonathan 20
PDO 20
Paulus 10
LittleFury 10
YKOIL 0
PunjabiOil 0

Round 3 Results:
PunjabiOil 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
PDO 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+10=20
LittleFury 10+10=20
DeBakey 10+10=20
Jonathan 10+10=20
Paulus 0+20=20
YKOil 20+0=20
doritogrande 0+0=0

Round 2 Results:
JambonDan 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 10+10+20=40
Paulus 20+10=30
doritogrande 10+10+10=30
Jonathan 10+10=20
LittleFury 20
Jon G 20
YKOil 10
PDO 10
DeBakey 0

Round 1 Results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40

Off-Season Approach

2008-06-04T19:33:00.007-06:00

Dan Tencer dos a nice job getting the goods out of Craig MacTavish and Kevin Lowe,

Some excerpts:

ON TRADING

MacTavish

The young bodies also complicate things. Going down the roster, the numbers don't add up. There are too many names for too few spots. "It's a simple mathematical equation at this point," says MacTavish. "There are more players than there are positions. They're all good players so there's going to be good competition barring a multiple player deal."

Lowe

"We look at it and go ok, who's going to be here, because we've got a lot of bodies. Now it's a matter of me and the organization to do the best to manage the assets and improve the hockey team. If that means potentially getting into a situation where we move three or four assets for one or two coming back, that might be a good thing."

The hints are there, but unlike last year, a more conservative approach to the offseason has been taken

ON REASONER:

MacTavish

"I want Reasoner back for sure," MacTavish told me matter-of-factly. "He's a valuable member of our team. We'd be remisce in a lot of respects not to bring him back. We're hopeful that we can get him signed."

Lowe

Kevin Lowe acknowledges Reasoner's value, but doesn't have the same cut-and-dry feeling as his head coach. "I've talked to Marty's agent saying we have interest in bringing Marty back but we also have a lot of bodies right now so we have to see what unfolds in the next weeks and months."

Somewhat conflicting approaches. MacTavish has his favourites, but Marty was terrific in the last half of the year. He was instrumental on the penalty-kill, and played one of the toughest minutes on the Oilers. Lowe probably is juggling on whether there is enough room going forward down the middle:

Horcoff
Gagner
Stoll
Brodziak

Pouliot
Schremp
Nash

Of course you can convert some of them on the wing, but there is only so much room. I would personally approach Reasoner with a 2M/2 year take-it-or-leave it offer.

ON GLENCROSS

Lowe

"If his mindset or his agent's mindset is that this is his one kick at really hitting a home run then he's probably going to end up doing it in free agency and not necessarilly with us at this point," Lowe stated.

"It just might work out that he ends up going elsewhere. We certainly have enough bodies here so that's not a concern."

"We like the way he finished the year and we like his enthusiasm. He's a great kid and I think he has upside in his game. But, like I said before, we're piecing a puzzle together and we have higher end guys making more money so we have to find the right number where he can fit into our future and not hurt us in terms of bringing other guys in or retaining other guys."

You have to love this. In all likelihood, Glencross will turn out to be a legitimate NHL player - but every man has a price limit, and every bottom six player is replaceable.

Carefully selected words by Lowe - perhaps to put some heat on the Glencross party.

ON TEAM NEEDS & FREE AGENCY

Lowe

"If we can add to our team by upgrading our scoring and some of our toughness, we have the assets to do it," says Kevin Lowe.

"We don't have to rely on free agency to do it. That doesn't mean we won't be listening or making calls on July 1st."

MacTavish

"When you look at some of the other teams and their situation and our situation there's going to be some very interesting dialogue between us and a couple or three other teams who are looking to shed some salary cap and add some depth," said MacTavish.

Raffi Torres? Jarrett Stoll, whom the Oilers have been mum regarding a contract extension?

ON PITKANEN

Mactavish

Craig MacTavish would love to have another year to evaluate Pitkanen, though, before making a decision. "I think that's fair," started MacTavish. "We had a real good discussion with him in terms of what our expectation was for him and whether he had the willingness to work and change some of the aspects of his game. We're not talking about fundamental changes in his game; we're talking about subtle changes in his game and playing the game more situationally. It's just managing those decisions of when it makes sense for him to jump up in the play and when it doesn't."

Just a possibility - the Oilers were kicking tires about moving Pitkanen, and didn't like the offers.

ON ROLOSON

MacTavish

"It's a difficult situation for a guy like Dwayne who works so hard and puts so much time into being a number one goalie," says Craig MacTavish. "That discussion will be very important in terms of what our direction is with our goaltending. From my perspective, I'd certainly like to have him back."

Does Kevin Lowe?

ON GETTING RESULTS

MacTavish

"Pressure on an NHL head coach. It's business as usual; we'll all be evaluated based on the success that we have. It's a foregone conclusion that if you don't have success for an extended period of time that you'll be looking for elsewhere. That's part of the job. I've lived with it since the day I signed a contract to coach here in Edmonton and I'll be living with it next year. Business as usual from my perspective."

Lowe

"We didn't prove anything. We had a nice 20 odd game run and there's lots of optimism but I do know that when the puck drops next October that it's going to be a grind to make the playoffs."

Saying all the right things. Great quotes in the blog entry by Tencer to chew on.

Doesn't it almost seem as if Craig MacTavish is a co-GM these days?

NHL Spring League?

2008-06-02T01:24:00.002-06:00

Would this idea work?

The NBA already has it's summer league, in which teams consist of players who have been in the league for 3 years or less as well as newly drafted youngsters.

Would there be enough interest to watch the Bobby Schremp's or Marc-Antoine Pouliot's in July? Or will hockey fans, including Canadians, scoff at the notion and go back to their regularly scheduled baseball and barbeques?

It's an interesting concept put forth by former GM Mike Barnett. Perhaps the league should be limied to 10 teams, with 3 NHL teams sharing a summer league team. Perhaps venues should be limited to non-NHL cities and change annually, to keep the fan interest intact. Lots of possibilies, and in the sake of prospect development, this notion warrants further consideration.

Playoff Prediction Pool - Stanley Cup Final

2008-05-19T18:51:00.002-06:00

Get your picks in!

Anyone is welcome, whether they participated in the previous rounds or not.

TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE FINAL ROUND
20 points for correct team. 40 points for correct team and number of games. 10 points for correct number of games, but wrong team.

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

The competitive standings are calculated below. Please notify if there are any miscalculations.

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
STANLEY CUP FINAL - ROUND #4

My Picks (in bold):

Series A: Detroit vs Pittsburgh - 7 games

Round 3 Results:
PunjabiOil 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
PDO 10+20=30 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+10=20
LittleFury 10+10=20
DeBakey 10+10=20
Jonathan 10+10=20
Paulus 0+20=20
YKOil 20+0=20
doritogrande 0+0=0

Round 2 Results:
JambonDan 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 10+10+20=40
Paulus 20+10=30
doritogrande 10+10+10=30
Jonathan 10+10=20
LittleFury 20
Jon G 20
YKOil 10
PDO 10
DeBakey 0

Round 1 Results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40

Overall Standings after 3 of 4 rounds:
LittleFury 120+20=140
PunjabiOil 110+30=140
JambonDan 130+0=130
YKOil 100+20=120
PDO 90+30=120
MikeP 90+20=110
doritogrande 100+0=100
Mr DeBakey 80+20=100
Jonathan 80+20=100
Paulus 80+20=100
jon 70+0=70
Oilman 50+0=50
Jon G 20

Martin Erat Signed - 7 year/31M deal

2008-05-12T14:37:00.006-06:00

Former Red Deer Rebel, and memorial cup champ in 2001, is set for life.

Dave Poile did another great job. Signed a 26 year old who gives up 6 years of unrestricted free agency, heading into the prime of his career, to a respectable 4.5M/year deal.

CAREER NUMBERS

Perhaps a bit too much today, but given free agency, age, and most importantly length of contract - I'm a fan of this deal.

Are you?

Detroit Red Wings - The Template of a Successful Franchise

2008-05-07T19:21:00.020-06:00

The Detroit Red Wings have been a template of a successful NHL franchise. Dominance in the win-loss category over the past 15 years, exceptional scouting, and a strong desire by players to play for the franchise. GM Ken Holland has done a masterful job negotiating contracts. There are quite a number of players significantly overperforming their contract's cap hit.

They include:

Kronwall, Niklas (3.000)
Zetterberg, Henrik (2.650)
Holmstrom, Tomas (2.250)
Samuelsson, Mikael (1.200)
Chelios, Chris (1.150)
Franzen, Johan (0.942)
Osgood, Chris (0.850)
Filppula, Valtteri (0.733)
Cleary, Daniel (0.662)

Of course many of these players will (already have) receive(d) significant raises in their next contract, but it's remarkable how none of these players are in their entry level contracts, when the window opportunity for ''bang-for-your-buck" is at its peak. I also have confidence in Holland to replenish that talent when one of these players prices himself out of Detroit.

Players like Cleary (2.800) and Osgood (1.417), Lidstrom (7.450), Draper (1.583) have recently signed extensions at very reasonable dollars. One can argue all of these have potential for overperformance of the contract.

You can look at the entire cap list and find it difficult to locate an overpaid contract. Perhaps Hasek, but that is for only 1 year. Rafalski may slow down by the end of the contract - but we'll see. Other than that however, this is an astute job by GM Ken Holland.

What inspired me to look closely at Detroit's situation?

Recent rumblings by Robin Brownlee, who posts on the Oilersnation blog (link on right), suggest Curtis Glencross is asking in the neighborhood of $2M. Can't say I don't like the player - he provides energy, hits, and has improved his scoring touch over the past few years. Yet, Kevin Lowe must exercise skeptism in this case, given the fact Curtis boasted a 22% shooting percentage in Edmonton, wasn't a full-time NHLer in Columbus, and played very soft minutes pn the 4th line. Anywhere near the 1.5M range and the Oilers aren't getting a player who will likely overperform his contract. With this topic on the table, how do the Oilers fare in terms of getting value from their contracts?

Let's examine closely to next year's cap situation.

Overperforming Contracts
Hemsky, Ales (4.100)
Horcoff, Shawn (3.600)
Gagner, Sam (1.625) - Entry Level Contract
Cogliano, Andrew (1.133) - Entry Level Contract
Stortini, Zack (0.534) - Entry Level Contract
Brodziak, Kyle (0.497)
Garon, Mathieu (1.100)

Reasonably Performing Contracts
Pisani, Fernando (2.500)
Reasoner, Marty (~1.00) - projected in next contract
Nilsson, Robert (2.000)
Staios, Steve (2.700)
Greene, Matt (1.150)
Grebeshkov, Denis (1.500)
Smid, Ladislav (.886) - Entry Level Contract

Underperforming Contracts
Penner, Dustin (4.250)
Torres, Raffi (2.250) - Slightly
Moreau, Ethan (2.000) - Slightly even when healthy
Souray, Sheldon (5.400)
Roy, Mathieu (0.500)
Roloson, Dwayne (3.667)

*Too early to tell:
(RFA's) Pouliot, Pitkanen, Stoll.
(UFA) Glencross
*Tempted to throw Gilbert in the underperforming contract for next season

Many of the overperforming contracts come in the form of rookie contracts. Horcoff and Garon becomes less of a bargain in their next contract. Likewise, as good of a player Pitkanen is, he'll be getting reasonably paid in his next contract, and like Gilbert's contract, it will be of the ''pay for potential'' variety. On the flip side of the coin, Roloson and Roy will cease to be in the underperforming list when their contracts expire next summer. It's also probably not fair to include Penner, since it was REQUIRED to overpay to obtain him.

In Summary, Kevin Lowe has done an OK job negotiating contracts.

But, he's no Ken Holland.

Dion and "The Girl Next Door"

2008-05-06T15:36:00.003-06:00

UGLINESS

Playoff Predictions - Round 3 - Conference Finals

2008-05-05T00:36:00.003-06:00

Get your picks in!

Anyone is welcome, whether they participated in the previous rounds or not.

10 points for correct team. 20 points for correct team and number of games. 0 points for correct number of games, but wrong team.

2 pools here:
1) Round winner
2) Overall Playoffs winner

The competitive standings are calculated below. Please notify if there are any miscalculations.

PLAYOFF SCHEDULE
CONFERENCE FINALS - ROUND #3

My Picks (in bold):

Series A: Detroit vs Dallas - 5 games

Series B: Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia - 5 games

Round 2 Results:
JambonDan 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
MikeP 10+20+20=50 (CO-WINNER)
PunjabiOil 10+10+20=40
Paulus 20+10=30
doritogrande 10+10+10=30
Jonathan 10+10=20
LittleFury 20
Jon G 20
YKOil 10
PDO 10
DeBakey 0

Round 1 Results:
LittleFury 10+10+20+10+10+20+20=100 (WINNER)
YKOil 10+10+10+20+20+20=90
PDO 10+10+20+20+10+10=80
Mr DeBakey 10+10+10+10+10+10+20=80
JambonDan 10+10+20+10+10+20=80
doritogrande 10+10+20+10+20=70
jon 10+10+10+20+10+10=70
PunjabiOil 10+10+20+10+10+10=70
Jonathan 10+10+10+20+10=60
Paulus 10+20+10+10=50
Oilman 10+10+10+10+10=50
MikeP 10+10+10+10=40

Overall Standings after 2 of 4 rounds:
JambonDan 80+50=130
LittleFury 100+20=120
PunjabiOil 70+40=110
YKOil 90+10=100
doritogrande 70+30=100
MikeP 40+50=90
PDO 80+10=90
Mr DeBakey 80+0=80
Jonathan 60+20=80
Paulus 50+30=80
jon 70+0=70
Oilman 50+0=50
Jon G 20

Worst. Deadline Deal. EVAAARRRR.

2008-05-03T21:49:00.004-06:00

Bob Gainey has done a lot of things well. He selected Carey Price over Gilbert Brule in 2005, a move widely criticized at that time. He also managed to pick up Guillaume Latendresse in the 2nd round that year. Selecting Ryan McDonagh, despite the pressure to pick up local boy select Angelo Esposito seems to have turned out well, at least in early stages. The move to let Souray walk, while signing Hamerlik seems to have paid dividends one year later. He did a good job assembling good young talent, enough so to lead the Habs to a Conference title in 2007-2008.

But Bob Gainey may have singlehandedly killed the Montreal Canadiens Stanley Cup push.

By trading the Habs number one goaltender, Cristobal Huet, at the trade deadline for a mere 2009 second round draft pick.

Ugly, ugly, ugly!

The deal has all the writings of a seller, not a buyer. I told my good friend then, a die-hard Habs fan, that I didn't like this deal. I don't like it now either.

One can already legitimately argue the Habs should have been more aggressive in the Marian Hossa sweepstakes, who went for 2 depth players, 1 bottom four first round draft pick, and a sinking prospect. However, other sides can legitimately counter this opinion.

I don't believe anyone can however, defend the Huet deal.

He was the Habs number one goalie, who played 39 games, posting a very respectable .916 SV%. In Washington, he posted a remarkable .936 SV% in 13 regular season games, and an .909 SV% in 7 playoff games.

EVEN if the Habs wished to throw a 20 year old Carey Price to the wolves, it would have made sense to keep the insurance policy intact.

They didn't. Jaroslav Halak is NOT a respectable insurance policy.

And now, the Habs are swimming in their own tears.

It didn't have to turn out this way.

Bob Gainey should legitimately feel the heat this summer.

"You know what it takes to sell real estate?"

2008-04-30T16:26:00.004-06:00

Above: Montreal Canadiens coach Guy Carbonneau.

Facing the possibility of going down 3-1 to the Flyers tonight, Carbonneau is replacing 20 year-old wunderkind Carey Price between the pipes with backup Jaroslav Halak. This takes balls. With the deadline day deal of veteran Christobal Huet, Price was officially anointed the Habs' goalie of today. His play in helping the Canadiens to a first place finish in the East seemed to justify that decision, but Price has been erratic in the post season and downright gawdawful in two straight losses to the Flyers. Halak has played all of 6 games with the big club this year and has all of 19 minutes of playoff experience.

I like these types of high risk/high reward moves. It's not like the playoffs give struggling players (especially starting goaltenders) a lot of chances to play through a funk. And if the Habs continue to outshoot and outchance the Flyers the way they have in the last two games, then Halak will just have to be good enough.

Go Habs.

Really? No, REALLY?

2008-04-28T22:44:00.003-06:00

Ugly.

Well, he is, and there, I said it.

What else is he though? For some, unfathomable reason, Dion Phaneuf is a Norris candidate. Why? Well, honestly, I don't know. I cannot find a single reason why he should be a Norris candidate, besides the fact that he was on the ice a lot, has a good slapshot, and is a physical hockey player.

That's it. Problem is, the all the tools in the world don't make you a Norris defenseman if you don't have the toolbox, and as was said in a Calgary Sun article, and voted on by NHL players, Dion Phaneuf is one of the most over-rated players in the NHL.

But, in fairness, lets try to first make a list of things we would expect from a Norris caliber defenseman. We would reasonably expect that he can play at both ends of the ice, and in all situations, and excel. That means EV, PK and PP. We expect that he would constantly play the other teams best players, especially at home, and out-play them. We expect he would be called "complete" and make the other players around him better, instead of victimized.

Does all of this seem reasonable so far? As far as I can tell, this is what I would expect of a Norris defenseman. A Lidstrom, Pronger, Timonen, Gonchar, etc.

Lets take a look at Phaneuf now, shall we?

5v5.

The Flames played 5 home games against San Jose, 4 against Colorado, 4 against Minnesota, 2 against Detroit, 2 against Anaheim, 2 against Dallas, and 2 against Nashville. The highest scoring player on each of these teams was: Joe Thornton, Paul Stastny, Marian Gaborik, Pavel Datsyuk, Ryan Getzlaf, Mike Ribeiro and JP Dumont.

In these 21 games*, Dion Phaneuf played a whopping 359.1 minutes, equal to 17.1 ES minutes a game. Yet, against the top scorers on each team, he played a combined, get ready for this, all of 115.1. That's not even 1/3 of his ice time. This was at home. With Keenan having last change.

Worse yet? How did he fair against these players?

+3/-9.

Lit up. Like a Christmas tree.

But hey, he had that dominating physical play right? That makes up for it? Well, sure, if you want to consider the fact that he lead the league in minor penalties with 60, and the Flames were more likely to go to the PK than the PP with Phaneuf on the ice. Did he put up some nice counting stats? Absolutely. But not against anyone whose name we know. And I'm pretty sure, that should be an important criteria when deciding if a guy is a top defenseman or not, should it not be?

I won't comment on his PP ability - I think he's one of the better triger men in the league.

However, his PK ability, another important facet of the game, is yet another problem for 'the Dion.' A quick look at behindthenet.ca shows he played a lot on the PK, about 2 and a half minutes a game, and was the third most often used defenseman in Calgary on the PK. So, he was second unit on the PK, and, once again, likely saw softer competition on the PK. So his PK numbers should rock, correct?

Well. Not really.

When Phaneuf was on the ice, the Flames were scored on about 7.15 times every 60 minutes. When Phaneuf was off the ice, the Flames were scored on about 6.13 times every 60 minutes.

In other words, when he killed penalties, the puck ended up in his net more often than when he rode the pine.

So... my question is, how on Earth is he a Norris Nominee? Anyone? Are the MSM writers really THIS dumb that they couldn't notice that A) he was being sheltered B) he got lit up when he wasn't sheltered and C) he can't play defense to save his life?

*During two of these games, one against Minny and one against Colorado, the offensive star was injured, so I took the second leading scorer in each case - Bouchard, and Brunette, for that specific game.

What Goes Around...Comes Around

2008-04-24T19:19:00.008-06:00

Agent Ritch Winter was on Bob Stauffer's show today. He accused Kevin Lowe as being a hypocrite with respect to his recent comments on new Canucks GM, Mike Gillis, who allegedly "screwed" the Oilers in the Michael Nylander saga.

The reasoning? Kevin Lowe pulled a similar stunt to Bryan Murray, then GM of the Anaheim ducks. Murray, Comrie, Winter had all believed a deal was complete, before Lowe came out and asked 2.5M from Mike Comrie. I recall later that day, Lowe laughed with a smirk on his face, "Well, I've always been told if I want something...I have to ask."

Hard to disagree with Ritch Winter (profile can be seen here - thanks to DSF from HF for the link).

Vancouver, Anaheim, Buffalo, Calgary, Ottawa. That's 17.25% of the league the Oilers may not be able to deal with as long as Kevin Lowe is the GM.

Will Lowe stop the bleeding? Does Winter have a legitimate point?

Dan Blackburn

2008-04-23T21:10:00.003-06:00

The Montreal, Quebec native was drafted 10th overall back in 2001. Voted as the CHL's top goaltender for the 2000-2001 season.

As an 18 year old, he was pressed into action due to injuries, and managed to stay on his two feet, playing 31 games and posting a .898 SV%.

Did he have a strong future ahead of him?

There are reasons to believe he would have, but unfortunately, we'll never know.

That is because he suffered a significant left shoulder injury during a weight training session. He pressed a try-out with the Victoria Salmon Kings of the ECHL - playing with two blockers instead of the conventional glove and blocker combo.

Mirtle interviewed Dan Blackburn during this stint. Dan was eager to see how it played out.

Unfortunately, he lasted only 12 games.

Where is this once promising man, now 24, today?

His current life includes a home in Dallas, a job in hockey - he's manager of business development for Goaltender Development Institute (GDIhockey.com) - and, somehow, no sorrow in his heart.

"No, it's not bittersweet," Blackburn says. "You know what? I don't really miss it anymore - it's been such a long time. It was a chapter of my life and I'm on to the next. I'm happy for all the guys that do well. It's good to see (Leclaire) having a successful year."

"I don't have any regrets at all about what transpired or the way things happened for me," says Blackburn, who played two full seasons - 2001-02, 2002-03 - for the Blueshirts. "I really enjoy what I do now in the business world."

"From my point of view, I was really fortunate, even though I was only there for a couple of years.

"It really set up the rest of my life for all the things that I want to do, from there on out."

Hurtling himself into life after hockey - buoyed by a reported $6-million insurance payout - Blackburn enrolled at Arizona State University.

He's in good shape. In good health.

And happy.

What else can you ask for?

Cheat Sheet

2008-04-23T13:49:00.008-06:00

*Click on font to read cheat sheet material*

This is the front page of my "Cheat sheet" for a University Finance class. The flip side of the page was equally busy, with numerous examples. You have to take advantage of every opportunity you are provided.

That being said, I never understood and agreed with the logic of cheat sheet in exams - especially when you put examples that are nearly identical to the questions being asked on exams.

Of course you still have to know your material - and all members of the class are given the same opportunity to write in extremely small font - but it's also an item that provides the less prepared a marginal advantage over those who are more prepared.

And whatever happened to the conventional formula sheet? All Finance classes and nowadays, even some accounting classes, allow one the opportunity of double sided cheat sheets - is this a new trend?

Any 'old-timers' want to shed some light?

In other news, I came across this great site

http://www.sportscliche.com/