tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post5916826163180657169..comments2023-09-16T09:39:54.266-06:00Comments on Oilgasm: LONG TERM CONTRACTS - Part II [Goaltenders - Mathieu Garon]Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post-89740427598580597622008-07-30T16:09:00.000-06:002008-07-30T16:09:00.000-06:00I'm not especially fond of it either. Still, Back...I'm not especially fond of it either. Still, Backstrom is probably the only guy that you could confidently say is above average. I don't think Garon is in that group.<BR/><BR/>Over a two or three year period I'm not convinced that Garon could or even should outperform Thomas, Norrena, Conklin, LaBarbera, Legace, Gerber, Biron, Nittymaki and Tellqvist. <BR/><BR/>If Garon won't come down to 2.5M it seems like you could pick up a guy like LaBarbera on the cheap and the difference in expected performance wouldn't be much.Scott Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05735545121522530577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post-9567573105891803862008-07-28T14:08:00.000-06:002008-07-28T14:08:00.000-06:00If he'll do it, that's great. If not, move on to s...<I>If he'll do it, that's great. If not, move on to somebody else.</I><BR/><BR/>Good analysis Scott. <BR/><BR/>I believe the key is ensuring, if extended, the contract is not untradeable at inception.<BR/><BR/>I believe Garon can provide league average goaltending, with above-average results in the shoot-out. Paying him upwards to 3M would not be a problem with me. I wonder though, if he has another solid season and decides to head into free agency, who do the Oilers replace him with?<BR/><BR/>I'm especially not fond of the UFA class next year, other than Backstrom.PunjabiOilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00088226953507404268noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post-17310081761522544542008-07-28T10:30:00.000-06:002008-07-28T10:30:00.000-06:00I think one needs to look at what the market has b...I think one needs to look at what the market has been giving for these goalies.<BR/><BR/>First off, a six-year deal for a goalie who has shifted between backup and starter seems like a poor idea. Garon finished 17th overall in save percentage last year. That's nothing special. Certainly not worth an investment that would make him the starting goalie for the next five or six years. And it was his best season.<BR/><BR/>I would describe Garon as a goalie that has yet fully established himself as an NHL starter. He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of his current contract. If the Oilers are interested in signing him to be their starter the following goalies were in similar situations and were signed in the last two years:<BR/><BR/>Chris Osgood - 1.417M for 3 yrs.<BR/>Dan Ellis - 1.75M for 2 yrs.<BR/>Manny Legace - 2.15M for 2 yrs.<BR/>Mike Smith - 2.2M for 2 yrs.<BR/>Chris Mason - 3M for 2 yrs.<BR/>Martin Biron - 3.5M for 2 yrs.<BR/>Vesa Toskala - 4M for 2 yrs.<BR/>Ilya Bryzgalov - 4.25M for 2 yrs.<BR/><BR/>Big differnce in price, but probably not a particularly big difference in performance over the next six years. The average price is 2.783M over 2 or 3 years. In my opinion, it should be pretty easy to get someone of Garon's quality to sign for around 2.5M for the next two or three years. If he'll do it, that's great. If not, move on to somebody else.Scott Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05735545121522530577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post-13417679395528630192008-07-27T13:21:00.000-06:002008-07-27T13:21:00.000-06:00Lots of goalies out there next summer. I like Garo...Lots of goalies out there next summer. I like Garon but I think they needn't overpay. If he has a good season - 3 for 10.5 is doable I think.Black Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03583346651230552519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post-89868599281939480192008-07-25T22:54:00.000-06:002008-07-25T22:54:00.000-06:00I wait till January 1st, and go from there. If he...I wait till January 1st, and go from there. If he proves to be average, I think I'd set $10,000,000/3 years as my high water mark.... basically the Roloson contract.PDOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05659921012095646002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post-60068625053408902102008-07-25T11:08:00.000-06:002008-07-25T11:08:00.000-06:00I don't like the idea of a long-term contract for ...I don't like the idea of a long-term contract for Garon at this point in time, because he's never showed the ability at any level to handle 60+ games. 2-year contract, 6-7 million.Jonathan Willishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13939434026697781276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post-82179010353346723332008-07-25T10:26:00.000-06:002008-07-25T10:26:00.000-06:00Who represents Garon? I would maybe scale it back ...Who represents Garon? I would maybe scale it back a bit in years and give him 3 years at Penner money (4.25).jdrevengehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13916498385649334194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32751664.post-56056804358909690612008-07-25T09:54:00.000-06:002008-07-25T09:54:00.000-06:006 yrs/$20.25m... which takes him to 35 years old. ...6 yrs/$20.25m... which takes him to 35 years old. <BR/>If i'm Klowe, I do this, and if I do this its because I've made up my mind to trade Roli and go with Garon on JDD.<BR/>If I'm Garon... I don't know what I'd do...I've never understood goalies. I guess he'd take it since, based on his first few years in the league, it would have been a long shot to get a guaranteed $20mil.Kishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04039590232262580706noreply@blogger.com