From a recent Jim Matheson article:
Cross their fingers -- The Islanders are on track for the league's worst record and a shot at centre John Tavares, the world junior hockey championship MVP. They'll have to be lucky, though, because finishing dead last only gives them a 25-per-cent chance of coming up first in the bingo-ball draft lottery.
As all non-playoff teams (14 in total) are entered in the lottery, and the fact each team can move up only four spots, the Islanders will have approximately a 50% chance in obtaining the rights to John Tavares.